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OECD releases report on US economy – live coverage OECD warns US on unemployment and unbalanced tax policies
(40 minutes later)
5pm: Finally, there in fact some primaries tonight – with two of note.
One of those is in Utah, where veteran senator Orrin Hatch is expected to win the Republican primary for the seat he's held for 30 years or so, facing a modest challenge from a Tea Party-backed candidate, Dan Liljenquist, who is less than half Hatch's age.
The other is in New York, where 82-year-old Democratic congressman Charlie Rangel faces a field of challengers for his once rock-solid seat. Again, Rangel is likely to win but since his brushes with ethics violations a couple of years ago he isn't the force he once was.
Hatch losing would be quite an upset and a fillup for the Tea Party types, but a Rangel loss would provoke an outpouring of political obituaries.
4.30pm: So who was the mysterious Republican senator who attached a "right to life" rider onto the new flood insurance bill going through the Senate? Step forward Rand Paul.4.30pm: So who was the mysterious Republican senator who attached a "right to life" rider onto the new flood insurance bill going through the Senate? Step forward Rand Paul.
The Hill reports:The Hill reports:
The Senate is working on a bill, S.1940, that would reauthorize the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) for five years, and reform it to allow the nation's only flood insurer to increase premiums so the program can work its way out of a nearly $18bn deficit. The program expires at the end of July.The Senate is working on a bill, S.1940, that would reauthorize the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) for five years, and reform it to allow the nation's only flood insurer to increase premiums so the program can work its way out of a nearly $18bn deficit. The program expires at the end of July.
Senators are working on an agreement on which amendments to the bill might come up. Paul's amendment, introduced on Monday, is called the Life at Conception Act, and would "ensure equal protection for right to life of each born and preborn human person".Senators are working on an agreement on which amendments to the bill might come up. Paul's amendment, introduced on Monday, is called the Life at Conception Act, and would "ensure equal protection for right to life of each born and preborn human person".
4pm: In case you missed it, my colleagues Ewen MacAskill and Dominic Rushe give their assessment of the OECD economic survey today, saying it backed plans to increase taxes to help solve the US's fiscal problems:4pm: In case you missed it, my colleagues Ewen MacAskill and Dominic Rushe give their assessment of the OECD economic survey today, saying it backed plans to increase taxes to help solve the US's fiscal problems:
Barack Obama's plan to end tax breaks for America's rich has been endorsed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Paris-based group of independent economists, in a report on the US published Tuesday.Barack Obama's plan to end tax breaks for America's rich has been endorsed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Paris-based group of independent economists, in a report on the US published Tuesday.
The 34-country group recommends ending the tax breaks for the wealthy introduced by George W Bush and which are strongly supported by Republicans. The issue could come to a head at the end of the year if Obama wins a second term.The 34-country group recommends ending the tax breaks for the wealthy introduced by George W Bush and which are strongly supported by Republicans. The issue could come to a head at the end of the year if Obama wins a second term.
The OECD, which produces reports every two years, says that the US recovery is gaining momentum but remains fragile, with the country facing problems such as record long-term unemployment, income inequality and lack of investment in education and innovation.The OECD, which produces reports every two years, says that the US recovery is gaining momentum but remains fragile, with the country facing problems such as record long-term unemployment, income inequality and lack of investment in education and innovation.
3.40pm: One of the bad news stories for the Democratic party in recent weeks has been the drip-drip-drip of candidates declaring that they won't be attending the party's national convention in Charlotte in September.3.40pm: One of the bad news stories for the Democratic party in recent weeks has been the drip-drip-drip of candidates declaring that they won't be attending the party's national convention in Charlotte in September.
The most high profile of these to say they aren't showing up is Senator Claire McCaskill, facing a tough re-election fight in Missouri. That's something of a surprise, although given that Obama isn't likely to do well in Missouri it makes sense.The most high profile of these to say they aren't showing up is Senator Claire McCaskill, facing a tough re-election fight in Missouri. That's something of a surprise, although given that Obama isn't likely to do well in Missouri it makes sense.
Senators Jon Tester of Montana and Joe Manchin of West Virginia are the other senators who find themselves too busy to make the trip.Senators Jon Tester of Montana and Joe Manchin of West Virginia are the other senators who find themselves too busy to make the trip.
3.30pm: It turns out American voters think that Mitt Romney is likeable enough. They just don't like him as much as Barack Obama, according to a new Gallup poll.3.30pm: It turns out American voters think that Mitt Romney is likeable enough. They just don't like him as much as Barack Obama, according to a new Gallup poll.
Some 81% of those polled named "likability" as Obama's top trait, compared with 64% for Romney.Some 81% of those polled named "likability" as Obama's top trait, compared with 64% for Romney.
Obama clearly has the advantage in terms of likability and empathy. Since neither candidate currently has an advantage in leadership, Romney's best argument for convincing voters to support him may be his ability to manage government.Obama clearly has the advantage in terms of likability and empathy. Since neither candidate currently has an advantage in leadership, Romney's best argument for convincing voters to support him may be his ability to manage government.
Being able to manage government could be a particularly persuasive argument in an election year likely to be decided on economic issues. The downside for Romney is currently that is his only clear advantage over Obama in terms of personal qualities, so he would have little else to fall back on in that area.Being able to manage government could be a particularly persuasive argument in an election year likely to be decided on economic issues. The downside for Romney is currently that is his only clear advantage over Obama in terms of personal qualities, so he would have little else to fall back on in that area.
Unhappily, when asked who "had a clear plan for solving the country's problems," only 40% said Obama and 38% said Romney.Unhappily, when asked who "had a clear plan for solving the country's problems," only 40% said Obama and 38% said Romney.
3.20pm: Barack Obama has been out on the fundraising-campaign trail, speaking at a $500 a head event in Atlanta today.3.20pm: Barack Obama has been out on the fundraising-campaign trail, speaking at a $500 a head event in Atlanta today.
Once again he turned to attacking Mitt Romney's economic policies:Once again he turned to attacking Mitt Romney's economic policies:
His basic vision is one in which if wealthy investors like him, folks at the very top are freed up from any kind of regulations, if they are maximizing their profits, even if they are polluting more, or offshoring jobs or avoiding taxes or busting union, whatever the strategy is — if they are doing well, then everybody else is automatically doing well.His basic vision is one in which if wealthy investors like him, folks at the very top are freed up from any kind of regulations, if they are maximizing their profits, even if they are polluting more, or offshoring jobs or avoiding taxes or busting union, whatever the strategy is — if they are doing well, then everybody else is automatically doing well.
3.04pm: Non-scandal of the day: in Boston last night at a campaign event, Barack Obama teased the locals about the trading of Boston Red Sox stalwart Kevin Youkilis to his own team, the Chicago White Sox.3.04pm: Non-scandal of the day: in Boston last night at a campaign event, Barack Obama teased the locals about the trading of Boston Red Sox stalwart Kevin Youkilis to his own team, the Chicago White Sox.
Who cares, right? AP reveals:Who cares, right? AP reveals:
Romney press secretary Andrea Saul led off by accusing Obama of having taunted Red Sox fans. She lumped it in with some of the most gut-wrenching setbacks in Red Sox history.Romney press secretary Andrea Saul led off by accusing Obama of having taunted Red Sox fans. She lumped it in with some of the most gut-wrenching setbacks in Red Sox history.
"Maybe the president should have congratulated the team for winning the World Series in 2004 and 2007," she wrote. "Instead, he chose to mock them for trading away one of its favorite players at a time when the team is struggling.""Maybe the president should have congratulated the team for winning the World Series in 2004 and 2007," she wrote. "Instead, he chose to mock them for trading away one of its favorite players at a time when the team is struggling."
(Actually, the team has a winning record and has won seven of its last 10 games.)(Actually, the team has a winning record and has won seven of its last 10 games.)
Pretty fantastic that Romney/GOP is making a campaign issue out of Obama not dropping his Chi-Sox pride and pandering to Red Sox fansPretty fantastic that Romney/GOP is making a campaign issue out of Obama not dropping his Chi-Sox pride and pandering to Red Sox fans
Really? Yes, really.Really? Yes, really.
2.45pm: So what's the supreme court doing all this time while we are waiting for its decision on healthcare reform? Not arguing but proofreading:2.45pm: So what's the supreme court doing all this time while we are waiting for its decision on healthcare reform? Not arguing but proofreading:
Several former clerks said that the Court's work has entered, or is just about to enter, the proofreading stage, when professional legal editors review the text to check for style and ensure that all the case citations are correct. The Supreme Court reporter's office, which performs these functions and writes a brief summary of each case called the "syllabus," typically takes a few days to ensure that all the t's are crossed and i's dotted before the opinion reaches the public.Several former clerks said that the Court's work has entered, or is just about to enter, the proofreading stage, when professional legal editors review the text to check for style and ensure that all the case citations are correct. The Supreme Court reporter's office, which performs these functions and writes a brief summary of each case called the "syllabus," typically takes a few days to ensure that all the t's are crossed and i's dotted before the opinion reaches the public.
2.31pm: A new poll in the Wall Street Journal on how voters feel about healthcare reform suggests that opinion is more mixed than many glibly assume:2.31pm: A new poll in the Wall Street Journal on how voters feel about healthcare reform suggests that opinion is more mixed than many glibly assume:
With the court's decision on the law set for Thursday, nearly four in 10 Americans told a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that they would have "mixed feelings" if the justices struck down the whole law. Just over a quarter said they would be very pleased, while 17% said they would be very disappointed by that outcome.With the court's decision on the law set for Thursday, nearly four in 10 Americans told a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that they would have "mixed feelings" if the justices struck down the whole law. Just over a quarter said they would be very pleased, while 17% said they would be very disappointed by that outcome.
While just over 40% say the law was a bad idea, 35% say it was a good idea. So there's not necessarily as much obvious mileage in the issue as some Republicans appear to believe there is.While just over 40% say the law was a bad idea, 35% say it was a good idea. So there's not necessarily as much obvious mileage in the issue as some Republicans appear to believe there is.
2.20pm: Mitt Romney was campaigning in Virginia today – and BuzzFeed Politics's McKay Coppins cleverly sees Romney previewing his lines of attacks depending on how the supreme court handles the healthcare reform decision on Thursday.2.20pm: Mitt Romney was campaigning in Virginia today – and BuzzFeed Politics's McKay Coppins cleverly sees Romney previewing his lines of attacks depending on how the supreme court handles the healthcare reform decision on Thursday.
Here's what Romney said:Here's what Romney said:
As you know, the Supreme Court is going to be dealing with whether or not Obamacare is Constitutional.As you know, the Supreme Court is going to be dealing with whether or not Obamacare is Constitutional.
If Obamacare is not deemed Constitutional, then the first three and a half years of his President's term will have been wasted on something that did not help the American people. If it is deemed to stand, then I'll tell you something, we're going to have to have a president, and I'm that one, that's going to get rid of Obamacare. We're going to stop it on day one.If Obamacare is not deemed Constitutional, then the first three and a half years of his President's term will have been wasted on something that did not help the American people. If it is deemed to stand, then I'll tell you something, we're going to have to have a president, and I'm that one, that's going to get rid of Obamacare. We're going to stop it on day one.
2pm: New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg has some strong opinions on the immigration debate:2pm: New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg has some strong opinions on the immigration debate:
Every day we let our antiquated #immigration policies stand is a day we send new innovations, companies, & #jobs abroad bit.ly/MPXYKCEvery day we let our antiquated #immigration policies stand is a day we send new innovations, companies, & #jobs abroad bit.ly/MPXYKC
The link is to a piece of research from Bloomberg's Partnership for a New American Economy "showing that 76% of patents from America's top 10 patent-generating universities in 2011 had a foreign-born inventor."The link is to a piece of research from Bloomberg's Partnership for a New American Economy "showing that 76% of patents from America's top 10 patent-generating universities in 2011 had a foreign-born inventor."
1.36pm: Mitt Romney's evasive positioning on the Arizona immigration law decision yesterday has earned him a deserved rebuke from conservative journalist Byron York at the Washington Examiner.1.36pm: Mitt Romney's evasive positioning on the Arizona immigration law decision yesterday has earned him a deserved rebuke from conservative journalist Byron York at the Washington Examiner.
York suggests that the unanimous decision by the supreme court to uphold Arizona's "show me your papers" provision means it could have been embraced by Romney at no cost:York suggests that the unanimous decision by the supreme court to uphold Arizona's "show me your papers" provision means it could have been embraced by Romney at no cost:
Perhaps Romney was just exercising his legendary caution. But if Scalia and Sotomayor can agree on something, what would be the risk in Romney agreeing with it, too?Perhaps Romney was just exercising his legendary caution. But if Scalia and Sotomayor can agree on something, what would be the risk in Romney agreeing with it, too?
Though it touched on many questions, the political fight over the Arizona immigration law focused on a very specific issue: Should police who have stopped a person for some legitimate reason then check that person's status if they have reason to believe he or she might be in the country illegally? On Monday, Mitt Romney had the perfect opportunity to align himself with the conservative – and popular – side of the question and declined to take it.Though it touched on many questions, the political fight over the Arizona immigration law focused on a very specific issue: Should police who have stopped a person for some legitimate reason then check that person's status if they have reason to believe he or she might be in the country illegally? On Monday, Mitt Romney had the perfect opportunity to align himself with the conservative – and popular – side of the question and declined to take it.
1.18pm: Lukewarm endorsements for Mitt Romney continue to limp in like broken biscuits clustering at the bottom of a bag.1.18pm: Lukewarm endorsements for Mitt Romney continue to limp in like broken biscuits clustering at the bottom of a bag.
The latest is from the GOP's 1996 presidential candidate Bob Dole:The latest is from the GOP's 1996 presidential candidate Bob Dole:
Well, I'll say this: Romney looks like a president.Well, I'll say this: Romney looks like a president.
Yes Bob Dole but does Romney smell presidenty?Yes Bob Dole but does Romney smell presidenty?
1.08pm: The latest OECD survey also suggested that long term unemployment in the US is proving to be persistent and is making the US economy less flexible than previously.1.08pm: The latest OECD survey also suggested that long term unemployment in the US is proving to be persistent and is making the US economy less flexible than previously.
Its latest survey suggests structural unemployment in the US has now risen to 2% of the workforce, and the unemployment level at which the economy can grow without sparking inflation has risen to 6%.Its latest survey suggests structural unemployment in the US has now risen to 2% of the workforce, and the unemployment level at which the economy can grow without sparking inflation has risen to 6%.
Reuters reports on the OECD's press conference:Reuters reports on the OECD's press conference:
While the US central bank has slashed overnight lending rates to near zero and pumped about $2.3tn into the economy through asset purchases, the unemployment rate has stubbornly held above 8% for more than two years, the first time this has happened since the Great Depression.While the US central bank has slashed overnight lending rates to near zero and pumped about $2.3tn into the economy through asset purchases, the unemployment rate has stubbornly held above 8% for more than two years, the first time this has happened since the Great Depression.
"We still have a good bit of cyclical unemployment, which is best addressed by supporting aggregate demand," Wendy Dunn, the OECD's economist for the United States, told reporters."We still have a good bit of cyclical unemployment, which is best addressed by supporting aggregate demand," Wendy Dunn, the OECD's economist for the United States, told reporters.
The 34-nation OECD called for the development of programs that would facilitate the return to work for many unemployed individuals and mitigate the risk of long-term unemployment becoming structural.The 34-nation OECD called for the development of programs that would facilitate the return to work for many unemployed individuals and mitigate the risk of long-term unemployment becoming structural.
"Education and training are key to improving skills, (and) reducing mismatches" between employer needs and workforce skills," the OECD said.
It would also help the country to address income inequality, the fourth highest in the OECD, it said.		"Education and training are key to improving skills, (and) reducing mismatches" between employer needs and workforce skills," the OECD said.
It would also help the country to address income inequality, the fourth highest in the OECD, it said.
1.02pm: Another high point in the annals of Congress: the senator who tried to tack an abortion-related amendment onto a bill on flood insurance. Via Politico:1.02pm: Another high point in the annals of Congress: the senator who tried to tack an abortion-related amendment onto a bill on flood insurance. Via Politico:
The Senate's flood insurance program looked like it was headed toward smooth passage – but now, there appears to be an abortion-related wrinkle.The Senate's flood insurance program looked like it was headed toward smooth passage – but now, there appears to be an abortion-related wrinkle.
Yes, abortion.Yes, abortion.
That's at least according to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who said Tuesday that a Republican senator – whom he did not name – is insisting on a vote on an amendment defining "when life begins."That's at least according to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who said Tuesday that a Republican senator – whom he did not name – is insisting on a vote on an amendment defining "when life begins."
"I think some of this stuff is just – I have been very patient working with my Republican colleagues in allowing relevant amendments on issues, and sometimes we even do non-relevant amendments," Reid said. "But really, on flood insurance?""I think some of this stuff is just – I have been very patient working with my Republican colleagues in allowing relevant amendments on issues, and sometimes we even do non-relevant amendments," Reid said. "But really, on flood insurance?"
12.42pm: The Guardian's polling wunderkind Harry Enten is holding an "I Am A" on Reddit today – so feel free to cruise over and ask him anything from 3pm ET:12.42pm: The Guardian's polling wunderkind Harry Enten is holding an "I Am A" on Reddit today – so feel free to cruise over and ask him anything from 3pm ET:
I'd be happy to answer questions on the polling surrounding healthcare (though I'm not an expert on the legislation itself). I'd also be more than glad to delve into polling about 2012 election, weather, or about being a Bronxite in an office of Brits. I'll be in this thread from 3pm ET to 4pm ET today.I'd be happy to answer questions on the polling surrounding healthcare (though I'm not an expert on the legislation itself). I'd also be more than glad to delve into polling about 2012 election, weather, or about being a Bronxite in an office of Brits. I'll be in this thread from 3pm ET to 4pm ET today.
12.15pm: Joe Biden is pulling out all the stops in Waterloo, Iowa this morning, lashing Mitt Romney's business and financial record. From the vice president's prepared text:12.15pm: Joe Biden is pulling out all the stops in Waterloo, Iowa this morning, lashing Mitt Romney's business and financial record. From the vice president's prepared text:
Romney called the President 'out of touch' for encouraging young people – you – to try to get manufacturing jobs.Romney called the President 'out of touch' for encouraging young people – you – to try to get manufacturing jobs.
Out of touch?Out of touch?
A prospective president with a Swiss bank account and a retirement account in the Cayman Islands. Anyone here have a Swiss bank account? Did you ever think the nominee of a major political party running for president would have a Swiss bank account? Talk about out of touch.A prospective president with a Swiss bank account and a retirement account in the Cayman Islands. Anyone here have a Swiss bank account? Did you ever think the nominee of a major political party running for president would have a Swiss bank account? Talk about out of touch.
12.05pm: A novel fundraising pitch arrives from Barack Obama via email to his supporters today, with a striking top line: "I will be the first president in modern history to be outspent in his re-election campaign, if things continue as they have so far."12.05pm: A novel fundraising pitch arrives from Barack Obama via email to his supporters today, with a striking top line: "I will be the first president in modern history to be outspent in his re-election campaign, if things continue as they have so far."
The email continues:The email continues:
I'm not just talking about the super PACs and anonymous outside groups – I'm talking about the Romney campaign itself. Those outside groups just add even more to the underlying problem.I'm not just talking about the super PACs and anonymous outside groups – I'm talking about the Romney campaign itself. Those outside groups just add even more to the underlying problem.
The Romney campaign raises more than we do, and the math isn't hard to understand: Through the primaries, we raised almost three-quarters of our money from donors giving less than $1,000, while Mitt Romney's campaign raised more than three-quarters of its money from individuals giving $1,000 or more.The Romney campaign raises more than we do, and the math isn't hard to understand: Through the primaries, we raised almost three-quarters of our money from donors giving less than $1,000, while Mitt Romney's campaign raised more than three-quarters of its money from individuals giving $1,000 or more.
And, again, that's not including the massive outside spending by super PACs and front groups funneling up to an additional billion dollars into ads trashing me, you, and everything we believe in.And, again, that's not including the massive outside spending by super PACs and front groups funneling up to an additional billion dollars into ads trashing me, you, and everything we believe in.
We can be outspent and still win – but we can't be outspent 10 to 1 and still win.We can be outspent and still win – but we can't be outspent 10 to 1 and still win.
There follows an invitation to donate as little as $3 to the Obama campaign and go in a draw to win a "grassroots dinner" with himself and Michelle Obama.There follows an invitation to donate as little as $3 to the Obama campaign and go in a draw to win a "grassroots dinner" with himself and Michelle Obama.
The urgent tone comes after Romney and the GOP raised more than $76m last month, compared to $60m by Obama and the Democratic party.The urgent tone comes after Romney and the GOP raised more than $76m last month, compared to $60m by Obama and the Democratic party.
11.50am: Vice president Joe Biden gets in a zinger aimed at Mitt Romney's record as an out-sourcing off-shorer of jobs:11.50am: Vice president Joe Biden gets in a zinger aimed at Mitt Romney's record as an out-sourcing off-shorer of jobs:
Biden in Iowa today: "Give Mitt Romney credit:He is a job creator.In Singapore.And China.And India."Biden in Iowa today: "Give Mitt Romney credit:He is a job creator.In Singapore.And China.And India."
That was in Waterloo, Iowa, this morning.That was in Waterloo, Iowa, this morning.
11.37am: The fallout from yesterday's supreme court ruling on Arizona's controversial immigration law continues – and what do the Republican party's two Hispanic governors of western states think?11.37am: The fallout from yesterday's supreme court ruling on Arizona's controversial immigration law continues – and what do the Republican party's two Hispanic governors of western states think?
Interestingly, both Brian Sandoval of Nevada and Susana Martinez of New Mexico both rejected Arizona's approach in their own states.Interestingly, both Brian Sandoval of Nevada and Susana Martinez of New Mexico both rejected Arizona's approach in their own states.
Sandoval's statement:Sandoval's statement:
While I have always supported Arizona's tenth amendment right to enact laws to address its unique concerns with public safety and have said all along the law is not needed in Nevada, I understand and respect the Supreme Court's application of the Supremacy Clause. This decision makes it clear that the President and Congress must come together and reform our immigration system.While I have always supported Arizona's tenth amendment right to enact laws to address its unique concerns with public safety and have said all along the law is not needed in Nevada, I understand and respect the Supreme Court's application of the Supremacy Clause. This decision makes it clear that the President and Congress must come together and reform our immigration system.
Martinez's statement:Martinez's statement:
I have always maintained that immigration reform should take place at the federal level, and that is consistent with the Supreme Court ruling today. While I never supported an Arizona-style law in New Mexico, I understand the frustration felt by Arizonans, given the federal government's failure to address the immigration issue.I have always maintained that immigration reform should take place at the federal level, and that is consistent with the Supreme Court ruling today. While I never supported an Arizona-style law in New Mexico, I understand the frustration felt by Arizonans, given the federal government's failure to address the immigration issue.
In New Mexico, we have tackled public-safety issues relating to border security in responsible ways, such as ending the sanctuary state policy that prevented state police from checking the immigration status of those arrested for crimes, and seeking to repeal the law that gives driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.In New Mexico, we have tackled public-safety issues relating to border security in responsible ways, such as ending the sanctuary state policy that prevented state police from checking the immigration status of those arrested for crimes, and seeking to repeal the law that gives driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.
11.15am: The OECD economic survey does contain some qualified backing for the Affordable Care Act – aka Obamacare – for its help in containing government healthcare spending.11.15am: The OECD economic survey does contain some qualified backing for the Affordable Care Act – aka Obamacare – for its help in containing government healthcare spending.
It suggests upping the Medicare entitlement age upwards – but warns that an Obamacare-style measure will be needed to cover the gap between employment-provided health insurance:It suggests upping the Medicare entitlement age upwards – but warns that an Obamacare-style measure will be needed to cover the gap between employment-provided health insurance:
In the medium to long term, the greatest challenge to fiscal sustainability comes from the federal health-care programmes. The CBO currently projects that federal health spending will grow by almost 2 percentage points of GDP over the next decade from this year's level of 5.5% of GDP, with further significant increases in prospect beyond then. The key driver over the coming decade is population ageing; beyond that, it is growth in expenditure per enrolee. The Affordable Care Act offers hope that cost growth can be permanently reduced, although there is much uncertainty about how effective it will be.In the medium to long term, the greatest challenge to fiscal sustainability comes from the federal health-care programmes. The CBO currently projects that federal health spending will grow by almost 2 percentage points of GDP over the next decade from this year's level of 5.5% of GDP, with further significant increases in prospect beyond then. The key driver over the coming decade is population ageing; beyond that, it is growth in expenditure per enrolee. The Affordable Care Act offers hope that cost growth can be permanently reduced, although there is much uncertainty about how effective it will be.
The Medicare Trustees estimate that reforms foreseen in the Act will
reduce annual average growth in Medicare spending per enrolee by 1.3% over the coming decade. If this proves not to be possible, policymakers will need to take further measures. One possibility in this regard would be to align the age of entitlement to Medicare benefits to the age of entitlement to social security benefits, although mechanisms (such as those in the Affordable Care Act) would need to be available to provide access to affordable health insurance for persons who are retired, and no longer covered by employment-based insurance, but not yet old enough to be eligible for Medicare.		The Medicare Trustees estimate that reforms foreseen in the Act will
reduce annual average growth in Medicare spending per enrolee by 1.3% over the coming decade. If this proves not to be possible, policymakers will need to take further measures. One possibility in this regard would be to align the age of entitlement to Medicare benefits to the age of entitlement to social security benefits, although mechanisms (such as those in the Affordable Care Act) would need to be available to provide access to affordable health insurance for persons who are retired, and no longer covered by employment-based insurance, but not yet old enough to be eligible for Medicare.
11am: The OECD says the US "should do more to foster innovation and provide more equitable access to high-quality education in order to maintain its status as the world's most vibrant and productive economy," in its latest economic survey.11am: The OECD says the US "should do more to foster innovation and provide more equitable access to high-quality education in order to maintain its status as the world's most vibrant and productive economy," in its latest economic survey.
The OECD argues that the United States is losing its cutting edge in innovation, saying "US companies are no longer more likely to innovate than companies in other OECD countries" and blames weakening education policies:The OECD argues that the United States is losing its cutting edge in innovation, saying "US companies are no longer more likely to innovate than companies in other OECD countries" and blames weakening education policies:
Particularly worrying is the performance in education, which is essential to provide workers with the skills necessary to become more productive and to adapt to technological change. Attainment in tertiary education stagnated over the past three decades while it grew significantly in almost every other OECD country. Today, 22 out of 30 OECD countries have more graduates in science and engineering among the 25 to 34 year old workers than the United States.Particularly worrying is the performance in education, which is essential to provide workers with the skills necessary to become more productive and to adapt to technological change. Attainment in tertiary education stagnated over the past three decades while it grew significantly in almost every other OECD country. Today, 22 out of 30 OECD countries have more graduates in science and engineering among the 25 to 34 year old workers than the United States.
"The United States is still one of the most innovative economies in the world but competition is growing and we need better policies to keep the US at the frontiers of innovation", said OECD Deputy Secretary-General Richard Boucher."The United States is still one of the most innovative economies in the world but competition is growing and we need better policies to keep the US at the frontiers of innovation", said OECD Deputy Secretary-General Richard Boucher.
10.48am: Some actual good economic news: house prices are continuing their recovery nationally, something that will eventually lift a big burden off the US economy and households.10.48am: Some actual good economic news: house prices are continuing their recovery nationally, something that will eventually lift a big burden off the US economy and households.
The S&P/Case Shiller index of single-family home prices in 20 metropolitan areas was up 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, the third month in a row the index has risen.The S&P/Case Shiller index of single-family home prices in 20 metropolitan areas was up 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, the third month in a row the index has risen.
Just three out of the 20 cities in the index saw price declines in April and prices were down 1.9% overall compared with 2011 – an improvement on earlier this year but still hampered by weak demand.Just three out of the 20 cities in the index saw price declines in April and prices were down 1.9% overall compared with 2011 – an improvement on earlier this year but still hampered by weak demand.
10.30am: Elsewhere in the US economy, the biggest market reaction has been to the latest Conference Board consumer confidence figures, which show sentiment falling for the fourth month in a row.10.30am: Elsewhere in the US economy, the biggest market reaction has been to the latest Conference Board consumer confidence figures, which show sentiment falling for the fourth month in a row.
That means "there will be little change in the pace of economic activity in the near-term," according to a statement from Conference Board.That means "there will be little change in the pace of economic activity in the near-term," according to a statement from Conference Board.
On labour market expectations, the survey's "jobs hard to get" category increased to 41.5% from 40.9% the month before, while "jobs plentiful" rose slightly to 7.8% from 7.5%.On labour market expectations, the survey's "jobs hard to get" category increased to 41.5% from 40.9% the month before, while "jobs plentiful" rose slightly to 7.8% from 7.5%.
10.18am: A quick look at the OECD economic forecasts for the US suggests little difference to the latest set of forecasts from the Federal Reserve, although the OECD estimates tend to be at the more optimistic end of the Fed's ranges.10.18am: A quick look at the OECD economic forecasts for the US suggests little difference to the latest set of forecasts from the Federal Reserve, although the OECD estimates tend to be at the more optimistic end of the Fed's ranges.
For example, the Fed's "central tendency" for the US GDP ranges from 1.9% to 2.4% in 2012, while the OECD forecasts growth of 2.4% this year, right at the high end of the Fed forecast. In 2013, the OECD expects growth of 2.6%, compared with the Fed's range of 2.2%-2.8%.For example, the Fed's "central tendency" for the US GDP ranges from 1.9% to 2.4% in 2012, while the OECD forecasts growth of 2.4% this year, right at the high end of the Fed forecast. In 2013, the OECD expects growth of 2.6%, compared with the Fed's range of 2.2%-2.8%.
In its breakdown of demand components, the OECD sees a slightly better outcome for government spending – for reasons that aren't entirely clear – balanced by slightly lower household spending.In its breakdown of demand components, the OECD sees a slightly better outcome for government spending – for reasons that aren't entirely clear – balanced by slightly lower household spending.
On the big numbers of inflation and unemployment, the OECD's stronger growth is reflected in higher inflation of 2.3% (higher energy costs) and 1.9% in 2013, compared with the Fed's range of 1.5% to 2% next year.On the big numbers of inflation and unemployment, the OECD's stronger growth is reflected in higher inflation of 2.3% (higher energy costs) and 1.9% in 2013, compared with the Fed's range of 1.5% to 2% next year.
The OECD forecasts unemployment falling from 8.1% by the end of this year to 7.6% at the end of 2013 – again more optimistic than the Fed's 7.5% to 8% range.The OECD forecasts unemployment falling from 8.1% by the end of this year to 7.6% at the end of 2013 – again more optimistic than the Fed's 7.5% to 8% range.
In summary, a slightly rosier picture but one very much in line with recent forecasts and so is unlikely to attract much attention on those grounds. And the unemployment figures in particular are not ones that offers enough for the White House start popping champagne corks.In summary, a slightly rosier picture but one very much in line with recent forecasts and so is unlikely to attract much attention on those grounds. And the unemployment figures in particular are not ones that offers enough for the White House start popping champagne corks.
10am: The OECD is about to release a report on the US economy. We'll have full details shortly. Meanwhile here's a summary of today's poltical developments from Ryan Devereaux.10am: The OECD is about to release a report on the US economy. We'll have full details shortly. Meanwhile here's a summary of today's poltical developments from Ryan Devereaux.
• The fallout from yesterday's supreme court rulings continues. Police in Arizona have expressed concern about the implications of putting into practice a requirement to check the immigration status of anyone they stop, whom they suspect is in the country illegally. This was the most controversial aspect of the state's immigration law, and was allowed to stand by the justices, even as they struck down other provisons. President Obama, who presided over the deportation of more undocumented immigrants in his first three years than his predecessor did in two terms, urged Arizona police not enforce the provision in a way that undermines civil rights.• The fallout from yesterday's supreme court rulings continues. Police in Arizona have expressed concern about the implications of putting into practice a requirement to check the immigration status of anyone they stop, whom they suspect is in the country illegally. This was the most controversial aspect of the state's immigration law, and was allowed to stand by the justices, even as they struck down other provisons. President Obama, who presided over the deportation of more undocumented immigrants in his first three years than his predecessor did in two terms, urged Arizona police not enforce the provision in a way that undermines civil rights.
• The Obama administration has launched three new ads branding Romney as "outsourcer in chief". The ads–which will be broadcast on televisions in Ohio, Virginia and Iowa–says "Romney's companies were pioneers at shipping US jobs overseas. Does Virginia really want an outsourcer-in-chief in the White House?"• The Obama administration has launched three new ads branding Romney as "outsourcer in chief". The ads–which will be broadcast on televisions in Ohio, Virginia and Iowa–says "Romney's companies were pioneers at shipping US jobs overseas. Does Virginia really want an outsourcer-in-chief in the White House?"
• The Obama administration is "disappointed" with the Supreme Court for striking down Montana's century-old law limiting the political spending of corporations. "We are disappointed that the Supreme Court did not take the opportunity presented by the Montana case to revisit its decision in Citizens United...In the aftermath of the Citizens United decision, we have seen unprecedented amounts of campaign spending, often by groups that won't disclose their donors," White House spokesman Eric Schultz said in a statement.• The Obama administration is "disappointed" with the Supreme Court for striking down Montana's century-old law limiting the political spending of corporations. "We are disappointed that the Supreme Court did not take the opportunity presented by the Montana case to revisit its decision in Citizens United...In the aftermath of the Citizens United decision, we have seen unprecedented amounts of campaign spending, often by groups that won't disclose their donors," White House spokesman Eric Schultz said in a statement.
• Pennsylvania's GOP House majority leader, Mike Turzai, is making headlines for comments he made regarding the state's strict new voter ID law. PoliticsPA.com reports that, while speaking at a Republican State Committee this weekend, Turzai said, "Pro-Second Amendment? The Castle Doctrine, it's done. First pro-life legislation – abortion facility regulations – in 22 years, done. Voter ID, which is going to allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania, done." Democrats criticsed Turzai for pursuing a "partisan agenda".• Pennsylvania's GOP House majority leader, Mike Turzai, is making headlines for comments he made regarding the state's strict new voter ID law. PoliticsPA.com reports that, while speaking at a Republican State Committee this weekend, Turzai said, "Pro-Second Amendment? The Castle Doctrine, it's done. First pro-life legislation – abortion facility regulations – in 22 years, done. Voter ID, which is going to allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania, done." Democrats criticsed Turzai for pursuing a "partisan agenda".