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Turkey violence: How dangerous is Turkey's instability? Turkey violence: How dangerous is Turkey's instability?
(5 months later)
Turkey's biggest cities have witnessed a spate of deadly bombings and a bloody attempted coup this year. Turkey's biggest cities have witnessed a spate of deadly bombings and a bloody attempted coup.
For so long a beacon of stability between Europe and the Middle East, Turkey has entered a period of high tension.For so long a beacon of stability between Europe and the Middle East, Turkey has entered a period of high tension.
It has long fought Kurdish militants in its restive east. Now it is trying to prevent Islamist militant violence spreading up from Syria and is cracking down on thousands of people suspected of supporting the failed coup. It has long fought Kurdish militants in its restive east. Now it is trying to prevent Islamist militant violence spreading from Syria and is cracking down on suspected supporters of the failed July 2016 coup.
How dangerous is the current crisis?How dangerous is the current crisis?
The latest bombing, on 20 August, targeted a wedding in Gaziantep, close to the south-eastern border with Syria, well away from the main population centres. Turkey's main population centres of Ankara and Istanbul have endured a wave of deadly bomb and gun attacks, as well as a failed coup that saw tanks on the streets and fighter jets targeting parliament.
But Istanbul and Ankara have seen a series of deadly attacks too, and the failed coup took place on the streets of both cities, with the loss of 240 lives on 15 and 16 July. Tanks rolled on to the streets and fighter jets targeted parliament in Ankara, as rebel troops commandeered the bridges across the Bosphorus. In a matter of months, Istanbul has seen rebel soldiers take over the bridges across the Bosphorus, a double bombing outside Besiktas football stadium, and a gun attack blamed on jihadist group Islamic State (IS) targeting New Year revellers at an exclusive nightclub on the waterfront.
The message for Turks is clear: that the risk of violence is not limited to the border and it is on several fronts. Ankara has witnessed the assassination of its Russian ambassador. Other cities such as Izmir in the west and Kayseri in central Turkey have been targeted too.
The biggest attacks, including the Gaziantep bomb, have been blamed on jihadist group Islamic State (IS): The human cost has been immense. At least 270 people died on 15 and 16 July 2016, when Turkey's government survived an internal rebellion blamed on a movement led by a US-based Islamic cleric.
But Kurdish militants have been behind a string of bombings since a ceasefire collapsed in July 2015: Thirty-nine people lost their lives on New Year's Eve in the Reina nightclub.
Until recently, the bloodshed was largely confined to the mainly Kurdish areas of the east and south-east, where the Turkish military has battled the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) for decades.Until recently, the bloodshed was largely confined to the mainly Kurdish areas of the east and south-east, where the Turkish military has battled the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) for decades.
Violence in the main cities tended to target party offices, particularly those of the left-wing and pro-Kurdish HDP (Peoples' Democratic Party). The banned Marxist DKHP-C has periodically carried out attacks on police and Western embassies. But the conflict in Syria and turbulence in domestic politics has created new tensions. And a ceasefire with Kurdish militants proved short-lived.
Turkey is no longer the safe destination that made it one of the world's biggest tourist draws. The message for Turks is clear: that the risk of violence is not limited to the border and it is on several fronts.
France has urged its citizens to exercise great vigilance in tourist areas and the UK warns that the situation "remains potentially volatile", while pointing out that things have calmed since the attempted coup. Is Turkey safe for tourists?
The US warns its citizens of "increased threats from terrorist groups throughout Turkey". Turkey is no longer the safe destination that made it one of the world's biggest tourist draws. The coup is over but since July 2016 the country has been under a state of emergency. And yet the main tourist resorts on the coast have avoided the violence seen elsewhere.
Turks themselves have become afraid of going to shopping centres and open spaces. France has urged its citizens to exercise great vigilance while travelling and in tourist areas; the UK says that while it is generally safe to travel to Turkey, additional safety precautions should be taken. The US warns its citizens of "increased threats from terrorist groups throughout Turkey".
Tourists are not a target for Kurdish militants but they are for IS, which targeted Istanbul airport last June because it has become one of Europe's busiest transport hubs, attracting almost 42 million passengers in 2015.
According to one calculation, Turkey suffered 269 attacks in 2016. Turks themselves have become afraid of going to shopping centres and open spaces, and yet they remain defiant in the face of violence.
"I think we are seeing a downward spiral towards more violence," warns Prof Menderes Cinar of Baskent University in Ankara."I think we are seeing a downward spiral towards more violence," warns Prof Menderes Cinar of Baskent University in Ankara.
Turkey's tensions: Read moreTurkey's tensions: Read more
Why is Turkey challenged on so many fronts?Why is Turkey challenged on so many fronts?
Turkey sees itself targeted by three groups of "terrorists": IS, Kurdish militants and coup-plotters.Turkey sees itself targeted by three groups of "terrorists": IS, Kurdish militants and coup-plotters.
Since the failed 15 July coup, Turkey's government has detained thousands of suspected sympathisers in the security forces and removed many more from their jobs in public life. The focus of the crackdown is a shadowy movement described as a "parallel state", that is said to owe its allegiance to cleric Fethullah Gulen, in self-imposed exile in the US. Since the failed 15 July coup, Turkey's government has detained thousands of suspected sympathisers in the security forces. Officials say 41,000 people have been arrested and 100,000 dismissed from jobs in public life.
Who are the Gulenists? The focus of the crackdown is a shadowy movement described as a "parallel state", said to owe its allegiance to cleric Fethullah Gulen, who is in self-imposed exile in the US.
Turkey - after the coup But as the purge continues, so too do Turkey's internal security threats.
But as the coup inquiry continues, so too do Turkey's internal security threats.
A long-running internal conflict with Kurdish militants had been quiet for a couple of years, until an IS suicide bomber targeted a rally of young Kurdish activists near the Syrian border at Suruc in July 2015.A long-running internal conflict with Kurdish militants had been quiet for a couple of years, until an IS suicide bomber targeted a rally of young Kurdish activists near the Syrian border at Suruc in July 2015.
Profile: Kurdistan Workers' Party - Turkey's decades of armed struggle Violence in the main cities tended to target party offices, particularly those of the left-wing and pro-Kurdish HDP (Peoples' Democratic Party). The banned Marxist DKHP-C has periodically carried out attacks on police and Western embassies.
Contagion from the Syrian conflict had been feared for some time. Kurds had long battled the spread of IS militants in Syria without any help from Turkey. The Suruc bombing sparked new attacks on both sides, triggering the Turkey-PKK ceasefire's collapse. But then the ceasefire collapsed. In one year, more than 600 members of the Turkish security forces were killed in attacks blamed on the militant PKK.
For IS, there was a clear benefit in seeing Turkey drawn into renewed domestic conflict. Turkey's security forces have become bogged down in a military campaign against the PKK in the east and south-east. Curfews were imposed on towns and cities for months this year as the Turkish military hunted down Kurdish militants. A splinter group, the TAK (Kurdistan Freedom Hawks), carried out a string of bloody attacks that killed civilians as well as police and soldiers in Ankara. On 13 March 2016, 37 people died when the TAK targeted a busy transport hub in Ankara and 44 were killed in December when two bombs exploded near police outside Besiktas's Vodafone Arena in Istanbul.
Although reluctant to help the Kurds fight IS and carve out territory in Syria, Turkey nevertheless agreed in 2014 to take part in the US-led operation against so-called Islamic State. IS considered Turkey part of a Nato alliance carrying out air strikes on its Syrian and Iraqi bases. For many Turks, the PKK is no different from its offshoot.
And Turkey has worked hard to seal off the supply of militants crossing a previously porous Turkey-Syria border to join IS. But some of the deadliest and highest-profile attacks have been blamed on IS:
Although PKK leader Cemil Bayik has accused President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of "protecting IS", to stop Kurds advancing against the jihadist group, Turkey is supporting the campaign by Syrian Arab rebels to oust IS from the city of Jarablus. Why is IS targeting Turkey?
The Gaziantep bombing has been seen as an IS reprisal for losing ground in the border areas, and Turkey's foreign minister has spoken of fighting "Daesh (IS) to the end". Much of the IS violence inside Turkey in recent months, such as the Gaziantep attack, can be put down to reprisal attacks for the Ankara government's policy on Syria.
Are the main cities safe? Although Turkey has long backed Syrian rebels, it has become a major player in the conflict in recent months. In August 2016, Turkey launched a campaign against IS in northern Syria and there has been fierce fighting as it tries to seize control of the group's stronghold of al-Bab.
The coup is over and life in Istanbul and Ankara has returned to normal. However, the threat from IS and Kurdish militants remains, security is very high and the US has gone as far as urging its citizens to reconsider travelling to Turkey at the moment. Together with Russia it organised a halt to fighting in Aleppo, and then a nationwide ceasefire in late December.
Ataturk airport was an attractive target for IS, as it has become one of Europe's busiest transport hubs, attracting almost 42 million passengers in 2015. It was a deadly reminder of the Brussels airport bombing in March and, after 12 German tourists were killed in Istanbul's Sultanahmet tourist area in January, a clear warning that tourists were seen as potential targets. But Turkey had initially been a reluctant participant in the Syrian conflict. PKK leader Cemil Bayik even accused President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of "protecting IS", to stop Kurds advancing against the jihadist group and carving out their own territory in Syria.
However, Turkey continues to be a leading draw for tourists and the main coastal resorts have avoided the violence seen elsewhere. Turkey did nevertheless agree in 2014 to take part in the US-led operation against IS and was seen as part of the Nato alliance targeting its bases in Iraq and Syria.
Tourists are not a target for Kurdish militants. And until now the PKK has carried out much of the violence against government and military targets in the south-east. But its offshoot, the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK), is more hardline and its attacks have become more deadly and more focused on Ankara and Istanbul. It then sealed off the jihadists' supply of militants crossing over the previously porous border with Syria.
Turkey's government does not differentiate between the PKK and its hardline offshoot, arguing that there is a crossover of personnel. The March bombing in the centre of Ankara lends that theory credence, as the government says the bomber joined the PKK and was trained over the border in Syria. Why has violence erupted with Kurdish militants?
Is the Syrian conflict to blame for the unrest? When IS bombed a rally of Kurdish peace activists in Suruc in 2015, there was a clear benefit in seeing Turkey drawn into renewed domestic conflict with Kurdish militants.
Much of the IS violence inside Turkey in recent months can be listed as reprisal attacks for the Ankara government's policy on Syria. Turkey's security forces have since become bogged down in a military campaign against the PKK in the east and south-east. Curfews were imposed on towns and cities for months in 2016 as the Turkish military hunted down Kurdish militants.
But the Kurdish question is more complex and most of the Kurdish attacks within Turkey are down to long-running internal issues that have flared up since the end of the ceasefire. Kurdish communities live on both sides of the Turkish border with Syria and have long battled the spread of IS.
Turkey is worried by the rise of Kurdish groups in northern Syria, particularly the Syrian Kurdish Popular Protection Units (YPG) militia and its political arm, the Democratic Union Party (PYD). But Turkey has no interest in seeing Kurdish territorial gains across its border and part of the incentive to seize al-Bab from IS was to prevent Syrian Kurds from increasing their hold in the area. Turkey has vowed to prevent the creation of a contiguous Kurdish autonomous region along its border with Syria.
Turkey is particularly worried by the rise of the Syrian Kurdish Popular Protection Units (YPG) militia and its political arm, the Democratic Union Party (PYD).
"Turkey is feeling a very serious existential threat from the PYD and PKK," says Burhanettin Duran, executive director of Turkey's pro-government Seta research institute. "It's a very solid fact that the PYD and the PKK are the same.""Turkey is feeling a very serious existential threat from the PYD and PKK," says Burhanettin Duran, executive director of Turkey's pro-government Seta research institute. "It's a very solid fact that the PYD and the PKK are the same."
When Russia intervened in the Syrian conflict in September 2015, the Syrian Kurds found common cause with the advancing Syrian army and its Russian allies and made territorial gains north of Aleppo, fighting the Arab rebels. Now Syria's Kurds have declared their own federal system. Syrian Kurds set sights on al-Bab
Part of the problem for Turkey, a Nato member, is that while the US sees the PKK as a terrorist group, it backs the Kurdish YPG over the border in Syria. Profile: Kurdistan Workers' Party - Turkey's decades of armed struggle
Tears and destruction amid Turkey's PKK crackdown
Syrians in Turkey: 'We just want a normal life'