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| Election live: Trump and Clinton lead on day of Iowa caucuses | Election live: Trump and Clinton lead on day of Iowa caucuses |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 7.02pm GMT | |
| 19:02 | |
| Scott Bixby | |
| President Barack Obama hasn’t endorsed any of the Democratic presidential hopefuls this cycle - despite rumors of an imminent White House mic drop being peddled furiously by members of a certain former secretary of state’s campaign. | |
| While Hillary Clinton’s campaign shivers with antici... pation for that endorsement, the ex-member of Obama’s cabinet isn’t holding back any file video of the president piling on the positive descriptors. | |
| Hillary is "one of the finest Secretary of States we've had." —@POTUShttps://t.co/hl6fBFBBRb | |
| In a tweet from Clinton’s official Twitter account, she points to a 60 Minutes interview from 2013 after she stepped down as secretary of state, in which Obama called her “one of the finest secretary of states we’ve had.” | |
| “It has been a great collaboration over the last four years,” Obama continued in that interview. “I’m going to miss her. Wish she was sticking around ... But I want the country to appreciate just what an extraordinary role she’s played during the course of my administration and a lot of the successes we’ve had internationally have been because of her hard work.” | |
| 6.50pm GMT | |
| 18:50 | |
| Ben Jacobs | |
| The Iowa caucuses are perhaps the most important yet mysterious contest in American politics. The concept of an election is familiar to everyone – but by its very name, a caucus sounds different and archaic. However, give or take a few wrinkles, the Iowa caucuses are simply another election, held on a cold winter’s night in the Hawkeye State. But those wrinkles do matter quite a bit. | |
| Is it the same process for Democrats and Republicans? | |
| No. Whereas Republicans have a relatively straightforward process, in which they cast secret ballots in their precinct caucuses, it’s far more complex for Democrats. | |
| Republicans | |
| Republicans have a secret ballot. Voters take a piece of paper and mark the name of the candidate whom they support. These votes get counted in each precinct and reported to the state party. | |
| These totals are supposed to be reflected in the final Republican delegation to the national convention. Rules implemented after Ron Paul finished third on caucus night in 2012 but eventually controlled Iowa’s delegation are supposed to enforce this. | |
| The totals reported on caucus night are simply normal vote tallies as in any other election. | |
| That is not the case with Democrats. | |
| Democrats | |
| Democratic caucuses are quite undemocratic. Each precinct is apportioned a number of delegates based on Democratic turnout in the past two elections. It’s like an electoral college at a micro level. | |
| This means turnout doesn’t matter. If a precinct is supposed to have five delegates to the county convention, it doesn’t matter if eight people show up to the Democratic caucus or 800. The precinct is still only getting five delegates. (Precincts elect people to the county convention, which elects people to the district convention, which elects people to the state convention.) | |
| After attendees show up to a Democratic caucus, they are divided into preference groups based on candidates whom they support. Bernie Sanders supporters will stand in one area, Hillary Clinton supporters in another. Once everyone is separated, there is a first count of how many supporters each candidate has. | |
| To be viable in each precinct, a candidate usually needs to receive the support of 15% of those who attend, although in some small rural precincts, the threshold is higher. | |
| If a candidate’s support is under that threshold, his or her supporters need to induce others to join their group in order to reach 15%. If they are unsuccessful in doing so, their candidate is not considered viable and they can either go home or support a candidate who is viable instead. There is then a second count of supporters for each candidate and, from those totals, delegates are assigned. | |
| This means that if Democratic candidates are polling under 15% statewide on caucus night, they could significantly underperform compared to their polling. | |
| Key demographic groups | |
| Despite this socially conservative slant, the key group in Iowa on the Republican side in 2016 will be more moderate “country club” Republicans. With Donald Trump and Ted Cruz appealing to those conservative voters looking for red meat, if moderate Republicans in the eastern part of the state coalesce behind one establishment candidate – Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush or Chris Christie – it could make this a three-person primary, with evangelical, conservative and establishment camps each emerging with a viable contender. | |
| On the Democratic side, students will be the key demographic to watch. This will be the first Iowa caucus in over a decade that has taken place when colleges and universities are in session. If Bernie Sanders can successfully organize and turn out young people across the state, it could give him an edge in several key counties across the state. | |
| Turnout will also be important on the Republican side, as many of the voters most attracted to Trump’s candidacy are new to the political process. The higher the turnout, the better for Trump. In contrast, overall turnout is a mixed indicator for the Democratic primary. While Sanders is also hoping to turn out a number of voters new to the political process, an increase in turnout doesn’t necessarily bode well for him. After all, while Clinton may have lost the state in 2008, she still vastly surpassed her vote goals and likely turned out more people than every other Democratic candidate in the history of the caucuses besides Obama. | |
| Related: How the Iowa caucuses work: a confusing election process explained | |
| 6.28pm GMT | 6.28pm GMT |
| 18:28 | 18:28 |
| Amber Jamieson | Amber Jamieson |
| A fire started in Adele’s heart by Donald Trump has finally reached fever pitch, with the UK pop star banning the US presidential candidates from using her music. | |
| “Adele has not given permission for her music to be used for any political campaigning,” her spokesperson told the Independent. | |
| For months, Adele’s smash hits Rolling In The Deep (“We could have had it all”) and Skyfall (“Let the sky fall/When it crumbles/We will stand tall/Face it all together”) have blasted out at Trump rallies to warm up crowds. | |
| Mike Huckabee made a recent parody campaign video using her recent hit “Hello”, but it was quickly removed from YouTube. | Mike Huckabee made a recent parody campaign video using her recent hit “Hello”, but it was quickly removed from YouTube. |
| The six-time Grammy winner had avoided making a statement about the use of her music by any political candidates until now. | |
| Trump attended Adele’s one-off Radio City Music Hall concert last November, but it seems she is not willing to give him the same endorsement. | |
| When Trump likes Adele 😐 #waitingforadele pic.twitter.com/Pz37U7d1Ha | When Trump likes Adele 😐 #waitingforadele pic.twitter.com/Pz37U7d1Ha |
| Other artists have also objected to their songs being played at Trump rallies, with Steve Tyler of Aerosmith sending a cease-and-desist letter to Trump after the billionaire kept playing Dream On. | Other artists have also objected to their songs being played at Trump rallies, with Steve Tyler of Aerosmith sending a cease-and-desist letter to Trump after the billionaire kept playing Dream On. |
| Trump stopped playing the song, but argued that the incident amounted to a publicity stunt for Tyler. “Steven Tyler got more publicity on his song request than he’s gotten in ten years,” he tweeted in October. “Good for him!” | |
| Even though I have the legal right to use Steven Tyler’s song, he asked me not to. Have better one to take its place! | Even though I have the legal right to use Steven Tyler’s song, he asked me not to. Have better one to take its place! |
| But Trump isn’t yet ready to say goodbye to Adele yet - he exited the stage in Iowa earlier today to one of her tracks. | |
| Updated | |
| at 6.35pm GMT | |
| 6.10pm GMT | 6.10pm GMT |
| 18:10 | 18:10 |
| Miscellany from the field (via Twitter). CNN’s Jeff Zeleny is with Bernie Sanders, who’s stopped by his Des Moines campaign headquarters to rally the team for tonight’s caucuses. | Miscellany from the field (via Twitter). CNN’s Jeff Zeleny is with Bernie Sanders, who’s stopped by his Des Moines campaign headquarters to rally the team for tonight’s caucuses. |
| He tells them the message of the polls: | He tells them the message of the polls: |
| "We will win tonight if voter turnout is high. We will struggle tonight if voter turnout is low. That's a fact," @BernieSanders says today. | "We will win tonight if voter turnout is high. We will struggle tonight if voter turnout is low. That's a fact," @BernieSanders says today. |
| NBC’s Andrea Mitchell is meanwhile with the deflated Rick Santorum, who over four years has gone from king of the Pizza Ranch to honorary employee. Santorum will be | NBC’s Andrea Mitchell is meanwhile with the deflated Rick Santorum, who over four years has gone from king of the Pizza Ranch to honorary employee. Santorum will be |
| damned | damned |
| darned though if he doesn’t try to deflate Ted Cruz. | darned though if he doesn’t try to deflate Ted Cruz. |
| .@RickSantorum: @tedcruz said everybody in Washington hates him. Not sure how you're going to get anything done if everybody hates you #AMR | .@RickSantorum: @tedcruz said everybody in Washington hates him. Not sure how you're going to get anything done if everybody hates you #AMR |
| And Politico’s Kenneth Vogle crunches some numbers from the weekend’s campaign finance disclosures. Trump spent least, Casich spent most; Clinton and Sanders have the most money in their pockets. | And Politico’s Kenneth Vogle crunches some numbers from the weekend’s campaign finance disclosures. Trump spent least, Casich spent most; Clinton and Sanders have the most money in their pockets. |
| Cash on hand (12/31/15):1) Clinton $38M2) Sanders $28M3) Cruz $18M 4) Rubio $10M5) Bush $8M6) Trump $7M7) Carson $7M8) Fiorina $4M | Cash on hand (12/31/15):1) Clinton $38M2) Sanders $28M3) Cruz $18M 4) Rubio $10M5) Bush $8M6) Trump $7M7) Carson $7M8) Fiorina $4M |
| 5.39pm GMT | 5.39pm GMT |
| 17:39 | 17:39 |
| Trump promises 'positive revolution' | Trump promises 'positive revolution' |
| Trump concludes his speech with a call to get out and caucus tonight. “It’s we, it’s a movement,” he says. “It’s not me, it’s we.” | Trump concludes his speech with a call to get out and caucus tonight. “It’s we, it’s a movement,” he says. “It’s not me, it’s we.” |
| He tells them that nothing – not weather, not illness, not a thing – should stop them from going out to vote. “If the doctor says you cannot leave, I don’t care, get outta bed” – the crowd laughs – “you gotta do it.” | He tells them that nothing – not weather, not illness, not a thing – should stop them from going out to vote. “If the doctor says you cannot leave, I don’t care, get outta bed” – the crowd laughs – “you gotta do it.” |
| And finally he channels a bit of Bernie Sanders, saying that he wants voters to make this election the beginning of a “revolution”: “in a certain way a very positive revolution. I mean, this would be a very, very positive revolution.” | And finally he channels a bit of Bernie Sanders, saying that he wants voters to make this election the beginning of a “revolution”: “in a certain way a very positive revolution. I mean, this would be a very, very positive revolution.” |
| He says he’s going to remember everybody. “And I love you all, special people, thank you all.” | He says he’s going to remember everybody. “And I love you all, special people, thank you all.” |
| An Adele song serenades him out. | An Adele song serenades him out. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.24pm GMT | at 6.24pm GMT |
| 5.34pm GMT | 5.34pm GMT |
| 17:34 | 17:34 |
| “You know Obama’s a terrible negotiator,” except when negotiating with Republicans, Trump continues. | “You know Obama’s a terrible negotiator,” except when negotiating with Republicans, Trump continues. |
| “I’m not even angry,” he says. | “I’m not even angry,” he says. |
| I’m not angry at the Democrats because we understand where they’re coming from. I’m angry at the Republicans because the Republicans just roll over and allow this stuff to take place. | I’m not angry at the Democrats because we understand where they’re coming from. I’m angry at the Republicans because the Republicans just roll over and allow this stuff to take place. |
| He segues to gun control, and says that had people had guns during November’s Paris terrorist attacks, 130 people would not have died. Trump has used the massacre to argue in favor of gun rights for months, though not always so explicitly. | He segues to gun control, and says that had people had guns during November’s Paris terrorist attacks, 130 people would not have died. Trump has used the massacre to argue in favor of gun rights for months, though not always so explicitly. |
| He moves on to the Syrian refugee crisis and foreign affairs, saying that he would make the Gulf States deal with the chaos of the Syrian civil war. They would have to create and manage “a big, fat, beautiful safe zone”, he says. | He moves on to the Syrian refugee crisis and foreign affairs, saying that he would make the Gulf States deal with the chaos of the Syrian civil war. They would have to create and manage “a big, fat, beautiful safe zone”, he says. |
| “We protect Germany, we protect Saudi Arabia, we protect Japan,” he says, bemoaning US military bases abroad and the protection treaties between countries. | “We protect Germany, we protect Saudi Arabia, we protect Japan,” he says, bemoaning US military bases abroad and the protection treaties between countries. |
| The billionaire criticizes the Gulf States for not “putting any money toward the migrants.” | The billionaire criticizes the Gulf States for not “putting any money toward the migrants.” |
| By the way I have a big heart, I want to take care of [these people], but they are not coming into this country. | By the way I have a big heart, I want to take care of [these people], but they are not coming into this country. |
| “It’s going to all change, folks. It’s going to all change.” | “It’s going to all change, folks. It’s going to all change.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.00pm GMT | at 6.00pm GMT |
| 5.27pm GMT | 5.27pm GMT |
| 17:27 | 17:27 |
| Trump offers the crowd a surprisingly anti-materialistic philosophy for a billionaire who has gilded parts of his personal jet. | Trump offers the crowd a surprisingly anti-materialistic philosophy for a billionaire who has gilded parts of his personal jet. |
| “I’ve seen people, I’ve seen the most successful people in the world,” he says, some of whom are actually not happy at all.” | “I’ve seen people, I’ve seen the most successful people in the world,” he says, some of whom are actually not happy at all.” |
| “Someone who’s made millions of dollars and does not feel so great about themselves and is always wanting more more more.” | “Someone who’s made millions of dollars and does not feel so great about themselves and is always wanting more more more.” |
| But “the happiest people I’ve seen”, he says, have great families. | But “the happiest people I’ve seen”, he says, have great families. |
| “And by the way believing in God is so important, and I’ve seen that so much.” Segue to conservative Christians. | “And by the way believing in God is so important, and I’ve seen that so much.” Segue to conservative Christians. |
| “The evangelicals have been unbelievable to Donald Trump … Boy, do they understand me. They understand me better than anybody. | “The evangelicals have been unbelievable to Donald Trump … Boy, do they understand me. They understand me better than anybody. |
| We’re gonna protect our country. We’re gonna protect christianity. You know, Christianity is under siege, folks. | We’re gonna protect our country. We’re gonna protect christianity. You know, Christianity is under siege, folks. |
| He segues to Mexico and the wall. Mexico’s definitely gonna pay for it, he says, because they make so much money even before he starts considering “the drug trafficking”. | He segues to Mexico and the wall. Mexico’s definitely gonna pay for it, he says, because they make so much money even before he starts considering “the drug trafficking”. |
| He’ll build a great wall, though. “What I do best in life is build, you know? I’ve built these buildings that are so great,” he says. | He’ll build a great wall, though. “What I do best in life is build, you know? I’ve built these buildings that are so great,” he says. |
| I say it not in a braggadocious way but that’s the kind of thinking we need in this country. … We have people who don’t know what they’re doing. We have $19tn [debt]. This isn’t a word that was in the vocabulary 10 years ago. | I say it not in a braggadocious way but that’s the kind of thinking we need in this country. … We have people who don’t know what they’re doing. We have $19tn [debt]. This isn’t a word that was in the vocabulary 10 years ago. |
| NB: “braggadocious” is only sort of a real word in the vocabulary 10 years ago, depending on your dictionary politics. | NB: “braggadocious” is only sort of a real word in the vocabulary 10 years ago, depending on your dictionary politics. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.24pm GMT | at 6.24pm GMT |
| 5.12pm GMT | 5.12pm GMT |
| 17:12 | 17:12 |
| Donald Trump is holding a rally in Waterloo, Iowa. | Donald Trump is holding a rally in Waterloo, Iowa. |
| He’s standing with some men who’re holding an oversized check. One is “Tim with Americans for Independent Living,” a veterans organization from the city. | He’s standing with some men who’re holding an oversized check. One is “Tim with Americans for Independent Living,” a veterans organization from the city. |
| “I like him,” Trump says. “These people are amazing. Some of the people we’re giving this money to, they’re incredible people. It’s such an honor to be in a country with people like this.” | “I like him,” Trump says. “These people are amazing. Some of the people we’re giving this money to, they’re incredible people. It’s such an honor to be in a country with people like this.” |
| Then he introduces his wife Melania, who’s been “so supportive”. They trade glancing kisses, the smacking sound of which is audible through the mic. He introduces his daughter Ivanka and her husband. | Then he introduces his wife Melania, who’s been “so supportive”. They trade glancing kisses, the smacking sound of which is audible through the mic. He introduces his daughter Ivanka and her husband. |
| “Jared’s a very successful man from New York he’s done a fantastic job, he’s done a lot of real estate.” | “Jared’s a very successful man from New York he’s done a fantastic job, he’s done a lot of real estate.” |
| Then he jokes that his daughter is “going to have a baby perhaps in 10 minutes, or a week or two weeks.” | Then he jokes that his daughter is “going to have a baby perhaps in 10 minutes, or a week or two weeks.” |
| “Nice family is always the best thing, you know that, right?” | “Nice family is always the best thing, you know that, right?” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.20pm GMT | at 6.20pm GMT |
| 5.01pm GMT | 5.01pm GMT |
| 17:01 | 17:01 |
| Bernie Sanders has been endorsed by a “servant of the moon” in Fairfield, Iowa, where my colleague Dan Roberts is interviewing the mystical men and Sweden-friendly women who are out to support the senator from Vermont. | Bernie Sanders has been endorsed by a “servant of the moon” in Fairfield, Iowa, where my colleague Dan Roberts is interviewing the mystical men and Sweden-friendly women who are out to support the senator from Vermont. |
| “I ride my bike and I blast Frank Zappa music,” one told Dan. As for Sanders: “he’s off the charts, he’s off the grid.” | “I ride my bike and I blast Frank Zappa music,” one told Dan. As for Sanders: “he’s off the charts, he’s off the grid.” |
| 4.49pm GMT | 4.49pm GMT |
| 16:49 | 16:49 |
| Every four years the threats of self-imposed exile begin again, though were they likely loudest during George W Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign. Should the Republican win, liberals warned, they’ll up and move to Canada. | Every four years the threats of self-imposed exile begin again, though were they likely loudest during George W Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign. Should the Republican win, liberals warned, they’ll up and move to Canada. |
| Turns out some of them did. Jordan Teicher reports on the men and women who moved to Vancouver to escape living in a country led by Bush. | Turns out some of them did. Jordan Teicher reports on the men and women who moved to Vancouver to escape living in a country led by Bush. |
| “It’s been a little over a decade now. We have clear eyes about what we did. We have no intention of going back,” Drucker said. | “It’s been a little over a decade now. We have clear eyes about what we did. We have no intention of going back,” Drucker said. |
| On election day in 2004, a record-setting 179,000 people visited Canada’s official immigration website, the majority of them Americans. And as anxieties about the outcome of 2016 begin to grow, some Americans are again musing about fleeing to their northern neighbor. | On election day in 2004, a record-setting 179,000 people visited Canada’s official immigration website, the majority of them Americans. And as anxieties about the outcome of 2016 begin to grow, some Americans are again musing about fleeing to their northern neighbor. |
| In September, the digital analytics firm Luminoso found about 4% of 4.5 million Donald Trump-related tweets contained threats to leave the country if the billionaire became president. | In September, the digital analytics firm Luminoso found about 4% of 4.5 million Donald Trump-related tweets contained threats to leave the country if the billionaire became president. |
| Of those, 25,000 identified Canada as their intended destination. Since then, comedian and Obama “anger translator” Keegan-Michael Key has joined the chorus. Even former USdefense secretary Robert Gates joked about emigrating if Trump took office. | Of those, 25,000 identified Canada as their intended destination. Since then, comedian and Obama “anger translator” Keegan-Michael Key has joined the chorus. Even former USdefense secretary Robert Gates joked about emigrating if Trump took office. |
| According to the Canadian government, only about 9,000 Americans have emigrated to Canada every year in the years between 2005 and 2015. | According to the Canadian government, only about 9,000 Americans have emigrated to Canada every year in the years between 2005 and 2015. |
| Jim DeLaHunt left an engineering management position with Adobe in California for uncertain prospects in Canada after Bush’s re-election. Leaving behind his country’s penchant for authoritarianism, war and inequality, he says, was the right call. | Jim DeLaHunt left an engineering management position with Adobe in California for uncertain prospects in Canada after Bush’s re-election. Leaving behind his country’s penchant for authoritarianism, war and inequality, he says, was the right call. |
| DeLaHunt, now a tech consultant, misses the scale and ambition of the technology industry in the United States, but says he wouldn’t trade life in Vancouver to go back to it. He and his wife integrated easily into Canadian society, he said, learning how to be “less arrogant and a bit more gentle”, and even picking up local etiquette and speech patterns. | DeLaHunt, now a tech consultant, misses the scale and ambition of the technology industry in the United States, but says he wouldn’t trade life in Vancouver to go back to it. He and his wife integrated easily into Canadian society, he said, learning how to be “less arrogant and a bit more gentle”, and even picking up local etiquette and speech patterns. |
| “Canadians say ‘sorry’ a lot more than people in the US do. They thank the bus driver as they get off the bus. In the US, if someone says ‘thank you’ a typical response might be ‘sure’. That seems awfully brusque in Canada. A better response is, ‘No worries.’ There’s little things like that, and if you get those things right you blend in on a day-to-day level,” he said. | “Canadians say ‘sorry’ a lot more than people in the US do. They thank the bus driver as they get off the bus. In the US, if someone says ‘thank you’ a typical response might be ‘sure’. That seems awfully brusque in Canada. A better response is, ‘No worries.’ There’s little things like that, and if you get those things right you blend in on a day-to-day level,” he said. |
| For Laura Kaminker, however, that’s completely out of the question. In the 20 years before she and her partner Allan Wood finally moved to Canada from New York City in 2005, she had “lost hope” in the country she saw plagued by “civil liberties crackdowns” and “endless wars”. | For Laura Kaminker, however, that’s completely out of the question. In the 20 years before she and her partner Allan Wood finally moved to Canada from New York City in 2005, she had “lost hope” in the country she saw plagued by “civil liberties crackdowns” and “endless wars”. |
| Although she still has her American citizenship, she doesn’t vote any more in US elections, and whenever she comes back to Canada after visiting family or friends in the States, she breathes a sigh of relief. | Although she still has her American citizenship, she doesn’t vote any more in US elections, and whenever she comes back to Canada after visiting family or friends in the States, she breathes a sigh of relief. |
| “Every time I say, ‘God, I’m so glad to be out of that crazy country,’” she said. | “Every time I say, ‘God, I’m so glad to be out of that crazy country,’” she said. |
| Related: 'An alternative exists': the US citizens who vowed to flee to Canada – and did | Related: 'An alternative exists': the US citizens who vowed to flee to Canada – and did |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.57pm GMT | at 4.57pm GMT |
| 4.33pm GMT | 4.33pm GMT |
| 16:33 | 16:33 |
| Ben Jacobs | Ben Jacobs |
| Six Republican candidates will sit down to take an interview with one man on Monday: Britain-born radio host Simon Conway, an unlikely icon of Iowa conservatives and “one of the proudest citizens of the United States, ever”. | Six Republican candidates will sit down to take an interview with one man on Monday: Britain-born radio host Simon Conway, an unlikely icon of Iowa conservatives and “one of the proudest citizens of the United States, ever”. |
| Conway’s patriotic, country musi opening isn’t unusual for any rightwing talk show host – particularly one who, in Conway’s case, will on Monday interview six Republican candidates on the day of the caucuses. | Conway’s patriotic, country musi opening isn’t unusual for any rightwing talk show host – particularly one who, in Conway’s case, will on Monday interview six Republican candidates on the day of the caucuses. |
| What is unusual is that when Conway takes the microphone, he speaks in an estuary inflected English accent. | What is unusual is that when Conway takes the microphone, he speaks in an estuary inflected English accent. |
| Although Conway takes pains to “point out I am American – born British, naturalized American now”, the accent does make him a somewhat unusual kingmaker. Tea Party radio hosts in early voting states are not often born in London. | Although Conway takes pains to “point out I am American – born British, naturalized American now”, the accent does make him a somewhat unusual kingmaker. Tea Party radio hosts in early voting states are not often born in London. |
| After a career in journalism and corporate communications in the UK, Conway moved to Orlando, Florida in 2001. He entered the real estate business, which he found very competitive. | After a career in journalism and corporate communications in the UK, Conway moved to Orlando, Florida in 2001. He entered the real estate business, which he found very competitive. |
| “There are thousands of people selling real estate in Orlando, literally,” he told the Guardian. | “There are thousands of people selling real estate in Orlando, literally,” he told the Guardian. |
| So he tried to distinguish himself by buying time on the radio. He got himself a one-hour weekend show and fell in love with the medium. | So he tried to distinguish himself by buying time on the radio. He got himself a one-hour weekend show and fell in love with the medium. |
| “From the very first moment I was on the air,” he said, “I did not talk about real estate. It was like an epiphany. I had come home.” | “From the very first moment I was on the air,” he said, “I did not talk about real estate. It was like an epiphany. I had come home.” |
| Conway fell into a career as a fill-in talk show host, travelling across the US to what he described as “major, major stations”. In 2011, he took a job at WHO. | Conway fell into a career as a fill-in talk show host, travelling across the US to what he described as “major, major stations”. In 2011, he took a job at WHO. |
| Speaking to the Guardian, as he enthused about his Iowa workplace, one the most recognized and honored radio stations in the US and a long-time employer of Ronald Reagan, he said: “If you’re serious about talk radio, this isn’t a job you turn down.” | Speaking to the Guardian, as he enthused about his Iowa workplace, one the most recognized and honored radio stations in the US and a long-time employer of Ronald Reagan, he said: “If you’re serious about talk radio, this isn’t a job you turn down.” |
| “I am an equal-opportunity hater. I treat people the same whether I agree with them or [they] don’t agree with me. I will always challenge their positions. | “I am an equal-opportunity hater. I treat people the same whether I agree with them or [they] don’t agree with me. I will always challenge their positions. |
| “There are [as many] Republicans who don’t want to face those questions as there are Democrats. The likes of [Ohio governor] John Kasich haven’t been in my studio because he knows it isn’t going to end well.” | “There are [as many] Republicans who don’t want to face those questions as there are Democrats. The likes of [Ohio governor] John Kasich haven’t been in my studio because he knows it isn’t going to end well.” |
| Conway worries, meanwhile, that the US is becoming like Great Britain. “People rely on government too much in the UK,” he said. “‘Government is the solution. Government will take care of me.’” | Conway worries, meanwhile, that the US is becoming like Great Britain. “People rely on government too much in the UK,” he said. “‘Government is the solution. Government will take care of me.’” |
| On Monday, just before Iowans head to the caucuses, he will share such warnings again, not just with a listening audience of tens of thousands, but potentially the next president as well. | On Monday, just before Iowans head to the caucuses, he will share such warnings again, not just with a listening audience of tens of thousands, but potentially the next president as well. |
| Related: Iowa radio's 'proudest American citizen' is a rightwing kingmaker – and British | Related: Iowa radio's 'proudest American citizen' is a rightwing kingmaker – and British |
| 4.14pm GMT | 4.14pm GMT |
| 16:14 | 16:14 |
| Texas senator Ted Cruz has had a hard weekend. He’s locked in a close race for Iowa’s most conservative voters with Donald Trump, who has mocked and derided Cruz as a “nasty guy” and “anchor baby in Canada” for weeks. | Texas senator Ted Cruz has had a hard weekend. He’s locked in a close race for Iowa’s most conservative voters with Donald Trump, who has mocked and derided Cruz as a “nasty guy” and “anchor baby in Canada” for weeks. |
| Cruz’s favorable ratings have dropped … even with his family. Buzzfeed’s Rachel Zarrell has gif’d Sunday’s painful moment. | Cruz’s favorable ratings have dropped … even with his family. Buzzfeed’s Rachel Zarrell has gif’d Sunday’s painful moment. |
| when even your daughter wouldn't vote for you pic.twitter.com/nxC2lhLNZc | when even your daughter wouldn't vote for you pic.twitter.com/nxC2lhLNZc |
| 3.59pm GMT | 3.59pm GMT |
| 15:59 | 15:59 |
| Lauren Gambino | Lauren Gambino |
| New Hampshire was supposed to be where Jeb Bush had his comeback. Or where Chris Christie had his breakout moment. Or where Marco Rubio solidified his momentum. | New Hampshire was supposed to be where Jeb Bush had his comeback. Or where Chris Christie had his breakout moment. Or where Marco Rubio solidified his momentum. |
| In the last few days Ohio governor John Kasich has had New Hampshire all to himself while the other Republicans blanket Iowa in search of last-minute votes. On Sunday Kasich held his 85th and 86th town hall style events in the state. | In the last few days Ohio governor John Kasich has had New Hampshire all to himself while the other Republicans blanket Iowa in search of last-minute votes. On Sunday Kasich held his 85th and 86th town hall style events in the state. |
| “I’m a lot more interested in talking about what I’m for than the people who are in the primary up here in New Hampshire,” Kasich told to the dozens of voters who came out on a sunny winter’s day in Salem. “ I want to raise the bar. I want us to regain hope in this country. We can make this country work again.” The audience broke into applause. | “I’m a lot more interested in talking about what I’m for than the people who are in the primary up here in New Hampshire,” Kasich told to the dozens of voters who came out on a sunny winter’s day in Salem. “ I want to raise the bar. I want us to regain hope in this country. We can make this country work again.” The audience broke into applause. |
| While his opponents tap into voters frustration, preaching doom and gloom, Kasich is wooing moderate Republicans and Independent voters at schools, churches, gymnasiums and community centers across the state with a decidedly sunny vision for the country. And it seems to be working. | While his opponents tap into voters frustration, preaching doom and gloom, Kasich is wooing moderate Republicans and Independent voters at schools, churches, gymnasiums and community centers across the state with a decidedly sunny vision for the country. And it seems to be working. |
| A series of recent state polls show Kasich’s steady rise – and complicated path forward – placing him in a tie for second place with three different candidates – Bush, Rubio and Ted Cruz. A RealClearPolitics.com average of state polls confirms his second place standing there behind longtime Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. | A series of recent state polls show Kasich’s steady rise – and complicated path forward – placing him in a tie for second place with three different candidates – Bush, Rubio and Ted Cruz. A RealClearPolitics.com average of state polls confirms his second place standing there behind longtime Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. |
| In Bow on Sunday night, with a national debt clock ticking behind him, Kasich himself as a conservative, pointing to his record on fiscal issues in Congress and as governor. In a race defined so far by bombast and dire visions of America, Kasich answered voters with careful but decidedly, even confidently, moderate answers. | In Bow on Sunday night, with a national debt clock ticking behind him, Kasich himself as a conservative, pointing to his record on fiscal issues in Congress and as governor. In a race defined so far by bombast and dire visions of America, Kasich answered voters with careful but decidedly, even confidently, moderate answers. |
| “If you’re in the cupcake business and somebody comes in and wants cupcakes, sell them cupcakes, that’s my feeling about that.“I won’t have an argument about who you’re selling the cupcake to, I just don’t agree with that,” Kasich said, told a voter who was concerned about the erosion of religious liberties. | “If you’re in the cupcake business and somebody comes in and wants cupcakes, sell them cupcakes, that’s my feeling about that.“I won’t have an argument about who you’re selling the cupcake to, I just don’t agree with that,” Kasich said, told a voter who was concerned about the erosion of religious liberties. |
| When a first-time voter asked him why Republicans shy away from the topic of climate change, Kasich told him: “Do I believe that human beings affect the climate? I do,” Kasich told the young voter on Sunday afternoon. “But we don’t quite know how much. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t things we need to do.” | When a first-time voter asked him why Republicans shy away from the topic of climate change, Kasich told him: “Do I believe that human beings affect the climate? I do,” Kasich told the young voter on Sunday afternoon. “But we don’t quite know how much. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t things we need to do.” |
| Kasich has mostly forsaken the race in Iowa, placing his best hopes in New Hampshire where he has built momentum over the past few months that he hopes will power his campaign through the next few primaries and on to Super Tuesday and beyond. | Kasich has mostly forsaken the race in Iowa, placing his best hopes in New Hampshire where he has built momentum over the past few months that he hopes will power his campaign through the next few primaries and on to Super Tuesday and beyond. |
| Tom Rath, a senior adviser to the Kasich campaign, said the governor’s aim is to be “the story” coming out of the New Hampshire primary on 9 February. A strong finish in New Hampshire could make Kasich a clear establishment favorite, Rath said, and help him compete for the blue and purple midwestern states, including Ohio. | Tom Rath, a senior adviser to the Kasich campaign, said the governor’s aim is to be “the story” coming out of the New Hampshire primary on 9 February. A strong finish in New Hampshire could make Kasich a clear establishment favorite, Rath said, and help him compete for the blue and purple midwestern states, including Ohio. |
| But if Kasich does place favorably in New Hampshire, he still faces a long road ahead to the nomination. He’ll have to clear the so-called “establishment” lane, which he currently shares uncomfortably with Rubio, Christie and Bush. It’s also a lane voters seem to be turning away from in droves, borne out by the support anti-establishment, outsider candidacy of Donald Trump. | But if Kasich does place favorably in New Hampshire, he still faces a long road ahead to the nomination. He’ll have to clear the so-called “establishment” lane, which he currently shares uncomfortably with Rubio, Christie and Bush. It’s also a lane voters seem to be turning away from in droves, borne out by the support anti-establishment, outsider candidacy of Donald Trump. |
| Stacey Gobron, one of the state’s coveted undecided Independent voters, said her husband, Bob, brought her to the event. She’s been disappointed by the Republican party’s frontrunners and was hoping to hear something different. | Stacey Gobron, one of the state’s coveted undecided Independent voters, said her husband, Bob, brought her to the event. She’s been disappointed by the Republican party’s frontrunners and was hoping to hear something different. |
| “I want low taxes like a Republican but I’m also not so [socially] conservative,” Gobron said. | “I want low taxes like a Republican but I’m also not so [socially] conservative,” Gobron said. |
| After hearing Kasich speak in Salem, Gobron said she believes she’s found a candidate to support and she’s optimistic others like her will come around as well. | After hearing Kasich speak in Salem, Gobron said she believes she’s found a candidate to support and she’s optimistic others like her will come around as well. |
| “He’s so genuine and I feel there’s an honesty about him,” Gobron said of Kasich. “He’s the opposite of Trump. I really believe people are going to get tired of the show. Eventually they will want the genuine.” | “He’s so genuine and I feel there’s an honesty about him,” Gobron said of Kasich. “He’s the opposite of Trump. I really believe people are going to get tired of the show. Eventually they will want the genuine.” |
| Related: John Kasich the underdog in Republican pack – and eyeing New Hampshire | Related: John Kasich the underdog in Republican pack – and eyeing New Hampshire |
| 3.46pm GMT | 3.46pm GMT |
| 15:46 | 15:46 |
| A lot of famous family in this election, and with the first vote on the line the candidates are bringing out whomever they can. Senator Rand Paul is trying to win some libertarian love for his dad, former congressman Ron Paul (who put in a strong Iowa showing once upon a time) … | A lot of famous family in this election, and with the first vote on the line the candidates are bringing out whomever they can. Senator Rand Paul is trying to win some libertarian love for his dad, former congressman Ron Paul (who put in a strong Iowa showing once upon a time) … |
| https://t.co/0i4ikMulAd | https://t.co/0i4ikMulAd |
| … Hillary Clinton has got her husband, a saxophonist who was big in the 90s, on the trail for her … | … Hillary Clinton has got her husband, a saxophonist who was big in the 90s, on the trail for her … |
| .@billclinton took over Hillary’s Snapchat to take you behind the scenes in Iowa. https://t.co/JMkSKnTXeR pic.twitter.com/feLI34lNcJ | .@billclinton took over Hillary’s Snapchat to take you behind the scenes in Iowa. https://t.co/JMkSKnTXeR pic.twitter.com/feLI34lNcJ |
| But John Ellis Bush is apparently reluctant to trot out his own famous family members, #41 George HW and #43 George W. Instead he’s tweeted this dog in a sweater. Maybe it’s an underdog. | But John Ellis Bush is apparently reluctant to trot out his own famous family members, #41 George HW and #43 George W. Instead he’s tweeted this dog in a sweater. Maybe it’s an underdog. |
| 1 more day until the Iowa Caucus and we have all hands — and paws — on deck. pic.twitter.com/aCsSUdcisG | 1 more day until the Iowa Caucus and we have all hands — and paws — on deck. pic.twitter.com/aCsSUdcisG |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.04pm GMT | at 6.04pm GMT |
| 3.33pm GMT | 3.33pm GMT |
| 15:33 | 15:33 |
| Martin O’Malley, the third Democratic candidate clinging to his campaign like McNulty clung to the bottle, Bubbles to sobriety and Carcetti to the war on drugs, took out a $500,000 loan to keep his campaign afloat, FEC forms show. | Martin O’Malley, the third Democratic candidate clinging to his campaign like McNulty clung to the bottle, Bubbles to sobriety and Carcetti to the war on drugs, took out a $500,000 loan to keep his campaign afloat, FEC forms show. |
| For comparison, his opponent Bernie Sanders raised $20m in January alone, the campaign announced yesterday. Contributions averaged $27. | For comparison, his opponent Bernie Sanders raised $20m in January alone, the campaign announced yesterday. Contributions averaged $27. |
| Staffers are reportedly working without pay, but O’Malley’s telling voters to “hold strong”. He’s consistently polled around 3% in Iowa, where the caucus system requires Democrats manage at last 15% or take no delegates at all in respective precincts. Mashable’s Juana Summers is with the former Baltimore mayor and Maryland governor on the trail. | Staffers are reportedly working without pay, but O’Malley’s telling voters to “hold strong”. He’s consistently polled around 3% in Iowa, where the caucus system requires Democrats manage at last 15% or take no delegates at all in respective precincts. Mashable’s Juana Summers is with the former Baltimore mayor and Maryland governor on the trail. |
| O'Malley in Des Moines pic.twitter.com/EGajSJHHxW | O'Malley in Des Moines pic.twitter.com/EGajSJHHxW |
| NB: O’Malley was an inspiration for The Wire, is what’s going on with the links and allusions. | NB: O’Malley was an inspiration for The Wire, is what’s going on with the links and allusions. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.47pm GMT | at 4.47pm GMT |
| 3.14pm GMT | 3.14pm GMT |
| 15:14 | 15:14 |
| Well ya know what they say up in my parts, reality TV loves company even though the liberal media’s heads are spinning with the rock’n’rollers for Donald Trump, who’s gonna get that capitulator-in-chief out of the White House, and – yes, Sarah Palin is back on TV. (Nobody has ever said this though.) | Well ya know what they say up in my parts, reality TV loves company even though the liberal media’s heads are spinning with the rock’n’rollers for Donald Trump, who’s gonna get that capitulator-in-chief out of the White House, and – yes, Sarah Palin is back on TV. (Nobody has ever said this though.) |
| Palin appeared on NBC’s Today Show on Monday to share her thoughts about the primary election, even though the former governor of Alaska has never campaigned in the Iowa caucuses. John McCain chose her as his running-mate months after the 2008 caucuses, in which he placed fourth, behind Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and the actor Fred Thompson. | Palin appeared on NBC’s Today Show on Monday to share her thoughts about the primary election, even though the former governor of Alaska has never campaigned in the Iowa caucuses. John McCain chose her as his running-mate months after the 2008 caucuses, in which he placed fourth, behind Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and the actor Fred Thompson. |
| But Palin has endorsed Trump for the Republican nomination, and was happy to talk about it. She said that Trump’s less-than-devout religiosity – on Sunday he pulled out cash during communion, mistaking it for an offering – should not turn her evangelical fans away from the billionaire. | But Palin has endorsed Trump for the Republican nomination, and was happy to talk about it. She said that Trump’s less-than-devout religiosity – on Sunday he pulled out cash during communion, mistaking it for an offering – should not turn her evangelical fans away from the billionaire. |
| “I hope voters aren’t trying to find the most Christian-y, godliest candidate out there,” she said, “because, you know, who are we to judge one another’s level of faith our Christian quotient, if you will.” | “I hope voters aren’t trying to find the most Christian-y, godliest candidate out there,” she said, “because, you know, who are we to judge one another’s level of faith our Christian quotient, if you will.” |
| “Hopefully people are looking for he who has that record of success that proves he’s going to be able to get that job done for us.” | “Hopefully people are looking for he who has that record of success that proves he’s going to be able to get that job done for us.” |
| Nor should Trump’s history of supporting Democrats scare away voters, she said. “You compare him to someone like Ronald Reagan, who too at one point was at registered Democrat. And then he saw the light.” | Nor should Trump’s history of supporting Democrats scare away voters, she said. “You compare him to someone like Ronald Reagan, who too at one point was at registered Democrat. And then he saw the light.” |
| She said she was glad Trump understands that “free markets and capitalism and restoration of our freedom is the way for America to be restored. We should celebrate that he has come over on the right side.” | She said she was glad Trump understands that “free markets and capitalism and restoration of our freedom is the way for America to be restored. We should celebrate that he has come over on the right side.” |
| “I believe that he will win win Iowa,” she said. “Iowa voters too are ready for restoration of constitutional government again, and Donald Trump is the one who can do this. | “I believe that he will win win Iowa,” she said. “Iowa voters too are ready for restoration of constitutional government again, and Donald Trump is the one who can do this. |
| That said, she added that she’s a fan of Ted Cruz too. “Yeah, tonight, whatever the outcome, I think the Republican party again is in a fortunate problem of having good candidates at the top.” | That said, she added that she’s a fan of Ted Cruz too. “Yeah, tonight, whatever the outcome, I think the Republican party again is in a fortunate problem of having good candidates at the top.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.00pm GMT | at 5.00pm GMT |
| 2.50pm GMT | 2.50pm GMT |
| 14:50 | 14:50 |
| Sabrina Siddiqui | Sabrina Siddiqui |
| On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, eight years after the crushing disappointment of her defeat by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton made her final pitch to a gymnasium packed with roughly 2,600 people. | On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, eight years after the crushing disappointment of her defeat by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton made her final pitch to a gymnasium packed with roughly 2,600 people. |
| “I’m a better candidate,” she said. “And, thanks to you, I’ll be a better president.” | “I’m a better candidate,” she said. “And, thanks to you, I’ll be a better president.” |
| The crowd was not just one of the largest of her campaign. It also rivaled in its enthusiasm scenes that have become synonymous with rallies held by her opponent, Bernie Sanders. | The crowd was not just one of the largest of her campaign. It also rivaled in its enthusiasm scenes that have become synonymous with rallies held by her opponent, Bernie Sanders. |
| Accompanied by her husband Bill and daughter Chelsea, the former secretary of state fashioned herself as a pragmatic progressive with a history of accomplishment to match her soaring rhetoric. | Accompanied by her husband Bill and daughter Chelsea, the former secretary of state fashioned herself as a pragmatic progressive with a history of accomplishment to match her soaring rhetoric. |
| The same night in Des Moines, around 1,700 people attended Sanders’ Sunday night rally. A crowd as large as 5,000 saw him joined by indie band Vampire Weekend at the University of Iowa on Saturday. | The same night in Des Moines, around 1,700 people attended Sanders’ Sunday night rally. A crowd as large as 5,000 saw him joined by indie band Vampire Weekend at the University of Iowa on Saturday. |
| “She’s a world-class change-maker,” her husband said, adding that a president must be find common ground with rivals, and without sacrificing principles. “Of all of the people I have ever worked with in my public life, Hillary is the best at that.” | “She’s a world-class change-maker,” her husband said, adding that a president must be find common ground with rivals, and without sacrificing principles. “Of all of the people I have ever worked with in my public life, Hillary is the best at that.” |
| Much of Clinton’s closing argument in Iowa and New Hampshire has centered around the idea that the policies put forward by Sanders, a self-identified democratic socialist, might sound appealing but are ultimately impractical. | Much of Clinton’s closing argument in Iowa and New Hampshire has centered around the idea that the policies put forward by Sanders, a self-identified democratic socialist, might sound appealing but are ultimately impractical. |
| “Senator Sanders wants to start over – to plunge us into a contentious national debate,” Clinton said. “Stick with the Affordable Care Act, stick with making it better,.” | “Senator Sanders wants to start over – to plunge us into a contentious national debate,” Clinton said. “Stick with the Affordable Care Act, stick with making it better,.” |
| Clinton also took a veiled shot at Sanders by vowing not to raise taxes on the middle class, following an acknowledgement by the senator’s campaign that his healthcare plan would require a tax hike on most Americans – in return, they say, for larger savings on insurance costs. | Clinton also took a veiled shot at Sanders by vowing not to raise taxes on the middle class, following an acknowledgement by the senator’s campaign that his healthcare plan would require a tax hike on most Americans – in return, they say, for larger savings on insurance costs. |
| “I will not raise middle class taxes – absolutely off the table. I will follow the money to the top,” Clinton said. | “I will not raise middle class taxes – absolutely off the table. I will follow the money to the top,” Clinton said. |
| Related: Hillary Clinton's final pitch to Iowans: thanks to you, I'm a better candidate | Related: Hillary Clinton's final pitch to Iowans: thanks to you, I'm a better candidate |
| 2.40pm GMT | 2.40pm GMT |
| 14:40 | 14:40 |
| DC bureau chief Dan Roberts, reporting from Iowa with colleagues, the campaigns and maybe every political journalist in the continental US. | DC bureau chief Dan Roberts, reporting from Iowa with colleagues, the campaigns and maybe every political journalist in the continental US. |
| Iowa, where 200,000 people get to sink or launch the career of the most powerful elected official on earth. pic.twitter.com/0JZb9kESCj | Iowa, where 200,000 people get to sink or launch the career of the most powerful elected official on earth. pic.twitter.com/0JZb9kESCj |
| When you can't move in your local coffee shop for breakfast TV political shows. Welcome to Des Moines on caucus day. pic.twitter.com/LJu2oUBKCx | When you can't move in your local coffee shop for breakfast TV political shows. Welcome to Des Moines on caucus day. pic.twitter.com/LJu2oUBKCx |
| “When you can’t move in your local coffee shop because they are filming breakfast TV political shows. Des Moines on caucus day.” | “When you can’t move in your local coffee shop because they are filming breakfast TV political shows. Des Moines on caucus day.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.42pm GMT | at 2.42pm GMT |
| 2.28pm GMT | 2.28pm GMT |
| 14:28 | 14:28 |
| Four years ago a one-term senator so drew the crowds of Iowa that he had to deliver two speeches at one restaurant, one using a bullhorn. | Four years ago a one-term senator so drew the crowds of Iowa that he had to deliver two speeches at one restaurant, one using a bullhorn. |
| But although Rick Santorum won Iowa on the strength of his evangelical credentials, he failed to make a mark on the rest of the 2012 primary, which Mitt Romney survived to win the nomination. Which raises a question: is Iowa any good at predicting a winner? | But although Rick Santorum won Iowa on the strength of his evangelical credentials, he failed to make a mark on the rest of the 2012 primary, which Mitt Romney survived to win the nomination. Which raises a question: is Iowa any good at predicting a winner? |
| As usual, it depends. In modern elections, the conventional wisdom is that candidate’s need a top-three finish to have a chance – though in 2008, for instance, John McCain placed fourth. Iowa Democrats have had more success picking the eventual nominee than their Republican counterparts. But it is just the first state of many that will eventually decide who runs in the general election. | As usual, it depends. In modern elections, the conventional wisdom is that candidate’s need a top-three finish to have a chance – though in 2008, for instance, John McCain placed fourth. Iowa Democrats have had more success picking the eventual nominee than their Republican counterparts. But it is just the first state of many that will eventually decide who runs in the general election. |
| And if you’d like to know more about the sad travails of Rick Santorum, my colleague Ben Jacobs was with the former senator at a Pizza Ranch yesterday – that same site of Santorum’s glory four years ago. Santorum was declared an “honorary employee”. | And if you’d like to know more about the sad travails of Rick Santorum, my colleague Ben Jacobs was with the former senator at a Pizza Ranch yesterday – that same site of Santorum’s glory four years ago. Santorum was declared an “honorary employee”. |
| Related: Rick Santorum: an Iowa requiem for the candidate holding a tiny slice of support | Related: Rick Santorum: an Iowa requiem for the candidate holding a tiny slice of support |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.59pm GMT | at 2.59pm GMT |
| 2.02pm GMT | 2.02pm GMT |
| 14:02 | 14:02 |
| What are caucuses? | What are caucuses? |
| Better to ask and learn than live in ignorance. The Iowa caucuses are the first decision of the presidential election, and a means for the rural state to influence a national election that is often dominated by the dense populations of big states like California and Florida. And sometimes there are cookies. | Better to ask and learn than live in ignorance. The Iowa caucuses are the first decision of the presidential election, and a means for the rural state to influence a national election that is often dominated by the dense populations of big states like California and Florida. And sometimes there are cookies. |
| They caucuses start at 7pm local time, though campaigns recommend Iowans get there early – once you’re late you’re out. | They caucuses start at 7pm local time, though campaigns recommend Iowans get there early – once you’re late you’re out. |
| How do they work? | How do they work? |
| Video editor Valerie Lapinski explains. | Video editor Valerie Lapinski explains. |
| Some other notes: | Some other notes: |
| Related: How the Iowa caucuses work: a confusing election process explained | Related: How the Iowa caucuses work: a confusing election process explained |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.06pm GMT | at 2.06pm GMT |
| 1.31pm GMT | 1.31pm GMT |
| 13:31 | 13:31 |
| One last one last poll, this one from Quinnipiac University and with an emphasis on the giant question that looms over even the very large head and hair of Donald Trump: who will actually come out to caucus? | One last one last poll, this one from Quinnipiac University and with an emphasis on the giant question that looms over even the very large head and hair of Donald Trump: who will actually come out to caucus? |
| For first-time likely caucus goers, Trump has a steady lead over Texas senator Ted Cruz, 31% to 24%. Florida senator Marco Rubio has gained, with 17%, and Ben Carson is hovering only a little above rest of the pack at 8%. No one else has more than 4%. | For first-time likely caucus goers, Trump has a steady lead over Texas senator Ted Cruz, 31% to 24%. Florida senator Marco Rubio has gained, with 17%, and Ben Carson is hovering only a little above rest of the pack at 8%. No one else has more than 4%. |
| But for Republicans who’ve caucused before, the race is far closer. Among these caucusers, Cruz leads Trump 26% to 25%. Rubio’s got 20%. | But for Republicans who’ve caucused before, the race is far closer. Among these caucusers, Cruz leads Trump 26% to 25%. Rubio’s got 20%. |
| Twenty-eight percent of the people who named a candidate said they might still change their mind, and 3% said they were undecided. | Twenty-eight percent of the people who named a candidate said they might still change their mind, and 3% said they were undecided. |
| The Democratic race has a similar dynamic. Bernie Sanders leads Clinton 62% to 35% with would be first-time caucusers. Clinton has the edge 52-41% with Iowans who’ve shown up to caucuses before. There’s less room to maneuver, though: only 2% say they’re undecided, and only 14% of those who named a candidate say they might change their mind. Martin O’Malley’s supporters amount to 3% of the people surveyed, in line with other polls. | The Democratic race has a similar dynamic. Bernie Sanders leads Clinton 62% to 35% with would be first-time caucusers. Clinton has the edge 52-41% with Iowans who’ve shown up to caucuses before. There’s less room to maneuver, though: only 2% say they’re undecided, and only 14% of those who named a candidate say they might change their mind. Martin O’Malley’s supporters amount to 3% of the people surveyed, in line with other polls. |
| All of this means high turnout should be good for Trump and Sanders, low turnout good for Cruz and Clinton – and that we shouldn’t be surprised to see campaigns doing everything they can to get people voting or staying home, as it suits their candidates’ interests. | All of this means high turnout should be good for Trump and Sanders, low turnout good for Cruz and Clinton – and that we shouldn’t be surprised to see campaigns doing everything they can to get people voting or staying home, as it suits their candidates’ interests. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.53pm GMT | at 1.53pm GMT |
| 1.07pm GMT | 1.07pm GMT |
| 13:07 | 13:07 |
| Iowa caucus day begins | Iowa caucus day begins |
| Hello and welcome to our coverage of the Iowa caucuses – the long awaited first decision day of the 2016 primary elections. | Hello and welcome to our coverage of the Iowa caucuses – the long awaited first decision day of the 2016 primary elections. |
| Astounding his party, pundits, pollsters and plenty of Americans, billionaire Donald Trump has sailed into caucus day with a lead for the Republican nomination in one of Iowa’s most trusted polls. Trump lead Texas senator Ted Cruz by five points in the Des Moines register poll, with Florida senator Marco Rubio a little further back. Trump and Cruz have exasperated Republican leaders and moderates, but like populists and a few presidents past they look poised to thrive in the Hawkeye state. | Astounding his party, pundits, pollsters and plenty of Americans, billionaire Donald Trump has sailed into caucus day with a lead for the Republican nomination in one of Iowa’s most trusted polls. Trump lead Texas senator Ted Cruz by five points in the Des Moines register poll, with Florida senator Marco Rubio a little further back. Trump and Cruz have exasperated Republican leaders and moderates, but like populists and a few presidents past they look poised to thrive in the Hawkeye state. |
| Democratic leader Hillary Clinton faces the possibility of déja vù: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders trailed her by only three points in the final Iowa poll, within the margin of error and with the enthusiasm of thousands at his back. Sanders is hoping for an upset to jump start his political revolution, and Clinton is hoping to secure her place as the party’s pragmatist-in-chief. | Democratic leader Hillary Clinton faces the possibility of déja vù: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders trailed her by only three points in the final Iowa poll, within the margin of error and with the enthusiasm of thousands at his back. Sanders is hoping for an upset to jump start his political revolution, and Clinton is hoping to secure her place as the party’s pragmatist-in-chief. |
| But if the 2016 election has proven anything before its first decision, it’s that Americans have a huge appetite for chaos in their democracy. Republicans Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are all still hoping – maybe a little desperately – for surprise strength in Iowa, as are former Iowa winners Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. | But if the 2016 election has proven anything before its first decision, it’s that Americans have a huge appetite for chaos in their democracy. Republicans Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are all still hoping – maybe a little desperately – for surprise strength in Iowa, as are former Iowa winners Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. |
| Former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, or at least his support, remains a key factor that could turn the close Democratic race. | Former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, or at least his support, remains a key factor that could turn the close Democratic race. |
| Caucuses begin in Iowa at 7pm local time (8pm Eastern, 1am GMT) and we can expect results around 11pm local (midnight ET, 5am GMT). | Caucuses begin in Iowa at 7pm local time (8pm Eastern, 1am GMT) and we can expect results around 11pm local (midnight ET, 5am GMT). |
| You may notice some people are feeling excited. | You may notice some people are feeling excited. |
| It all begins today - WE WILL FINALLY TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! | It all begins today - WE WILL FINALLY TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! |
| In Iowa for the Guardian US are head of news David Taylor, DC bureau chief Dan Roberts, west coast bureau chief Paul Lewis, political reporters Ben Jacobs and Sabrina Siddiqui and editor-at-large Gary Younge. National reporter Lauren Gambino and columnist Richard Wolffe are in New Hampshire, the next primary state – and a battleground where Sanders leads Clinton by 20 points and Rubio is gaining strength against Trump. | In Iowa for the Guardian US are head of news David Taylor, DC bureau chief Dan Roberts, west coast bureau chief Paul Lewis, political reporters Ben Jacobs and Sabrina Siddiqui and editor-at-large Gary Younge. National reporter Lauren Gambino and columnist Richard Wolffe are in New Hampshire, the next primary state – and a battleground where Sanders leads Clinton by 20 points and Rubio is gaining strength against Trump. |
| So we’ll bring you all the news and throw in some glories of American democracy too. There’s a patriotic tractor with a hologram eagle. Pheasant hunting with Trump sons. Bernie Sanders ice cream. Republican sea ice sophistry. Derelict campaign bus protest art projects. Five thousand people singing folk songs. Three generations of Clinton. | So we’ll bring you all the news and throw in some glories of American democracy too. There’s a patriotic tractor with a hologram eagle. Pheasant hunting with Trump sons. Bernie Sanders ice cream. Republican sea ice sophistry. Derelict campaign bus protest art projects. Five thousand people singing folk songs. Three generations of Clinton. |
| Election 2016 starts today. | Election 2016 starts today. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.42pm GMT | at 3.42pm GMT |