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| Election live: Trump and Clinton lead on day of Iowa caucuses | Election live: Trump and Clinton lead on day of Iowa caucuses |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 1.31pm GMT | |
| 13:31 | |
| One last one last poll, this one from Quinnipiac University, with an emphasis on the giant question that looms over even the very large head and hair of Donald Trump: who will actually come out to caucus? | |
| For first time likely caucus goers, Trump has a steady lead over Texas senator Ted Cruz, 31% to 24%. Florida senator Marco Rubio has gained, with 17%, and Ben Carson is hovering only a little above rest of the pack at 8%. No one else has more than 4%. | |
| But for Republicans who’ve done a caucus before, the race is far closer. Among these caucusers, Cruz leads Trump, 26% to 25%. Rubio’s got 20% with Iowans who’ve caucused before. | |
| Twenty-eight percent of the people who named a candidate said they might still change their mind, and 3% said they were undecided.The Democratic race has a similar dynamic. Bernie Sanders leads Clinton 62% to 35% with Iowans who would be first-time caucusers. Clinton has the edge 52-41% on Sanders with Iowans who’ve shown up to caucuses before. There’s less room to maneuver, though: only 2% say they’re undecided, and only 14% of those who named a candidate say they might change their mind. Martin O’Malley’s supporters amount to 3% of the people surveyed, in line with other polls. | |
| All of this means high turnout should be good for Trump and Sanders, low turnout good for Cruz and Clinton – and that we shouldn’t be surprised to see campaigns doing everything they can to get people voting or staying home, as it suits their candidates’ interests. | |
| Updated | |
| at 1.31pm GMT | |
| 1.07pm GMT | 1.07pm GMT |
| 13:07 | 13:07 |
| Hello and welcome to our coverage of the Iowa caucuses – the long awaited first decision day of the 2016 primary elections. | Hello and welcome to our coverage of the Iowa caucuses – the long awaited first decision day of the 2016 primary elections. |
| Astounding his party, pundits, pollsters and plenty of Americans, billionaire Donald Trump has sailed into caucus day with a lead for the Republican nomination in one of Iowa’s most trusted polls. Trump lead Texas senator Ted Cruz by five points in the Des Moines register poll, with Florida senator Marco Rubio a little further back. Trump and Cruz have exasperated Republican leaders and moderates, but like populists and a few presidents past they look poised to thrive in the Hawkeye state. | Astounding his party, pundits, pollsters and plenty of Americans, billionaire Donald Trump has sailed into caucus day with a lead for the Republican nomination in one of Iowa’s most trusted polls. Trump lead Texas senator Ted Cruz by five points in the Des Moines register poll, with Florida senator Marco Rubio a little further back. Trump and Cruz have exasperated Republican leaders and moderates, but like populists and a few presidents past they look poised to thrive in the Hawkeye state. |
| Democratic leader Hillary Clinton faces the possibility of déja vù: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders trailed her by only three points in the final Iowa poll, within the margin of error and with the enthusiasm of thousands at his back. Sanders is hoping for an upset to jump start his political revolution, and Clinton is hoping to secure her place as the party’s pragmatist-in-chief. | Democratic leader Hillary Clinton faces the possibility of déja vù: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders trailed her by only three points in the final Iowa poll, within the margin of error and with the enthusiasm of thousands at his back. Sanders is hoping for an upset to jump start his political revolution, and Clinton is hoping to secure her place as the party’s pragmatist-in-chief. |
| But if the 2016 election has proven anything before its first decision, it’s that Americans have a huge appetite for chaos in their democracy. Republicans Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are all still hoping – maybe a little desperately – for surprise strength in Iowa, as are former Iowa winners Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. | But if the 2016 election has proven anything before its first decision, it’s that Americans have a huge appetite for chaos in their democracy. Republicans Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are all still hoping – maybe a little desperately – for surprise strength in Iowa, as are former Iowa winners Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. |
| Former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, or at least his support, remains a key factor that could turn the close Democratic race. | Former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, or at least his support, remains a key factor that could turn the close Democratic race. |
| Caucuses begin in Iowa at 7pm local time (8pm Eastern, 1am GMT) and we can expect results around 11pm local (midnight ET, 5am GMT). | Caucuses begin in Iowa at 7pm local time (8pm Eastern, 1am GMT) and we can expect results around 11pm local (midnight ET, 5am GMT). |
| In Iowa for the Guardian US are head of news David Taylor, DC bureau chief Dan Roberts, west coast bureau chief Paul Lewis, political reporters Ben Jacobs and Sabrina Siddiqui and editor-at-large Gary Younge. National reporter Lauren Gambino and columnist Richard Wolffe are in New Hampshire, the next primary state – and a battleground where Sanders leads Clinton by 20 points and Rubio is gaining strength against Trump. | |
| So we’ll bring you all the news and throw in some glories of American democracy too. There’s a patriotic tractor with a hologram eagle. Pheasant hunting with Trump sons. Bernie Sanders ice cream. Republican sea ice sophistry. Derelict campaign bus protest art projects. Five thousand people singing folk songs. Three generations of Clinton. | |
| Election 2016 starts today. | Election 2016 starts today. |
| Updated | |
| at 1.37pm GMT |