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UK growth accelerates to 0.7%, but manufacturing shrinks - live updates UK growth accelerates; Greece begins talks with creditors - business live
(35 minutes later)
12.16pm BST12:1612.16pm BST12:16
Tight security in Greece as negotiations beginTight security in Greece as negotiations begin
Time to look at Greece. And in Athens the inspector tour by international auditors continues apace – under draconian security.Time to look at Greece. And in Athens the inspector tour by international auditors continues apace – under draconian security.
Our correspondent Helena Smith reports.Our correspondent Helena Smith reports.
At no time in the five years that international monitors have visited Greece has security been as visible or tight.At no time in the five years that international monitors have visited Greece has security been as visible or tight.
After the very public row of where to host officials representing the EU, ECB, ESM and IMF and what to let them see, Greek authorities have now gone the other way throwing a security ring around them like no other.After the very public row of where to host officials representing the EU, ECB, ESM and IMF and what to let them see, Greek authorities have now gone the other way throwing a security ring around them like no other.
As auditors kicked off their inspection tour with a visit to the State General Accounting Office – the government agency that oversees financial management of the Greek state – police trailed them on the streets while a helicopter monitored their every move overhead. Some 250 police are believed to have been seconded to guard the Athens Hilton where the teams are now staying.As auditors kicked off their inspection tour with a visit to the State General Accounting Office – the government agency that oversees financial management of the Greek state – police trailed them on the streets while a helicopter monitored their every move overhead. Some 250 police are believed to have been seconded to guard the Athens Hilton where the teams are now staying.
At least 250 police tasked with #Troika 's security in #Athens #Greece - VIDEO - http://t.co/rbCxq4CvWD pic.twitter.com/nzUuL1MDA0At least 250 police tasked with #Troika 's security in #Athens #Greece - VIDEO - http://t.co/rbCxq4CvWD pic.twitter.com/nzUuL1MDA0
The draconian measures will be stepped up when mission heads join the technical teams later this week. In the past mission chiefs have been the focus of protests with demonstrators not only heckling the auditors but on one occasion throwing coins at them. The imposition of new biting austerity – by a leftist government no less – has raised fears of impromptu protests again.The draconian measures will be stepped up when mission heads join the technical teams later this week. In the past mission chiefs have been the focus of protests with demonstrators not only heckling the auditors but on one occasion throwing coins at them. The imposition of new biting austerity – by a leftist government no less – has raised fears of impromptu protests again.
All of which might explain why Alexis Tsipras’ government is still trying to play down the visit.All of which might explain why Alexis Tsipras’ government is still trying to play down the visit.
“Whatever there is to learn from the meetings you will learn from the coordinators of the negotiation on the part of the government,” the deputy finance minister Dimitris Mardas told reporters outside the General Accounting Office shortly after technical teams had slipped in.“Whatever there is to learn from the meetings you will learn from the coordinators of the negotiation on the part of the government,” the deputy finance minister Dimitris Mardas told reporters outside the General Accounting Office shortly after technical teams had slipped in.
“We are informing [them] and giving the information that is needed so that the negotiations move normally.”“We are informing [them] and giving the information that is needed so that the negotiations move normally.”
12.07pm BST12:0712.07pm BST12:07
The decision on whether to raise UK interest rates will soon fall, in part, on the shoulders of economist Gertjan Vlieghe.The decision on whether to raise UK interest rates will soon fall, in part, on the shoulders of economist Gertjan Vlieghe.
He’s just been named as the newest member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee.He’s just been named as the newest member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee.
Vlieghe, who starts in September, is currently a partner at hedge fund giant Brevan Howard. He’s previously worked at Deutsche Bank.Vlieghe, who starts in September, is currently a partner at hedge fund giant Brevan Howard. He’s previously worked at Deutsche Bank.
Vlieghe will be an ‘external’ member of the MPC, replacing David Miles. But he won’t need any help finding his way around the BoE - as he was once an advisor to former governor Mervyn King.Vlieghe will be an ‘external’ member of the MPC, replacing David Miles. But he won’t need any help finding his way around the BoE - as he was once an advisor to former governor Mervyn King.
Appointing an external member to the MPC who worked at the #BoE and a large hedge fund? https://t.co/uDezPw4osk #GBP #GDPAppointing an external member to the MPC who worked at the #BoE and a large hedge fund? https://t.co/uDezPw4osk #GBP #GDP
Updated at 12.18pm BSTUpdated at 12.18pm BST
11.49am BST11:4911.49am BST11:49
Lunchtime summary: UK growth picks upLunchtime summary: UK growth picks up
Time for a recap on the GDP figures, by Jill Treanor:Time for a recap on the GDP figures, by Jill Treanor:
Britain’s economic growth bounced back in the second quarter of the year, according to official data on Tuesday, fuelling the debate about the first rise in interest rates since the financial crisis.Britain’s economic growth bounced back in the second quarter of the year, according to official data on Tuesday, fuelling the debate about the first rise in interest rates since the financial crisis.
There were also signs that living standards are returning to their pre-crisis levels as the Office for National Statistics said that GDP per head was now “broadly equal” to the first quarter of 2008, before the economic crisis drove the UK into recession.There were also signs that living standards are returning to their pre-crisis levels as the Office for National Statistics said that GDP per head was now “broadly equal” to the first quarter of 2008, before the economic crisis drove the UK into recession.
After a slowdown in the first three months of the year to 0.4%, the first estimate for second quarter growth stood at 0.7%, in line with City expectations, but just off the pace of growth recorded at the end of 2014.After a slowdown in the first three months of the year to 0.4%, the first estimate for second quarter growth stood at 0.7%, in line with City expectations, but just off the pace of growth recorded at the end of 2014.
The growth was fuelled by the service sector, which will stoke fears that the recovery is not spreading to all sectors of the economy. Manufacturing, one of the sectors targeted by the government, fell by 0.3%.The growth was fuelled by the service sector, which will stoke fears that the recovery is not spreading to all sectors of the economy. Manufacturing, one of the sectors targeted by the government, fell by 0.3%.
Vicky Redwood, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “Admittedly, growth remains very unbalanced. The services sector drove the rise in GDP, while construction output was flat and manufacturing output fell. But at least it looks as though productivity growth is continuing to pick up”....Vicky Redwood, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “Admittedly, growth remains very unbalanced. The services sector drove the rise in GDP, while construction output was flat and manufacturing output fell. But at least it looks as though productivity growth is continuing to pick up”....
Here’s Jill’s full story:Here’s Jill’s full story:
Related: UK economy powers ahead by 0.7%Related: UK economy powers ahead by 0.7%
Updated at 11.51am BSTUpdated at 11.51am BST
11.36am BST11:3611.36am BST11:36
My colleague Katie Allen writes that while Britain’s economy is growing at a decent rate, the underlying picture is less cheery - with many people still finding the labour market tough:My colleague Katie Allen writes that while Britain’s economy is growing at a decent rate, the underlying picture is less cheery - with many people still finding the labour market tough:
The Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, has warned about this as he makes the case for holding off a potentially damaging early interest rate rise.The Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, has warned about this as he makes the case for holding off a potentially damaging early interest rate rise.
“There are still people without a job who would like a job; there are still people with jobs who would like to work more hours. And, even for those that have got jobs, their pay – in most cases – isn’t racing away,” he told BBC Newsnight last week.“There are still people without a job who would like a job; there are still people with jobs who would like to work more hours. And, even for those that have got jobs, their pay – in most cases – isn’t racing away,” he told BBC Newsnight last week.
The latest analysis of what jobs are available gives yet more reasons for caution. Advertised salaries have fallen to an 11-month low, as growth in the workforce is driven by lower-paid roles and part-time positions, according to jobs search engine Adzuna.co.uk which aims to list every vacancy advertised.The latest analysis of what jobs are available gives yet more reasons for caution. Advertised salaries have fallen to an 11-month low, as growth in the workforce is driven by lower-paid roles and part-time positions, according to jobs search engine Adzuna.co.uk which aims to list every vacancy advertised.
These latest GDP figures underline the very British addiction to low-paid labour rather than more innovative and productive economic activity. For all the government’s pledges to rebalance the economy, the dominant services sector is the only part of Britain’s economy to be back to its pre-crisis peak.These latest GDP figures underline the very British addiction to low-paid labour rather than more innovative and productive economic activity. For all the government’s pledges to rebalance the economy, the dominant services sector is the only part of Britain’s economy to be back to its pre-crisis peak.
Here’s Katie’s full analysis:Here’s Katie’s full analysis:
Related: UK GDP growth: we have rarely had it so good, apparentlyRelated: UK GDP growth: we have rarely had it so good, apparently
11.25am BST11:2511.25am BST11:25
UK growth bounces back as GDP rises by 0.7%: http://t.co/qzpOQuBmef pic.twitter.com/YGLg6RfptUUK growth bounces back as GDP rises by 0.7%: http://t.co/qzpOQuBmef pic.twitter.com/YGLg6RfptU
11.08am BST11:0811.08am BST11:08
Chris Leslie MP, Labour’s shadow chancellor, fears Britain’s economy isn’t balanced enough to handle fresh problems in Europe and China, or a slowing world economy.Chris Leslie MP, Labour’s shadow chancellor, fears Britain’s economy isn’t balanced enough to handle fresh problems in Europe and China, or a slowing world economy.
“The OBR has revised down productivity next year and for three years after that. Manufacturing is down by 0.3% and the Government is on course to miss its exports target by hundreds of billions of pounds.“The OBR has revised down productivity next year and for three years after that. Manufacturing is down by 0.3% and the Government is on course to miss its exports target by hundreds of billions of pounds.
“The Chancellor is complacent at a time when he should take action to support exporters and strengthen Britain’s infrastructure. Pulling the plug on major rail electrification and hitting households next April with a work penalty in the tax credit system are the wrong choices for the long term.”“The Chancellor is complacent at a time when he should take action to support exporters and strengthen Britain’s infrastructure. Pulling the plug on major rail electrification and hitting households next April with a work penalty in the tax credit system are the wrong choices for the long term.”
10.55am BST10:5510.55am BST10:55
TUC: Manufacturing shrinking on Osborne's watchTUC: Manufacturing shrinking on Osborne's watch
The 0.3% decline in manufacturing output in the last quarter has alarmed Britain’s trades unions.The 0.3% decline in manufacturing output in the last quarter has alarmed Britain’s trades unions.
TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said:TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said:
“The government’s economic plan is not delivering what was promised. We were told there would be a march of the makers, but instead manufacturing continues to decline. And while there is a desperate need for affordable homes, construction output remains in the doldrums.“The government’s economic plan is not delivering what was promised. We were told there would be a march of the makers, but instead manufacturing continues to decline. And while there is a desperate need for affordable homes, construction output remains in the doldrums.
“We need a new plan for productivity and growth, because the current one is not delivering across the whole economy – a plan with stronger investment in infrastructure, innovation and skills. But the cuts the Chancellor is planning will damage demand and run the risk of reducing future growth.”“We need a new plan for productivity and growth, because the current one is not delivering across the whole economy – a plan with stronger investment in infrastructure, innovation and skills. But the cuts the Chancellor is planning will damage demand and run the risk of reducing future growth.”
10.49am BST10:4910.49am BST10:49
Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at PwC, is also struck by how private sector service firms are leading the recovery, thanks to consumer spending.Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at PwC, is also struck by how private sector service firms are leading the recovery, thanks to consumer spending.
Activity in retailing, hotels, restaurants and related services is 4.5% up on a year ago and the output of transport services has risen by 3.7%. Business and financial service growth in the past year is also over 3%.Activity in retailing, hotels, restaurants and related services is 4.5% up on a year ago and the output of transport services has risen by 3.7%. Business and financial service growth in the past year is also over 3%.
Manufacturing output and public services are much more sluggish, with output growing by just 0.5% or so over the past yearManufacturing output and public services are much more sluggish, with output growing by just 0.5% or so over the past year
10.38am BST10:3810.38am BST10:38
Britain’s factories probably suffered from the weak European economy and stronger pound, says Jeremy Cook of World First:Britain’s factories probably suffered from the weak European economy and stronger pound, says Jeremy Cook of World First:
“People are spending money because they feel more secure in their jobs and those jobs are starting to pay more than inflation is taking away.“People are spending money because they feel more secure in their jobs and those jobs are starting to pay more than inflation is taking away.
“The environment for manufacturers is less pleasant. Despite the government’s pledges to drive a ‘march of the makers’ and reinvigorate the UK’s manufacturing sector, growth remains hard to come by.“The environment for manufacturers is less pleasant. Despite the government’s pledges to drive a ‘march of the makers’ and reinvigorate the UK’s manufacturing sector, growth remains hard to come by.
“A 0.3% contraction can be chalked up to many things, but weakness in Europe and the overt strength of the pound will not be helping matters.“A 0.3% contraction can be chalked up to many things, but weakness in Europe and the overt strength of the pound will not be helping matters.
10.37am BST10:3710.37am BST10:37
I now understand George Osborne’s motoring references:I now understand George Osborne’s motoring references:
Interviewing Chancellor in motorbike factory Him: The UK is motoring ahead Me: But it’s been a long & winding road, no? Now feel a bit sickInterviewing Chancellor in motorbike factory Him: The UK is motoring ahead Me: But it’s been a long & winding road, no? Now feel a bit sick
10.32am BST10:3210.32am BST10:32
UK on course to grow at 2.6% in 2015. @PwC_UK forecasts Britain will head G7 growth league for 2nd year in a row http://t.co/JSd2AweQbh #GDPUK on course to grow at 2.6% in 2015. @PwC_UK forecasts Britain will head G7 growth league for 2nd year in a row http://t.co/JSd2AweQbh #GDP
10.31am BST10:3110.31am BST10:31
The pound jumped when the GDP data was released, as traders anticipated that stronger growth made an interest rate rise more likely.The pound jumped when the GDP data was released, as traders anticipated that stronger growth made an interest rate rise more likely.
Sterling has gained half a cent against the US dollar today.Sterling has gained half a cent against the US dollar today.
10.26am BST10:2610.26am BST10:26
James Knightley of ING sums up the growth data:James Knightley of ING sums up the growth data:
The dominant service sector also grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, while there was also a strong contribution from the oil and gas industry.The dominant service sector also grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, while there was also a strong contribution from the oil and gas industry.
However, manufacturing output fell 0.3% as a combination of the strong pound and weak export markets hurt activity. Construction output was flat on the quarter.However, manufacturing output fell 0.3% as a combination of the strong pound and weak export markets hurt activity. Construction output was flat on the quarter.
And with spare capacity being mopped up, the Bank of England could raise borrowing costs by early 2016:And with spare capacity being mopped up, the Bank of England could raise borrowing costs by early 2016:
We suspect that two members of the MPC may well vote for a rate hike in August although there may not be critical mass until February next year.We suspect that two members of the MPC may well vote for a rate hike in August although there may not be critical mass until February next year.
10.21am BST10:2110.21am BST10:21
If Britain maintains its current growth rate, it could retain the title of fastest-growing G7 country.If Britain maintains its current growth rate, it could retain the title of fastest-growing G7 country.
Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight explains:Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight explains:
Growth of 2.6% in 2015 would likely make the UK, the fastest growing G7 economy as it was in 2014.Growth of 2.6% in 2015 would likely make the UK, the fastest growing G7 economy as it was in 2014.
IHS currently forecasts GDP growth in 2015 of 2.2% in the US, 1.7% in Germany, 1.2% in France and 1.0% in Japan. We see overall Eurozone growth at 1.5% in 2015IHS currently forecasts GDP growth in 2015 of 2.2% in the US, 1.7% in Germany, 1.2% in France and 1.0% in Japan. We see overall Eurozone growth at 1.5% in 2015
10.15am BST10:1510.15am BST10:15
After a slow start, Britain is the third-fastest growing member of the G7 since the financial crisis, behind Canada and the US:After a slow start, Britain is the third-fastest growing member of the G7 since the financial crisis, behind Canada and the US:
These other countries will all report their GDP in the next few weeks - we get the US on Thursday, Canada on Friday, eurozone data on August 14, and Japan on the 17th.These other countries will all report their GDP in the next few weeks - we get the US on Thursday, Canada on Friday, eurozone data on August 14, and Japan on the 17th.
10.07am BST10:0710.07am BST10:07
Oil and gas extraction also made a positive contribution to growth, with output jumping by 7.8%.Oil and gas extraction also made a positive contribution to growth, with output jumping by 7.8%.
The ONS say that may be due to tax cuts for the oil industry announced in March’s budget.The ONS say that may be due to tax cuts for the oil industry announced in March’s budget.
9.59am BST09:599.59am BST09:59
This is disappointing. Britain’s manufacturing sector shrank by 0.3% during the last quarter, dealing another blow to hopes of a “March of the Makers”.This is disappointing. Britain’s manufacturing sector shrank by 0.3% during the last quarter, dealing another blow to hopes of a “March of the Makers”.
In contrast, the business services and finance sub-sector grew by 0.8%.In contrast, the business services and finance sub-sector grew by 0.8%.
9.55am BST09:559.55am BST09:55
I know we bang on about services being the ‘dominant’ part of the economy. But it’s true.I know we bang on about services being the ‘dominant’ part of the economy. But it’s true.
For all the talk of manufacturing revival, only the service sector is larger than its pre-crisis peak:For all the talk of manufacturing revival, only the service sector is larger than its pre-crisis peak:
9.53am BST09:539.53am BST09:53
GDP: Key charts start hereGDP: Key charts start here
The UK economy has now grown for 10 straight quarters, and bounced back from its weakness at the start of the year:The UK economy has now grown for 10 straight quarters, and bounced back from its weakness at the start of the year:
Updated at 9.55am BSTUpdated at 9.55am BST
9.44am BST09:449.44am BST09:44
UK GDP growth in Q2 leaps to 0.7%, not cold, not too hot. No wonder the PM was so full of beans: up in a mo in Singapore talking corruptionUK GDP growth in Q2 leaps to 0.7%, not cold, not too hot. No wonder the PM was so full of beans: up in a mo in Singapore talking corruption
9.43am BST09:439.43am BST09:43
Osborne: Britain is motoring aheadOsborne: Britain is motoring ahead
Chancellor George Osborne has welcomed today’s figures with a flurry of automotive metaphors:Chancellor George Osborne has welcomed today’s figures with a flurry of automotive metaphors:
GDP growth 0.7%. Shows Britain motoring ahead with economy producing as much per head as ever before. We must stay on road we've set out onGDP growth 0.7%. Shows Britain motoring ahead with economy producing as much per head as ever before. We must stay on road we've set out on
Updated at 10.36am BSTUpdated at 10.36am BST
9.42am BST09:429.42am BST09:42
UK GDP per head back at pre-crisis peakUK GDP per head back at pre-crisis peak
Now this is significant. Britain’s economic output, per person, has finally reached its level achieved before the crisis.Now this is significant. Britain’s economic output, per person, has finally reached its level achieved before the crisis.
The ONS says that:The ONS says that:
The 0.7% increase in GDP growth in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 implies that GDP per head would be broadly equal to the pre-economic downturn peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008.The 0.7% increase in GDP growth in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 implies that GDP per head would be broadly equal to the pre-economic downturn peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008.
ONS says UK GDP per head now "broadly level" with its pre-crisis peakONS says UK GDP per head now "broadly level" with its pre-crisis peak
9.42am BST09:429.42am BST09:42
The total UK economy is now 5.2% higher than its pre-crisis peak in early 2008.The total UK economy is now 5.2% higher than its pre-crisis peak in early 2008.
9.36am BST09:369.36am BST09:36
Once again, Britain’s service sector provided the bulk of the growth in the last quarterOnce again, Britain’s service sector provided the bulk of the growth in the last quarter
.@ONS UK #GDP in Q2 (1st est.) +0.7%. Thank goodness for services... #UKeconomy #GDP http://t.co/ucRgatQ3iO pic.twitter.com/JHHfOp6WNx.@ONS UK #GDP in Q2 (1st est.) +0.7%. Thank goodness for services... #UKeconomy #GDP http://t.co/ucRgatQ3iO pic.twitter.com/JHHfOp6WNx
9.35am BST09:359.35am BST09:35
Read the full reportRead the full report
You can see the full report from the Office for National Statistics here:You can see the full report from the Office for National Statistics here:
Gross Domestic Product Preliminary Estimate, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015Gross Domestic Product Preliminary Estimate, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015
9.34am BST09:349.34am BST09:34
Britain’s agriculture sector shrank by 0.7% during the quarter.Britain’s agriculture sector shrank by 0.7% during the quarter.
9.33am BST09:339.33am BST09:33
Here’s some detail:Here’s some detail:
Britain’s service sector grew by 0.7% during the last quarter, maintaining its dominant contribution to the economy.Britain’s service sector grew by 0.7% during the last quarter, maintaining its dominant contribution to the economy.
Industrial output jumped by 1%.Industrial output jumped by 1%.
Construction was flat, though, with no growth compared to Q1.Construction was flat, though, with no growth compared to Q1.
9.33am BST09:339.33am BST09:33
On an annual basis, the UK economy grew by 2.6% - down from 2.9% three months ago.On an annual basis, the UK economy grew by 2.6% - down from 2.9% three months ago.
9.30am BST09:309.30am BST09:30
UK economy grows by 0.7%UK economy grows by 0.7%
Here we go!Here we go!
Growth across the UK accelerated in the last quarter.Growth across the UK accelerated in the last quarter.
GDP rose by 0.7% in the three months to June, up from 0.4% in the first three months of the year.GDP rose by 0.7% in the three months to June, up from 0.4% in the first three months of the year.
That’s the 10th straight quarter of growth, and bang in line with expectations.That’s the 10th straight quarter of growth, and bang in line with expectations.
More to follow....More to follow....
9.20am BST09:209.20am BST09:20
The pound is dipping a little as traders get edgy with 9.30am BST approaching.....The pound is dipping a little as traders get edgy with 9.30am BST approaching.....
#GBP weakness heading into UK Q2 GDP figure in 15 mins. #headsup#GBP weakness heading into UK Q2 GDP figure in 15 mins. #headsup
9.11am BST09:119.11am BST09:11
Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX, also believes today’s growth data could put the Bank of England in the spotlight:Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX, also believes today’s growth data could put the Bank of England in the spotlight:
An upbeat result would reinforce recent comments from BOE officials expressing concerns about wage inflation and fuel speculation about oncoming tightening.An upbeat result would reinforce recent comments from BOE officials expressing concerns about wage inflation and fuel speculation about oncoming tightening.
Needless to say, such a scenario is likely to bode well for the British Pound.Needless to say, such a scenario is likely to bode well for the British Pound.
Which would be good news for Brits heading abroad for a summer holiday....Which would be good news for Brits heading abroad for a summer holiday....
8.59am BST08:598.59am BST08:59
Just 30 minutes to go......Just 30 minutes to go......
Upcoming event in 30 min [08:30 GMT] - Preliminary UK GDP (Quarter on Quarter, cons:0.7%, prev:0.4%) #forex #fx #financeUpcoming event in 30 min [08:30 GMT] - Preliminary UK GDP (Quarter on Quarter, cons:0.7%, prev:0.4%) #forex #fx #finance
8.59am BST08:598.59am BST08:59
Back in the City, oil giant BP has fallen back into the red as the costs of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico disaster continue to mount.Back in the City, oil giant BP has fallen back into the red as the costs of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico disaster continue to mount.
My (new) colleague Graham Ruddick has the story:My (new) colleague Graham Ruddick has the story:
Related: BP reveals $6.3bn quarterly loss due to Deepwater Horizon billRelated: BP reveals $6.3bn quarterly loss due to Deepwater Horizon bill
8.54am BST08:548.54am BST08:54
There are a range of forecasts for today’s GDP reading - from a punchy 0.8% growth down to a mediocre 0.4%.There are a range of forecasts for today’s GDP reading - from a punchy 0.8% growth down to a mediocre 0.4%.
UK Q2 GDP growth f'cast to rise to 0.7% qq from 0.3%: @ReutersPolls. Range 0.4-0.8%; top 5 most accurate saying 0.7% pic.twitter.com/9uVlWtxOhwUK Q2 GDP growth f'cast to rise to 0.7% qq from 0.3%: @ReutersPolls. Range 0.4-0.8%; top 5 most accurate saying 0.7% pic.twitter.com/9uVlWtxOhw
8.44am BST08:448.44am BST08:44
French bank Société Générale predicts that the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the last quarter - slightly lower than the City consensus of 0.7%.French bank Société Générale predicts that the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the last quarter - slightly lower than the City consensus of 0.7%.
Their global strategist, Kit Juckes, agrees that the Bank of England could soon hike borrowing costs.Their global strategist, Kit Juckes, agrees that the Bank of England could soon hike borrowing costs.
The UK economy is trundling along, and with daily reports of shortages in the labour market, it is trundling closer to the rate lift-off.The UK economy is trundling along, and with daily reports of shortages in the labour market, it is trundling closer to the rate lift-off.
Updated at 8.45am BSTUpdated at 8.45am BST
8.39am BST08:398.39am BST08:39
Over in Greece, officials from its creditors have just been spotted arriving for today’s talks, according to AFP:Over in Greece, officials from its creditors have just been spotted arriving for today’s talks, according to AFP:
Paparazzi à la grecque: Troïka localisée à 10h à la Comptabilité nationale via @protothema http://t.co/zP4ll0Dw5w pic.twitter.com/LBgwHwqqDHPaparazzi à la grecque: Troïka localisée à 10h à la Comptabilité nationale via @protothema http://t.co/zP4ll0Dw5w pic.twitter.com/LBgwHwqqDH
The troika begins work in Athens amid tight security - VIDEO - http://t.co/cPsToKBpGL pic.twitter.com/EGFCIuqVDqThe troika begins work in Athens amid tight security - VIDEO - http://t.co/cPsToKBpGL pic.twitter.com/EGFCIuqVDq
Updated at 9.12am BSTUpdated at 9.12am BST
8.33am BST08:338.33am BST08:33
The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has risen by 30 points in early trading, as investors await today’s GDP figures at 9.30am BST.The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has risen by 30 points in early trading, as investors await today’s GDP figures at 9.30am BST.
Insurance group RSA are leading the risers, soaring 10% after rival Zurich confirmed it might launch a bid.Insurance group RSA are leading the risers, soaring 10% after rival Zurich confirmed it might launch a bid.
Royal Mail, though, are the top faller - down 2.5% after regulator Ofcom suggested it was discriminating against rival delivery firms by charging unfairly high prices.Royal Mail, though, are the top faller - down 2.5% after regulator Ofcom suggested it was discriminating against rival delivery firms by charging unfairly high prices.
Updated at 9.13am BSTUpdated at 9.13am BST
8.24am BST08:248.24am BST08:24
Reasons to be cautious about GDP....Reasons to be cautious about GDP....
Let’s be frank, GDP is a somewhat blunt instrument when it comes to measuring how an economy is performing, for several reasons....Let’s be frank, GDP is a somewhat blunt instrument when it comes to measuring how an economy is performing, for several reasons....
Economist Diane Coyle has written about this issue for us:Economist Diane Coyle has written about this issue for us:
Related: GDP is a mirror on the markets. It must not rule our lives | Diana CoyleRelated: GDP is a mirror on the markets. It must not rule our lives | Diana Coyle
But until policymakers find a better way, we’re stuck with it.But until policymakers find a better way, we’re stuck with it.
8.16am BST08:168.16am BST08:16
Today’s data may show that UK factories and builders struggled in the April-June quarter, while the service sector performed better.Today’s data may show that UK factories and builders struggled in the April-June quarter, while the service sector performed better.
From the Press Association’s preview:From the Press Association’s preview:
Investec economist Chris Hare said the dominant services sector - representing three-quarters of output - was likely to do “most of the legwork” with the beleaguered construction and manufacturing industries set to have shrunk.Investec economist Chris Hare said the dominant services sector - representing three-quarters of output - was likely to do “most of the legwork” with the beleaguered construction and manufacturing industries set to have shrunk.
Scotiabank’s Alan Clarke said 0.7% was “probably the right call” but that monthly data published so far meant that any risks to this were skewed towards a slightly weaker rather than stronger outcome.Scotiabank’s Alan Clarke said 0.7% was “probably the right call” but that monthly data published so far meant that any risks to this were skewed towards a slightly weaker rather than stronger outcome.
8.08am BST08:088.08am BST08:08
Today’s growth figures will also help decide when the Bank of England might start to hike borrowing costs.Today’s growth figures will also help decide when the Bank of England might start to hike borrowing costs.
My colleague Katie Allen explains:My colleague Katie Allen explains:
Economists predict official figures on Tuesday will show GDP growth bounced back in the second quarter after a new-year slowdown.Economists predict official figures on Tuesday will show GDP growth bounced back in the second quarter after a new-year slowdown.
Alongside fading worries about the Greek debt crisis and signs of rising living standards, any such recovery in headline growth could fan expectations that the Bank’s policymakers are readying to raise interest rates, perhaps even before the end of the year.Alongside fading worries about the Greek debt crisis and signs of rising living standards, any such recovery in headline growth could fan expectations that the Bank’s policymakers are readying to raise interest rates, perhaps even before the end of the year.
Here’s Katie’s GDP preview:Here’s Katie’s GDP preview:
Related: UK economic growth figures to ignite interest rate debateRelated: UK economic growth figures to ignite interest rate debate
8.04am BST08:048.04am BST08:04
Britain is the first G7 country to release growth figures for the second quarter of 2015, so this morning’s data will give an early hint of how the global economy is faring (we get growth figures for the US on Thursday)Britain is the first G7 country to release growth figures for the second quarter of 2015, so this morning’s data will give an early hint of how the global economy is faring (we get growth figures for the US on Thursday)
7.51am BST07:517.51am BST07:51
Introduction: UK GDP figures due this morningIntroduction: UK GDP figures due this morning
Good morning.Good morning.
We’re about to learn whether the UK economy strengthened in the last three months.We’re about to learn whether the UK economy strengthened in the last three months.
New GDP figures, due at 9.30am BST, will show how much Britain’s economy grew by between April and June.New GDP figures, due at 9.30am BST, will show how much Britain’s economy grew by between April and June.
Economists predict growth of around 0.7%, which would be an improvement on the 0.4% growth seen at the start of the year.Economists predict growth of around 0.7%, which would be an improvement on the 0.4% growth seen at the start of the year.
As Capital Economics senior UK economist Samuel Tombs put it:As Capital Economics senior UK economist Samuel Tombs put it:
“Encouragingly, the gamut of the survey data suggests that GDP growth is likely to have improved significantly from the 0.4 per cent rate recorded in the first quarter.”“Encouragingly, the gamut of the survey data suggests that GDP growth is likely to have improved significantly from the 0.4 per cent rate recorded in the first quarter.”
And unless the forecasts are wildly inaccurate, that would mean Britain’s economy has grown for 10 quarters in a row.And unless the forecasts are wildly inaccurate, that would mean Britain’s economy has grown for 10 quarters in a row.
We’ve rarely had it so good. Today’s GDP data will confirm UK is enjoying its 3rd-longest spell of growth since 1955. pic.twitter.com/TSlRedG47ZWe’ve rarely had it so good. Today’s GDP data will confirm UK is enjoying its 3rd-longest spell of growth since 1955. pic.twitter.com/TSlRedG47Z
We’ll also be looking to see which parts of the economy did well, and which struggled. Did Britain’s service sector provide the bulk of the growth?We’ll also be looking to see which parts of the economy did well, and which struggled. Did Britain’s service sector provide the bulk of the growth?
We’ll also be tracking other events across the financial markets, the world economy, business and the eurozone.We’ll also be tracking other events across the financial markets, the world economy, business and the eurozone.
On the agenda: China’s stock market which has been volatile today after yesterday’s plunge, and Greece (where technical talks over a third bailout are now underway).On the agenda: China’s stock market which has been volatile today after yesterday’s plunge, and Greece (where technical talks over a third bailout are now underway).
Finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos had pledged that talks will resume “with much more intensity”, in an attempt to reach a deal quickly.Finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos had pledged that talks will resume “with much more intensity”, in an attempt to reach a deal quickly.
There’s also a swathe of company news today, including results from oil giant BP and retailer Next.There’s also a swathe of company news today, including results from oil giant BP and retailer Next.
Breaking: BP swings to second-quarter loss on lower oil prices and Deepwater Horizon charge http://t.co/tYCeELTJqcBreaking: BP swings to second-quarter loss on lower oil prices and Deepwater Horizon charge http://t.co/tYCeELTJqc
Warm weather prompts Next to boost forecasts http://t.co/fEhek7wkV4Warm weather prompts Next to boost forecasts http://t.co/fEhek7wkV4
Updated at 7.52am BSTUpdated at 7.52am BST