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| Canning byelection: early counting shows Liberals likely to retain seat – live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 12.47pm BST12:47 | |
| Mathias Cormann says likely win is under Malcolm Turnbull | |
| Finance minister and Tony Abbott supporter Mathias Cormann says a win tonight is a win for the Liberal party under the prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. | |
| He is being interviewed by ABC Perth on Periscope and while he starts of cautious he is pretty much talking like a winner by the end. | |
| Votes coming in are very encouraging I look forward to a successful outcome at the end of the night. | |
| Asked if Liberals would have had a win in Canning under the prime ministership of Tony Abbott, Cormann says “nobody will ever know”. | |
| We did change leader, we did change prime minister, that is obviously the context this campaign is finishing in and the result tonight is a result for the Liberal party under the leadership of Malcolm Turnbull. | |
| Asked earlier how confident he is that Andrew Hastie has won Cormann said: | |
| I’m quietly confident, obviously been a hard fought campaign in last five to six weeks Andrew Hastie has done a great job..we haven’t taken anything for granted a long the way. | |
| Today it looks like they [the Canning voters] have provided him with support. | |
| 12.30pm BST12:30 | |
| LIBERALS UPBEAT: Mood at Liberal #Canning HQ is decidedly festive among party heavyweights and volunteers. pic.twitter.com/qhVhaLKnAd | |
| 12.29pm BST12:29 | |
| Antony Green calls Canning for Liberal Andrew Hastie | |
| ABC’s Antony Green has called the election for Liberal Andrew Hastie. | |
| Just to look at those raw figures at the top there again, Andrew Hastie has won that election and will win it with about a margin of about 6%. | |
| What does it mean? | |
| I think this result will sort of be in that neutral territory of neither bad for the Government nor bad for the Opposition. It’s about par with a 5% is the average swing over the last 30 years at by-elections. | |
| Updated at 12.31pm BST | |
| 12.26pm BST12:26 | |
| From the ground in Canning, my colleague Calla Wahlquist reports from the Labor party, including a hilarious tidbit about a News Corp photographer: | |
| Clutching pints of beer and nursing sunburn, the Labor volunteers have began filing into a function room at the Mandurah Bowls Club. | |
| They have spent the day handing out how-to-vote cards at Canning’s 53 polling booths, and now watch as the first results coming in reflect what the opinion polls predicted, but what they have feared - the Liberal’s candidate Andrew Hastie is ahead by about six points in the two-party-preferred vote. | |
| A slight stir was caused by the appearance of Daniel Wilkins, a photographer with News Corp’s Perth masthead, The Sunday Times. Wilkins has been persistently mistaken for the Labor candidate, Matt Keogh for the past four weeks, including by Labor volunteers working polling booths today and, I’m told, by his own son. | |
| The real Keogh is yet to make an appearance - he’s expected in the next half an hour. | |
| Despite the reduced swing, which by early indication is not enough to beat the 11.8 margin left by the late Don Randall, Labor’s red-shirted army were upbeat. Kelly McManus, the field campaign manager for the by-election, said the reception from voters today was positive. | |
| No real personalities at Keogh's election night party. You'd think a few Labor pollies would pop down. #Canning pic.twitter.com/YjZP496wxI | |
| Updated at 12.27pm BST | |
| 12.18pm BST12:18 | |
| It is looking increasingly like a Liberal win in the Canning byelection. Latest figures from ABC’s poll brainiac and election authority Antony Green is predicting a Liberal win with a 6% swing against the party. | |
| His figures have Labor on 33.8% of the primary vote and Liberal on 47.9% | |
| That’s a swing of 5.8% to Labor but about half of the 11% swing required for the seat to change. | |
| Interestingly, Green notes that Palmer United Party is currently on about half of the vote it received in the 2013 election. | |
| Updated at 12.20pm BST | |
| 12.11pm BST12:11 | 12.11pm BST12:11 |
| Assistant immigration minister Michaelia Cash has told Sky News she is quietly confident about a Liberal win in Canning. | Assistant immigration minister Michaelia Cash has told Sky News she is quietly confident about a Liberal win in Canning. |
| We had a very, very positive mood all day. Our volunteers were quite literally out in force and certainly the atmosphere was a very good one. | We had a very, very positive mood all day. Our volunteers were quite literally out in force and certainly the atmosphere was a very good one. |
| Asked what she was hearing about results, Cash responded: | Asked what she was hearing about results, Cash responded: |
| We are quietly confident but again booths called out are a very, very small amount of votes counted. | We are quietly confident but again booths called out are a very, very small amount of votes counted. |
| 12.05pm BST12:05 | 12.05pm BST12:05 |
| An absence with apologies at Labor’s Matt Keogh party is federal MP Alannah MacTiernan. | An absence with apologies at Labor’s Matt Keogh party is federal MP Alannah MacTiernan. |
| She has explained: | She has explained: |
| @callapilla Had to make a mercy dash to Europe to look after an injured partner - but there in spirit! | @callapilla Had to make a mercy dash to Europe to look after an injured partner - but there in spirit! |
| 11.59am BST11:59 | 11.59am BST11:59 |
| Voting count update: | Voting count update: |
| 5,340 votes counted with Liberal Andrew Hastie on 2,456 and Labor’s Matt Keogh on 1,699. | 5,340 votes counted with Liberal Andrew Hastie on 2,456 and Labor’s Matt Keogh on 1,699. |
| With 1.3% of the primary vote counted there is a swing of 5.7% against the Liberals, 7.5% to Labor and 0.2% to Greens. | With 1.3% of the primary vote counted there is a swing of 5.7% against the Liberals, 7.5% to Labor and 0.2% to Greens. |
| 11.51am BST11:51 | 11.51am BST11:51 |
| Over at Andrew Hastie HQ: | Over at Andrew Hastie HQ: |
| Winners are grinners? @JulieBishopMP @SenatorCash #canningvotes pic.twitter.com/Fqp8oY2zmf (@davidlipson) | Winners are grinners? @JulieBishopMP @SenatorCash #canningvotes pic.twitter.com/Fqp8oY2zmf (@davidlipson) |
| 11.39am BST11:39 | 11.39am BST11:39 |
| ABC 24 have dusted off election brainiac Antony Green for the night and he’s on hand to tell us what it all means and when there’s a winner. Asked if he thinks this will be a verdict on the prime ministerial change, Green is thoughtful and cautious: | ABC 24 have dusted off election brainiac Antony Green for the night and he’s on hand to tell us what it all means and when there’s a winner. Asked if he thinks this will be a verdict on the prime ministerial change, Green is thoughtful and cautious: |
| I don’t think it should be viewed in that way. We have to wait and see what the results are. We tend to be speculating about what the results mean when we don’t know what the results are yet. Everyone afterwards will pour through the figures and compare them with past trends and decide whether they are or are not meaningful. I am not sure if it is useful trying to speculate on it now. | I don’t think it should be viewed in that way. We have to wait and see what the results are. We tend to be speculating about what the results mean when we don’t know what the results are yet. Everyone afterwards will pour through the figures and compare them with past trends and decide whether they are or are not meaningful. I am not sure if it is useful trying to speculate on it now. |
| 11.33am BST11:33 | 11.33am BST11:33 |
| We have 135 of the votes counted. Liberal Andrew Hastie is on 63 votes and Matt Keogh is on 51...which doesn’t really tell us anything at all. Much too early, but you can follow the voting live on the electoral commission’s website here. | We have 135 of the votes counted. Liberal Andrew Hastie is on 63 votes and Matt Keogh is on 51...which doesn’t really tell us anything at all. Much too early, but you can follow the voting live on the electoral commission’s website here. |
| 11.28am BST11:28 | 11.28am BST11:28 |
| Important update on the empty room hosting the Labor byelection party | Important update on the empty room hosting the Labor byelection party |
| People have started to arrive at Keogh's party. I know you were all concerned. #Canning pic.twitter.com/AC3ARSFvuD | People have started to arrive at Keogh's party. I know you were all concerned. #Canning pic.twitter.com/AC3ARSFvuD |
| 11.26am BST11:26 | 11.26am BST11:26 |
| Close to 20% in Canning cast vote before #Libspill | Close to 20% in Canning cast vote before #Libspill |
| More than 20,000 votes of 112,809 enrolments were cast in Canning before today and 17,000 of those were before Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister, my colleague on the ground in Perth Calla Wahlquist tells me. | More than 20,000 votes of 112,809 enrolments were cast in Canning before today and 17,000 of those were before Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister, my colleague on the ground in Perth Calla Wahlquist tells me. |
| 11,000 of those were postal votes and 11,000 were in pre-polling booths with about 6,000 of the pre-polls before Tuesday. Turnbull won the Liberal party leadership ballot on Monday night. | 11,000 of those were postal votes and 11,000 were in pre-polling booths with about 6,000 of the pre-polls before Tuesday. Turnbull won the Liberal party leadership ballot on Monday night. |
| 11.18am BST11:18 | 11.18am BST11:18 |
| Ah, the traditional rooms empty of a party early on an election night. | Ah, the traditional rooms empty of a party early on an election night. |
| I'm told this will fill up and look less like a deserted school formal soon. Volunteers still on booths. #Canning pic.twitter.com/OM5u6pPIGv | I'm told this will fill up and look less like a deserted school formal soon. Volunteers still on booths. #Canning pic.twitter.com/OM5u6pPIGv |
| 11.13am BST11:13 | 11.13am BST11:13 |
| Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has been tracked down by reporters in Sydney as he left an event and was asked what result he is expecting in Canning, ABC 24 reports: | Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has been tracked down by reporters in Sydney as he left an event and was asked what result he is expecting in Canning, ABC 24 reports: |
| A good one, what a great candidate. | A good one, what a great candidate. |
| 11.10am BST11:10 | 11.10am BST11:10 |
| Polls have officially closed in Canning. Politicians are fond of saying the only poll that matters is an actual vote by the people - whether they mean it or not - but this week that is actually true. | Polls have officially closed in Canning. Politicians are fond of saying the only poll that matters is an actual vote by the people - whether they mean it or not - but this week that is actually true. |
| The last poll done of voters was before Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister and so is basically useless as an indication of voters intentions. | The last poll done of voters was before Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister and so is basically useless as an indication of voters intentions. |
| My colleague Calla Wahlquist has done an excellent piece on how the meaning of the byelection has changed, which you can read here. In it she gives us a rundown of what the polls have been saying and what we can expect tonight - which is quite hazy. | My colleague Calla Wahlquist has done an excellent piece on how the meaning of the byelection has changed, which you can read here. In it she gives us a rundown of what the polls have been saying and what we can expect tonight - which is quite hazy. |
| A week ago, the race was hard to call. The latest official poll, conducted by Galaxy for the News Corp-owned tabloid the Sunday Times, predicted Hastie would win the two-party-preferred vote 52 to 48. | A week ago, the race was hard to call. The latest official poll, conducted by Galaxy for the News Corp-owned tabloid the Sunday Times, predicted Hastie would win the two-party-preferred vote 52 to 48. |
| But that 10% swing toward Labor, away from the comfortable 11.8% margin held by the late Don Randall, was based on phone polling conducted before the change of Liberal leadership and is now a week old. Snap polling conducted since Turnbull was installed as prime minister suggested as much as a 5% bump for theLiberal party in Canning. | But that 10% swing toward Labor, away from the comfortable 11.8% margin held by the late Don Randall, was based on phone polling conducted before the change of Liberal leadership and is now a week old. Snap polling conducted since Turnbull was installed as prime minister suggested as much as a 5% bump for theLiberal party in Canning. |
| 10.47am BST10:47 | 10.47am BST10:47 |
| Good evening, welcome to a rollicking Saturday night as we cheer on the voters in Canning to the end of a byelection campaign in the Western Australia seat. | Good evening, welcome to a rollicking Saturday night as we cheer on the voters in Canning to the end of a byelection campaign in the Western Australia seat. |
| The poll was seen as a potentially devastating verdict on Tony Abbott’s prime ministership but the federal Liberal party has delivered his premature ejection at the beginning of the week. | The poll was seen as a potentially devastating verdict on Tony Abbott’s prime ministership but the federal Liberal party has delivered his premature ejection at the beginning of the week. |
| Swings of 10% were expected but now Malcolm Turnbull has assumed office it is expected to be much smaller and will be a very early voters’ verdict on the leadership change. | Swings of 10% were expected but now Malcolm Turnbull has assumed office it is expected to be much smaller and will be a very early voters’ verdict on the leadership change. |
| Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie was joined by foreign minister Julie Bishop today with some cheeky protesters getting in for a photo opp. | Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie was joined by foreign minister Julie Bishop today with some cheeky protesters getting in for a photo opp. |
| One wonders if that is a Bill Shorten endorsed tactic. Would be pretty brazen example of the pot calling the kettle a tad hypocritical. | One wonders if that is a Bill Shorten endorsed tactic. Would be pretty brazen example of the pot calling the kettle a tad hypocritical. |
| In Labor’s corner we have Matt Keogh who will give Hastie the biggest fight for the seat out of all the candidates, a full list of which you can peruse here. | In Labor’s corner we have Matt Keogh who will give Hastie the biggest fight for the seat out of all the candidates, a full list of which you can peruse here. |
| The seat was made vacant after sitting Liberal member Don Randall died in July. | The seat was made vacant after sitting Liberal member Don Randall died in July. |
| Updated at 10.48am BST | Updated at 10.48am BST |