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Turkey violence: How dangerous is instability? Turkey violence: How dangerous is instability?
(5 months later)
Turkey has suffered its worst ever terrorist atrocity, in the heart of capital Ankara, and the country is weeks away from a re-run of an inconclusive general election. A deadly bombing in the heart of its capital, Ankara, has hit Turkey at a moment of high tension.
For so long a beacon of stability between Europe and the Middle East, Turkey is fighting Kurdish militants in its restive east and struggling to prevent violence spreading from across its border with Syria, where Islamic State (IS) militants have seized swathes of territory. For so long a beacon of stability between Europe and the Middle East, Turkey is fighting Kurdish militants in its restive east and struggling to prevent violence spreading from across its border with Syria.
So how tense is Turkey and what are the risks of the crisis deteriorating? As well as the threat from Islamic State (IS) militants, Turkey is now facing a challenge from Syrian Kurds increasing their power along the border.
So what are the risks of the crisis escalating?
How dangerous is the current situation in Turkey?How dangerous is the current situation in Turkey?
The most serious violence in Turkey has taken place away from the big cities until now, in the mainly Kurdish areas of the east and south-east, where the Turkish military has battled the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) for decades. The latest bombing, which has claimed at least 28 lives in the heart of Ankara, comes only a few months after Turkey's worst ever terrorist atrocity. More than 100 people were killed outside Ankara railway station in October 2015, a stone's throw from the headquarters of the national intelligence organisation.
Political violence in the main cities was largely confined to party offices, particularly those of the left-wing and pro-Kurdish HDP (Peoples' Democratic Party). Wednesday's attack targeted soldiers as well as staff streaming out of government offices after work. Until now, the bloodshed was largely confined to the mainly Kurdish areas of the east and south-east, where the Turkish military has battled the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) for decades.
But the twin bombing outside Ankara railway station was within a short distance of key government ministries, as well as Turkey's MIT intelligence HQ. Violence in the main cities was largely confined to party offices, particularly those of the left-wing and pro-Kurdish HDP (Peoples' Democratic Party).
For millions of tourists every year, Turkey remains an attractive, safe destination, but France and the UK have updated their travel advice after the Ankara attacks, urging caution. For millions of tourists every year, Turkey remains an attractive, safe destination, but the UK has now urged people to stay away from central Ankara and France has urged its citizens to exercise great vigilance in tourist areas.
UK visitors are urged to steer clear of central Ankara as well as areas bordering Syria and Iraq, while France says all French nationals should exercise caution, even in tourist areas. Political gatherings and demonstrations are highlighted as a possible risk. But Turks themselves have become afraid of going to shopping centres and open spaces like Taksim Square, according to Maya Arakon, associate professor of international relations at Suleyman Sah University in Istanbul.
Now Turks themselves are afraid of going to shopping centres and open spaces like Taksim Square, according to Maya Arakon, associate professor of International Relations at Suleyman Sah University in Istanbul.
"Turkey is a dangerous place and going through a dangerous transition period, but it won't fall apart," she says."Turkey is a dangerous place and going through a dangerous transition period, but it won't fall apart," she says.
Ankara bombings: Read more Turkey's tensions: Read more
Who is behind Ankara attack? - Could Islamic State have staged such an atrocity? Border tensions: Why is Azaz in Syria so important for Turkey and the Kurds?
"This is the worst scene I've ever seen" - Shock and anger in Ankara as mourning begins
Who are the Kurds? - The long history of the Middle East's fourth-largest ethnic groupWho are the Kurds? - The long history of the Middle East's fourth-largest ethnic group
Turkey v Islamic State v the Kurds - What's going on?Turkey v Islamic State v the Kurds - What's going on?
What is 'Islamic State'? - A profile of the militant groupWhat is 'Islamic State'? - A profile of the militant group
How much of a threat is there to Turkey's political stability? Why has security worsened in Turkey?
Turkey's political fate is at a crossroads and elections are taking place on 1 November. Turkey has long been caught up in the Syrian conflict, and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan was among the first to champion rebel opposition groups and call openly for President Bashar al-Assad's removal.
The AK party, rooted in political Islam, has ruled Turkey since 2002 but former prime minister and now President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is intent on bolstering his powers, an ambition that has polarised voters. A series of earlier attacks was blamed on so-called Islamic State (IS) but the latest bloodshed has been linked by the government in Ankara to Syria's Kurds, who deny any involvement.
Mr Erdogan's party failed to secure the necessary majority in June elections and violence that broke out two days before the poll in the south-east has intensified and spread. Turkey, already fighting a long-running internal conflict with the Kurdish militant PKK for decades, now sees another threat in the Syrian Kurdish Popular Protection Units (YPG) militia as well as its political arm, the Democratic Union Party (PYD).
The target on 5 June was the pro-Kurdish HDP, which two days later secured more than 13% of the vote, denying the AKP any chance of a majority. "Turkey is feeling a very serious existential threat from the PYD and PKK," says Burhanettin Duran, executive director of Turkey's pro-government Seta research institute.
It was the murder the following month of dozens of young activists in Suruc, close to the Syrian border, that suggested that political violence was threatening Turkish society. Those targeted were a mix of Kurdish and left-wing activists planning to travel into northern Syria to help rebuild Kobane, a town devastated by Islamic State militants. Recent attacks in Turkey
Although the Suruc bomber has been linked to IS, the motivation is unclear. "There's no confidence in Turkey's authorities. Even if the government reveals something I'm not sure a large section of the population will believe them," says Prof Ersin Kalaycioglu of Sabanci University. For two years, a ceasefire kept a lid on skirmishes between Turkey and the PKK, seen as a terrorist group domestically and by much of the West.
Not long after Suruc, the PKK, branded a terrorist organisation by Turkey and the West, ended a two-year ceasefire and a wave of militant attacks and military counter-attacks began. But the Suruc bombing and its repercussions brought that to an end. Those targeted, apparently by an IS bomber, were a mix of Kurdish and left-wing activists planning to travel into northern Syria to help rebuild Kobane, a town devastated by Islamic State militants.
How is the Syrian conflict destabilising Turkey? A wave of militant attacks and military counter-attacks began, as the PKK accused Turkey of wanting IS fighters to succeed in an attempt to put a stop to Kurdish territorial gains in Syria and Iraq.
The reality is that Turkey and the PKK appear to be back where they were before the 2013 truce began, with curfews in towns and villages in the south-east and devastating battles in key cities such as Cizre. "[President] Erdogan is behind IS massacres. His aim is to stop the Kurdish advance against them," PKK leader Cemil Bayik told the BBC last year.
What has changed is that the terrible civil war across the border in Syria is feeding into Turkey's febrile political debate. Why is the Syrian conflict to blame?
The Turkish government has strongly denied accusations of complicity in the rise of IS. Turkey and the PKK appear to be back where they were before the 2013 truce began, with security operations and extended curfews in towns and villages in the south-east.
Some Turkish opposition politicians have argued that Turkish intelligence transported weaponry across the Syrian border to help IS. But what has exacerbated this unrest is the rise of the Syrian Kurds. "It's a very solid fact that the PYD and the PKK are the same," says Mr Duran.
PKK leaders have gone further, accusing Turkey's leaders of trying to protect IS by attacking Kurdish fighters. The YPG militia last year beat IS back from the Turkish border and carved out an area of Kurdish control.
However, Islamic State militants have certainly taken advantage of Turkey's porous borders and the government has blamed them for the Ankara attack as well as the Suruc bombing. Now, those fighters have made big strides north of Aleppo and have found common cause with the advancing Syrian army and its Russian allies. Russia's intervention, which began last September, has not only changed the direction of the conflict, it has led to a diplomatic crisis between Ankara and Moscow.
What has complicated matters is that a Syrian offshoot of the PKK, known as the YPG, has beaten Islamic State back from the Turkish border and carved out an area of Kurdish control. "The state is very suspicious of Kurdish activities on our border, which are against our national interest," says political commentator Fehmi Koru. While the Syrian army has broken rebel supply lines from the Turkish border to Aleppo, the YPG has advanced on rebel-held Azaz and seized another rebel town, Tal Rifaat.
Turkey has more than two million Syrian refugees, living in cities and camps across the country. Although many are struggling to eke out a living, Turkey has largely managed to incorporate the new arrivals. Kurdish groups now control most of the Syrian border with Turkey, with only a 100km (62-mile) stretch remaining from Azaz to the IS-held town of Jarablus, says the BBC's Selin Girit.
"The state is very suspicious of Kurdish activities on our border, which are against our national interest," says political commentator Fehmi Koru.
Tears and destruction amid Turkey's PKK crackdown
Syrians in Turkey: 'We just want a normal life'Syrians in Turkey: 'We just want a normal life'
Is President Erdogan to blame for polarising Turkey? What is Turkey's next step?
HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas has been blunt in his condemnation of the president, saying he has blood on his hands for "backing terrorism", waging war on the Kurds and refusing to form a coalition. As well as tightening up domestic security to try to prevent further bombings, Turkey's main goal across its border will be to stop Kurdish groups bringing together two areas under their control in the north and north-east of Syria.
Many Turks believe the AKP never intended to share power after the June election and, in the view of commentator Fehmi Koru, it was the president's decision to try to bolster his powers that cost the AKP its majority. Secular Turks have long opposed his brand of political Islamism. It has already allowed hundreds of Free Syrian Army rebels to cross its territory to bolster opposition numbers in northern Aleppo province.
Prof Kalaycioglu believes Turks are strongly opposed to the presidential system Mr Erdogan wants to introduce. "It's been very clear that there's hardly any support for his ambitions - even among the AKP itself. Many have grave doubts about it." However, there seems little chance yet of a Turkish ground operation in northern Syria.
But some critics also see the hand of a shadowy group, known as "deep state", behind recent events. Part of the problem for Turkey, a Nato member, is that the Kurdish militia group making advances in Syria's far north is backed by the US.
Ultra-nationalists in the government and security forces have long been suspected of plotting attacks in Turkey, but Mr Erdogan was thought to have brought their influence to a halt with a series of trials while he was prime minister. Charles Lister of the Washington-based Middle East Institute finds it "quite extraordinary" that the Obama administration is favouring a Kurdish group linked to the PKK instead of its Nato ally.
However, Maya Arakon believes that "deep state" may have returned to Turkey's security echelons and that Mr Erdogan has co-opted it. The message for voters is that if they fail to back a single party in the 1 November election, then they will end up with more instability and more violence, the argument runs. Burhanettin Duran believes Nato and the US should intervene on Turkey's behalf to create a "safe zone" along the so-called Jarablus corridor, the area near the Turkey border not under Kurdish control.
Fehmi Koru is adamant that while such a dangerous force has existed within the state in the past, any suggestion that it would be behind major atrocities is inconceivable. However, he acknowledges that is unlikely to happen.
Erdogan: Turkey's bruised battler What many fear is that Turkey, already host to some 2.5 million refugees from the Syrian conflict, will see a further influx as the humanitarian crisis continues.
How will this crisis end?
Few believe that Turkey's at risk of descending into chaos. The question is how it will drag itself out of the current violent political deadlock.
"All will depend on the result of the election but I don't think it's that easy for Turkey to fall apart," says Maya Arakon. What she does fear is a major split between AKP voters and the rest of the country, which will largely fall behind the secular CHP, the nationalist MHP and the pro-Kurdish HDP.
Some Turks see the political stalemate and the chaos on the streets and in Kurdish areas, and see the same mix of factors that led to military coups in the past.
But Fehmi Koru says the military has got the message from both previous coups and from the government, that it is not as successful as running the country as civilians.
For Turkey to extricate itself from political deadlock, says Prof Kalaycioglu, the key is for the AKP to go into coalition with another party. And that would most likely happen if the AKP's share of the vote fell from the 40.9% share (18.9 million votes) it received in June.