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| Version 7 | Version 8 |
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| Canning byelection: Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie wins despite 6% swing against party | Canning byelection: Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie wins despite 6% swing against party |
| (6 days later) | |
| 2.31pm BST | 2.31pm BST |
| 14:31 | 14:31 |
| Well, here we are, it’s Saturday night and we’re alive baby, and Canning has a new MP in Liberal Andrew Hastie. | Well, here we are, it’s Saturday night and we’re alive baby, and Canning has a new MP in Liberal Andrew Hastie. |
| Taking a breath, and taking stock of the night, it all unfolded in a fairly regimented and straightforward manner - unlike the last week of the campaign. | Taking a breath, and taking stock of the night, it all unfolded in a fairly regimented and straightforward manner - unlike the last week of the campaign. |
| And with that, I bid you adieu. | And with that, I bid you adieu. |
| Three cheers for #AndrewHastie new member for #Canning👏 pic.twitter.com/wLQUpOR9TS | Three cheers for #AndrewHastie new member for #Canning👏 pic.twitter.com/wLQUpOR9TS |
| Congratulations Andrew Hastie & yr Liberal team for well deserved Canning win. Courage, confidence & vision trumped fear. @JulieBishopMP | Congratulations Andrew Hastie & yr Liberal team for well deserved Canning win. Courage, confidence & vision trumped fear. @JulieBishopMP |
| 2.00pm BST | 2.00pm BST |
| 14:00 | 14:00 |
| Andrew Hastie thanks a long, long list of people and ends his speech with a message for the good burghers of Canning. | Andrew Hastie thanks a long, long list of people and ends his speech with a message for the good burghers of Canning. |
| After a vigorous interview process, you’ve given me a job. I know who my boss is, and I’m going to work hard for you and I ask to be judged on my actions over the next few months. It’s a huge responsibility, and I will work very hard for you. | After a vigorous interview process, you’ve given me a job. I know who my boss is, and I’m going to work hard for you and I ask to be judged on my actions over the next few months. It’s a huge responsibility, and I will work very hard for you. |
| 1.53pm BST | 1.53pm BST |
| 13:53 | 13:53 |
| Andrew Hastie gives the first shout out for the federal Liberals to former prime minister Tony Abbott and thanks him for serving his country. | Andrew Hastie gives the first shout out for the federal Liberals to former prime minister Tony Abbott and thanks him for serving his country. |
| I want to thank and honour the service of Tony Abbott. From day one, he wanted me to succeed. I was immensely proud to have him visit and support me and my family on this campaign and I’m grateful for his support and guidance. He served his country in the highest office in the land, and I want to acknowledge him and thank him for his service to the Australian people. | I want to thank and honour the service of Tony Abbott. From day one, he wanted me to succeed. I was immensely proud to have him visit and support me and my family on this campaign and I’m grateful for his support and guidance. He served his country in the highest office in the land, and I want to acknowledge him and thank him for his service to the Australian people. |
| He also thanks Malcolm Turnbull for his support first as communications minister, then as prime minister. | He also thanks Malcolm Turnbull for his support first as communications minister, then as prime minister. |
| We shared a train ride from the city to Mandurah, and I watched him walk the full length of the train and back talking to people. If that’s any guide to how he’s going to operate as the Prime Minister, the AFP security detail have a big job ahead of them. I thank him for his support and I look forward to working with him to deliver for the people of Canning. | We shared a train ride from the city to Mandurah, and I watched him walk the full length of the train and back talking to people. If that’s any guide to how he’s going to operate as the Prime Minister, the AFP security detail have a big job ahead of them. I thank him for his support and I look forward to working with him to deliver for the people of Canning. |
| He also thanks foreign minister Julie Bishop and finance minister Mathias Cormann. | He also thanks foreign minister Julie Bishop and finance minister Mathias Cormann. |
| 1.49pm BST | 1.49pm BST |
| 13:49 | 13:49 |
| Andrew Hastie names ice as the most important issue in his campaign and says he has spoken to “fathers, mothers, siblings, small business owners, neighbours and friends” and wants to tackle ice with them. | Andrew Hastie names ice as the most important issue in his campaign and says he has spoken to “fathers, mothers, siblings, small business owners, neighbours and friends” and wants to tackle ice with them. |
| I go to Canberra as someone with much to learn. I don’t understand every political process or issue and I won’t pretend to. But I’ll be guided by the values that have been tested in the defence of our nation and that I believe are essential to effective leadership - honour, integrity, compassion, humility, and service. I’llmake mistakes like any new member of Parliament, but I will always strive to do the right thing. I’m going into the Federal Parliament as the newest member who will need the support of my parliamentary colleagues to learn as much as I can, so I can best deliver for the people of Canning. | I go to Canberra as someone with much to learn. I don’t understand every political process or issue and I won’t pretend to. But I’ll be guided by the values that have been tested in the defence of our nation and that I believe are essential to effective leadership - honour, integrity, compassion, humility, and service. I’llmake mistakes like any new member of Parliament, but I will always strive to do the right thing. I’m going into the Federal Parliament as the newest member who will need the support of my parliamentary colleagues to learn as much as I can, so I can best deliver for the people of Canning. |
| He thanks his wife, his brand new baby son, his parents, his friends in the Australian Defence Force. | He thanks his wife, his brand new baby son, his parents, his friends in the Australian Defence Force. |
| I love this party and what it stands for. The belief in the innate worth of the individual. | I love this party and what it stands for. The belief in the innate worth of the individual. |
| 1.45pm BST | 1.45pm BST |
| 13:45 | 13:45 |
| Andrew Hastie declares victory in speech to faithful | Andrew Hastie declares victory in speech to faithful |
| Andrew Hastie is looking relaxed and serious. He has notes but is speaking to the crowd directly. He pays tribute to former member Don Randall and says many people have told him he has “big shoes to fill” and he has taken that to heart. | Andrew Hastie is looking relaxed and serious. He has notes but is speaking to the crowd directly. He pays tribute to former member Don Randall and says many people have told him he has “big shoes to fill” and he has taken that to heart. |
| He says he will continue Randall’s tradition of personalised notepads. | He says he will continue Randall’s tradition of personalised notepads. |
| I’m sure there is a lot of ladies out there who have had his face and name at the top of their shopping lists. | I’m sure there is a lot of ladies out there who have had his face and name at the top of their shopping lists. |
| He asks people to raise their drinks in toast “to Don”. | He asks people to raise their drinks in toast “to Don”. |
| Now he gets in to the victory speech and starts with a bollocking of Canberra, I don’t think anyone is left wondering what he is referring to. | Now he gets in to the victory speech and starts with a bollocking of Canberra, I don’t think anyone is left wondering what he is referring to. |
| This campaign was always about the people of Canning and their concerns. It is quite clear that the people of Canning don’t care about Canberra politicking or tricky games and it is worth noting that London and Moscow are actually closer together than Perth and Canberra themselves. | This campaign was always about the people of Canning and their concerns. It is quite clear that the people of Canning don’t care about Canberra politicking or tricky games and it is worth noting that London and Moscow are actually closer together than Perth and Canberra themselves. |
| 1.42pm BST | 1.42pm BST |
| 13:42 | 13:42 |
| Julie Bishop introducing Andrew Hastie at his election party. | Julie Bishop introducing Andrew Hastie at his election party. |
| She thanks people who voted for Hastie for ensuring Canberra has an outstanding new member of parliament, to the people who did not vote for him she says he will advocate on their behalf and look after their interests. | She thanks people who voted for Hastie for ensuring Canberra has an outstanding new member of parliament, to the people who did not vote for him she says he will advocate on their behalf and look after their interests. |
| She speaks about his SAS background. | She speaks about his SAS background. |
| He’s already served his country. He was prepared to stand up for his values and his beliefs. He was prepared to fight for his values and beliefs, indeed he was prepared to die for them. Now he will serve the people of Canning, the people of Australia as a member of our Federal Parliament. | He’s already served his country. He was prepared to stand up for his values and his beliefs. He was prepared to fight for his values and beliefs, indeed he was prepared to die for them. Now he will serve the people of Canning, the people of Australia as a member of our Federal Parliament. |
| Bishop says she spoke to prime minister Malcolm Turnbull earlier and he is “so proud” to have Hastie as part of his parliamentary team. | Bishop says she spoke to prime minister Malcolm Turnbull earlier and he is “so proud” to have Hastie as part of his parliamentary team. |
| 1.33pm BST | 1.33pm BST |
| 13:33 | 13:33 |
| Labor’s Matt Keogh says the Canning campaign got rid of Tony Abbott. | Labor’s Matt Keogh says the Canning campaign got rid of Tony Abbott. |
| Look, we may have lost the battle of Canning though we’ve had a great achievement in the swings we have achieved and the campaigns we have run through this campaign, but we did win the first war. We did get rid of Tony Abbott. | Look, we may have lost the battle of Canning though we’ve had a great achievement in the swings we have achieved and the campaigns we have run through this campaign, but we did win the first war. We did get rid of Tony Abbott. |
| Big, proper cheers at that point. | Big, proper cheers at that point. |
| With that momentous achievement that we have all had here, that we have been all been a key part of, we need to steel ourselves as a united front, a united front for the next war which will be the general election to make sure we can get behind Bill Shorten so we can advance Australia with a new Labor Government. | With that momentous achievement that we have all had here, that we have been all been a key part of, we need to steel ourselves as a united front, a united front for the next war which will be the general election to make sure we can get behind Bill Shorten so we can advance Australia with a new Labor Government. |
| Keogh says the voters “love” Bill Shorten. | Keogh says the voters “love” Bill Shorten. |
| It has been great being out there with Bill Shorten, the voters love Bill despite what you might read in a newspaper, they have been coming up to him on the train stations, in the shopping centres, it has been fantastic to be able to campaign with Bill Shorten. | It has been great being out there with Bill Shorten, the voters love Bill despite what you might read in a newspaper, they have been coming up to him on the train stations, in the shopping centres, it has been fantastic to be able to campaign with Bill Shorten. |
| He names the key issues as protecting gas reserves and penalty rates, the China free trade agreement, local ship building. | He names the key issues as protecting gas reserves and penalty rates, the China free trade agreement, local ship building. |
| 1.24pm BST | 1.24pm BST |
| 13:24 | 13:24 |
| Labor candidate Matt Keogh concedes | Labor candidate Matt Keogh concedes |
| Matt Keogh says he has rung Andrew Hastie and congratulated him on winning Canning. | Matt Keogh says he has rung Andrew Hastie and congratulated him on winning Canning. |
| He says thousands of people in Canning have voted for Labor for the first time today and that in itself is an achievment. | He says thousands of people in Canning have voted for Labor for the first time today and that in itself is an achievment. |
| Plenty of what I would describe as “muted applause”. | Plenty of what I would describe as “muted applause”. |
| Keogh does his thank yous, the party executive, the branches, the volunteers. | Keogh does his thank yous, the party executive, the branches, the volunteers. |
| I would like to say congratulations to Mr Hastie and to Mr Turnbull for their campaign. | I would like to say congratulations to Mr Hastie and to Mr Turnbull for their campaign. |
| During this campaign,I have to say now as I stand here, as I have been out on the polling booths today, the fire within me to fight for my local area, to fight for WA, to stand up in our national Parliament on behalf of all of those people is greater now than it’s ever been and I really wish to continue that fight into the future. | During this campaign,I have to say now as I stand here, as I have been out on the polling booths today, the fire within me to fight for my local area, to fight for WA, to stand up in our national Parliament on behalf of all of those people is greater now than it’s ever been and I really wish to continue that fight into the future. |
| Keogh is going with the average swing in a byelection caused by a deceased member -which is 2.5% - rather than the average swing in general which is about 5%. | Keogh is going with the average swing in a byelection caused by a deceased member -which is 2.5% - rather than the average swing in general which is about 5%. |
| Right now tonight, we have seen some massive swings in some of our booths. | Right now tonight, we have seen some massive swings in some of our booths. |
| 1.19pm BST | 1.19pm BST |
| 13:19 | 13:19 |
| While we are on stand by for speeches it is worth mentioning the result for the Palmer United Party, which has effectively been a collapse in the vote. | While we are on stand by for speeches it is worth mentioning the result for the Palmer United Party, which has effectively been a collapse in the vote. |
| In 2013 PUP picked up 6,088 votes, which was 6.88% of the vote. With 65% of the vote counted PUP has 1,436 votes, 2.99% of the total. In a touch over two years the party has seen its vote half in the electorate. This does not bode well for MP and leader Clive Palmer come the election next year. | In 2013 PUP picked up 6,088 votes, which was 6.88% of the vote. With 65% of the vote counted PUP has 1,436 votes, 2.99% of the total. In a touch over two years the party has seen its vote half in the electorate. This does not bode well for MP and leader Clive Palmer come the election next year. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.07pm BST | at 2.07pm BST |
| 1.11pm BST | 1.11pm BST |
| 13:11 | 13:11 |
| As we noted earlier in the blog, almost 20% of the votes in the Canning byelection were cast before the change in prime ministership from Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull, will be interesting to see how that affects the swing which is 6.14% against the Liberal party on current counting. | As we noted earlier in the blog, almost 20% of the votes in the Canning byelection were cast before the change in prime ministership from Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull, will be interesting to see how that affects the swing which is 6.14% against the Liberal party on current counting. |
| 1.02pm BST | 1.02pm BST |
| 13:02 | 13:02 |
| Liberals win Canning byelection with swing of 6% against | Liberals win Canning byelection with swing of 6% against |
| We are edging ever so closer to concession and victor speeches. With more than 30% of the vote counted we are going to call it as a comfortable win for the Liberal Andrew Hastie, with a swing of about 6% against the party. On current 2PP it is a swing of 6.44%. | We are edging ever so closer to concession and victor speeches. With more than 30% of the vote counted we are going to call it as a comfortable win for the Liberal Andrew Hastie, with a swing of about 6% against the party. On current 2PP it is a swing of 6.44%. |
| A swing of 5% against the government is fairly stock standard for a by-election so as a verdict on the prime ministerial change it’s not a glowing endorsement for Malcolm Turnbull, nor a great result for the Labor party. A draw, really. | A swing of 5% against the government is fairly stock standard for a by-election so as a verdict on the prime ministerial change it’s not a glowing endorsement for Malcolm Turnbull, nor a great result for the Labor party. A draw, really. |
| Before Tony Abbott was despatched from the prime minister’s office polling had the seat as on track for a 10% swing against the Liberal party. | Before Tony Abbott was despatched from the prime minister’s office polling had the seat as on track for a 10% swing against the Liberal party. |
| 12.59pm BST | 12.59pm BST |
| 12:59 | 12:59 |
| Labor's Matt Keogh arrives at election party | Labor's Matt Keogh arrives at election party |
| Matt Keogh arrives at Mandurah Bowling Club to rousing applause from the faithful. #canningvotes7 pic.twitter.com/Q62GDkGj7o | Matt Keogh arrives at Mandurah Bowling Club to rousing applause from the faithful. #canningvotes7 pic.twitter.com/Q62GDkGj7o |
| 12.52pm BST | 12.52pm BST |
| 12:52 | 12:52 |
| Andrew Hastie arrives at election party | Andrew Hastie arrives at election party |
| Andrew Hastie has arrived to applause & congratulations. The Liberals claiming victory in #Canning @7NewsPerth pic.twitter.com/Q1x2nPqBna | Andrew Hastie has arrived to applause & congratulations. The Liberals claiming victory in #Canning @7NewsPerth pic.twitter.com/Q1x2nPqBna |
| 12.52pm BST | 12.52pm BST |
| 12:52 | 12:52 |
| Back to the counting, it is a swing of 6.59% against the Liberals at the moment. On two party preferred Liberal Andrew Hastie is on 55.22% of the vote and Labor’s Matt Keogh is on 44.78%, according to electoral commission numbers. | Back to the counting, it is a swing of 6.59% against the Liberals at the moment. On two party preferred Liberal Andrew Hastie is on 55.22% of the vote and Labor’s Matt Keogh is on 44.78%, according to electoral commission numbers. |
| 30.38% of the vote counted. | 30.38% of the vote counted. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.54pm BST | at 12.54pm BST |
| 12.47pm BST | 12.47pm BST |
| 12:47 | 12:47 |
| Mathias Cormann says likely win is under Malcolm Turnbull | Mathias Cormann says likely win is under Malcolm Turnbull |
| Finance minister and Tony Abbott supporter Mathias Cormann says a win tonight is a win for the Liberal party under the prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. | Finance minister and Tony Abbott supporter Mathias Cormann says a win tonight is a win for the Liberal party under the prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. |
| He is being interviewed by ABC Perth on Periscope and while he starts of cautious he is pretty much talking like a winner by the end. | He is being interviewed by ABC Perth on Periscope and while he starts of cautious he is pretty much talking like a winner by the end. |
| Votes coming in are very encouraging I look forward to a successful outcome at the end of the night. | Votes coming in are very encouraging I look forward to a successful outcome at the end of the night. |
| Asked if Liberals would have had a win in Canning under the prime ministership of Tony Abbott, Cormann says “nobody will ever know”. | Asked if Liberals would have had a win in Canning under the prime ministership of Tony Abbott, Cormann says “nobody will ever know”. |
| We did change leader, we did change prime minister, that is obviously the context this campaign is finishing in and the result tonight is a result for the Liberal party under the leadership of Malcolm Turnbull. | We did change leader, we did change prime minister, that is obviously the context this campaign is finishing in and the result tonight is a result for the Liberal party under the leadership of Malcolm Turnbull. |
| Asked earlier how confident he is that Andrew Hastie has won Cormann said: | Asked earlier how confident he is that Andrew Hastie has won Cormann said: |
| I’m quietly confident, obviously been a hard fought campaign in last five to six weeks Andrew Hastie has done a great job..we haven’t taken anything for granted a long the way. | I’m quietly confident, obviously been a hard fought campaign in last five to six weeks Andrew Hastie has done a great job..we haven’t taken anything for granted a long the way. |
| Today it looks like they [the Canning voters] have provided him with support. | Today it looks like they [the Canning voters] have provided him with support. |
| 12.30pm BST | 12.30pm BST |
| 12:30 | 12:30 |
| LIBERALS UPBEAT: Mood at Liberal #Canning HQ is decidedly festive among party heavyweights and volunteers. pic.twitter.com/qhVhaLKnAd | LIBERALS UPBEAT: Mood at Liberal #Canning HQ is decidedly festive among party heavyweights and volunteers. pic.twitter.com/qhVhaLKnAd |
| 12.29pm BST | 12.29pm BST |
| 12:29 | 12:29 |
| Antony Green calls Canning for Liberal Andrew Hastie | Antony Green calls Canning for Liberal Andrew Hastie |
| ABC’s Antony Green has called the election for Liberal Andrew Hastie. | ABC’s Antony Green has called the election for Liberal Andrew Hastie. |
| Just to look at those raw figures at the top there again, Andrew Hastie has won that election and will win it with about a margin of about 6%. | Just to look at those raw figures at the top there again, Andrew Hastie has won that election and will win it with about a margin of about 6%. |
| What does it mean? | What does it mean? |
| I think this result will sort of be in that neutral territory of neither bad for the Government nor bad for the Opposition. It’s about par with a 5% is the average swing over the last 30 years at by-elections. | I think this result will sort of be in that neutral territory of neither bad for the Government nor bad for the Opposition. It’s about par with a 5% is the average swing over the last 30 years at by-elections. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.31pm BST | at 12.31pm BST |
| 12.26pm BST | 12.26pm BST |
| 12:26 | 12:26 |
| From the ground in Canning, my colleague Calla Wahlquist reports from the Labor party, including a hilarious tidbit about a News Corp photographer: | From the ground in Canning, my colleague Calla Wahlquist reports from the Labor party, including a hilarious tidbit about a News Corp photographer: |
| Clutching pints of beer and nursing sunburn, the Labor volunteers have began filing into a function room at the Mandurah Bowls Club. | Clutching pints of beer and nursing sunburn, the Labor volunteers have began filing into a function room at the Mandurah Bowls Club. |
| They have spent the day handing out how-to-vote cards at Canning’s 53 polling booths, and now watch as the first results coming in reflect what the opinion polls predicted, but what they have feared - the Liberal’s candidate Andrew Hastie is ahead by about six points in the two-party-preferred vote. | They have spent the day handing out how-to-vote cards at Canning’s 53 polling booths, and now watch as the first results coming in reflect what the opinion polls predicted, but what they have feared - the Liberal’s candidate Andrew Hastie is ahead by about six points in the two-party-preferred vote. |
| A slight stir was caused by the appearance of Daniel Wilkins, a photographer with News Corp’s Perth masthead, The Sunday Times. Wilkins has been persistently mistaken for the Labor candidate, Matt Keogh for the past four weeks, including by Labor volunteers working polling booths today and, I’m told, by his own son. | A slight stir was caused by the appearance of Daniel Wilkins, a photographer with News Corp’s Perth masthead, The Sunday Times. Wilkins has been persistently mistaken for the Labor candidate, Matt Keogh for the past four weeks, including by Labor volunteers working polling booths today and, I’m told, by his own son. |
| The real Keogh is yet to make an appearance - he’s expected in the next half an hour. | The real Keogh is yet to make an appearance - he’s expected in the next half an hour. |
| Despite the reduced swing, which by early indication is not enough to beat the 11.8 margin left by the late Don Randall, Labor’s red-shirted army were upbeat. Kelly McManus, the field campaign manager for the by-election, said the reception from voters today was positive. | Despite the reduced swing, which by early indication is not enough to beat the 11.8 margin left by the late Don Randall, Labor’s red-shirted army were upbeat. Kelly McManus, the field campaign manager for the by-election, said the reception from voters today was positive. |
| No real personalities at Keogh's election night party. You'd think a few Labor pollies would pop down. #Canning pic.twitter.com/YjZP496wxI | No real personalities at Keogh's election night party. You'd think a few Labor pollies would pop down. #Canning pic.twitter.com/YjZP496wxI |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.27pm BST | at 12.27pm BST |
| 12.18pm BST | 12.18pm BST |
| 12:18 | 12:18 |
| It is looking increasingly like a Liberal win in the Canning byelection. Latest figures from ABC’s poll brainiac and election authority Antony Green is predicting a Liberal win with a 6% swing against the party. | It is looking increasingly like a Liberal win in the Canning byelection. Latest figures from ABC’s poll brainiac and election authority Antony Green is predicting a Liberal win with a 6% swing against the party. |
| His figures have Labor on 33.8% of the primary vote and Liberal on 47.9% | His figures have Labor on 33.8% of the primary vote and Liberal on 47.9% |
| That’s a swing of 5.8% to Labor but about half of the 11% swing required for the seat to change. | That’s a swing of 5.8% to Labor but about half of the 11% swing required for the seat to change. |
| Interestingly, Green notes that Palmer United Party is currently on about half of the vote it received in the 2013 election. | Interestingly, Green notes that Palmer United Party is currently on about half of the vote it received in the 2013 election. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.20pm BST | at 12.20pm BST |
| 12.11pm BST | 12.11pm BST |
| 12:11 | 12:11 |
| Assistant immigration minister Michaelia Cash has told Sky News she is quietly confident about a Liberal win in Canning. | Assistant immigration minister Michaelia Cash has told Sky News she is quietly confident about a Liberal win in Canning. |
| We had a very, very positive mood all day. Our volunteers were quite literally out in force and certainly the atmosphere was a very good one. | We had a very, very positive mood all day. Our volunteers were quite literally out in force and certainly the atmosphere was a very good one. |
| Asked what she was hearing about results, Cash responded: | Asked what she was hearing about results, Cash responded: |
| We are quietly confident but again booths called out are a very, very small amount of votes counted. | We are quietly confident but again booths called out are a very, very small amount of votes counted. |
| 12.05pm BST | 12.05pm BST |
| 12:05 | 12:05 |
| An absence with apologies at Labor’s Matt Keogh party is federal MP Alannah MacTiernan. | An absence with apologies at Labor’s Matt Keogh party is federal MP Alannah MacTiernan. |
| She has explained: | She has explained: |
| @callapilla Had to make a mercy dash to Europe to look after an injured partner - but there in spirit! | @callapilla Had to make a mercy dash to Europe to look after an injured partner - but there in spirit! |