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| Canning byelection: polls close as Liberals tipped to triumph – live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 11.39am BST11:39 | |
| ABC 24 have dusted off election brainiac Antony Green for the night and he’s on hand to tell us what it all means and when there’s a winner. Asked if he thinks this will be a verdict on the prime ministerial change, Green is thoughtful and cautious: | |
| I don’t think it should be viewed in that way. We have to wait and see what the results are. We tend to be speculating about what the results mean when we don’t know what the results are yet. Everyone afterwards will pour through the figures and compare them with past trends and decide whether they are or are not meaningful. I am not sure if it is useful trying to speculate on it now. | |
| 11.33am BST11:33 | |
| We have 135 of the votes counted. Liberal Andrew Hastie is on 63 votes and Matt Keogh is on 51...which doesn’t really tell us anything at all. Much too early, but you can follow the voting live on the electoral commission’s website here. | |
| 11.28am BST11:28 | |
| Important update on the empty room hosting the Labor byelection party | |
| People have started to arrive at Keogh's party. I know you were all concerned. #Canning pic.twitter.com/AC3ARSFvuD | |
| 11.26am BST11:26 | |
| Close to 20% in Canning cast vote before #Libspill | |
| More than 20,000 votes of 112,809 enrolments were cast in Canning before today and 17,000 of those were before Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister, my colleague on the ground in Perth Calla Wahlquist tells me. | |
| 11,000 of those were postal votes and 11,000 were in pre-polling booths with about 6,000 of the pre-polls before Tuesday. Turnbull won the Liberal party leadership ballot on Monday night. | |
| 11.18am BST11:18 | |
| Ah, the traditional rooms empty of a party early on an election night. | |
| I'm told this will fill up and look less like a deserted school formal soon. Volunteers still on booths. #Canning pic.twitter.com/OM5u6pPIGv | |
| 11.13am BST11:13 | |
| Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has been tracked down by reporters in Sydney as he left an event and was asked what result he is expecting in Canning, ABC 24 reports: | |
| A good one, what a great candidate. | |
| 11.10am BST11:10 | |
| Polls have officially closed in Canning. Politicians are fond of saying the only poll that matters is an actual vote by the people - whether they mean it or not - but this week that is actually true. | |
| The last poll done of voters was before Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister and so is basically useless as an indication of voters intentions. | |
| My colleague Calla Wahlquist has done an excellent piece on how the meaning of the byelection has changed, which you can read here. In it she gives us a rundown of what the polls have been saying and what we can expect tonight - which is quite hazy. | |
| A week ago, the race was hard to call. The latest official poll, conducted by Galaxy for the News Corp-owned tabloid the Sunday Times, predicted Hastie would win the two-party-preferred vote 52 to 48. | |
| But that 10% swing toward Labor, away from the comfortable 11.8% margin held by the late Don Randall, was based on phone polling conducted before the change of Liberal leadership and is now a week old. Snap polling conducted since Turnbull was installed as prime minister suggested as much as a 5% bump for theLiberal party in Canning. | |
| 10.47am BST10:47 | 10.47am BST10:47 |
| Good evening, welcome to a rollicking Saturday night as we cheer on the voters in Canning to the end of a byelection campaign in the Western Australia seat. | Good evening, welcome to a rollicking Saturday night as we cheer on the voters in Canning to the end of a byelection campaign in the Western Australia seat. |
| The poll was seen as a potentially devastating verdict on Tony Abbott’s prime ministership but the federal Liberal party has delivered his premature ejection at the beginning of the week. | The poll was seen as a potentially devastating verdict on Tony Abbott’s prime ministership but the federal Liberal party has delivered his premature ejection at the beginning of the week. |
| Swings of 10% were expected but now Malcolm Turnbull has assumed office it is expected to be much smaller and will be a very early voters’ verdict on the leadership change. | Swings of 10% were expected but now Malcolm Turnbull has assumed office it is expected to be much smaller and will be a very early voters’ verdict on the leadership change. |
| Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie was joined by foreign minister Julie Bishop today with some cheeky protesters getting in for a photo opp. | Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie was joined by foreign minister Julie Bishop today with some cheeky protesters getting in for a photo opp. |
| One wonders if that is a Bill Shorten endorsed tactic. Would be pretty brazen example of the pot calling the kettle a tad hypocritical. | One wonders if that is a Bill Shorten endorsed tactic. Would be pretty brazen example of the pot calling the kettle a tad hypocritical. |
| In Labor’s corner we have Matt Keogh who will give Hastie the biggest fight for the seat out of all the candidates, a full list of which you can peruse here. | In Labor’s corner we have Matt Keogh who will give Hastie the biggest fight for the seat out of all the candidates, a full list of which you can peruse here. |
| The seat was made vacant after sitting Liberal member Don Randall died in July. | The seat was made vacant after sitting Liberal member Don Randall died in July. |
| Updated at 10.48am BST | Updated at 10.48am BST |