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| Election live: Florida and Ohio primaries loom large for candidates' momentum | Election live: Florida and Ohio primaries loom large for candidates' momentum |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.40pm GMT | |
| 22:40 | |
| After Tuesday: the path ahead | |
| Where do we go from here? | |
| Looking ahead to the demographics of upcoming races on the Democratic side, it’s heavily Western with fewer nonwhite voters and states such as Arizona and Washington with significant college populations and liberally social attitudes among primary voters. A FiveThirtyEight analysis see all of the above as boding well for Bernie Sanders, who could win seven of next eight contests after today. | |
| Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics sees a mixed map ahead for Donald Trump, who “has demographically favorable states coming up in New York, Rhode Island, West Virginia, and possibly Connecticut and New Jersey, but there is also a slate of Midwestern and Rocky Mountain states on the horizon, where his polling performance has been much less impressive. Also, his strongest region – the South – will have finished its voting.” | |
| Ted Cruz, for his part, will have exhausted states with significant evangelical Christian populations after tonight, in North Carolina and Missouri. | |
| 10.34pm GMT | |
| 22:34 | |
| Poll closing times | |
| 7pm ET | |
| most of Florida | |
| 7.30pm ET | |
| Ohio and North Carolina | |
| 8pm ET | |
| Illinois, Missouri and the Florida panhandle | |
| NB: North Carolina is expected to produce results quickly because of a high proportion of absentee voting there. 95% of Florida polls are supposed to close at 7pm ET – but it’s Florida. | |
| 10.30pm GMT | |
| 22:30 | |
| Megan Carpentier | |
| Vox Pop: the Ted Cruz education voters | |
| Names: Terry and Teresa FitchAge: 23 and declined to sayLocation: Mansfield, OhioOccupation: “in between” and elementary school teacherVoted for: Ted CruzWhy? Teresa: “There’s so many [reasons]. Education, because I am a teacher... Reduced testing. We test way too much. A lot of it is state-mandated and the kids get tired of it. It’s hard on them.”Terry: “We need to teach kids how to learn, not how to take the test.” | |
| 10.29pm GMT | |
| 22:29 | |
| Five states are voting tonight and the Northern Marianas already gave their nine Republican delegates to Trump. The big winner-take-all Republican contests are finally here. Sanders is looking for an Ohio surprise. There’s magic in the air. | |
| So what do we call it? We’ve already used Super Tuesday a couple times (at least, it seems). | |
| - CNN: Super Tuesday 3- Fox: Super Tuesday II- ABC: Mini Super Tuesday- Yahoo: Super-Duper Tuesday | |
| Too Super Too Tuesday https://t.co/2lNmJb8ZyE | |
| Any ideas? WTA-Tuesday? Florida’s revenge? Can we work an acronym here? | |
| 10.24pm GMT | |
| 22:24 | |
| Where’s Mencken when you need him? | |
| It's not the saddest thing about this US election but it's still sad that Henry Louis Mencken ain't here to see it. | |
| 10.22pm GMT | |
| 22:22 | |
| David Smith | |
| Vox Pop: Clinton for ‘unity’ but ‘I love Trump too’ | |
| Lucinda Clairvoyant, 33, of Palm Beach: Hillary Clinton can bring "unity" but "I love Donald Trump too". pic.twitter.com/HktLUhGXYn | |
| Name: Lucinda Clairvoyant | |
| Age: 33 | |
| Location: Palm Beach | |
| Voting for: Hillary Clinton | |
| “I want unity because there is violence all over the world in communities affected by breakdown every day. We need a president of unity to decrease the heartache that people go through. Hillary Clinton has been around President Obama and she has foreign policy experience and can demonstrate a professional outlook. | |
| “I also like her because she once wrote me a letter that made me feel special as a Christian. She seemed to know how I felt. On the internet I wrote back to her through the Holy Spirit. But I love Donald Trump too and think he would be a good candidate. I like him even though he’s not a Democrat. He knows how to use your money because he has experience from business.” | |
| 10.19pm GMT | |
| 22:19 | |
| Florida county seeks extended voting time | |
| Lauren Gambino | |
| With less than an hour to go before polls close in east Florida, voters are waiting to hear whether the governor will grant permission to extend polling hours in Orange County due to a ballot shortage there, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino from West Palm Beach: | |
| On Tuesday afternoon, Orange County election officials asked the governor to extend polling hours in the county by one hour – to 8pm. Polling stations in the western panhandle close then. | |
| In a letter sent to Florida governor Rick Scott, Orange County elections supervisor Bill Cowles explained that the shortage was due to a computer glitch when the ballots were sent to the printer. It is unclear how many ballots were not printed, and how many are still needed. | |
| Orange County incorporates 52 precincts, with shortages reported in Apopka, Ocoee, Maitland, Windermere and Belle Isle. | |
| Updated | |
| at 10.21pm GMT | |
| 10.15pm GMT | |
| 22:15 | |
| John Kasich’s most famous supporter makes out with his dogs somewhere on a staircase in has to be California. | |
| And urges people to get out and vote! | |
| Gov .@Schwarzenegger just posted the greatest Get Out the Vote @Snapchat ever for @JohnKasich. pic.twitter.com/PoZrLDV48I | |
| (h/t @bencjacobs) | |
| 10.12pm GMT | |
| 22:12 | |
| Richard Luscombe | |
| We’ve been talking with a lot of voters today, asking them about their top concerns, what they do and whom they voted for. You can find a stack of our earlier vox pop interviews – and many more goodies – in my colleague Scott Bixby’s live blog of the action earlier today: | |
| Related: Election live: Trump and Clinton look to hold off rivals in crucial primaries | |
| And here’s a new voter interview: | |
| Vox Pop: the retiree voting for Trump – and jobs | |
| Primary day in Tamarac, Florida. Retired burglar alarm engineer Anthony Dangelo is voting for Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/ohmn5sgIB5 | |
| Name: Anthony Dangelo | |
| Age: 66 | |
| Location: Tamarac, Florida | |
| Occupation: Retired burglar alarm engineer | |
| Voted for: Donald Trump | |
| “That wall needs to be put up down there in Mexico because a lot of immigrants have been coming in and a lot of drugs are coming in which are killing 20-year-old kids up in Ohio, up in Oklahoma, killing kids all over. These kids have no jobs because of the last administration and they just sit there taking drugs. | |
| “I have two children who went to college, I worked really hard to get them into that, paid for most of their way, and neither of them can get jobs that they should be working at. There’s a lot of richness here in this country but the money’s not moving and it seems the government is stifling business. My daughter’s waitressing on tables, she’s a smart girl and could get a good job but there’s nothing out there. | |
| “I’m voting for Trump because he is not connected with what’s been going on the last few years in Washington. Republicans, Democrats, it’s a clique up there. They don’t want to deal with what the people really want. Trump doesn’t have to listen to people pulling his strings, he’ll work for the people. He raised some great kids, I hope he raises our country the same way.” | |
| Updated | |
| at 10.13pm GMT | |
| 10.09pm GMT | 10.09pm GMT |
| 22:09 | 22:09 |
| The exit poll temptation | The exit poll temptation |
| It’s our custom to supply links to exit polling data decorated with the asterisk that the data do not represent results, and may in fact be contra-indicative of results. | It’s our custom to supply links to exit polling data decorated with the asterisk that the data do not represent results, and may in fact be contra-indicative of results. |
| Looking at this exit poll data, it's clear that neither Sanders nor Clinton will win in any of the the Republican primaries. | |
| But look at all the college grads that voted in the Republican race in Florida, according to exit polling. How will that play? It’s not a group that Donald Trump has been particularly strong with. (Trump is ahead in Florida polling averages by 20+ points.) | But look at all the college grads that voted in the Republican race in Florida, according to exit polling. How will that play? It’s not a group that Donald Trump has been particularly strong with. (Trump is ahead in Florida polling averages by 20+ points.) |
| Early exit data -- College degree? (GOP electorates)Florida 53%NC 52%Ohio 51%IL 51%Missouri 48% | Early exit data -- College degree? (GOP electorates)Florida 53%NC 52%Ohio 51%IL 51%Missouri 48% |
| Incidentally MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki’s Twitter feed is a good place to find exit poll goodies. | Incidentally MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki’s Twitter feed is a good place to find exit poll goodies. |
| The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino reports that a “realistic policies” gap measured on the Democratic side jibes with what she hears from voters (and she’s interviewed a lot of them – see a bounty of vox pop interviews here): | The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino reports that a “realistic policies” gap measured on the Democratic side jibes with what she hears from voters (and she’s interviewed a lot of them – see a bounty of vox pop interviews here): |
| Heard this a few times today from voters feeling the Bern but voting for Hillary https://t.co/vZqBNNKvv8 | Heard this a few times today from voters feeling the Bern but voting for Hillary https://t.co/vZqBNNKvv8 |
| 76% of Democratic voters today see Clinton's policies as realistic, versus 56% for Sanders: https://t.co/yKXsWupyYQ pic.twitter.com/Lscawuo3Gz | 76% of Democratic voters today see Clinton's policies as realistic, versus 56% for Sanders: https://t.co/yKXsWupyYQ pic.twitter.com/Lscawuo3Gz |
| Updated | |
| at 10.10pm GMT | |
| 9.28pm GMT | 9.28pm GMT |
| 21:28 | 21:28 |
| Hello and welcome to our continuing live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. Today’s big, again. Florida, Ohio and three more states are voting, with a potential for breathtaking twists in both nominating races. | |
| Ohio and Florida will award a combined 165 Republican delegates in winner-take-all contests that could flip Donald Trump over the pole vault bar, hair streaming, should he win both. But if Ohio governor John Kasich succeeds in his home state – and he looks strong there – the GOP race appears set to remain competitive through June, at least. | Ohio and Florida will award a combined 165 Republican delegates in winner-take-all contests that could flip Donald Trump over the pole vault bar, hair streaming, should he win both. But if Ohio governor John Kasich succeeds in his home state – and he looks strong there – the GOP race appears set to remain competitive through June, at least. |
| Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, has predicted victory in Ohio, after he staged an upset win a week ago in neighboring Michigan. Hillary Clinton leads in the polls in Ohio, but her surprise loss in Michigan underscored how tenuous polling leads are. | Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, has predicted victory in Ohio, after he staged an upset win a week ago in neighboring Michigan. Hillary Clinton leads in the polls in Ohio, but her surprise loss in Michigan underscored how tenuous polling leads are. |
| The campaign of senator Marco Rubio is hanging by a thread, meanwhile, as he appears far behind in his home state, which he has framed as a must-win. | The campaign of senator Marco Rubio is hanging by a thread, meanwhile, as he appears far behind in his home state, which he has framed as a must-win. |
| We’ll bring you results immediately as they land, reports from polling stations and coverage of the candidates’ victory-slash-misery speeches. Your job is to leave your predictions and break down the results in the comments so we may feature them here. | We’ll bring you results immediately as they land, reports from polling stations and coverage of the candidates’ victory-slash-misery speeches. Your job is to leave your predictions and break down the results in the comments so we may feature them here. |
| The first exit polls have just been published. Actual results will begin to arrive in under two hours – most Florida polls close at 7pm ET, Ohio and North Carolina close at 7.30pm ET and Illinois and Missouri follow at 8pm ET. | The first exit polls have just been published. Actual results will begin to arrive in under two hours – most Florida polls close at 7pm ET, Ohio and North Carolina close at 7.30pm ET and Illinois and Missouri follow at 8pm ET. |
| Here’s how the delegate races stand: | Here’s how the delegate races stand: |
| Buckle your seatbelts, as Kasich likes to say – and thank you for reading and taking part! | Buckle your seatbelts, as Kasich likes to say – and thank you for reading and taking part! |
| Updated | |
| at 10.14pm GMT |