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Ukraine conflict: Why is violence surging? Ukraine conflict: Why is east hit by conflict?
(1 day later)
Eastern Ukraine has seen a surge of violence, with both pro-Russian rebels and forces allied to Ukraine's government trying to seize more territory.Eastern Ukraine has seen a surge of violence, with both pro-Russian rebels and forces allied to Ukraine's government trying to seize more territory.
Western leaders speak of a last chance to clinch a ceasefire deal before the fighting spirals out of control. A ceasefire agreed in September 2014 fell apart quickly.
What has prompted the flare-up in a conflict that has cost more than 5,400 lives and few saw coming? A new truce deal was reached on 12 February through international mediation, in an attempt to stop the fighting spiralling out of control.
What prompted the flare-up in a conflict that has cost more than 5,400 lives and few saw coming?
Why has eastern Ukraine returned to full-scale conflict?Why has eastern Ukraine returned to full-scale conflict?
Fighting started in April 2014 and raged for months until Ukraine and the separatists came to a deal on 5 September to halt the violence and free prisoners.Fighting started in April 2014 and raged for months until Ukraine and the separatists came to a deal on 5 September to halt the violence and free prisoners.
But the ceasefire never held entirely. Both sides used the relative lull to build up their forces and for months the rebels tried to seize Donetsk airport, a strategic and symbolic asset, from government forces.But the ceasefire never held entirely. Both sides used the relative lull to build up their forces and for months the rebels tried to seize Donetsk airport, a strategic and symbolic asset, from government forces.
With the start of 2015, a new rebel push began and by 22 January the airport was in their hands.With the start of 2015, a new rebel push began and by 22 January the airport was in their hands.
Donetsk airport - coveted prizeDonetsk airport - coveted prize
Violence has flared the length of the September ceasefire line and the casualties have mounted: Violence flared the length of the September ceasefire line and casualties mounted:
Ghost town captured by rebelsGhost town captured by rebels
Is there any hope of a new ceasefire? Will the new ceasefire work?
The best hope is a renewed deal in Minsk on 11 February, with talks between the leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia. The terms of the deal appear to be a revision of the failed 5 September ceasefire. The deal struck on 12 February in Minsk by the leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia is similar to the old one, but tries to tackle some of its shortcomings.
A previous attempt to renew the ceasefire failed on 31 September because some of the rebel negotiators did not turn up and those who did were not prepared to discuss a truce, international observers said. For the rebels, the new ceasefire line is the same as the old one, so they lose some of the territory they have gained. But government forces must pull back from the current front-line, and territory they have lost since January is confirmed as lost.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin then put forward a proposal widely seen as unacceptable to Ukraine and the West. A new plan was proposed by the leaders of France and Germany on visits to Kiev and Moscow. However, the rebel siege of Debaltseve continues, and there is no deal on who will end up controlling it.
What is in the new ceasefire plan? Even if the bloodshed stops and the guns fall silent, the future status of the rebel-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk remains unclear.
A broad demilitarised zone 50-70km (31-43 miles) wide, straddling the front line, and wider autonomy for the Russian-backed separatists are the main points of the plan. Ukraine is adamant there is no new deal on autonomy for the rebel areas, only decentralisation - so that could anger the rebels.
But details have not been made public and sticking points will include: And it is difficult imagining the rebels agreeing to hold elections under Ukrainian law in their areas, just as it is seeing Ukraine getting back control of its eastern border.
Russia is thought to want Ukraine to pull its weapons back, but there are fears that the rebels, with backing from Moscow, could at some stage seize on such a withdrawal to grab more territory. Both conditions are part of the 13-point plan agreed in Minsk.
If no deal is reached, both sides have already announced plans to bolster their forces by tens of thousands. With spring on its way, the fear is that the conflict could escalate still further. So what is in the 13-point plan?
Ukraine's war: The human costUkraine's war: The human cost
Source: Figures from UN report, 6 FebruarySource: Figures from UN report, 6 February
Why did the September ceasefire break down?Why did the September ceasefire break down?
Each side accused the other of tearing up the peace deal.Each side accused the other of tearing up the peace deal.
For the government, it was the rebels' decision to hold their own local elections in November 2014, in defiance of the Kiev authorities.For the government, it was the rebels' decision to hold their own local elections in November 2014, in defiance of the Kiev authorities.
The separatists were then angered by the government decision to scrap the special status of their two regions, Donetsk and Luhansk.The separatists were then angered by the government decision to scrap the special status of their two regions, Donetsk and Luhansk.
Among the terms of the truce were a commitment to pull back heavy guns from the front line by at least 15km (9 miles), a release of prisoners and an agreement for international observers to monitor the truce and a buffer zone on the Ukrainian border with Russia.Among the terms of the truce were a commitment to pull back heavy guns from the front line by at least 15km (9 miles), a release of prisoners and an agreement for international observers to monitor the truce and a buffer zone on the Ukrainian border with Russia.
Ukraine would also grant wider self-rule to Donetsk and Luhansk.Ukraine would also grant wider self-rule to Donetsk and Luhansk.
Both sides used the ceasefire to rearm, but the rebels now appear to have better quality tanks and weapons than the government.Both sides used the ceasefire to rearm, but the rebels now appear to have better quality tanks and weapons than the government.
The ceasefire that never wasThe ceasefire that never was
Russia tests new weaponry in UkraineRussia tests new weaponry in Ukraine
Who has the upper hand now?Who has the upper hand now?
The rebels certainly have made big gains, with the capture of Donetsk airport and advances around Debaltseve.The rebels certainly have made big gains, with the capture of Donetsk airport and advances around Debaltseve.
The airport gave them a strategic asset a few miles from the centre of Donetsk city, their biggest stronghold.The airport gave them a strategic asset a few miles from the centre of Donetsk city, their biggest stronghold.
Even before the airport had been captured, Ukraine accused separatist forces of seizing more than 500 sq km (194 sq miles), mainly around Debaltseve and Mariupol.Even before the airport had been captured, Ukraine accused separatist forces of seizing more than 500 sq km (194 sq miles), mainly around Debaltseve and Mariupol.
Seizing Debaltseve would give the rebels far greater control of Donetsk and Luhansk.Seizing Debaltseve would give the rebels far greater control of Donetsk and Luhansk.
But casualties on both sides have been heavy and journalists say the separatists have suffered major losses.But casualties on both sides have been heavy and journalists say the separatists have suffered major losses.
Ukrainian forces made significant gains last summer, many of which have not been reversed.Ukrainian forces made significant gains last summer, many of which have not been reversed.
The separatists opened up a coastal front by the Sea of Azov before the September ceasefire, moving within range of the port city of Mariupol, but the ultranationalist pro-government Azov battalion recaptured some villages outside the city in early February.The separatists opened up a coastal front by the Sea of Azov before the September ceasefire, moving within range of the port city of Mariupol, but the ultranationalist pro-government Azov battalion recaptured some villages outside the city in early February.
Why did the fighting start in the first place?Why did the fighting start in the first place?
In April 2014, pro-Russian activists seized control of government buildings in towns and cities across the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.In April 2014, pro-Russian activists seized control of government buildings in towns and cities across the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The events were a repeat of what had happened in Ukraine's Black Sea peninsula of Crimea.The events were a repeat of what had happened in Ukraine's Black Sea peninsula of Crimea.
Gunmen there seized government buildings in February 2014 and raised the Russian flag a week after elected President Viktor Yanukovych, friendly to Moscow, fled during massive pro-EU street protests in Kiev.Gunmen there seized government buildings in February 2014 and raised the Russian flag a week after elected President Viktor Yanukovych, friendly to Moscow, fled during massive pro-EU street protests in Kiev.
An early attempt by nationalists to remove the status of Russian as a second language alarmed many Russian speakers, and officials in Moscow portrayed the new leaders in Kiev as US-backed Ukrainian nationalists bent on violating minority rights.An early attempt by nationalists to remove the status of Russian as a second language alarmed many Russian speakers, and officials in Moscow portrayed the new leaders in Kiev as US-backed Ukrainian nationalists bent on violating minority rights.
A flawed referendum on joining Russia was quickly held in Crimea and within a month the peninsula's annexation was complete.A flawed referendum on joining Russia was quickly held in Crimea and within a month the peninsula's annexation was complete.
There was little bloodshed in Crimea, but Ukraine's fledgling revolutionary government was in no position to fight back, with only 6,000 troops reportedly ready for combat.There was little bloodshed in Crimea, but Ukraine's fledgling revolutionary government was in no position to fight back, with only 6,000 troops reportedly ready for combat.
However, when pro-Russian separatists made a move on Ukraine's industrial east and Russian forces appeared to be building up on the borders, the authorities in Kiev ordered an "anti-terrorist operation".However, when pro-Russian separatists made a move on Ukraine's industrial east and Russian forces appeared to be building up on the borders, the authorities in Kiev ordered an "anti-terrorist operation".
What if the ceasefire bid fails?
It was France's President Francois Hollande who said the Minsk talks were one of the last chances for peace.
If they fail, President Barack Obama has warned that the US would examine supplying Ukraine with "lethal defence" weapons such as anti-tank missiles, prompting Russia to warn that that would destabilise Ukraine.
European countries including Poland are more reticent about sending more arms, but government forces have suffered in recent months from an influx of modern Russian tanks and weaponry. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied sending hardware or troops to help the rebels.
If the war becomes even more intense, there are fears that the rebels, backed by Russia, could push for more territory.
President Putin has revived the idea of "Novorossiya", a wider swathe of southern and eastern Ukraine that was once in the Russian empire. But the question is whether he would support a drive towards Mariupol and beyond.
Russia has awarded a contract for a $3bn (£2bn) bridge from the Russian mainland to Crimea, but if the rebels captured Mariupol they could open up a land corridor to the peninsula.