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Coalition set to unveil a modest emissions reduction target – politics live Coalition set to unveil a modest emissions reduction target – politics live
(35 minutes later)
10.57am AEST01:57
Politics tragics who hang out on social media far more often than they should will know that Fairfax photographer Alex Ellinghausen snapped a picture at the Canberra Airport on Sunday night of the attorney-general George Brandis in a stylish looking jumper.
Unfortunately the jumper was offset by some sub-optimal footwear. Trainers and jeans should not be seen. It is a trap for 50-something men, a recurring fashion atrocity. Do a quick survey in any shopping mall in the country – you will see plenty a jean teamed with plenty a sand shoe.
Alex’s picture has become what my daughter would describe as “internet famous.” Here is a sample of the homages over the last day or so. Quite marvellous.
Australia's next top attorney-general. #auspol pic.twitter.com/j7W49WFB4a
Bloody hell, it’s the Very Hungry Artsminister! #BrandisJumperDay #freethearts pic.twitter.com/AdH7oPgv2d
#BrandisJumperDay #freethearts pic.twitter.com/3XcfselyVM
10.46am AEST01:46
The Australian’s David Crowe has rejected my characterisation of The Australian’s climate targets story as an “officialish looking drop.” I referenced the story first up on Politics Live this morning.
David would prefer that I characterised the story as a report for the reasons he outlines below.
@murpharoo Just a report. Drop suggests no work, just landed in our lap, PMO called, etc. That is not what happened.
I have told David that a “drop” doesn’t in my mind automatically suggest that prime minister’s office reverses the dump truck into The Australian’s bureau. I wouldn’t actually speculate on another reporter’s sources unless that was unavoidable for some reason.
But given I like and very much respect David and his work, and certainly did not mean to imply any idleness on his part – I’m looping in Politics Live readers so you can see our conversation. Out of respect for him, I shall refer to the story henceforth as a report.
10.30am AEST01:30
Meanwhile, on the twits.
Tony Abbott’s sister, Christine Forster, on this morning’s same sex marriage gee-up by Liberal Warren Entsch.
Kudos to Warren Entsch MP for taking #marriageequality to the @LiberalAus party room. It's a discussion that has to be had #WeCanDoThis
10.25am AEST01:25
Meanwhile, down the front.
10.17am AEST01:1710.17am AEST01:17
Back to the Coalition party room. We are chasing the extent and temper of the same sex marriage debate in the Liberal party meeting, but it looks like the substantive issue of ‘to conscience vote or not to conscience vote’ won’t be resolved this week.Back to the Coalition party room. We are chasing the extent and temper of the same sex marriage debate in the Liberal party meeting, but it looks like the substantive issue of ‘to conscience vote or not to conscience vote’ won’t be resolved this week.
Going into the morning’s discussion about climate, Western Australian backbencher Dennis Jensen is unhappy that information has been telegraphed out of cabinet before going to the party for “proper” debate. I mentioned first up this morning that some backbenchers would be spoiling for a biff on the climate targets, no matter how modest they may be.Going into the morning’s discussion about climate, Western Australian backbencher Dennis Jensen is unhappy that information has been telegraphed out of cabinet before going to the party for “proper” debate. I mentioned first up this morning that some backbenchers would be spoiling for a biff on the climate targets, no matter how modest they may be.
Jensen is one government MP who disputes the climate science – at least he doesn’t buy in to the evidence that humans are contributing to the warming of the planet. He’s also niggly about the process. He’s told reporters at the doors this morning that the prime minister promised a party room debate, but this looks more like a rubber stamping episode. Bringing a pre-determined decision to the party room does not constitute a proper party room discussion.Jensen is one government MP who disputes the climate science – at least he doesn’t buy in to the evidence that humans are contributing to the warming of the planet. He’s also niggly about the process. He’s told reporters at the doors this morning that the prime minister promised a party room debate, but this looks more like a rubber stamping episode. Bringing a pre-determined decision to the party room does not constitute a proper party room discussion.
10.09am AEST01:0910.09am AEST01:09
Shalailah MedhoraShalailah Medhora
Quick welfare update. A Senate committee looking at the impacts of welfare measures like stopping young people from accessing the dole for four weeks, will report its findings later today, ahead of the bill being debated tomorrow. The social services minister, Scott Morrison, has told Macquarie radio tis morning that the bill’s fate is still unclear.Quick welfare update. A Senate committee looking at the impacts of welfare measures like stopping young people from accessing the dole for four weeks, will report its findings later today, ahead of the bill being debated tomorrow. The social services minister, Scott Morrison, has told Macquarie radio tis morning that the bill’s fate is still unclear.
I’m still not confident we will see this bill passed this week.I’m still not confident we will see this bill passed this week.
But the National Welfare Rights Network has written to Senate crossbenchers, urging them to vote against the bill. “We are deeply concerned about the impact that these proposals will have on young people under 25 who are trying to find their footing in today’s tight labour market,” the letter said.But the National Welfare Rights Network has written to Senate crossbenchers, urging them to vote against the bill. “We are deeply concerned about the impact that these proposals will have on young people under 25 who are trying to find their footing in today’s tight labour market,” the letter said.
Updated at 10.24am AESTUpdated at 10.24am AEST
10.01am AEST01:0110.01am AEST01:01
Now "discussion proper" on same sex marriage in Lib party room referred to later meeting @SkyNewsAustNow "discussion proper" on same sex marriage in Lib party room referred to later meeting @SkyNewsAust
9.55am AEST00:559.55am AEST00:55
Sky News political reporter David Lipson.Sky News political reporter David Lipson.
I've been told there's a "level of debate" in the Lib party room now on same sex marriage. Indicates it may not be put to a vote todayI've been told there's a "level of debate" in the Lib party room now on same sex marriage. Indicates it may not be put to a vote today
9.50am AEST00:509.50am AEST00:50
Sky News has a breaking news alert that Liberal MP Warren Entsch has raised same sex marriage in the Liberal party room meeting this morning. The government has to decide whether or not to allow a conscience vote. I’ll keep you posted as we learn any particulars.Sky News has a breaking news alert that Liberal MP Warren Entsch has raised same sex marriage in the Liberal party room meeting this morning. The government has to decide whether or not to allow a conscience vote. I’ll keep you posted as we learn any particulars.
Updated at 9.58am AESTUpdated at 9.58am AEST
9.48am AEST00:489.48am AEST00:48
Shorten tracks the caucus plane back to the ALP conference a few weeks back. This conversation should really come with a trigger warning for those of us who covered the three day event – particularly the final mad Sunday.Shorten tracks the caucus plane back to the ALP conference a few weeks back. This conversation should really come with a trigger warning for those of us who covered the three day event – particularly the final mad Sunday.
Shorten said the ALP conference allowed robust debate. There were goals: 50% renewable energy and 50% women in the parliament. Now everyone knows what Labor stands for, he contends.Shorten said the ALP conference allowed robust debate. There were goals: 50% renewable energy and 50% women in the parliament. Now everyone knows what Labor stands for, he contends.
A smart, modern and fair Australia.A smart, modern and fair Australia.
National conference endorsed Labor’s values again of jobs, education, health and fairness and advance Australia.National conference endorsed Labor’s values again of jobs, education, health and fairness and advance Australia.
(Job done? Don’t think so, Bill.)(Job done? Don’t think so, Bill.)
Updated at 10.22am AESTUpdated at 10.22am AEST
9.43am AEST00:439.43am AEST00:43
The Labor leader Bill Shorten has invited fifty or so of his closest friends with cameras to this morning’s ALP caucus meeting.The Labor leader Bill Shorten has invited fifty or so of his closest friends with cameras to this morning’s ALP caucus meeting.
What have the last six months delivered us? (This would be the six months since the leadership spill in February.)What have the last six months delivered us? (This would be the six months since the leadership spill in February.)
Shorten says there’s no plan for Australia to transition out of the mining boom. There’s still cuts to pensions, family payments, hospitals and schools. Unemployment is up. There’s an anti-scientific crusade against renewable energy. There’s an attack on penalty rates.Shorten says there’s no plan for Australia to transition out of the mining boom. There’s still cuts to pensions, family payments, hospitals and schools. Unemployment is up. There’s an anti-scientific crusade against renewable energy. There’s an attack on penalty rates.
Zing-ERRRR.Zing-ERRRR.
If this is what good government looks like, what on earth does bad government look like?If this is what good government looks like, what on earth does bad government look like?
Updated at 10.23am AESTUpdated at 10.23am AEST
9.38am AEST00:389.38am AEST00:38
Useful chart to visualise the putative emissions reduction target and base years via our data guru Nick Evershed and Climate Institute data.Useful chart to visualise the putative emissions reduction target and base years via our data guru Nick Evershed and Climate Institute data.
Aus emissions target against other countries with diff. base yrs http://t.co/GFqgCsgKkD from @climateinstitut data pic.twitter.com/rPDaq29Y87Aus emissions target against other countries with diff. base yrs http://t.co/GFqgCsgKkD from @climateinstitut data pic.twitter.com/rPDaq29Y87
9.34am AEST00:349.34am AEST00:34
While still in the commentary space, I’ll loop in this analysis from Peter Hartcher of the Sydney Morning Herald this morning about the climate debate in the run-up to the election.While still in the commentary space, I’ll loop in this analysis from Peter Hartcher of the Sydney Morning Herald this morning about the climate debate in the run-up to the election.
If you want to understand the frenetic claim and counter-claim you’re going to hear on this subject, you’ll find this simple, two-point guide indispensable.If you want to understand the frenetic claim and counter-claim you’re going to hear on this subject, you’ll find this simple, two-point guide indispensable.
The political rubric is:The political rubric is:
1. If the argument is decided mainly on climate or environment considerations, Labor wins.1. If the argument is decided mainly on climate or environment considerations, Labor wins.
2. If it’s decided mainly on electricity prices, the Coalition wins.2. If it’s decided mainly on electricity prices, the Coalition wins.
So Labor will be telling us that we have to deal with dangerous climate change; it will promote its ambition to increase Australia’s renewable energy share to 50% over the next 15 years. And the government will be telling us that it is dealing responsibly with climate change, while Labor’s plan would be a giant wrecking ball shattering the economy.So Labor will be telling us that we have to deal with dangerous climate change; it will promote its ambition to increase Australia’s renewable energy share to 50% over the next 15 years. And the government will be telling us that it is dealing responsibly with climate change, while Labor’s plan would be a giant wrecking ball shattering the economy.
The winner is not the one who can provide the best answer. It’s the one who can set the question. If the election is a referendum on the environment, Labor wins. If it’s a referendum on electricity prices, the government wins.The winner is not the one who can provide the best answer. It’s the one who can set the question. If the election is a referendum on the environment, Labor wins. If it’s a referendum on electricity prices, the government wins.
9.25am AEST00:259.25am AEST00:25
I have mentioned the prime minister is looking a bit flat.I have mentioned the prime minister is looking a bit flat.
Dennis Shanahan in The Australian this morning notes “some Liberal MPs are again gossiping about Abbott’s leadership and reminding themselves that they gave their leader until about now to get things back on an even keel” – but – “there are many others fearful this time around of creating more damaging leadership destabilisation.” Shanahan’s thesis in his piece is things are challenging for Tony Abbott and the government six months on from the leadership spill in February, but it’s too late to do anything much about it given the proximity of the by-election in Canning and the election after that.Dennis Shanahan in The Australian this morning notes “some Liberal MPs are again gossiping about Abbott’s leadership and reminding themselves that they gave their leader until about now to get things back on an even keel” – but – “there are many others fearful this time around of creating more damaging leadership destabilisation.” Shanahan’s thesis in his piece is things are challenging for Tony Abbott and the government six months on from the leadership spill in February, but it’s too late to do anything much about it given the proximity of the by-election in Canning and the election after that.
Andrew Bolt meanwhile has a list on his blog. At least I think this is a list, and a list that aspires to be helpful given it includes the bullet point – don’t panic.Andrew Bolt meanwhile has a list on his blog. At least I think this is a list, and a list that aspires to be helpful given it includes the bullet point – don’t panic.
My guess is that the Abbott team may have no more than a month to make changes without seeming completely desperate and just trading concessions for survival. The urgency with which it changed around the time of the February scare vanished, and must be resumed.My guess is that the Abbott team may have no more than a month to make changes without seeming completely desperate and just trading concessions for survival. The urgency with which it changed around the time of the February scare vanished, and must be resumed.
Get more and better advice.Get more and better advice.
What’s the story?What’s the story?
Jobs, jobs, jobs.Jobs, jobs, jobs.
Optimism.Optimism.
What happened to those new faces that were being touted?What happened to those new faces that were being touted?
Stop talking about raising taxes.Stop talking about raising taxes.
Fewer useless fights. More full-hearted good ones.Fewer useless fights. More full-hearted good ones.
The moral dimension of voting Liberal, and don’t tell me it’s dividing us by race. In fact, tell us the opposite.The moral dimension of voting Liberal, and don’t tell me it’s dividing us by race. In fact, tell us the opposite.
Position Abbott more among his kind of people in the media strategy.Position Abbott more among his kind of people in the media strategy.
Loyalty to team, not individual.Loyalty to team, not individual.
Tony Nutt’s long-mooted shift to Canberra from the NSW party is becoming a totemic issue for Abbott’s critics. Why hand them this stick?Tony Nutt’s long-mooted shift to Canberra from the NSW party is becoming a totemic issue for Abbott’s critics. Why hand them this stick?
Look happy.Look happy.
Don’t panic.Don’t panic.
Labor would be a disaster.Labor would be a disaster.
Don’t keep selling the Government as having axed the carbon tax and stopped the boats. That was yesterday. Voters always ask: what will you do for us tomorrow?Don’t keep selling the Government as having axed the carbon tax and stopped the boats. That was yesterday. Voters always ask: what will you do for us tomorrow?
National security is what governments are expected to do. Yes, make the changes we need and highlight differences with Labor. But amping up the rhetoric risks looking like you’re short of other ideas, and makes you seem less reassuring than you need to be in this space.National security is what governments are expected to do. Yes, make the changes we need and highlight differences with Labor. But amping up the rhetoric risks looking like you’re short of other ideas, and makes you seem less reassuring than you need to be in this space.
Updated at 9.35am AESTUpdated at 9.35am AEST
9.06am AEST00:069.06am AEST00:06
Can’t beat snowy roos.Can’t beat snowy roos.
Aus target worse than Canada's 30% - prev'sly the worst industrialised nation. But here's some snowy roos (by Bernie) pic.twitter.com/L9EmCX7UT9Aus target worse than Canada's 30% - prev'sly the worst industrialised nation. But here's some snowy roos (by Bernie) pic.twitter.com/L9EmCX7UT9
9.04am AEST00:049.04am AEST00:04
Speaking of Lenore Taylor, she’s filed a news lead on the climate targets, with some initial reaction.Speaking of Lenore Taylor, she’s filed a news lead on the climate targets, with some initial reaction.
Conservationists and climate campaigners said the pledge, to be taken to the United Nations meeting in Paris in December, would be “pathetically inadequate”.Conservationists and climate campaigners said the pledge, to be taken to the United Nations meeting in Paris in December, would be “pathetically inadequate”.
Business groups had been pushing for a promise closer to 30% below 2005 levels and have also been pleading with the Coalition to drop its opposition to buying emissions permits offshore, which would dramatically lower the cost of meeting the promise.Business groups had been pushing for a promise closer to 30% below 2005 levels and have also been pleading with the Coalition to drop its opposition to buying emissions permits offshore, which would dramatically lower the cost of meeting the promise.
Modelling for the government by leading economist professor Warwick McKibbin is understood to have found the target would shave between 0.02% and 0.04% from GDP in 2030 if international permits were allowed, but at least twice that if they were not.Modelling for the government by leading economist professor Warwick McKibbin is understood to have found the target would shave between 0.02% and 0.04% from GDP in 2030 if international permits were allowed, but at least twice that if they were not.
(The government is opposed to the use of international permits.)(The government is opposed to the use of international permits.)
8.57am AEST23:578.57am AEST23:57
It being Tuesday, the Coalition party room and the Labor caucus will meet shortly.It being Tuesday, the Coalition party room and the Labor caucus will meet shortly.
The shadow environment minister Mark Butler has moved on to the Sky News studio. Butler was asked whether or not Labor will lend bipartisan support to the post 2020 target if it’s weak. Butler isn’t committing one way or another until we all see the details. Wise to wait for the details before pontificating. I’m trying to follow a similar strategy.The shadow environment minister Mark Butler has moved on to the Sky News studio. Butler was asked whether or not Labor will lend bipartisan support to the post 2020 target if it’s weak. Butler isn’t committing one way or another until we all see the details. Wise to wait for the details before pontificating. I’m trying to follow a similar strategy.
Speaking of details, enjoy this piece from my colleague Lenore Taylor about some of the absurdities that get uttered in the carbon debate. Scary numbers, that mean very little.Speaking of details, enjoy this piece from my colleague Lenore Taylor about some of the absurdities that get uttered in the carbon debate. Scary numbers, that mean very little.
8.40am AEST23:408.40am AEST23:40
Speaking of Mr Bowers, he’s been wandering about this morning to capture the traffic through the corridor.Speaking of Mr Bowers, he’s been wandering about this morning to capture the traffic through the corridor.
Senate independent Jacqui Lambie revealed yesterday that her 21-year-old son is addicted to the drug ice.Senate independent Jacqui Lambie revealed yesterday that her 21-year-old son is addicted to the drug ice.
Lambie raised the case of her son in a debate about welfare changes that would remove payments for people in psychiatric institutions who have been charged with a serious offence such as rape, manslaughter or murder.Lambie raised the case of her son in a debate about welfare changes that would remove payments for people in psychiatric institutions who have been charged with a serious offence such as rape, manslaughter or murder.
It’s a gutsy thing to do, and Lambie has been in high demand to talk about an experience that, sadly, too many Australian families can relate to.It’s a gutsy thing to do, and Lambie has been in high demand to talk about an experience that, sadly, too many Australian families can relate to.
Lovely sequence from Mike.Lovely sequence from Mike.
8.26am AEST23:268.26am AEST23:26
Meet a couple of new bricksMeet a couple of new bricks
Politics Live regulars could have predicted that political events yesterday would have prompted Mikearoo to update our #BrickParliament.Politics Live regulars could have predicted that political events yesterday would have prompted Mikearoo to update our #BrickParliament.
Be assured, Mr Bowers worked throughout the night to ensure we were ready for whatever parliamentary Tuesday intended to deliver. Drum roll please. We are delighted to introduce #SpeakerSmith, who will face his first question time later today.Be assured, Mr Bowers worked throughout the night to ensure we were ready for whatever parliamentary Tuesday intended to deliver. Drum roll please. We are delighted to introduce #SpeakerSmith, who will face his first question time later today.
We are also delighted to welcome our good friends from #BrickFeed.We are also delighted to welcome our good friends from #BrickFeed.
In honour of BuzzFeed setting up shop in the parliamentary press gallery, we note here, Mark Di Stefano, hard at work in the gallery with a couple of Guardian Australia rogues, #BrickDaniel and #BrickMurpharoo.In honour of BuzzFeed setting up shop in the parliamentary press gallery, we note here, Mark Di Stefano, hard at work in the gallery with a couple of Guardian Australia rogues, #BrickDaniel and #BrickMurpharoo.
We are the ones not wearing a beret.We are the ones not wearing a beret.
Welcome, new bricks.Welcome, new bricks.
We salute you.We salute you.
8.13am AEST23:138.13am AEST23:13
Both the ABC and Sky News are now reporting the target will have a range from 26% to 28% – rather like the US construction.Both the ABC and Sky News are now reporting the target will have a range from 26% to 28% – rather like the US construction.
Anyone would think there was a tug of war going on in the spin stakes between folks in the government who would have preferred 30% and folks inside the government who would like it if they never had to utter the words climate change.Anyone would think there was a tug of war going on in the spin stakes between folks in the government who would have preferred 30% and folks inside the government who would like it if they never had to utter the words climate change.
Pure speculation on my part.Pure speculation on my part.
7.54am AEST22:547.54am AEST22:54
Good morningGood morning
Hello everyone and welcome to Canberra. Given how deflated the prime minister looked yesterday I hope he’s had a seaweed smoothie and a Monte Carlo biscuit in preparation for the parliamentary day ahead, which threatens to be largish. We expect the government to unveil its post 2020 emissions reductions targets for the UN-led climate talks in Paris later this year.Hello everyone and welcome to Canberra. Given how deflated the prime minister looked yesterday I hope he’s had a seaweed smoothie and a Monte Carlo biscuit in preparation for the parliamentary day ahead, which threatens to be largish. We expect the government to unveil its post 2020 emissions reductions targets for the UN-led climate talks in Paris later this year.
An officialish looking drop in The Australian this morning reports that Abbott “is set to defy US president Barack Obama and other world leaders by releasing a post-2020 target that is lower than that of most advanced economies, on the grounds that Australia must bear the burden of stronger population growth.” (Stop scratching your head, we need to move on.) “In one scenario gaining support last night, ministers considered a 26% reduction on today’s carbon emissions by 2030.”An officialish looking drop in The Australian this morning reports that Abbott “is set to defy US president Barack Obama and other world leaders by releasing a post-2020 target that is lower than that of most advanced economies, on the grounds that Australia must bear the burden of stronger population growth.” (Stop scratching your head, we need to move on.) “In one scenario gaining support last night, ministers considered a 26% reduction on today’s carbon emissions by 2030.”
The paper asserts a more ambitious proposal of 30% being sought by environment minister Greg Hunt and foreign minister Julie Bishop was walked back by the prime minister. (See Andrew (Bolt), I’m holding back those warmists! See!)The paper asserts a more ambitious proposal of 30% being sought by environment minister Greg Hunt and foreign minister Julie Bishop was walked back by the prime minister. (See Andrew (Bolt), I’m holding back those warmists! See!)
Moving forward.Moving forward.
So how does that target compare?So how does that target compare?
As well as being a more modest contribution than many of our trading partners, 26% is well below the Climate Change Authority’s advice that Australia adopt a 30% cut by 2025 and a 40%-60% cut by 2030.As well as being a more modest contribution than many of our trading partners, 26% is well below the Climate Change Authority’s advice that Australia adopt a 30% cut by 2025 and a 40%-60% cut by 2030.
Shadow environment minister Mark Butler has told the ABC this morning would put Australia at the back of the pack and we start from a very high polluting point. Butler says this target does not look consistent with the public policy objective to keep warming a 2 degrees.Shadow environment minister Mark Butler has told the ABC this morning would put Australia at the back of the pack and we start from a very high polluting point. Butler says this target does not look consistent with the public policy objective to keep warming a 2 degrees.
But ahead of today’s Coalition partyroom discussion, government MPs were forecasting a lively conversation about the post-2020 targets, however comparatively modest.But ahead of today’s Coalition partyroom discussion, government MPs were forecasting a lively conversation about the post-2020 targets, however comparatively modest.
Many government MPs question the science of global warming.Many government MPs question the science of global warming.
Let’s power on. The Politics Live comments thread is wide open and waiting for your business, and give Mikearoo and I a shout on the twits if that’s your thing: I’m @murpharoo, he’s @mpbowersLet’s power on. The Politics Live comments thread is wide open and waiting for your business, and give Mikearoo and I a shout on the twits if that’s your thing: I’m @murpharoo, he’s @mpbowers
Here comes Tuesday.Here comes Tuesday.
Updated at 7.56am AESTUpdated at 7.56am AEST