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| Turkey violence: How dangerous is instability? | Turkey violence: How dangerous is instability? |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| Turkey has suffered its worst ever terrorist atrocity, in the heart of capital Ankara, and the country is weeks away from a re-run of an inconclusive general election. | Turkey has suffered its worst ever terrorist atrocity, in the heart of capital Ankara, and the country is weeks away from a re-run of an inconclusive general election. |
| For so long a beacon of stability between Europe and the Middle East, Turkey is fighting Kurdish militants in its restive east and struggling to prevent violence spreading from across its border with Syria, where Islamic State (IS) militants have seized swathes of territory. | For so long a beacon of stability between Europe and the Middle East, Turkey is fighting Kurdish militants in its restive east and struggling to prevent violence spreading from across its border with Syria, where Islamic State (IS) militants have seized swathes of territory. |
| So how tense is Turkey and what are the risks of the crisis deteriorating? | So how tense is Turkey and what are the risks of the crisis deteriorating? |
| How dangerous is the current situation in Turkey? | How dangerous is the current situation in Turkey? |
| The most serious violence in Turkey has taken place away from the big cities until now, in the mainly Kurdish areas of the east and south-east, where the Turkish military has battled the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) for decades. | The most serious violence in Turkey has taken place away from the big cities until now, in the mainly Kurdish areas of the east and south-east, where the Turkish military has battled the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) for decades. |
| Political violence in the main cities was largely confined to party offices, particularly those of the left-wing and pro-Kurdish HDP (Peoples' Democratic Party). | Political violence in the main cities was largely confined to party offices, particularly those of the left-wing and pro-Kurdish HDP (Peoples' Democratic Party). |
| But the twin bombing outside Ankara railway station was within a short distance of key government ministries, as well as Turkey's MIT intelligence HQ. | But the twin bombing outside Ankara railway station was within a short distance of key government ministries, as well as Turkey's MIT intelligence HQ. |
| For millions of tourists every year, Turkey remains an attractive, safe destination, but France and the UK have updated their travel advice after the Ankara attacks, urging caution. | For millions of tourists every year, Turkey remains an attractive, safe destination, but France and the UK have updated their travel advice after the Ankara attacks, urging caution. |
| UK visitors are urged to steer clear of central Ankara as well as areas bordering Syria and Iraq, while France says all French nationals should exercise caution, even in tourist areas. Political gatherings and demonstrations are highlighted as a possible risk. | UK visitors are urged to steer clear of central Ankara as well as areas bordering Syria and Iraq, while France says all French nationals should exercise caution, even in tourist areas. Political gatherings and demonstrations are highlighted as a possible risk. |
| Now Turks themselves are afraid of going to shopping centres and open spaces like Taksim Square, according to Maya Arakon, associate professor of International Relations at Suleyman Sah University in Istanbul. | Now Turks themselves are afraid of going to shopping centres and open spaces like Taksim Square, according to Maya Arakon, associate professor of International Relations at Suleyman Sah University in Istanbul. |
| "Turkey is a dangerous place and going through a dangerous transition period, but it won't fall apart," she says. | "Turkey is a dangerous place and going through a dangerous transition period, but it won't fall apart," she says. |
| Ankara bombings: Read more | Ankara bombings: Read more |
| Who is behind Ankara attack? - Could Islamic State have staged such an atrocity? | Who is behind Ankara attack? - Could Islamic State have staged such an atrocity? |
| "This is the worst scene I've ever seen" - Shock and anger in Ankara as mourning begins | "This is the worst scene I've ever seen" - Shock and anger in Ankara as mourning begins |
| Who are the Kurds? - The long history of the Middle East's fourth-largest ethnic group | Who are the Kurds? - The long history of the Middle East's fourth-largest ethnic group |
| Turkey v Islamic State v the Kurds - What's going on? | Turkey v Islamic State v the Kurds - What's going on? |
| What is 'Islamic State'? - A profile of the militant group | What is 'Islamic State'? - A profile of the militant group |
| How much of a threat is there to Turkey's political stability? | How much of a threat is there to Turkey's political stability? |
| Turkey's political fate is at a crossroads and elections are taking place on 1 November. | Turkey's political fate is at a crossroads and elections are taking place on 1 November. |
| The AK party, rooted in political Islam, has ruled Turkey since 2002 but former prime minister and now President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is intent on bolstering his powers, an ambition that has polarised voters. | The AK party, rooted in political Islam, has ruled Turkey since 2002 but former prime minister and now President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is intent on bolstering his powers, an ambition that has polarised voters. |
| Mr Erdogan's party failed to secure the necessary majority in June elections and violence that broke out two days before the poll in the south-east has intensified and spread. | Mr Erdogan's party failed to secure the necessary majority in June elections and violence that broke out two days before the poll in the south-east has intensified and spread. |
| The target on 5 June was the pro-Kurdish HDP, which two days later secured more than 13% of the vote, denying the AKP any chance of a majority. | The target on 5 June was the pro-Kurdish HDP, which two days later secured more than 13% of the vote, denying the AKP any chance of a majority. |
| It was the murder the following month of dozens of young activists in Suruc, close to the Syrian border, that suggested that political violence was threatening Turkish society. Those targeted were a mix of Kurdish and left-wing activists planning to travel into northern Syria to help rebuild Kobane, a town devastated by Islamic State militants. | It was the murder the following month of dozens of young activists in Suruc, close to the Syrian border, that suggested that political violence was threatening Turkish society. Those targeted were a mix of Kurdish and left-wing activists planning to travel into northern Syria to help rebuild Kobane, a town devastated by Islamic State militants. |
| Although the Suruc bomber has been linked to IS, the motivation is unclear. "There's no confidence in Turkey's authorities. Even if the government reveals something I'm not sure a large section of the population will believe them," says Prof Ersin Kalaycioglu of Sabanci University. | Although the Suruc bomber has been linked to IS, the motivation is unclear. "There's no confidence in Turkey's authorities. Even if the government reveals something I'm not sure a large section of the population will believe them," says Prof Ersin Kalaycioglu of Sabanci University. |
| Not long after Suruc, the PKK, branded a terrorist organisation by Turkey and the West, ended a two-year ceasefire and a wave of militant attacks and military counter-attacks began. | Not long after Suruc, the PKK, branded a terrorist organisation by Turkey and the West, ended a two-year ceasefire and a wave of militant attacks and military counter-attacks began. |
| How is the Syrian conflict destabilising Turkey? | How is the Syrian conflict destabilising Turkey? |
| The reality is that Turkey and the PKK appear to be back where they were before the 2013 truce began, with curfews in towns and villages in the south-east and devastating battles in key cities such as Cizre. | The reality is that Turkey and the PKK appear to be back where they were before the 2013 truce began, with curfews in towns and villages in the south-east and devastating battles in key cities such as Cizre. |
| What has changed is that the terrible civil war across the border in Syria is feeding into Turkey's febrile political debate. | What has changed is that the terrible civil war across the border in Syria is feeding into Turkey's febrile political debate. |
| The Turkish government has strongly denied accusations of complicity in the rise of IS. | |
| Some Turkish opposition politicians have argued that Turkish intelligence transported weaponry across the Syrian border to help IS. | |
| PKK leaders have gone further, accusing Turkey's leaders of trying to protect IS by attacking Kurdish fighters. | |
| However, Islamic State militants have certainly taken advantage of Turkey's porous borders and the government has blamed them for the Ankara attack as well as the Suruc bombing. | |
| What has complicated matters is that a Syrian offshoot of the PKK, known as the YPG, has beaten Islamic State back from the Turkish border and carved out an area of Kurdish control. "The state is very suspicious of Kurdish activities on our border, which are against our national interest," says political commentator Fehmi Koru. | What has complicated matters is that a Syrian offshoot of the PKK, known as the YPG, has beaten Islamic State back from the Turkish border and carved out an area of Kurdish control. "The state is very suspicious of Kurdish activities on our border, which are against our national interest," says political commentator Fehmi Koru. |
| Turkey has more than two million Syrian refugees, living in cities and camps across the country. Although many are struggling to eke out a living, Turkey has largely managed to incorporate the new arrivals. | |
| Syrians in Turkey: 'We just want a normal life' | Syrians in Turkey: 'We just want a normal life' |
| Is President Erdogan to blame for polarising Turkey? | Is President Erdogan to blame for polarising Turkey? |
| HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas has been blunt in his condemnation of the president, saying he has blood on his hands for "backing terrorism", waging war on the Kurds and refusing to form a coalition. | HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas has been blunt in his condemnation of the president, saying he has blood on his hands for "backing terrorism", waging war on the Kurds and refusing to form a coalition. |
| Many Turks believe the AKP never intended to share power after the June election and, in the view of commentator Fehmi Koru, it was the president's decision to try to bolster his powers that cost the AKP its majority. Secular Turks have long opposed his brand of political Islamism. | Many Turks believe the AKP never intended to share power after the June election and, in the view of commentator Fehmi Koru, it was the president's decision to try to bolster his powers that cost the AKP its majority. Secular Turks have long opposed his brand of political Islamism. |
| Prof Kalaycioglu believes Turks are strongly opposed to the presidential system Mr Erdogan wants to introduce. "It's been very clear that there's hardly any support for his ambitions - even among the AKP itself. Many have grave doubts about it." | Prof Kalaycioglu believes Turks are strongly opposed to the presidential system Mr Erdogan wants to introduce. "It's been very clear that there's hardly any support for his ambitions - even among the AKP itself. Many have grave doubts about it." |
| But some critics also see the hand of a shadowy group, known as "deep state", behind recent events. | But some critics also see the hand of a shadowy group, known as "deep state", behind recent events. |
| Ultra-nationalists in the government and security forces have long been suspected of plotting attacks in Turkey, but Mr Erdogan was thought to have brought their influence to a halt with a series of trials while he was prime minister. | Ultra-nationalists in the government and security forces have long been suspected of plotting attacks in Turkey, but Mr Erdogan was thought to have brought their influence to a halt with a series of trials while he was prime minister. |
| However, Maya Arakon believes that "deep state" may have returned to Turkey's security echelons and that Mr Erdogan has co-opted it. The message for voters is that if they fail to back a single party in the 1 November election, then they will end up with more instability and more violence, the argument runs. | However, Maya Arakon believes that "deep state" may have returned to Turkey's security echelons and that Mr Erdogan has co-opted it. The message for voters is that if they fail to back a single party in the 1 November election, then they will end up with more instability and more violence, the argument runs. |
| Fehmi Koru is adamant that while such a dangerous force has existed within the state in the past, any suggestion that it would be behind major atrocities is inconceivable. | Fehmi Koru is adamant that while such a dangerous force has existed within the state in the past, any suggestion that it would be behind major atrocities is inconceivable. |
| Erdogan: Turkey's bruised battler | Erdogan: Turkey's bruised battler |
| How will this crisis end? | How will this crisis end? |
| Few believe that Turkey's at risk of descending into chaos. The question is how it will drag itself out of the current violent political deadlock. | Few believe that Turkey's at risk of descending into chaos. The question is how it will drag itself out of the current violent political deadlock. |
| "All will depend on the result of the election but I don't think it's that easy for Turkey to fall apart," says Maya Arakon. What she does fear is a major split between AKP voters and the rest of the country, which will largely fall behind the secular CHP, the nationalist MHP and the pro-Kurdish HDP. | "All will depend on the result of the election but I don't think it's that easy for Turkey to fall apart," says Maya Arakon. What she does fear is a major split between AKP voters and the rest of the country, which will largely fall behind the secular CHP, the nationalist MHP and the pro-Kurdish HDP. |
| Some Turks see the political stalemate and the chaos on the streets and in Kurdish areas, and see the same mix of factors that led to military coups in the past. | Some Turks see the political stalemate and the chaos on the streets and in Kurdish areas, and see the same mix of factors that led to military coups in the past. |
| But Fehmi Koru says the military has got the message from both previous coups and from the government, that it is not as successful as running the country as civilians. | But Fehmi Koru says the military has got the message from both previous coups and from the government, that it is not as successful as running the country as civilians. |
| For Turkey to extricate itself from political deadlock, says Prof Kalaycioglu, the key is for the AKP to go into coalition with another party. And that would most likely happen if the AKP's share of the vote fell from the 40.9% share (18.9 million votes) it received in June. | For Turkey to extricate itself from political deadlock, says Prof Kalaycioglu, the key is for the AKP to go into coalition with another party. And that would most likely happen if the AKP's share of the vote fell from the 40.9% share (18.9 million votes) it received in June. |