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| Election live: Trump and Clinton lead on day of Iowa caucuses | Election live: Trump and Clinton lead on day of Iowa caucuses |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 2.50pm GMT | |
| 14:50 | |
| Sabrina Siddiqui | |
| On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, eight years after the crushing disappointment of her defeat by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton made her final pitch to a gymnasium packed with roughly 2,600 people. | |
| “I’m a better candidate,” she said. “And, thanks to you, I’ll be a better president.” | |
| The crowd was not just one of the largest of her campaign. It also rivaled in its enthusiasm scenes that have become synonymous with rallies held by her opponent, Bernie Sanders. | |
| Accompanied by her husband Bill and daughter Chelsea, the former secretary of state fashioned herself as a pragmatic progressive with a history of accomplishment to match her soaring rhetoric. | |
| The same night in Des Moines, around 1,700 people attended Sanders’ Sunday night rally. A crowd as large as 5,000 saw him joined by indie band Vampire Weekend at the University of Iowa on Saturday. | |
| “She’s a world-class change-maker,” her husband said, adding that a president must be find common ground with rivals, and without sacrificing principles. “Of all of the people I have ever worked with in my public life, Hillary is the best at that.” | |
| Much of Clinton’s closing argument in Iowa and New Hampshire has centered around the idea that the policies put forward by Sanders, a self-identified democratic socialist, might sound appealing but are ultimately impractical. | |
| “Senator Sanders wants to start over – to plunge us into a contentious national debate,” Clinton said. “Stick with the Affordable Care Act, stick with making it better,.” | |
| Clinton also took a veiled shot at Sanders by vowing not to raise taxes on the middle class, following an acknowledgement by the senator’s campaign that his healthcare plan would require a tax hike on most Americans – in return, they say, for larger savings on insurance costs. | |
| “I will not raise middle class taxes – absolutely off the table. I will follow the money to the top,” Clinton said. | |
| Related: Hillary Clinton's final pitch to Iowans: thanks to you, I'm a better candidate | |
| 2.40pm GMT | |
| 14:40 | |
| DC bureau chief Dan Roberts, reporting from Iowa with colleagues, the campaigns and maybe every political journalist in the continental US. | |
| Iowa, where 200,000 people get to sink or launch the career of the most powerful elected official on earth. pic.twitter.com/0JZb9kESCj | |
| When you can't move in your local coffee shop for breakfast TV political shows. Welcome to Des Moines on caucus day. pic.twitter.com/LJu2oUBKCx | |
| “When you can’t move in your local coffee shop because they are filming breakfast TV political shows. Des Moines on caucus day.” | |
| Updated | |
| at 2.42pm GMT | |
| 2.28pm GMT | |
| 14:28 | |
| Four years ago a one-term senator so drew the crowds of Iowa that he had to deliver two speeches at one restaurant, one using a bullhorn. | |
| But although Rick Santorum won Iowa on the strength of his evangelical credentials, he failed to make a mark on the rest of the 2012 primary, which Mitt Romney survived to win the nomination. Which raises a question: is Iowa any good at predicting a winner? | |
| As usual, it depends. In modern elections, the conventional wisdom is that candidate’s need a top-three finish to have a chance – though in 2008, for instance, John McCain placed fourth. Iowa Democrats have had more success picking the eventual nominee than their Republican counterparts. But it is just the first state of many that will eventually decide who runs in the general election. | |
| And if you’d like to know more about the sad travails of Rick Santorum, my colleague Ben Jacobs was with the former senator at a Pizza Ranch yesterday – that same site of Santorum’s glory four years ago. Santorum was declared an “honorary employee”. | |
| Related: Rick Santorum: an Iowa requiem for the candidate holding a tiny slice of support | |
| Updated | |
| at 2.59pm GMT | |
| 2.02pm GMT | 2.02pm GMT |
| 14:02 | 14:02 |
| What are caucuses? | What are caucuses? |
| Better to ask and learn than live in ignorance. The Iowa caucuses are the first decision of the presidential election, and a means for the rural state to influence a national election that is often dominated by the dense populations of big states like California and Florida. And sometimes there are cookies. | Better to ask and learn than live in ignorance. The Iowa caucuses are the first decision of the presidential election, and a means for the rural state to influence a national election that is often dominated by the dense populations of big states like California and Florida. And sometimes there are cookies. |
| They caucuses start at 7pm local time, though campaigns recommend Iowans get there early – once you’re late you’re out. | They caucuses start at 7pm local time, though campaigns recommend Iowans get there early – once you’re late you’re out. |
| How do they work? | How do they work? |
| Video editor Valerie Lapinski explains. | Video editor Valerie Lapinski explains. |
| Some other notes: | Some other notes: |
| Related: How the Iowa caucuses work: a confusing election process explained | Related: How the Iowa caucuses work: a confusing election process explained |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.06pm GMT | at 2.06pm GMT |
| 1.31pm GMT | 1.31pm GMT |
| 13:31 | 13:31 |
| One last one last poll, this one from Quinnipiac University and with an emphasis on the giant question that looms over even the very large head and hair of Donald Trump: who will actually come out to caucus? | One last one last poll, this one from Quinnipiac University and with an emphasis on the giant question that looms over even the very large head and hair of Donald Trump: who will actually come out to caucus? |
| For first-time likely caucus goers, Trump has a steady lead over Texas senator Ted Cruz, 31% to 24%. Florida senator Marco Rubio has gained, with 17%, and Ben Carson is hovering only a little above rest of the pack at 8%. No one else has more than 4%. | For first-time likely caucus goers, Trump has a steady lead over Texas senator Ted Cruz, 31% to 24%. Florida senator Marco Rubio has gained, with 17%, and Ben Carson is hovering only a little above rest of the pack at 8%. No one else has more than 4%. |
| But for Republicans who’ve caucused before, the race is far closer. Among these caucusers, Cruz leads Trump 26% to 25%. Rubio’s got 20%. | But for Republicans who’ve caucused before, the race is far closer. Among these caucusers, Cruz leads Trump 26% to 25%. Rubio’s got 20%. |
| Twenty-eight percent of the people who named a candidate said they might still change their mind, and 3% said they were undecided. | Twenty-eight percent of the people who named a candidate said they might still change their mind, and 3% said they were undecided. |
| The Democratic race has a similar dynamic. Bernie Sanders leads Clinton 62% to 35% with would be first-time caucusers. Clinton has the edge 52-41% with Iowans who’ve shown up to caucuses before. There’s less room to maneuver, though: only 2% say they’re undecided, and only 14% of those who named a candidate say they might change their mind. Martin O’Malley’s supporters amount to 3% of the people surveyed, in line with other polls. | The Democratic race has a similar dynamic. Bernie Sanders leads Clinton 62% to 35% with would be first-time caucusers. Clinton has the edge 52-41% with Iowans who’ve shown up to caucuses before. There’s less room to maneuver, though: only 2% say they’re undecided, and only 14% of those who named a candidate say they might change their mind. Martin O’Malley’s supporters amount to 3% of the people surveyed, in line with other polls. |
| All of this means high turnout should be good for Trump and Sanders, low turnout good for Cruz and Clinton – and that we shouldn’t be surprised to see campaigns doing everything they can to get people voting or staying home, as it suits their candidates’ interests. | All of this means high turnout should be good for Trump and Sanders, low turnout good for Cruz and Clinton – and that we shouldn’t be surprised to see campaigns doing everything they can to get people voting or staying home, as it suits their candidates’ interests. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.53pm GMT | at 1.53pm GMT |
| 1.07pm GMT | 1.07pm GMT |
| 13:07 | 13:07 |
| Iowa caucus day begins | Iowa caucus day begins |
| Hello and welcome to our coverage of the Iowa caucuses – the long awaited first decision day of the 2016 primary elections. | Hello and welcome to our coverage of the Iowa caucuses – the long awaited first decision day of the 2016 primary elections. |
| Astounding his party, pundits, pollsters and plenty of Americans, billionaire Donald Trump has sailed into caucus day with a lead for the Republican nomination in one of Iowa’s most trusted polls. Trump lead Texas senator Ted Cruz by five points in the Des Moines register poll, with Florida senator Marco Rubio a little further back. Trump and Cruz have exasperated Republican leaders and moderates, but like populists and a few presidents past they look poised to thrive in the Hawkeye state. | Astounding his party, pundits, pollsters and plenty of Americans, billionaire Donald Trump has sailed into caucus day with a lead for the Republican nomination in one of Iowa’s most trusted polls. Trump lead Texas senator Ted Cruz by five points in the Des Moines register poll, with Florida senator Marco Rubio a little further back. Trump and Cruz have exasperated Republican leaders and moderates, but like populists and a few presidents past they look poised to thrive in the Hawkeye state. |
| Democratic leader Hillary Clinton faces the possibility of déja vù: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders trailed her by only three points in the final Iowa poll, within the margin of error and with the enthusiasm of thousands at his back. Sanders is hoping for an upset to jump start his political revolution, and Clinton is hoping to secure her place as the party’s pragmatist-in-chief. | Democratic leader Hillary Clinton faces the possibility of déja vù: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders trailed her by only three points in the final Iowa poll, within the margin of error and with the enthusiasm of thousands at his back. Sanders is hoping for an upset to jump start his political revolution, and Clinton is hoping to secure her place as the party’s pragmatist-in-chief. |
| But if the 2016 election has proven anything before its first decision, it’s that Americans have a huge appetite for chaos in their democracy. Republicans Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are all still hoping – maybe a little desperately – for surprise strength in Iowa, as are former Iowa winners Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. | But if the 2016 election has proven anything before its first decision, it’s that Americans have a huge appetite for chaos in their democracy. Republicans Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are all still hoping – maybe a little desperately – for surprise strength in Iowa, as are former Iowa winners Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. |
| Former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, or at least his support, remains a key factor that could turn the close Democratic race. | Former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, or at least his support, remains a key factor that could turn the close Democratic race. |
| Caucuses begin in Iowa at 7pm local time (8pm Eastern, 1am GMT) and we can expect results around 11pm local (midnight ET, 5am GMT). | Caucuses begin in Iowa at 7pm local time (8pm Eastern, 1am GMT) and we can expect results around 11pm local (midnight ET, 5am GMT). |
| In Iowa for the Guardian US are head of news David Taylor, DC bureau chief Dan Roberts, west coast bureau chief Paul Lewis, political reporters Ben Jacobs and Sabrina Siddiqui and editor-at-large Gary Younge. National reporter Lauren Gambino and columnist Richard Wolffe are in New Hampshire, the next primary state – and a battleground where Sanders leads Clinton by 20 points and Rubio is gaining strength against Trump. | In Iowa for the Guardian US are head of news David Taylor, DC bureau chief Dan Roberts, west coast bureau chief Paul Lewis, political reporters Ben Jacobs and Sabrina Siddiqui and editor-at-large Gary Younge. National reporter Lauren Gambino and columnist Richard Wolffe are in New Hampshire, the next primary state – and a battleground where Sanders leads Clinton by 20 points and Rubio is gaining strength against Trump. |
| So we’ll bring you all the news and throw in some glories of American democracy too. There’s a patriotic tractor with a hologram eagle. Pheasant hunting with Trump sons. Bernie Sanders ice cream. Republican sea ice sophistry. Derelict campaign bus protest art projects. Five thousand people singing folk songs. Three generations of Clinton. | So we’ll bring you all the news and throw in some glories of American democracy too. There’s a patriotic tractor with a hologram eagle. Pheasant hunting with Trump sons. Bernie Sanders ice cream. Republican sea ice sophistry. Derelict campaign bus protest art projects. Five thousand people singing folk songs. Three generations of Clinton. |
| Election 2016 starts today. | Election 2016 starts today. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.12pm GMT | at 2.12pm GMT |