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| UK growth accelerates to 0.7%, but manufacturing shrinks - live updates | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.32am BST10:32 | |
| UK on course to grow at 2.6% in 2015. @PwC_UK forecasts Britain will head G7 growth league for 2nd year in a row http://t.co/JSd2AweQbh #GDP | |
| 10.31am BST10:31 | |
| The pound jumped when the GDP data was released, as traders anticipated that stronger growth made an interest rate rise more likely. | |
| Sterling has gained half a cent against the US dollar today. | |
| 10.26am BST10:26 | |
| James Knightley of ING sums up the growth data: | |
| The dominant service sector also grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, while there was also a strong contribution from the oil and gas industry. | |
| However, manufacturing output fell 0.3% as a combination of the strong pound and weak export markets hurt activity. Construction output was flat on the quarter. | |
| And with spare capacity being mopped up, the Bank of England could raise borrowing costs by early 2016: | |
| We suspect that two members of the MPC may well vote for a rate hike in August although there may not be critical mass until February next year. | |
| 10.21am BST10:21 | |
| If Britain maintains its current growth rate, it could retain the title of fastest-growing G7 country. | |
| Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight explains: | |
| Growth of 2.6% in 2015 would likely make the UK, the fastest growing G7 economy as it was in 2014. | |
| IHS currently forecasts GDP growth in 2015 of 2.2% in the US, 1.7% in Germany, 1.2% in France and 1.0% in Japan. We see overall Eurozone growth at 1.5% in 2015 | |
| 10.15am BST10:15 | |
| After a slow start, Britain is the third-fastest growing member of the G7 since the financial crisis, behind Canada and the US: | |
| These other countries will all report their GDP in the next few weeks - we get the US on Thursday, Canada on Friday, eurozone data on August 14, and Japan on the 17th. | |
| 10.07am BST10:07 | |
| Oil and gas extraction also made a positive contribution to growth, with output jumping by 7.8%. | |
| The ONS say that may be due to tax cuts for the oil industry announced in March’s budget. | |
| 9.59am BST09:59 | 9.59am BST09:59 |
| This is disappointing. Britain’s manufacturing sector shrank by 0.3% during the last quarter, dealing another blow to hopes of a “March of the Makers”. | This is disappointing. Britain’s manufacturing sector shrank by 0.3% during the last quarter, dealing another blow to hopes of a “March of the Makers”. |
| In contrast, the business services and finance sub-sector grew by 0.8%. | In contrast, the business services and finance sub-sector grew by 0.8%. |
| 9.55am BST09:55 | 9.55am BST09:55 |
| I know we bang on about services being the ‘dominant’ part of the economy. But it’s true. | I know we bang on about services being the ‘dominant’ part of the economy. But it’s true. |
| For all the talk of manufacturing revival, only the service sector is larger than its pre-crisis peak: | For all the talk of manufacturing revival, only the service sector is larger than its pre-crisis peak: |
| 9.53am BST09:53 | 9.53am BST09:53 |
| GDP: Key charts start here | GDP: Key charts start here |
| The UK economy has now grown for 10 straight quarters, and bounced back from its weakness at the start of the year: | The UK economy has now grown for 10 straight quarters, and bounced back from its weakness at the start of the year: |
| Updated at 9.55am BST | Updated at 9.55am BST |
| 9.44am BST09:44 | 9.44am BST09:44 |
| UK GDP growth in Q2 leaps to 0.7%, not cold, not too hot. No wonder the PM was so full of beans: up in a mo in Singapore talking corruption | UK GDP growth in Q2 leaps to 0.7%, not cold, not too hot. No wonder the PM was so full of beans: up in a mo in Singapore talking corruption |
| 9.43am BST09:43 | 9.43am BST09:43 |
| Osborne: Britain's motoring ahead | Osborne: Britain's motoring ahead |
| Chancellor George Osborne has welcomed today’s figures with a flurry of automotive metaphors: | Chancellor George Osborne has welcomed today’s figures with a flurry of automotive metaphors: |
| GDP growth 0.7%. Shows Britain motoring ahead with economy producing as much per head as ever before. We must stay on road we've set out on | GDP growth 0.7%. Shows Britain motoring ahead with economy producing as much per head as ever before. We must stay on road we've set out on |
| Updated at 9.44am BST | Updated at 9.44am BST |
| 9.42am BST09:42 | 9.42am BST09:42 |
| UK GDP per head back at pre-crisis peak | UK GDP per head back at pre-crisis peak |
| Now this is significant. Britain’s economic output, per person, has finally reached its level achieved before the crisis. | Now this is significant. Britain’s economic output, per person, has finally reached its level achieved before the crisis. |
| The ONS says that: | The ONS says that: |
| The 0.7% increase in GDP growth in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 implies that GDP per head would be broadly equal to the pre-economic downturn peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008. | The 0.7% increase in GDP growth in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 implies that GDP per head would be broadly equal to the pre-economic downturn peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008. |
| ONS says UK GDP per head now "broadly level" with its pre-crisis peak | ONS says UK GDP per head now "broadly level" with its pre-crisis peak |
| 9.42am BST09:42 | 9.42am BST09:42 |
| The total UK economy is now 5.2% higher than its pre-crisis peak in early 2008. | The total UK economy is now 5.2% higher than its pre-crisis peak in early 2008. |
| 9.36am BST09:36 | 9.36am BST09:36 |
| Once again, Britain’s service sector provided the bulk of the growth in the last quarter | Once again, Britain’s service sector provided the bulk of the growth in the last quarter |
| .@ONS UK #GDP in Q2 (1st est.) +0.7%. Thank goodness for services... #UKeconomy #GDP http://t.co/ucRgatQ3iO pic.twitter.com/JHHfOp6WNx | .@ONS UK #GDP in Q2 (1st est.) +0.7%. Thank goodness for services... #UKeconomy #GDP http://t.co/ucRgatQ3iO pic.twitter.com/JHHfOp6WNx |
| 9.35am BST09:35 | 9.35am BST09:35 |
| Read the full report | Read the full report |
| You can see the full report from the Office for National Statistics here: | You can see the full report from the Office for National Statistics here: |
| Gross Domestic Product Preliminary Estimate, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 | Gross Domestic Product Preliminary Estimate, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 |
| 9.34am BST09:34 | 9.34am BST09:34 |
| Britain’s agriculture sector shrank by 0.7% during the quarter. | Britain’s agriculture sector shrank by 0.7% during the quarter. |
| 9.33am BST09:33 | 9.33am BST09:33 |
| Here’s some detail: | Here’s some detail: |
| Britain’s service sector grew by 0.7% during the last quarter, maintaining its dominant contribution to the economy. | Britain’s service sector grew by 0.7% during the last quarter, maintaining its dominant contribution to the economy. |
| Industrial output jumped by 1%. | Industrial output jumped by 1%. |
| Construction was flat, though, with no growth compared to Q1. | Construction was flat, though, with no growth compared to Q1. |
| 9.33am BST09:33 | 9.33am BST09:33 |
| On an annual basis, the UK economy grew by 2.6% - down from 2.9% three months ago. | On an annual basis, the UK economy grew by 2.6% - down from 2.9% three months ago. |
| 9.30am BST09:30 | 9.30am BST09:30 |
| UK economy grows by 0.7% | UK economy grows by 0.7% |
| Here we go! | Here we go! |
| Growth across the UK accelerated in the last quarter. | Growth across the UK accelerated in the last quarter. |
| GDP rose by 0.7% in the three months to June, up from 0.4% in the first three months of the year. | GDP rose by 0.7% in the three months to June, up from 0.4% in the first three months of the year. |
| That’s the 10th straight quarter of growth, and bang in line with expectations. | That’s the 10th straight quarter of growth, and bang in line with expectations. |
| More to follow.... | More to follow.... |
| 9.20am BST09:20 | 9.20am BST09:20 |
| The pound is dipping a little as traders get edgy with 9.30am BST approaching..... | The pound is dipping a little as traders get edgy with 9.30am BST approaching..... |
| #GBP weakness heading into UK Q2 GDP figure in 15 mins. #headsup | #GBP weakness heading into UK Q2 GDP figure in 15 mins. #headsup |
| 9.11am BST09:11 | 9.11am BST09:11 |
| Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX, also believes today’s growth data could put the Bank of England in the spotlight: | Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX, also believes today’s growth data could put the Bank of England in the spotlight: |
| An upbeat result would reinforce recent comments from BOE officials expressing concerns about wage inflation and fuel speculation about oncoming tightening. | An upbeat result would reinforce recent comments from BOE officials expressing concerns about wage inflation and fuel speculation about oncoming tightening. |
| Needless to say, such a scenario is likely to bode well for the British Pound. | Needless to say, such a scenario is likely to bode well for the British Pound. |
| Which would be good news for Brits heading abroad for a summer holiday.... | Which would be good news for Brits heading abroad for a summer holiday.... |
| 8.59am BST08:59 | 8.59am BST08:59 |
| Just 30 minutes to go...... | Just 30 minutes to go...... |
| Upcoming event in 30 min [08:30 GMT] - Preliminary UK GDP (Quarter on Quarter, cons:0.7%, prev:0.4%) #forex #fx #finance | Upcoming event in 30 min [08:30 GMT] - Preliminary UK GDP (Quarter on Quarter, cons:0.7%, prev:0.4%) #forex #fx #finance |
| 8.59am BST08:59 | 8.59am BST08:59 |
| Back in the City, oil giant BP has fallen back into the red as the costs of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico disaster continue to mount. | Back in the City, oil giant BP has fallen back into the red as the costs of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico disaster continue to mount. |
| My (new) colleague Graham Ruddick has the story: | My (new) colleague Graham Ruddick has the story: |
| Related: BP reveals $6.3bn quarterly loss due to Deepwater Horizon bill | Related: BP reveals $6.3bn quarterly loss due to Deepwater Horizon bill |
| 8.54am BST08:54 | 8.54am BST08:54 |
| There are a range of forecasts for today’s GDP reading - from a punchy 0.8% growth down to a mediocre 0.4%. | There are a range of forecasts for today’s GDP reading - from a punchy 0.8% growth down to a mediocre 0.4%. |
| UK Q2 GDP growth f'cast to rise to 0.7% qq from 0.3%: @ReutersPolls. Range 0.4-0.8%; top 5 most accurate saying 0.7% pic.twitter.com/9uVlWtxOhw | UK Q2 GDP growth f'cast to rise to 0.7% qq from 0.3%: @ReutersPolls. Range 0.4-0.8%; top 5 most accurate saying 0.7% pic.twitter.com/9uVlWtxOhw |
| 8.44am BST08:44 | 8.44am BST08:44 |
| French bank Société Générale predicts that the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the last quarter - slightly lower than the City consensus of 0.7%. | French bank Société Générale predicts that the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the last quarter - slightly lower than the City consensus of 0.7%. |
| Their global strategist, Kit Juckes, agrees that the Bank of England could soon hike borrowing costs. | Their global strategist, Kit Juckes, agrees that the Bank of England could soon hike borrowing costs. |
| The UK economy is trundling along, and with daily reports of shortages in the labour market, it is trundling closer to the rate lift-off. | The UK economy is trundling along, and with daily reports of shortages in the labour market, it is trundling closer to the rate lift-off. |
| Updated at 8.45am BST | Updated at 8.45am BST |
| 8.39am BST08:39 | 8.39am BST08:39 |
| Over in Greece, officials from its creditors have just been spotted arriving for today’s talks, according to AFP: | Over in Greece, officials from its creditors have just been spotted arriving for today’s talks, according to AFP: |
| Paparazzi à la grecque: Troïka localisée à 10h à la Comptabilité nationale via @protothema http://t.co/zP4ll0Dw5w pic.twitter.com/LBgwHwqqDH | Paparazzi à la grecque: Troïka localisée à 10h à la Comptabilité nationale via @protothema http://t.co/zP4ll0Dw5w pic.twitter.com/LBgwHwqqDH |
| The troika begins work in Athens amid tight security - VIDEO - http://t.co/cPsToKBpGL pic.twitter.com/EGFCIuqVDq | The troika begins work in Athens amid tight security - VIDEO - http://t.co/cPsToKBpGL pic.twitter.com/EGFCIuqVDq |
| Updated at 9.12am BST | Updated at 9.12am BST |
| 8.33am BST08:33 | 8.33am BST08:33 |
| The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has risen by 30 points in early trading, as investors await today’s GDP figures at 9.30am BST. | The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has risen by 30 points in early trading, as investors await today’s GDP figures at 9.30am BST. |
| Insurance group RSA are leading the risers, soaring 10% after rival Zurich confirmed it might launch a bid. | Insurance group RSA are leading the risers, soaring 10% after rival Zurich confirmed it might launch a bid. |
| Royal Mail, though, are the top faller - down 2.5% after regulator Ofcom suggested it was discriminating against rival delivery firms by charging unfairly high prices. | Royal Mail, though, are the top faller - down 2.5% after regulator Ofcom suggested it was discriminating against rival delivery firms by charging unfairly high prices. |
| Updated at 9.13am BST | Updated at 9.13am BST |
| 8.24am BST08:24 | 8.24am BST08:24 |
| Reasons to be cautious about GDP.... | Reasons to be cautious about GDP.... |
| Let’s be frank, GDP is a somewhat blunt instrument when it comes to measuring how an economy is performing, for several reasons.... | Let’s be frank, GDP is a somewhat blunt instrument when it comes to measuring how an economy is performing, for several reasons.... |
| Economist Diane Coyle has written about this issue for us: | Economist Diane Coyle has written about this issue for us: |
| Related: GDP is a mirror on the markets. It must not rule our lives | Diana Coyle | Related: GDP is a mirror on the markets. It must not rule our lives | Diana Coyle |
| But until policymakers find a better way, we’re stuck with it. | But until policymakers find a better way, we’re stuck with it. |
| 8.16am BST08:16 | 8.16am BST08:16 |
| Today’s data may show that UK factories and builders struggled in the April-June quarter, while the service sector performed better. | Today’s data may show that UK factories and builders struggled in the April-June quarter, while the service sector performed better. |
| From the Press Association’s preview: | From the Press Association’s preview: |
| Investec economist Chris Hare said the dominant services sector - representing three-quarters of output - was likely to do “most of the legwork” with the beleaguered construction and manufacturing industries set to have shrunk. | Investec economist Chris Hare said the dominant services sector - representing three-quarters of output - was likely to do “most of the legwork” with the beleaguered construction and manufacturing industries set to have shrunk. |
| Scotiabank’s Alan Clarke said 0.7% was “probably the right call” but that monthly data published so far meant that any risks to this were skewed towards a slightly weaker rather than stronger outcome. | Scotiabank’s Alan Clarke said 0.7% was “probably the right call” but that monthly data published so far meant that any risks to this were skewed towards a slightly weaker rather than stronger outcome. |
| 8.08am BST08:08 | 8.08am BST08:08 |
| Today’s growth figures will also help decide when the Bank of England might start to hike borrowing costs. | Today’s growth figures will also help decide when the Bank of England might start to hike borrowing costs. |
| My colleague Katie Allen explains: | My colleague Katie Allen explains: |
| Economists predict official figures on Tuesday will show GDP growth bounced back in the second quarter after a new-year slowdown. | Economists predict official figures on Tuesday will show GDP growth bounced back in the second quarter after a new-year slowdown. |
| Alongside fading worries about the Greek debt crisis and signs of rising living standards, any such recovery in headline growth could fan expectations that the Bank’s policymakers are readying to raise interest rates, perhaps even before the end of the year. | Alongside fading worries about the Greek debt crisis and signs of rising living standards, any such recovery in headline growth could fan expectations that the Bank’s policymakers are readying to raise interest rates, perhaps even before the end of the year. |
| Here’s Katie’s GDP preview: | Here’s Katie’s GDP preview: |
| Related: UK economic growth figures to ignite interest rate debate | Related: UK economic growth figures to ignite interest rate debate |
| 8.04am BST08:04 | 8.04am BST08:04 |
| Britain is the first G7 country to release growth figures for the second quarter of 2015, so this morning’s data will give an early hint of how the global economy is faring (we get growth figures for the US on Thursday) | Britain is the first G7 country to release growth figures for the second quarter of 2015, so this morning’s data will give an early hint of how the global economy is faring (we get growth figures for the US on Thursday) |
| 7.51am BST07:51 | 7.51am BST07:51 |
| Introduction: UK GDP figures due this morning | Introduction: UK GDP figures due this morning |
| Good morning. | Good morning. |
| We’re about to learn whether the UK economy strengthened in the last three months. | We’re about to learn whether the UK economy strengthened in the last three months. |
| New GDP figures, due at 9.30am BST, will show how much Britain’s economy grew by between April and June. | New GDP figures, due at 9.30am BST, will show how much Britain’s economy grew by between April and June. |
| Economists predict growth of around 0.7%, which would be an improvement on the 0.4% growth seen at the start of the year. | Economists predict growth of around 0.7%, which would be an improvement on the 0.4% growth seen at the start of the year. |
| As Capital Economics senior UK economist Samuel Tombs put it: | As Capital Economics senior UK economist Samuel Tombs put it: |
| “Encouragingly, the gamut of the survey data suggests that GDP growth is likely to have improved significantly from the 0.4 per cent rate recorded in the first quarter.” | “Encouragingly, the gamut of the survey data suggests that GDP growth is likely to have improved significantly from the 0.4 per cent rate recorded in the first quarter.” |
| And unless the forecasts are wildly inaccurate, that would mean Britain’s economy has grown for 10 quarters in a row. | And unless the forecasts are wildly inaccurate, that would mean Britain’s economy has grown for 10 quarters in a row. |
| We’ve rarely had it so good. Today’s GDP data will confirm UK is enjoying its 3rd-longest spell of growth since 1955. pic.twitter.com/TSlRedG47Z | We’ve rarely had it so good. Today’s GDP data will confirm UK is enjoying its 3rd-longest spell of growth since 1955. pic.twitter.com/TSlRedG47Z |
| We’ll also be looking to see which parts of the economy did well, and which struggled. Did Britain’s service sector provide the bulk of the growth? | We’ll also be looking to see which parts of the economy did well, and which struggled. Did Britain’s service sector provide the bulk of the growth? |
| We’ll also be tracking other events across the financial markets, the world economy, business and the eurozone. | We’ll also be tracking other events across the financial markets, the world economy, business and the eurozone. |
| On the agenda: China’s stock market which has been volatile today after yesterday’s plunge, and Greece (where technical talks over a third bailout are now underway). | On the agenda: China’s stock market which has been volatile today after yesterday’s plunge, and Greece (where technical talks over a third bailout are now underway). |
| Finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos had pledged that talks will resume “with much more intensity”, in an attempt to reach a deal quickly. | Finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos had pledged that talks will resume “with much more intensity”, in an attempt to reach a deal quickly. |
| There’s also a swathe of company news today, including results from oil giant BP and retailer Next. | There’s also a swathe of company news today, including results from oil giant BP and retailer Next. |
| Breaking: BP swings to second-quarter loss on lower oil prices and Deepwater Horizon charge http://t.co/tYCeELTJqc | Breaking: BP swings to second-quarter loss on lower oil prices and Deepwater Horizon charge http://t.co/tYCeELTJqc |
| Warm weather prompts Next to boost forecasts http://t.co/fEhek7wkV4 | Warm weather prompts Next to boost forecasts http://t.co/fEhek7wkV4 |
| Updated at 7.52am BST | Updated at 7.52am BST |