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Turkey violence: How dangerous is instability? Turkey violence: How dangerous is instability?
(about 3 hours later)
A deadly bombing in the heart of its capital, Ankara, has hit Turkey at a moment of high tension. Turkey's biggest cities, Ankara and Istanbul, have been hit by a spate of deadly bombings. The latest, targeting crowded bus stops in the heart of the capital, has hit Turkey at a moment of high tension.
For so long a beacon of stability between Europe and the Middle East, Turkey is fighting Kurdish militants in its restive east and struggling to prevent violence spreading from across its border with Syria.For so long a beacon of stability between Europe and the Middle East, Turkey is fighting Kurdish militants in its restive east and struggling to prevent violence spreading from across its border with Syria.
As well as the threat from Islamic State (IS) militants, Turkey is now facing a challenge from Syrian Kurds increasing their power along the border. As well as the threat from so-called Islamic State (IS), Turkey fears a challenge from Syrian Kurds increasing their power along the border.
So what are the risks of the crisis escalating? So how serious is the risk for Turkey?
How dangerous is the current situation in Turkey? How dangerous is the current crisis?
The latest bombing, which has claimed at least 28 lives in the heart of Ankara, comes only a few months after Turkey's worst ever terrorist atrocity. More than 100 people were killed outside Ankara railway station in October 2015, a stone's throw from the headquarters of the national intelligence organisation. Three atrocities, apparently by separate groups, in the centre of Ankara in five months have sent Turks a clear message that nowhere is immune from the violence.
Wednesday's attack targeted soldiers as well as staff streaming out of government offices after work. Until now, the bloodshed was largely confined to the mainly Kurdish areas of the east and south-east, where the Turkish military has battled the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) for decades. Until now, the bloodshed was largely confined to the mainly Kurdish areas of the east and south-east, where the Turkish military has battled the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) for decades.
Violence in the main cities was largely confined to party offices, particularly those of the left-wing and pro-Kurdish HDP (Peoples' Democratic Party).Violence in the main cities was largely confined to party offices, particularly those of the left-wing and pro-Kurdish HDP (Peoples' Democratic Party).
For millions of tourists every year, Turkey remains an attractive, safe destination, but the UK has now urged people to stay away from central Ankara and France has urged its citizens to exercise great vigilance in tourist areas. But now it is Turkish civilians in the heart of Ankara and tourists in Istanbul who are becoming caught up in the bloodshed. At least 10 people, mainly German visitors, were killed on 12 January, by an IS bomber who blew himself up in the centre of Istanbul's Sultanahmet tourist area.
But Turks themselves have become afraid of going to shopping centres and open spaces like Taksim Square, according to Maya Arakon, associate professor of international relations at Suleyman Sah University in Istanbul. For millions of tourists every year, Turkey remains an attractive, safe destination, but France has urged its citizens to exercise great vigilance in tourist areas and the UK has warned that "further attacks could be indiscriminate and could affect places visited by foreigners".
"Turkey is a dangerous place and going through a dangerous transition period, but it won't fall apart," she says. Turks themselves have become afraid of going to shopping centres and open spaces.
"I think we are seeing a downward spiral towards more violence," warns Prof Menderes Cinar of Baskent University in Ankara.
Turkey's tensions: Read moreTurkey's tensions: Read more
Border tensions: Why is Azaz in Syria so important for Turkey and the Kurds?
Who are the Kurds? - The long history of the Middle East's fourth-largest ethnic groupWho are the Kurds? - The long history of the Middle East's fourth-largest ethnic group
Turkey v Islamic State v the Kurds - What's going on?Turkey v Islamic State v the Kurds - What's going on?
What is 'Islamic State'? - A profile of the militant groupWhat is 'Islamic State'? - A profile of the militant group
Border tensions: Why is Azaz in Syria so important for Turkey and the Kurds?
Why has security worsened in Turkey?Why has security worsened in Turkey?
Turkey has long been caught up in the Syrian conflict, and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan was among the first to champion rebel opposition groups and call openly for President Bashar al-Assad's removal. Turkey has become embroiled in a conflict on two fronts, inside Turkey and across its Syrian border.
A series of earlier attacks was blamed on so-called Islamic State (IS) but the latest bloodshed has been linked by the government in Ankara to Syria's Kurds, who deny any involvement. The government in Ankara has for decades fought an internal war with the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party). For two years a ceasefire kept a lid on skirmishes between Turkey and the Kurdish militants, seen as a terrorist group domestically and by much of the West.
Turkey, already fighting a long-running internal conflict with the Kurdish militant PKK for decades, now sees another threat in the Syrian Kurdish Popular Protection Units (YPG) militia as well as its political arm, the Democratic Union Party (PYD). But that ceasefire came to an end in July 2015, after a bombing that killed 32 young Kurdish and left-wing activists in the south-eastern city of Suruc.
"Turkey is feeling a very serious existential threat from the PYD and PKK," says Burhanettin Duran, executive director of Turkey's pro-government Seta research institute. Profile: Kurdistan Workers' Party - Turkey's decades of armed struggle
Recent attacks in Turkey Those targeted, apparently by an IS bomber, were planning to travel into northern Syria to help rebuild Kobane, a town devastated by IS militants. It was a clear sign that the Syrian conflict had reached Turkey.
For two years, a ceasefire kept a lid on skirmishes between Turkey and the PKK, seen as a terrorist group domestically and by much of the West.
But the Suruc bombing and its repercussions brought that to an end. Those targeted, apparently by an IS bomber, were a mix of Kurdish and left-wing activists planning to travel into northern Syria to help rebuild Kobane, a town devastated by Islamic State militants.
A wave of militant attacks and military counter-attacks began, as the PKK accused Turkey of wanting IS fighters to succeed in an attempt to put a stop to Kurdish territorial gains in Syria and Iraq.A wave of militant attacks and military counter-attacks began, as the PKK accused Turkey of wanting IS fighters to succeed in an attempt to put a stop to Kurdish territorial gains in Syria and Iraq.
"[President] Erdogan is behind IS massacres. His aim is to stop the Kurdish advance against them," PKK leader Cemil Bayik told the BBC last year."[President] Erdogan is behind IS massacres. His aim is to stop the Kurdish advance against them," PKK leader Cemil Bayik told the BBC last year.
Turkey has imposed curfews on towns and cities in the south-east, in its hunt for Kurdish militants. But it also fears the rise over the border of the Syrian Kurdish Popular Protection Units (YPG) militia as well as its political arm, the Democratic Union Party (PYD).
"Turkey is feeling a very serious existential threat from the PYD and PKK," says Burhanettin Duran, executive director of Turkey's pro-government Seta research institute.
Why is the Syrian conflict to blame?Why is the Syrian conflict to blame?
Turkey and the PKK appear to be back where they were before the 2013 truce began, with security operations and extended curfews in towns and villages in the south-east.Turkey and the PKK appear to be back where they were before the 2013 truce began, with security operations and extended curfews in towns and villages in the south-east.
But what has exacerbated this unrest is the rise of the Syrian Kurds. "It's a very solid fact that the PYD and the PKK are the same," says Mr Duran. But what has exacerbated this unrest is the rise of the Syrian Kurds. "It's a very solid fact that the PYD and the PKK are the same," according to Mr Duran.
The YPG militia last year beat IS back from the Turkish border and carved out an area of Kurdish control. Turkey has long been caught up in the Syrian conflict, and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan was among the first to champion rebel opposition groups and call openly for President Bashar al-Assad's removal.
Now, those fighters have made big strides north of Aleppo and have found common cause with the advancing Syrian army and its Russian allies. Russia's intervention, which began last September, has not only changed the direction of the conflict, it has led to a diplomatic crisis between Ankara and Moscow. But Turkey has become increasingly concerned by the rise of the YPG militia, whose power base has grown in northern Syria since it beat IS back from the Turkish border in 2015 and carved out an area of Kurdish control.
While the Syrian army has broken rebel supply lines from the Turkish border to Aleppo, the YPG has advanced on rebel-held Azaz and seized another rebel town, Tal Rifaat. Part of the problem for Turkey, a Nato member, is that the militia group it views as a terrorist organisation is backed by the US.
Kurdish groups now control most of the Syrian border with Turkey, with only a 100km (62-mile) stretch remaining from Azaz to the IS-held town of Jarablus, says the BBC's Selin Girit. Charles Lister of the Washington-based Middle East Institute finds it "quite extraordinary" that the Obama administration is favouring a Kurdish group linked to the PKK instead of its Nato ally.
And when Russia intervened in the Syrian conflict in September, the Syrian Kurds found common cause with the advancing Syrian army and its Russian allies and made territorial gains north of Aleppo.
Kurdish groups now control most of the Syrian border with Turkey, with only a 100km (60-mile) stretch remaining from Azaz to the IS-held town of Jarablus, says the BBC's Selin Girit.
"The state is very suspicious of Kurdish activities on our border, which are against our national interest," says political commentator Fehmi Koru."The state is very suspicious of Kurdish activities on our border, which are against our national interest," says political commentator Fehmi Koru.
Tears and destruction amid Turkey's PKK crackdownTears and destruction amid Turkey's PKK crackdown
Syrians in Turkey: 'We just want a normal life'Syrians in Turkey: 'We just want a normal life'
What is Turkey's next step? Can Turkey bring the violence to an end?
As well as tightening up domestic security to try to prevent further bombings, Turkey's main goal across its border will be to stop Kurdish groups bringing together two areas under their control in the north and north-east of Syria. There seems little chance of reviving the peace process with the PKK that was launched by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan while he was prime minister.
It has already allowed hundreds of Free Syrian Army rebels to cross its territory to bolster opposition numbers in northern Aleppo province. Turkey's immediate response to the string of bombings has been to target PKK militants and their bases both inside Turkey and across the border in northern Iraq.
However, there seems little chance yet of a Turkish ground operation in northern Syria. "The government has a huge popular mandate and can justify very successfully the end of the peace process," says Prof Cinar.
Part of the problem for Turkey, a Nato member, is that the Kurdish militia group making advances in Syria's far north is backed by the US. The answer to the crisis may lie in Syria, where a ceasefire has brought relative calm in areas controlled by the YPG.
Charles Lister of the Washington-based Middle East Institute finds it "quite extraordinary" that the Obama administration is favouring a Kurdish group linked to the PKK instead of its Nato ally. Turkey's main goal there will be to stop Kurdish groups bringing together two areas under their control in the north and north-east of Syria.
Burhanettin Duran believes Nato and the US should intervene on Turkey's behalf to create a "safe zone" along the so-called Jarablus corridor, the area near the Turkey border not under Kurdish control. So far the security forces have been unsuccessful at preventing the bombers from breaching security and Turks fear attacks from the PKK and its affiliates as much as they do from so-called Islamic State.
However, he acknowledges that is unlikely to happen.
What many fear is that Turkey, already host to some 2.5 million refugees from the Syrian conflict, will see a further influx as the humanitarian crisis continues.