This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/feb/01/us-election-iowa-caucuses-campaign-live-trump-clinton-sanders-cruz-rubio
The article has changed 22 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 5 | Version 6 |
|---|---|
| Election live: Trump and Clinton lead on day of Iowa caucuses | Election live: Trump and Clinton lead on day of Iowa caucuses |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 4.33pm GMT | |
| 16:33 | |
| Ben Jacobs | |
| Six Republican candidates will sit down to take an interview with one man on Monday: Britain-born radio host Simon Conway, an unlikely icon of Iowa conservatives and “one of the proudest citizens of the United States, ever”. | |
| Conway’s patriotic, country musi opening isn’t unusual for any rightwing talk show host – particularly one who, in Conway’s case, will on Monday interview six Republican candidates on the day of the caucuses. | |
| What is unusual is that when Conway takes the microphone, he speaks in an estuary inflected English accent. | |
| Although Conway takes pains to “point out I am American – born British, naturalized American now”, the accent does make him a somewhat unusual kingmaker. Tea Party radio hosts in early voting states are not often born in London. | |
| After a career in journalism and corporate communications in the UK, Conway moved to Orlando, Florida in 2001. He entered the real estate business, which he found very competitive. | |
| “There are thousands of people selling real estate in Orlando, literally,” he told the Guardian. | |
| So he tried to distinguish himself by buying time on the radio. He got himself a one-hour weekend show and fell in love with the medium. | |
| “From the very first moment I was on the air,” he said, “I did not talk about real estate. It was like an epiphany. I had come home.” | |
| Conway fell into a career as a fill-in talk show host, travelling across the US to what he described as “major, major stations”. In 2011, he took a job at WHO. | |
| Speaking to the Guardian, as he enthused about his Iowa workplace, one the most recognized and honored radio stations in the US and a long-time employer of Ronald Reagan, he said: “If you’re serious about talk radio, this isn’t a job you turn down.” | |
| “I am an equal-opportunity hater. I treat people the same whether I agree with them or [they] don’t agree with me. I will always challenge their positions. | |
| “There are [as many] Republicans who don’t want to face those questions as there are Democrats. The likes of [Ohio governor] John Kasich haven’t been in my studio because he knows it isn’t going to end well.” | |
| Conway worries, meanwhile, that the US is becoming like Great Britain. “People rely on government too much in the UK,” he said. “‘Government is the solution. Government will take care of me.’” | |
| On Monday, just before Iowans head to the caucuses, he will share such warnings again, not just with a listening audience of tens of thousands, but potentially the next president as well. | |
| Related: Iowa radio's 'proudest American citizen' is a rightwing kingmaker – and British | |
| 4.14pm GMT | |
| 16:14 | |
| Texas senator Ted Cruz has had a hard weekend. He’s locked in a close race for Iowa’s most conservative voters with Donald Trump, who has mocked and derided Cruz as a “nasty guy” and “anchor baby in Canada” for weeks. | |
| Cruz’s favorable ratings have dropped … even with his family. Buzzfeed’s Rachel Zarrell has gif’d Sunday’s painful moment. | |
| when even your daughter wouldn't vote for you pic.twitter.com/nxC2lhLNZc | |
| 3.59pm GMT | 3.59pm GMT |
| 15:59 | 15:59 |
| Lauren Gambino | Lauren Gambino |
| New Hampshire was supposed to be where Jeb Bush had his comeback. Or where Chris Christie had his breakout moment. Or where Marco Rubio solidified his momentum. | New Hampshire was supposed to be where Jeb Bush had his comeback. Or where Chris Christie had his breakout moment. Or where Marco Rubio solidified his momentum. |
| In the last few days Ohio governor John Kasich has had New Hampshire all to himself while the other Republicans blanket Iowa in search of last-minute votes. On Sunday Kasich held his 85th and 86th town hall style events in the state. | In the last few days Ohio governor John Kasich has had New Hampshire all to himself while the other Republicans blanket Iowa in search of last-minute votes. On Sunday Kasich held his 85th and 86th town hall style events in the state. |
| “I’m a lot more interested in talking about what I’m for than the people who are in the primary up here in New Hampshire,” Kasich told to the dozens of voters who came out on a sunny winter’s day in Salem. “ I want to raise the bar. I want us to regain hope in this country. We can make this country work again.” The audience broke into applause. | “I’m a lot more interested in talking about what I’m for than the people who are in the primary up here in New Hampshire,” Kasich told to the dozens of voters who came out on a sunny winter’s day in Salem. “ I want to raise the bar. I want us to regain hope in this country. We can make this country work again.” The audience broke into applause. |
| While his opponents tap into voters frustration, preaching doom and gloom, Kasich is wooing moderate Republicans and Independent voters at schools, churches, gymnasiums and community centers across the state with a decidedly sunny vision for the country. And it seems to be working. | While his opponents tap into voters frustration, preaching doom and gloom, Kasich is wooing moderate Republicans and Independent voters at schools, churches, gymnasiums and community centers across the state with a decidedly sunny vision for the country. And it seems to be working. |
| A series of recent state polls show Kasich’s steady rise – and complicated path forward – placing him in a tie for second place with three different candidates – Bush, Rubio and Ted Cruz. A RealClearPolitics.com average of state polls confirms his second place standing there behind longtime Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. | A series of recent state polls show Kasich’s steady rise – and complicated path forward – placing him in a tie for second place with three different candidates – Bush, Rubio and Ted Cruz. A RealClearPolitics.com average of state polls confirms his second place standing there behind longtime Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. |
| In Bow on Sunday night, with a national debt clock ticking behind him, Kasich himself as a conservative, pointing to his record on fiscal issues in Congress and as governor. In a race defined so far by bombast and dire visions of America, Kasich answered voters with careful but decidedly, even confidently, moderate answers. | In Bow on Sunday night, with a national debt clock ticking behind him, Kasich himself as a conservative, pointing to his record on fiscal issues in Congress and as governor. In a race defined so far by bombast and dire visions of America, Kasich answered voters with careful but decidedly, even confidently, moderate answers. |
| “If you’re in the cupcake business and somebody comes in and wants cupcakes, sell them cupcakes, that’s my feeling about that.“I won’t have an argument about who you’re selling the cupcake to, I just don’t agree with that,” Kasich said, told a voter who was concerned about the erosion of religious liberties. | “If you’re in the cupcake business and somebody comes in and wants cupcakes, sell them cupcakes, that’s my feeling about that.“I won’t have an argument about who you’re selling the cupcake to, I just don’t agree with that,” Kasich said, told a voter who was concerned about the erosion of religious liberties. |
| When a first-time voter asked him why Republicans shy away from the topic of climate change, Kasich told him: “Do I believe that human beings affect the climate? I do,” Kasich told the young voter on Sunday afternoon. “But we don’t quite know how much. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t things we need to do.” | When a first-time voter asked him why Republicans shy away from the topic of climate change, Kasich told him: “Do I believe that human beings affect the climate? I do,” Kasich told the young voter on Sunday afternoon. “But we don’t quite know how much. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t things we need to do.” |
| Kasich has mostly forsaken the race in Iowa, placing his best hopes in New Hampshire where he has built momentum over the past few months that he hopes will power his campaign through the next few primaries and on to Super Tuesday and beyond. | Kasich has mostly forsaken the race in Iowa, placing his best hopes in New Hampshire where he has built momentum over the past few months that he hopes will power his campaign through the next few primaries and on to Super Tuesday and beyond. |
| Tom Rath, a senior adviser to the Kasich campaign, said the governor’s aim is to be “the story” coming out of the New Hampshire primary on 9 February. A strong finish in New Hampshire could make Kasich a clear establishment favorite, Rath said, and help him compete for the blue and purple midwestern states, including Ohio. | Tom Rath, a senior adviser to the Kasich campaign, said the governor’s aim is to be “the story” coming out of the New Hampshire primary on 9 February. A strong finish in New Hampshire could make Kasich a clear establishment favorite, Rath said, and help him compete for the blue and purple midwestern states, including Ohio. |
| But if Kasich does place favorably in New Hampshire, he still faces a long road ahead to the nomination. He’ll have to clear the so-called “establishment” lane, which he currently shares uncomfortably with Rubio, Christie and Bush. It’s also a lane voters seem to be turning away from in droves, borne out by the support anti-establishment, outsider candidacy of Donald Trump. | But if Kasich does place favorably in New Hampshire, he still faces a long road ahead to the nomination. He’ll have to clear the so-called “establishment” lane, which he currently shares uncomfortably with Rubio, Christie and Bush. It’s also a lane voters seem to be turning away from in droves, borne out by the support anti-establishment, outsider candidacy of Donald Trump. |
| Stacey Gobron, one of the state’s coveted undecided Independent voters, said her husband, Bob, brought her to the event. She’s been disappointed by the Republican party’s frontrunners and was hoping to hear something different. | Stacey Gobron, one of the state’s coveted undecided Independent voters, said her husband, Bob, brought her to the event. She’s been disappointed by the Republican party’s frontrunners and was hoping to hear something different. |
| “I want low taxes like a Republican but I’m also not so [socially] conservative,” Gobron said. | “I want low taxes like a Republican but I’m also not so [socially] conservative,” Gobron said. |
| After hearing Kasich speak in Salem, Gobron said she believes she’s found a candidate to support and she’s optimistic others like her will come around as well. | After hearing Kasich speak in Salem, Gobron said she believes she’s found a candidate to support and she’s optimistic others like her will come around as well. |
| “He’s so genuine and I feel there’s an honesty about him,” Gobron said of Kasich. “He’s the opposite of Trump. I really believe people are going to get tired of the show. Eventually they will want the genuine.” | “He’s so genuine and I feel there’s an honesty about him,” Gobron said of Kasich. “He’s the opposite of Trump. I really believe people are going to get tired of the show. Eventually they will want the genuine.” |
| Related: John Kasich the underdog in Republican pack – and eyeing New Hampshire | Related: John Kasich the underdog in Republican pack – and eyeing New Hampshire |
| 3.46pm GMT | 3.46pm GMT |
| 15:46 | 15:46 |
| A lot of famous family in this election, and with the first vote on the line the candidates are bringing out whomever they can. Senator Rand Paul is trying to win some libertarian love for his dad, former congressman Ron Paul (who put in a strong Iowa showing once upon a time) … | A lot of famous family in this election, and with the first vote on the line the candidates are bringing out whomever they can. Senator Rand Paul is trying to win some libertarian love for his dad, former congressman Ron Paul (who put in a strong Iowa showing once upon a time) … |
| https://t.co/0i4ikMulAd | https://t.co/0i4ikMulAd |
| … Hillary Clinton has got her husband, a saxophonist who was big in the 90s, on the trail for her … | … Hillary Clinton has got her husband, a saxophonist who was big in the 90s, on the trail for her … |
| .@billclinton took over Hillary’s Snapchat to take you behind the scenes in Iowa. https://t.co/JMkSKnTXeR pic.twitter.com/feLI34lNcJ | .@billclinton took over Hillary’s Snapchat to take you behind the scenes in Iowa. https://t.co/JMkSKnTXeR pic.twitter.com/feLI34lNcJ |
| But John Ellis Bush is apparently reluctant to trot out his own famous family members, #41 George HW and #43 George W. Instead he’s tweeted this dog in a sweater. | But John Ellis Bush is apparently reluctant to trot out his own famous family members, #41 George HW and #43 George W. Instead he’s tweeted this dog in a sweater. |
| 1 more day until the Iowa Caucus and we have all hands — and paws — on deck. pic.twitter.com/aCsSUdcisG | 1 more day until the Iowa Caucus and we have all hands — and paws — on deck. pic.twitter.com/aCsSUdcisG |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.49pm GMT | at 3.49pm GMT |
| 3.33pm GMT | 3.33pm GMT |
| 15:33 | 15:33 |
| Martin O’Malley, the third Democratic candidate clinging to his campaign like McNulty clung to the bottle, Bubbles to sobriety and Carcetti to the war on drugs, took out a $500,000 loan to keep his campaign afloat, FEC forms show. | Martin O’Malley, the third Democratic candidate clinging to his campaign like McNulty clung to the bottle, Bubbles to sobriety and Carcetti to the war on drugs, took out a $500,000 loan to keep his campaign afloat, FEC forms show. |
| For comparison, his opponent Bernie Sanders raised $20m in January alone, the campaign announced yesterday. Contributions averaged $27. | |
| Staffers are reportedly working without pay, but O’Malley’s telling voters to “hold strong”. He’s consistently polled around 3% in Iowa, where the caucus system requires Democrats manage at last 15% or take no delegates at all in respective precincts. Mashable’s Juana Summers is with the former Baltimore mayor and Maryland governor on the trail. | Staffers are reportedly working without pay, but O’Malley’s telling voters to “hold strong”. He’s consistently polled around 3% in Iowa, where the caucus system requires Democrats manage at last 15% or take no delegates at all in respective precincts. Mashable’s Juana Summers is with the former Baltimore mayor and Maryland governor on the trail. |
| O'Malley in Des Moines pic.twitter.com/EGajSJHHxW | O'Malley in Des Moines pic.twitter.com/EGajSJHHxW |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.11pm GMT | |
| 3.14pm GMT | 3.14pm GMT |
| 15:14 | 15:14 |
| Well ya know what they say up in my parts, reality TV loves company even though the liberal media’s heads are spinning with the rock’n’rollers for Donald Trump, who’s gonna get that capitulator-in-chief out of the White House, and – yes, Sarah Palin is back on TV. (Nobody has ever said this though.) | Well ya know what they say up in my parts, reality TV loves company even though the liberal media’s heads are spinning with the rock’n’rollers for Donald Trump, who’s gonna get that capitulator-in-chief out of the White House, and – yes, Sarah Palin is back on TV. (Nobody has ever said this though.) |
| Palin appeared on NBC’s Today Show on Monday to share her thoughts about the primary election, even though the former governor of Alaska has never campaigned in the Iowa caucuses. John McCain chose her as his running-mate months after the 2008 caucuses, in which he placed fourth, behind Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and the actor Fred Thompson. | Palin appeared on NBC’s Today Show on Monday to share her thoughts about the primary election, even though the former governor of Alaska has never campaigned in the Iowa caucuses. John McCain chose her as his running-mate months after the 2008 caucuses, in which he placed fourth, behind Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and the actor Fred Thompson. |
| But Palin has endorsed Trump for the Republican nomination, and was happy to talk about it. She said that Trump’s less-than-devout religiosity – on Sunday he tried to put some dollars on a communion plate, mistaking it for an offering – should not turn her evangelical fans away from the billionaire. | But Palin has endorsed Trump for the Republican nomination, and was happy to talk about it. She said that Trump’s less-than-devout religiosity – on Sunday he tried to put some dollars on a communion plate, mistaking it for an offering – should not turn her evangelical fans away from the billionaire. |
| “I hope voters aren’t trying to find the most Christian-y, godliest candidate out there,” she said, “because, you know, who are we to judge one another’s level of faith our Christian quotient, if you will.” | “I hope voters aren’t trying to find the most Christian-y, godliest candidate out there,” she said, “because, you know, who are we to judge one another’s level of faith our Christian quotient, if you will.” |
| “Hopefully people are looking for he who has that record of success that proves he’s going to be able to get that job done for us.” | “Hopefully people are looking for he who has that record of success that proves he’s going to be able to get that job done for us.” |
| Nor should Trump’s history of supporting Democrats scare away voters, she said. “You compare him to someone like Ronald Reagan, who too at one point was at registered Democrat. And then he saw the light.” | Nor should Trump’s history of supporting Democrats scare away voters, she said. “You compare him to someone like Ronald Reagan, who too at one point was at registered Democrat. And then he saw the light.” |
| She said she was glad Trump understands that “free markets and capitalism and restoration of our freedom is the way for America to be restored. We should celebrate that he has come over on the right side.” | She said she was glad Trump understands that “free markets and capitalism and restoration of our freedom is the way for America to be restored. We should celebrate that he has come over on the right side.” |
| “I believe that he will win win Iowa,” she said. “Iowa voters too are ready for restoration of constitutional government again, and Donald Trump is the one who can do this. | “I believe that he will win win Iowa,” she said. “Iowa voters too are ready for restoration of constitutional government again, and Donald Trump is the one who can do this. |
| That said, she added that she’s a fan of Ted Cruz too. “Yeah, tonight, whatever the outcome, I think the Republican party again is in a fortunate problem of having good candidates at the top.” | That said, she added that she’s a fan of Ted Cruz too. “Yeah, tonight, whatever the outcome, I think the Republican party again is in a fortunate problem of having good candidates at the top.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.16pm GMT | at 3.16pm GMT |
| 2.50pm GMT | 2.50pm GMT |
| 14:50 | 14:50 |
| Sabrina Siddiqui | Sabrina Siddiqui |
| On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, eight years after the crushing disappointment of her defeat by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton made her final pitch to a gymnasium packed with roughly 2,600 people. | On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, eight years after the crushing disappointment of her defeat by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton made her final pitch to a gymnasium packed with roughly 2,600 people. |
| “I’m a better candidate,” she said. “And, thanks to you, I’ll be a better president.” | “I’m a better candidate,” she said. “And, thanks to you, I’ll be a better president.” |
| The crowd was not just one of the largest of her campaign. It also rivaled in its enthusiasm scenes that have become synonymous with rallies held by her opponent, Bernie Sanders. | The crowd was not just one of the largest of her campaign. It also rivaled in its enthusiasm scenes that have become synonymous with rallies held by her opponent, Bernie Sanders. |
| Accompanied by her husband Bill and daughter Chelsea, the former secretary of state fashioned herself as a pragmatic progressive with a history of accomplishment to match her soaring rhetoric. | Accompanied by her husband Bill and daughter Chelsea, the former secretary of state fashioned herself as a pragmatic progressive with a history of accomplishment to match her soaring rhetoric. |
| The same night in Des Moines, around 1,700 people attended Sanders’ Sunday night rally. A crowd as large as 5,000 saw him joined by indie band Vampire Weekend at the University of Iowa on Saturday. | The same night in Des Moines, around 1,700 people attended Sanders’ Sunday night rally. A crowd as large as 5,000 saw him joined by indie band Vampire Weekend at the University of Iowa on Saturday. |
| “She’s a world-class change-maker,” her husband said, adding that a president must be find common ground with rivals, and without sacrificing principles. “Of all of the people I have ever worked with in my public life, Hillary is the best at that.” | “She’s a world-class change-maker,” her husband said, adding that a president must be find common ground with rivals, and without sacrificing principles. “Of all of the people I have ever worked with in my public life, Hillary is the best at that.” |
| Much of Clinton’s closing argument in Iowa and New Hampshire has centered around the idea that the policies put forward by Sanders, a self-identified democratic socialist, might sound appealing but are ultimately impractical. | Much of Clinton’s closing argument in Iowa and New Hampshire has centered around the idea that the policies put forward by Sanders, a self-identified democratic socialist, might sound appealing but are ultimately impractical. |
| “Senator Sanders wants to start over – to plunge us into a contentious national debate,” Clinton said. “Stick with the Affordable Care Act, stick with making it better,.” | “Senator Sanders wants to start over – to plunge us into a contentious national debate,” Clinton said. “Stick with the Affordable Care Act, stick with making it better,.” |
| Clinton also took a veiled shot at Sanders by vowing not to raise taxes on the middle class, following an acknowledgement by the senator’s campaign that his healthcare plan would require a tax hike on most Americans – in return, they say, for larger savings on insurance costs. | Clinton also took a veiled shot at Sanders by vowing not to raise taxes on the middle class, following an acknowledgement by the senator’s campaign that his healthcare plan would require a tax hike on most Americans – in return, they say, for larger savings on insurance costs. |
| “I will not raise middle class taxes – absolutely off the table. I will follow the money to the top,” Clinton said. | “I will not raise middle class taxes – absolutely off the table. I will follow the money to the top,” Clinton said. |
| Related: Hillary Clinton's final pitch to Iowans: thanks to you, I'm a better candidate | Related: Hillary Clinton's final pitch to Iowans: thanks to you, I'm a better candidate |
| 2.40pm GMT | 2.40pm GMT |
| 14:40 | 14:40 |
| DC bureau chief Dan Roberts, reporting from Iowa with colleagues, the campaigns and maybe every political journalist in the continental US. | DC bureau chief Dan Roberts, reporting from Iowa with colleagues, the campaigns and maybe every political journalist in the continental US. |
| Iowa, where 200,000 people get to sink or launch the career of the most powerful elected official on earth. pic.twitter.com/0JZb9kESCj | Iowa, where 200,000 people get to sink or launch the career of the most powerful elected official on earth. pic.twitter.com/0JZb9kESCj |
| When you can't move in your local coffee shop for breakfast TV political shows. Welcome to Des Moines on caucus day. pic.twitter.com/LJu2oUBKCx | When you can't move in your local coffee shop for breakfast TV political shows. Welcome to Des Moines on caucus day. pic.twitter.com/LJu2oUBKCx |
| “When you can’t move in your local coffee shop because they are filming breakfast TV political shows. Des Moines on caucus day.” | “When you can’t move in your local coffee shop because they are filming breakfast TV political shows. Des Moines on caucus day.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.42pm GMT | at 2.42pm GMT |
| 2.28pm GMT | 2.28pm GMT |
| 14:28 | 14:28 |
| Four years ago a one-term senator so drew the crowds of Iowa that he had to deliver two speeches at one restaurant, one using a bullhorn. | Four years ago a one-term senator so drew the crowds of Iowa that he had to deliver two speeches at one restaurant, one using a bullhorn. |
| But although Rick Santorum won Iowa on the strength of his evangelical credentials, he failed to make a mark on the rest of the 2012 primary, which Mitt Romney survived to win the nomination. Which raises a question: is Iowa any good at predicting a winner? | But although Rick Santorum won Iowa on the strength of his evangelical credentials, he failed to make a mark on the rest of the 2012 primary, which Mitt Romney survived to win the nomination. Which raises a question: is Iowa any good at predicting a winner? |
| As usual, it depends. In modern elections, the conventional wisdom is that candidate’s need a top-three finish to have a chance – though in 2008, for instance, John McCain placed fourth. Iowa Democrats have had more success picking the eventual nominee than their Republican counterparts. But it is just the first state of many that will eventually decide who runs in the general election. | As usual, it depends. In modern elections, the conventional wisdom is that candidate’s need a top-three finish to have a chance – though in 2008, for instance, John McCain placed fourth. Iowa Democrats have had more success picking the eventual nominee than their Republican counterparts. But it is just the first state of many that will eventually decide who runs in the general election. |
| And if you’d like to know more about the sad travails of Rick Santorum, my colleague Ben Jacobs was with the former senator at a Pizza Ranch yesterday – that same site of Santorum’s glory four years ago. Santorum was declared an “honorary employee”. | And if you’d like to know more about the sad travails of Rick Santorum, my colleague Ben Jacobs was with the former senator at a Pizza Ranch yesterday – that same site of Santorum’s glory four years ago. Santorum was declared an “honorary employee”. |
| Related: Rick Santorum: an Iowa requiem for the candidate holding a tiny slice of support | Related: Rick Santorum: an Iowa requiem for the candidate holding a tiny slice of support |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.59pm GMT | at 2.59pm GMT |
| 2.02pm GMT | 2.02pm GMT |
| 14:02 | 14:02 |
| What are caucuses? | What are caucuses? |
| Better to ask and learn than live in ignorance. The Iowa caucuses are the first decision of the presidential election, and a means for the rural state to influence a national election that is often dominated by the dense populations of big states like California and Florida. And sometimes there are cookies. | Better to ask and learn than live in ignorance. The Iowa caucuses are the first decision of the presidential election, and a means for the rural state to influence a national election that is often dominated by the dense populations of big states like California and Florida. And sometimes there are cookies. |
| They caucuses start at 7pm local time, though campaigns recommend Iowans get there early – once you’re late you’re out. | They caucuses start at 7pm local time, though campaigns recommend Iowans get there early – once you’re late you’re out. |
| How do they work? | How do they work? |
| Video editor Valerie Lapinski explains. | Video editor Valerie Lapinski explains. |
| Some other notes: | Some other notes: |
| Related: How the Iowa caucuses work: a confusing election process explained | Related: How the Iowa caucuses work: a confusing election process explained |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.06pm GMT | at 2.06pm GMT |
| 1.31pm GMT | 1.31pm GMT |
| 13:31 | 13:31 |
| One last one last poll, this one from Quinnipiac University and with an emphasis on the giant question that looms over even the very large head and hair of Donald Trump: who will actually come out to caucus? | One last one last poll, this one from Quinnipiac University and with an emphasis on the giant question that looms over even the very large head and hair of Donald Trump: who will actually come out to caucus? |
| For first-time likely caucus goers, Trump has a steady lead over Texas senator Ted Cruz, 31% to 24%. Florida senator Marco Rubio has gained, with 17%, and Ben Carson is hovering only a little above rest of the pack at 8%. No one else has more than 4%. | For first-time likely caucus goers, Trump has a steady lead over Texas senator Ted Cruz, 31% to 24%. Florida senator Marco Rubio has gained, with 17%, and Ben Carson is hovering only a little above rest of the pack at 8%. No one else has more than 4%. |
| But for Republicans who’ve caucused before, the race is far closer. Among these caucusers, Cruz leads Trump 26% to 25%. Rubio’s got 20%. | But for Republicans who’ve caucused before, the race is far closer. Among these caucusers, Cruz leads Trump 26% to 25%. Rubio’s got 20%. |
| Twenty-eight percent of the people who named a candidate said they might still change their mind, and 3% said they were undecided. | Twenty-eight percent of the people who named a candidate said they might still change their mind, and 3% said they were undecided. |
| The Democratic race has a similar dynamic. Bernie Sanders leads Clinton 62% to 35% with would be first-time caucusers. Clinton has the edge 52-41% with Iowans who’ve shown up to caucuses before. There’s less room to maneuver, though: only 2% say they’re undecided, and only 14% of those who named a candidate say they might change their mind. Martin O’Malley’s supporters amount to 3% of the people surveyed, in line with other polls. | The Democratic race has a similar dynamic. Bernie Sanders leads Clinton 62% to 35% with would be first-time caucusers. Clinton has the edge 52-41% with Iowans who’ve shown up to caucuses before. There’s less room to maneuver, though: only 2% say they’re undecided, and only 14% of those who named a candidate say they might change their mind. Martin O’Malley’s supporters amount to 3% of the people surveyed, in line with other polls. |
| All of this means high turnout should be good for Trump and Sanders, low turnout good for Cruz and Clinton – and that we shouldn’t be surprised to see campaigns doing everything they can to get people voting or staying home, as it suits their candidates’ interests. | All of this means high turnout should be good for Trump and Sanders, low turnout good for Cruz and Clinton – and that we shouldn’t be surprised to see campaigns doing everything they can to get people voting or staying home, as it suits their candidates’ interests. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.53pm GMT | at 1.53pm GMT |
| 1.07pm GMT | 1.07pm GMT |
| 13:07 | 13:07 |
| Iowa caucus day begins | Iowa caucus day begins |
| Hello and welcome to our coverage of the Iowa caucuses – the long awaited first decision day of the 2016 primary elections. | Hello and welcome to our coverage of the Iowa caucuses – the long awaited first decision day of the 2016 primary elections. |
| Astounding his party, pundits, pollsters and plenty of Americans, billionaire Donald Trump has sailed into caucus day with a lead for the Republican nomination in one of Iowa’s most trusted polls. Trump lead Texas senator Ted Cruz by five points in the Des Moines register poll, with Florida senator Marco Rubio a little further back. Trump and Cruz have exasperated Republican leaders and moderates, but like populists and a few presidents past they look poised to thrive in the Hawkeye state. | Astounding his party, pundits, pollsters and plenty of Americans, billionaire Donald Trump has sailed into caucus day with a lead for the Republican nomination in one of Iowa’s most trusted polls. Trump lead Texas senator Ted Cruz by five points in the Des Moines register poll, with Florida senator Marco Rubio a little further back. Trump and Cruz have exasperated Republican leaders and moderates, but like populists and a few presidents past they look poised to thrive in the Hawkeye state. |
| Democratic leader Hillary Clinton faces the possibility of déja vù: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders trailed her by only three points in the final Iowa poll, within the margin of error and with the enthusiasm of thousands at his back. Sanders is hoping for an upset to jump start his political revolution, and Clinton is hoping to secure her place as the party’s pragmatist-in-chief. | Democratic leader Hillary Clinton faces the possibility of déja vù: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders trailed her by only three points in the final Iowa poll, within the margin of error and with the enthusiasm of thousands at his back. Sanders is hoping for an upset to jump start his political revolution, and Clinton is hoping to secure her place as the party’s pragmatist-in-chief. |
| But if the 2016 election has proven anything before its first decision, it’s that Americans have a huge appetite for chaos in their democracy. Republicans Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are all still hoping – maybe a little desperately – for surprise strength in Iowa, as are former Iowa winners Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. | But if the 2016 election has proven anything before its first decision, it’s that Americans have a huge appetite for chaos in their democracy. Republicans Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are all still hoping – maybe a little desperately – for surprise strength in Iowa, as are former Iowa winners Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. |
| Former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, or at least his support, remains a key factor that could turn the close Democratic race. | Former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, or at least his support, remains a key factor that could turn the close Democratic race. |
| Caucuses begin in Iowa at 7pm local time (8pm Eastern, 1am GMT) and we can expect results around 11pm local (midnight ET, 5am GMT). | Caucuses begin in Iowa at 7pm local time (8pm Eastern, 1am GMT) and we can expect results around 11pm local (midnight ET, 5am GMT). |
| You may notice some people are feeling excited. | You may notice some people are feeling excited. |
| It all begins today - WE WILL FINALLY TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! | It all begins today - WE WILL FINALLY TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! |
| In Iowa for the Guardian US are head of news David Taylor, DC bureau chief Dan Roberts, west coast bureau chief Paul Lewis, political reporters Ben Jacobs and Sabrina Siddiqui and editor-at-large Gary Younge. National reporter Lauren Gambino and columnist Richard Wolffe are in New Hampshire, the next primary state – and a battleground where Sanders leads Clinton by 20 points and Rubio is gaining strength against Trump. | In Iowa for the Guardian US are head of news David Taylor, DC bureau chief Dan Roberts, west coast bureau chief Paul Lewis, political reporters Ben Jacobs and Sabrina Siddiqui and editor-at-large Gary Younge. National reporter Lauren Gambino and columnist Richard Wolffe are in New Hampshire, the next primary state – and a battleground where Sanders leads Clinton by 20 points and Rubio is gaining strength against Trump. |
| So we’ll bring you all the news and throw in some glories of American democracy too. There’s a patriotic tractor with a hologram eagle. Pheasant hunting with Trump sons. Bernie Sanders ice cream. Republican sea ice sophistry. Derelict campaign bus protest art projects. Five thousand people singing folk songs. Three generations of Clinton. | So we’ll bring you all the news and throw in some glories of American democracy too. There’s a patriotic tractor with a hologram eagle. Pheasant hunting with Trump sons. Bernie Sanders ice cream. Republican sea ice sophistry. Derelict campaign bus protest art projects. Five thousand people singing folk songs. Three generations of Clinton. |
| Election 2016 starts today. | Election 2016 starts today. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.42pm GMT | at 3.42pm GMT |