This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/28/business-live-uk-gdp-growth-figures-osborne-greece-live
The article has changed 15 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| UK GDP growth figures released - business live | UK GDP growth figures released - business live |
| (34 minutes later) | |
| 8.44am BST08:44 | |
| French bank Société Générale predicts that the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the last quarter - slightly lower than the City consensus of 0.7%. | |
| Their global strategist, Kit Juckes, agrees that the Bank of England could soon hike borrowing costs. | |
| The UK economy is trundling along, and with daily reports of shortages in the labour market, it is trundling closer to the rate lift-off. | |
| Updated at 8.45am BST | |
| 8.39am BST08:39 | |
| Over in Greece, officials from its creditors have just been spotted arriving for today’s talks, according to AFP: | |
| Paparazzi à la grecque: Troïka localisée à 10h à la Comptabilité nationale via @protothema http://t.co/zP4ll0Dw5w pic.twitter.com/LBgwHwqqDH | |
| 8.33am BST08:33 | |
| The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip share has risen by 30 points in early trading, as investors await today’s GDP figures at 9.30am BST. | |
| Insurance group RSA are leading the risers, soaring 10% after rival Zurich confirmed it might launch a bid. | |
| Royal Mail, though, are the top faller - down 2.5% after regulator Ofcom suggested it was discriminating against rival delivery firms by charging unfairly high prices. | |
| 8.24am BST08:24 | |
| Reasons to be cautious about GDP.... | |
| Let’s be frank, GDP is a somewhat blunt instrument when it comes to measuring how an economy is performing, for several reasons.... | |
| Economist Diane Coyle has written about this issue for us: | |
| Related: GDP is a mirror on the markets. It must not rule our lives | Diana Coyle | |
| But until policymakers find a better way, we’re stuck with it. | |
| 8.16am BST08:16 | |
| Today’s data may show that UK factories and builders struggled in the April-June quarter, while the service sector performed better. | |
| From the Press Association’s preview: | |
| Investec economist Chris Hare said the dominant services sector - representing three-quarters of output - was likely to do “most of the legwork” with the beleaguered construction and manufacturing industries set to have shrunk. | |
| Scotiabank’s Alan Clarke said 0.7% was “probably the right call” but that monthly data published so far meant that any risks to this were skewed towards a slightly weaker rather than stronger outcome. | |
| 8.08am BST08:08 | 8.08am BST08:08 |
| Today’s growth figures will also help decide when the Bank of England might start to hike borrowing costs. | Today’s growth figures will also help decide when the Bank of England might start to hike borrowing costs. |
| My colleague Katie Allen explains: | My colleague Katie Allen explains: |
| Economists predict official figures on Tuesday will show GDP growth bounced back in the second quarter after a new-year slowdown. | Economists predict official figures on Tuesday will show GDP growth bounced back in the second quarter after a new-year slowdown. |
| Alongside fading worries about the Greek debt crisis and signs of rising living standards, any such recovery in headline growth could fan expectations that the Bank’s policymakers are readying to raise interest rates, perhaps even before the end of the year. | Alongside fading worries about the Greek debt crisis and signs of rising living standards, any such recovery in headline growth could fan expectations that the Bank’s policymakers are readying to raise interest rates, perhaps even before the end of the year. |
| Here’s Katie’s GDP preview: | Here’s Katie’s GDP preview: |
| Related: UK economic growth figures to ignite interest rate debate | Related: UK economic growth figures to ignite interest rate debate |
| 8.04am BST08:04 | 8.04am BST08:04 |
| Britain is the first G7 country to release growth figures for the second quarter of 2015, so this morning’s data will give an early hint of how the global economy is faring (we get growth figures for the US on Thursday) | Britain is the first G7 country to release growth figures for the second quarter of 2015, so this morning’s data will give an early hint of how the global economy is faring (we get growth figures for the US on Thursday) |
| 7.51am BST07:51 | 7.51am BST07:51 |
| Introduction: UK GDP figures due this morning | Introduction: UK GDP figures due this morning |
| Good morning. | Good morning. |
| We’re about to learn whether the UK economy strengthened in the last three months. | We’re about to learn whether the UK economy strengthened in the last three months. |
| New GDP figures, due at 9.30am BST, will show how much Britain’s economy grew by between April and June. | New GDP figures, due at 9.30am BST, will show how much Britain’s economy grew by between April and June. |
| Economists predict growth of around 0.7%, which would be an improvement on the 0.4% growth seen at the start of the year. | Economists predict growth of around 0.7%, which would be an improvement on the 0.4% growth seen at the start of the year. |
| As Capital Economics senior UK economist Samuel Tombs put it: | As Capital Economics senior UK economist Samuel Tombs put it: |
| “Encouragingly, the gamut of the survey data suggests that GDP growth is likely to have improved significantly from the 0.4 per cent rate recorded in the first quarter.” | “Encouragingly, the gamut of the survey data suggests that GDP growth is likely to have improved significantly from the 0.4 per cent rate recorded in the first quarter.” |
| And unless the forecasts are wildly inaccurate, that would mean Britain’s economy has grown for 10 quarters in a row. | And unless the forecasts are wildly inaccurate, that would mean Britain’s economy has grown for 10 quarters in a row. |
| We’ve rarely had it so good. Today’s GDP data will confirm UK is enjoying its 3rd-longest spell of growth since 1955. pic.twitter.com/TSlRedG47Z | We’ve rarely had it so good. Today’s GDP data will confirm UK is enjoying its 3rd-longest spell of growth since 1955. pic.twitter.com/TSlRedG47Z |
| We’ll also be looking to see which parts of the economy did well, and which struggled. Did Britain’s service sector provide the bulk of the growth? | We’ll also be looking to see which parts of the economy did well, and which struggled. Did Britain’s service sector provide the bulk of the growth? |
| We’ll also be tracking other events across the financial markets, the world economy, business and the eurozone. | We’ll also be tracking other events across the financial markets, the world economy, business and the eurozone. |
| On the agenda: China’s stock market which has been volatile today after yesterday’s plunge, and Greece (where technical talks over a third bailout are now underway). | On the agenda: China’s stock market which has been volatile today after yesterday’s plunge, and Greece (where technical talks over a third bailout are now underway). |
| Finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos had pledged that talks will resume “with much more intensity”, in an attempt to reach a deal quickly. | Finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos had pledged that talks will resume “with much more intensity”, in an attempt to reach a deal quickly. |
| There’s also a swathe of company news today, including results from oil giant BP and retailer Next. | There’s also a swathe of company news today, including results from oil giant BP and retailer Next. |
| Breaking: BP swings to second-quarter loss on lower oil prices and Deepwater Horizon charge http://t.co/tYCeELTJqc | Breaking: BP swings to second-quarter loss on lower oil prices and Deepwater Horizon charge http://t.co/tYCeELTJqc |
| Warm weather prompts Next to boost forecasts http://t.co/fEhek7wkV4 | Warm weather prompts Next to boost forecasts http://t.co/fEhek7wkV4 |
| Updated at 7.52am BST | Updated at 7.52am BST |