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Will Ukraine return to war? | |
(about 2 months later) | |
Pro-Russian rebels control broad swathes of eastern Ukraine and a fragile ceasefire with government forces could end at any time and return the region to deadly conflict. | |
Ukraine's Western allies accuse Russia of sending in troops and armour to help the rebels - an allegation repeatedly denied by the government in Moscow. | |
Some 4,000 people have already lost their lives in a crisis that few could see coming. | |
Why did fighting erupt in eastern Ukraine? | |
In April, pro-Russian activists seized control of government buildings in towns and cities across the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. | |
The events were a repeat of what had happened in Ukraine's Black Sea peninsula of Crimea. | |
Gunmen there seized government buildings in February and raised the Russian flag a week after elected President Viktor Yanukovych, friendly to Moscow, was toppled after massive pro-European street protests. | |
Russian politicians and media portrayed the Kiev leaders as Ukrainian nationalists bent on violating Russian-speakers' rights. | Russian politicians and media portrayed the Kiev leaders as Ukrainian nationalists bent on violating Russian-speakers' rights. |
A flawed referendum on joining Russia was quickly held in Crimea and within a month the peninsula's annexation was complete. | |
There was little bloodshed in Crimea but Ukraine's fledgling revolutionary government was in no position to fight back, with only 6,000 troops reportedly ready for combat. | |
However, when pro-Russian separatists made a move on Ukraine's industrial east and Russian forces appeared to be building up on the borders, the Kiev authorities ordered an "anti-terrorist operation". | |
What was the result of the war? | |
For several weeks, the pro-Russian separatists had the upper hand in an increasingly bloody conflict but the election of a new president, Petro Poroshenko, appeared to revive the armed forces and volunteer battalions. | |
An initial ceasefire failed in late June, and separatists were forced to pull out of key areas of northern Donetsk. By early August, Ukrainian forces were besieging the major cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. | |
But, amid reports that Russian irregulars and even servicemen were fighting inside Ukraine, the separatists recaptured Luhansk airport, regained ground and opened up a new front, driving towards Mariupol on the coast of the Sea of Azov. | |
A ceasefire was signed in Minsk, Belarus on 5 September and, despite repeated violations and hundreds more deaths, it is still nominally in force. | |
Ukraine's war: The human cost | |
Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 31 October | |
Can the ceasefire survive? | |
It is looking increasingly unlikely. Despite a lower intensity of violence and a succession of prisoner releases, both sides appear prepared for a resumption of the conflict, with reports of heavy artillery and fighters streaming into the region. | |
One rebel field commander has described the current truce as a strategic pause. | |
Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko has said a key plank of the ceasefire deal should be abandoned, namely the special status of partial autonomy granted to the rebel-held areas. | |
He has also called for Ukrainian forces to prepare their defences against a possible rebel attack in the cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov as well as the north-eastern city of Kharkiv and the region of Dnipropetrovsk to the west of Donetsk. | |
He was responding to what he called the 2 November "pseudo-elections" held in separatist parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Russia recognised but Ukraine and Western nations did not. | |
Mr Poroshenko said he was still committed to the Minsk peace plan but tensions after the vote are high. | |
What was the problem with the rebel elections? | |
Ukraine and the West insist that under the Minsk ceasefire deal a local poll would be held as part of the special status subsequently given to Donetsk and Luhansk by Ukraine's parliament. Legislation provided for elections on 7 December, not a month earlier and organised by the separatists themselves. | |
Russian President Vladimir Putin says that all they agreed to in Minsk was to hold elections "in co-ordination with, not in line with" Ukrainian election plans. | |
However, the vote on 2 November had echoes of disputed 11 May referendums, which prompted the rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk to declare independence. | |
Although the government in Moscow has recognised the 2 November poll, which confirmed Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky as the regions' leaders, it has also called for dialogue and an end to Ukraine's "anti-terror operation". | |
Is there anything the international community can do? | |
Part of the Minsk deal enabled a European observer team to monitor the ceasefire. However, their mission is under regular threat, and one of four monitoring drones came under rebel fire on 3 November. | |
For Europe's leaders, the 12-point truce deal is the only plan in town and the EU's foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini has said it will be "extremely difficult if not impossible to start again". | |
Perhaps the main question at the heart of this is whether or not Russia wants eastern Ukraine to be stable. | |
In the words of French President Francois Hollande: "The objective is to convince Moscow and the separatists to renounce escalation and return to a dialogue." | |
What does Russia want? | |
The Ukraine conflict has coincided with a sharp deterioration in relations between Russia and the West and the Kremlin has reacted angrily to sanctions imposed on a number of high-profile Russians for their role in the crisis. | |
But President Vladimir Putin's aims are unclear. He backed the Minsk peace deal and, after months of talks, Russia agreed a deal to resume gas supplies to Ukraine. | |
What is not known is whether Mr Putin is prepared for a resumption of hostilities. There is a widespread belief that he is looking at freezing the conflict, keeping Ukraine unstable as a means of maintaining the region in Russia's orbit. | |
While the Kremlin has repeatedly denied supplying troops and sophisticated military hardware to the rebels, Alexander Zakharchenko, the Donetsk rebel leader, said in August that 3-4,000 Russian citizens had been fighting alongside the rebels. | |
Although the numbers have declined, Ukrainian officials believe there is still a Russian military presence in the east. | |
One question that remains unanswered is whether Russia feels it needs a land corridor to Crimea. | |
Although a costly bridge or tunnel is due to be built from the mainland across the Kerch Strait to the peninsula, if the separatists were to capture Mariupol, that would pave the way for access further west along the coast to Crimea. | |
Aren't Russia's concerns legitimate? | |
Ukraine's geopolitical tug of war between the West and Russia all began in November 2013 when then-President Yanukovych pulled out of a deal on closer ties to the European Union at the last minute. | |
That decision and a subsequent deal with President Putin for cheaper Russian gas supplies sparked protests that ultimately brought Mr Yanukovych down. | |
So Russia, fearful of Nato reaching its borders, has concentrated on maintaining the regions with which it has closest ties in its orbit. | |
Ukraine is not in Nato but the alliance says member states can supply arms individually. Ukraine said in September that those deliveries had begun. | |
There were also unconfirmed reports that US military advisers had helped Ukraine in its major offensive against the rebels in July-August. |