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Ukraine crisis: Will war return? Ukraine conflict: Why is violence surging?
(3 months later)
Pro-Russian rebels control broad swathes of eastern Ukraine and a fragile ceasefire with government forces could end at any time and return the region to deadly conflict. Eastern Ukraine has seen a surge of violence, with both pro-Russian rebels and forces allied to Ukraine's government trying to seize more territory.
Ukraine's Western allies accuse Russia of sending in troops and armour to help the rebels - an allegation repeatedly denied by the government in Moscow. Western leaders speak of a last chance to clinch a ceasefire deal before the fighting spirals out of control.
Some 4,000 people have already lost their lives in a crisis that few saw coming. What has prompted the flare-up in a conflict that has cost more than 5,400 lives and few saw coming?
Why is eastern Ukraine on the verge of full-scale conflict again? Why has eastern Ukraine returned to full-scale conflict?
Fighting started in April and raged for months until Ukraine and the separatists came to a deal to halt the violence and free prisoners. Fighting started in April 2014 and raged for months until Ukraine and the separatists came to a deal on 5 September to halt the violence and free prisoners.
However, although the intensity of the conflict subsided, the clashes never really ended. A battle for control of Donetsk airport, currently in Ukrainian hands, has raged throughout. But the ceasefire never held entirely. Both sides used the relative lull to build up their forces and for months the rebels tried to seize Donetsk airport, a strategic and symbolic asset, from government forces.
When the rebels held their own local elections on 2 November, in defiance of the government in Kiev, both sides accused each other of tearing up the peace deal and a new surge of violence erupted. With the start of 2015, a new rebel push began and by 22 January the airport was in their hands.
Why did the fighting start? Donetsk airport - coveted prize
In April, pro-Russian activists seized control of government buildings in towns and cities across the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Violence has flared the length of the September ceasefire line and the casualties have mounted:
Ghost town captured by rebels
Is there any hope of a new ceasefire?
The best hope is a renewed deal in Minsk on 11 February, with talks between the leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia. The terms of the deal appear to be a revision of the failed 5 September ceasefire.
A previous attempt to renew the ceasefire failed on 31 September because some of the rebel negotiators did not turn up and those who did were not prepared to discuss a truce, international observers said.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin then put forward a proposal widely seen as unacceptable to Ukraine and the West. A new plan was proposed by the leaders of France and Germany on visits to Kiev and Moscow.
What is in the new ceasefire plan?
A broad demilitarised zone 50-70km (31-43 miles) wide, straddling the front line, and wider autonomy for the Russian-backed separatists are the main points of the plan.
But details have not been made public and sticking points will include:
Russia is thought to want Ukraine to pull its weapons back, but there are fears that the rebels, with backing from Moscow, could at some stage seize on such a withdrawal to grab more territory.
If no deal is reached, both sides have already announced plans to bolster their forces by tens of thousands. With spring on its way, the fear is that the conflict could escalate still further.
Ukraine's war: The human cost
Source: Figures from UN report, 6 February
Why did the September ceasefire break down?
Each side accused the other of tearing up the peace deal.
For the government, it was the rebels' decision to hold their own local elections in November 2014, in defiance of the Kiev authorities.
The separatists were then angered by the government decision to scrap the special status of their two regions, Donetsk and Luhansk.
Among the terms of the truce were a commitment to pull back heavy guns from the front line by at least 15km (9 miles), a release of prisoners and an agreement for international observers to monitor the truce and a buffer zone on the Ukrainian border with Russia.
Ukraine would also grant wider self-rule to Donetsk and Luhansk.
Both sides used the ceasefire to rearm, but the rebels now appear to have better quality tanks and weapons than the government.
The ceasefire that never was
Russia tests new weaponry in Ukraine
Who has the upper hand now?
The rebels certainly have made big gains, with the capture of Donetsk airport and advances around Debaltseve.
The airport gave them a strategic asset a few miles from the centre of Donetsk city, their biggest stronghold.
Even before the airport had been captured, Ukraine accused separatist forces of seizing more than 500 sq km (194 sq miles), mainly around Debaltseve and Mariupol.
Seizing Debaltseve would give the rebels far greater control of Donetsk and Luhansk.
But casualties on both sides have been heavy and journalists say the separatists have suffered major losses.
Ukrainian forces made significant gains last summer, many of which have not been reversed.
The separatists opened up a coastal front by the Sea of Azov before the September ceasefire, moving within range of the port city of Mariupol, but the ultranationalist pro-government Azov battalion recaptured some villages outside the city in early February.
Why did the fighting start in the first place?
In April 2014, pro-Russian activists seized control of government buildings in towns and cities across the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The events were a repeat of what had happened in Ukraine's Black Sea peninsula of Crimea.The events were a repeat of what had happened in Ukraine's Black Sea peninsula of Crimea.
Gunmen there seized government buildings in February and raised the Russian flag a week after elected President Viktor Yanukovych, friendly to Moscow, was toppled after massive pro-European Union street protests. Gunmen there seized government buildings in February 2014 and raised the Russian flag a week after elected President Viktor Yanukovych, friendly to Moscow, fled during massive pro-EU street protests in Kiev.
Russian politicians and media portrayed the Kiev leaders as Ukrainian nationalists bent on violating Russian-speakers' rights. An early attempt by nationalists to remove the status of Russian as a second language alarmed many Russian speakers, and officials in Moscow portrayed the new leaders in Kiev as US-backed Ukrainian nationalists bent on violating minority rights.
A flawed referendum on joining Russia was quickly held in Crimea and within a month the peninsula's annexation was complete.A flawed referendum on joining Russia was quickly held in Crimea and within a month the peninsula's annexation was complete.
There was little bloodshed in Crimea but Ukraine's fledgling revolutionary government was in no position to fight back, with only 6,000 troops reportedly ready for combat. There was little bloodshed in Crimea, but Ukraine's fledgling revolutionary government was in no position to fight back, with only 6,000 troops reportedly ready for combat.
However, when pro-Russian separatists made a move on Ukraine's industrial east and Russian forces appeared to be building up on the borders, the Kiev authorities ordered an "anti-terrorist operation". However, when pro-Russian separatists made a move on Ukraine's industrial east and Russian forces appeared to be building up on the borders, the authorities in Kiev ordered an "anti-terrorist operation".
What was the result of the war? What if the ceasefire bid fails?
For several weeks, the pro-Russian separatists had the upper hand in an increasingly bloody conflict but the election of a new President, Petro Poroshenko, appeared to revive the armed forces and volunteer battalions. It was France's President Francois Hollande who said the Minsk talks were one of the last chances for peace.
An initial ceasefire failed in late June, and separatists were forced to pull out of key areas of northern Donetsk. By early August, Ukrainian forces were besieging the major cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. If they fail, President Barack Obama has warned that the US would examine supplying Ukraine with "lethal defence" weapons such as anti-tank missiles, prompting Russia to warn that that would destabilise Ukraine.
But, amid reports that Russian irregulars and even servicemen were fighting inside Ukraine, the separatists recaptured Luhansk airport, regained ground and opened up a new front, driving towards Mariupol on the coast of the Sea of Azov. European countries including Poland are more reticent about sending more arms, but government forces have suffered in recent months from an influx of modern Russian tanks and weaponry. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied sending hardware or troops to help the rebels.
The Minsk ceasefire was signed on 5 September and, despite repeated violations and hundreds more deaths, it is still nominally in force. If the war becomes even more intense, there are fears that the rebels, backed by Russia, could push for more territory.
Ukraine's war: The human cost President Putin has revived the idea of "Novorossiya", a wider swathe of southern and eastern Ukraine that was once in the Russian empire. But the question is whether he would support a drive towards Mariupol and beyond.
Source: Casualty figures from UN 29 October, UN figures for IDPs 7 November Russia has awarded a contract for a $3bn (£2bn) bridge from the Russian mainland to Crimea, but if the rebels captured Mariupol they could open up a land corridor to the peninsula.
Can the ceasefire survive?
All the signs point to a relentless push towards conflict. One rebel field commander had already described the current truce as a strategic pause. And after the rebel vote in Donetsk and Luhansk, President Poroshenko said a key plank of the ceasefire deal - partial autonomy granted to the rebel-held areas - should be abandoned.
Ukrainian forces, he said, should prepare defences against separatist attack in the cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov as well as the north-eastern city of Kharkiv and the region of Dnipropetrovsk to the west of Donetsk.
Clashes intensified and spread in the conflict regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, and a large-scale build-up of military hardware was reported on the rebel side, with European monitors reporting sightings of heavy artillery and rocket launchers near the centre of Donetsk city.
Nato said the unmarked convoys involved "Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defence systems and Russian combat troops", but the government in Moscow said there was no evidence of that.
What was wrong with the rebel elections?
Ukraine and the West insisted that under the Minsk ceasefire deal a local poll would be held as part of the special status subsequently given to Donetsk and Luhansk by Ukraine's parliament. Legislation provided for elections on 7 December, not a month earlier and organised by the separatists themselves.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that all they agreed to in Minsk was to hold elections "in co-ordination with, not in line with" Ukrainian election plans.
However, the vote on 2 November had echoes of disputed 11 May referendums, which prompted the rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk to declare independence.
Is there anything the international community can do?
Under the Minsk deal, a European observer team has been monitoring the ceasefire. However, they can do little more than observe the troop movements and escalating violence.
EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini has said it will be "extremely difficult if not impossible to start again" and the focus now is on supporting Ukraine.
Perhaps the main question at the heart of this is whether or not Russia wants eastern Ukraine to be stable.
Since March, the EU and US have tried to halt Russian involvement by imposing sanctions on key Russian individuals and companies linked to state finance, energy and arms. But there now appears to be little mood among Europe's leaders for any extension of economic measures.
What does Russia want?
President Vladimir Putin's aims are unclear. He backed the Minsk peace deal and, after months of talks, Russia agreed a deal to resume gas supplies to Ukraine.
What is not known is whether Mr Putin is prepared for a resumption of full-scale hostilities.
While the Kremlin has repeatedly denied supplying troops and sophisticated military hardware to the rebels, Alexander Zakharchenko, the Donetsk rebel leader, said in August that 3-4,000 Russian citizens had been fighting alongside the rebels. The recent surge in violence has brought fresh reports of troop and artillery movement.
One question that remains unanswered is whether Russia feels it needs a land corridor to Crimea.
Although a costly bridge or tunnel is due to be built from the mainland across the Kerch Strait to the peninsula, if the separatists were to capture Mariupol, that would pave the way for access further west along the coast to Crimea.
Are Russia's concerns legitimate?
Ukraine's geopolitical tug of war between the West and Russia all began in November 2013 when then-President Yanukovych pulled out of a deal on closer ties to the European Union at the last minute.
That decision and a subsequent deal with President Putin for cheaper Russian gas supplies sparked protests that ultimately brought Mr Yanukovych down.
So Russia, fearful of Nato reaching its borders, has concentrated on maintaining the regions with which it has closest ties in its orbit.
Ukraine is not in Nato but the alliance says member states can supply arms individually. Ukraine said in September that those deliveries had begun.
There were also unconfirmed reports that US military advisers had helped Ukraine in its major offensive against the rebels in July-August.