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Election live: Florida and Ohio primaries loom large for candidates' momentum
Primary day live: Florida and Ohio contests loom large for candidates' momentum
(35 minutes later)
11.17pm GMT
23:17
Many close observers of Florida counties are impressed with Trump’s numbers – and Clinton’s.
Huge early vote margins for Clinton and Trump in the early returns in Florida.
The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino is on to a happy-looking scene at Clinton’s election night redoubt in West Palm Beach:
Vibes from @HillaryClinton election night party #FloridaPrimary 💃🏽 pic.twitter.com/EuLgdTXxyr
The Democratic race in Florida is proportional, not winner-take-all – meaning a big margin there, and in the other states, would matter for Clinton in the game of delegate capture, which is the only game going.
Updated
at 11.18pm GMT
11.14pm GMT
23:14
Trump calls Florida for himself.
Word is that, despite a record amount spent on negative and phony ads, I had a massive victory in Florida. Numbers out soon!
Guardian Washington correspondent David Smith is at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago for an election night news conference. You can hit golf balls at flags there.
Patriotic golf course. pic.twitter.com/8MjfSBOTe6
11.13pm GMT
23:13
Mona Chalabi
The results are in for one of the primaries being held today - albeit one that’s considered pretty inconsequential. The islanders of Northern Mariana, a US territory, held their Republican caucus today. All nine delegates up for grabs went to Donald Trump based on the 451 votes that were cast.
But let’s take a step back and appraise where we’re at in the race.
So far, Trump has got 469 of the 1,064 Republican delegates that have been pledged (44%). Clinton meanwhile has 768 of the 1,322 of the pledged Democrat delegates (58%) but she has a potentially huge advantage since she has 95% of the 493 unpledged so-called “super delegates” – party luminaries who don’t have to vote according to the results of the primaries.
11.12pm GMT
23:12
What kind of night will Trump and Clinton have in the Sunshine state?
Early vote in Broward: Trump by 22 over Rubio. Clinton by 52 over Sanders. https://t.co/EjQgFHBzJe
Let's be real: Ain't nothing in these early votes that suggest anything other than a Trump blowout in Florida.
Updated
at 11.14pm GMT
11.10pm GMT
23:10
They’ve counted 511 Democratic votes in Florida. Clinton jumps to an early lead! Kidding– we’re at 0% reporting. Hie thee to our comprehensive results page.
11.06pm GMT
23:06
Cruz: 'absolutely zero interest' in running with Trump
Texas senator Ted Cruz has ruled out being Donald Trump’s running mate, in an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt.
Cruz also said “Donald Trump loses to Hillary”. Have a listen:
11.03pm GMT
23:03
Florida polls close
The majority of polling stations are now closing in Florida. All polls in the state are to close by 8pm ET.
First results are expected shortly.
10.59pm GMT
22:59
Introducing the Minute
If you like what you read here – we invite you try out the Campaign Minute, a quickie daily digest of politics news that can drop into your inbox or pop up on your phone once every weekday from now till November 8.
It’s designed to be fast and fun – check out today’s version here and sign up here, or register on your nearest Guardian app.
10.53pm GMT
22:53
Senator Marco Rubio is about to see the first returns of the rest of his political life.
The Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui had an exclusive interview with Rubio in which he warned that Donald Trump was an “embarrassment,” that soi-disant conservatives who back Trump will have some explaining to do down the line, and that the GOP cannot afford to become the party of fear.
Marco Rubio previews a Republican Party "in the wilderness" if Trump is nominee https://t.co/HLHypjWGgM pic.twitter.com/WVJzpYzDZJ
Updated
at 11.00pm GMT
10.46pm GMT
22:46
Florida polls to close at top of hour
Welcome, if you’re just joining our live election night coverage – the vast majority of Florida polls are set to close at 7pm ET and we may have results fairly quickly, especially if Donald Trump’s advantage according to the pollsters translated in the actual voting.
It’ll be a quick hour here with all five states winding down by 8pm. It’s all primaries tonight – no caucuses – so we might expect the results to be delivered with particular efficiency.
Our comprehensive, county-by-county results page is here and below. If you’ve joined us on election night before, you’ll know that it features animations of the candidates riding scissors lifts and wielding paintbrushes to mark counties they’ve won.
Related: Live results: Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, county by county
Updated
at 10.50pm GMT
10.40pm GMT
10.40pm GMT
22:40
22:40
After Tuesday: the path ahead
After Tuesday: the path ahead
Where do we go from here?
Where do we go from here?
Looking ahead to the demographics of upcoming races on the Democratic side, it’s heavily Western with fewer nonwhite voters and states such as Arizona and Washington with significant college populations and liberally social attitudes among primary voters. A FiveThirtyEight analysis see all of the above as boding well for Bernie Sanders, who could win seven of next eight contests after today.
Looking ahead to the demographics of upcoming races on the Democratic side, it’s heavily Western with fewer nonwhite voters and states such as Arizona and Washington with significant college populations and liberally social attitudes among primary voters. A FiveThirtyEight analysis see all of the above as boding well for Bernie Sanders, who could win seven of next eight contests after today.
Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics sees a mixed map ahead for Donald Trump, who “has demographically favorable states coming up in New York, Rhode Island, West Virginia, and possibly Connecticut and New Jersey, but there is also a slate of Midwestern and Rocky Mountain states on the horizon, where his polling performance has been much less impressive. Also, his strongest region – the South – will have finished its voting.”
Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics sees a mixed map ahead for Donald Trump, who “has demographically favorable states coming up in New York, Rhode Island, West Virginia, and possibly Connecticut and New Jersey, but there is also a slate of Midwestern and Rocky Mountain states on the horizon, where his polling performance has been much less impressive. Also, his strongest region – the South – will have finished its voting.”
Ted Cruz, for his part, will have exhausted states with significant evangelical Christian populations after tonight, in North Carolina and Missouri.
Ted Cruz, for his part, will have exhausted states with significant evangelical Christian populations after tonight, in North Carolina and Missouri.
10.34pm GMT
22:34
Poll closing times
7pm ET
most of Florida
7.30pm ET
Ohio and North Carolina
8pm ET
Illinois, Missouri and the Florida panhandle
NB: North Carolina is expected to produce results quickly because of a high proportion of absentee voting there. 95% of Florida polls are supposed to close at 7pm ET – but it’s Florida.
10.30pm GMT
22:30
Megan Carpentier
Vox Pop: the Ted Cruz education voters
Names: Terry and Teresa FitchAge: 23 and declined to sayLocation: Mansfield, OhioOccupation: “in between” and elementary school teacherVoted for: Ted CruzWhy? Teresa: “There’s so many [reasons]. Education, because I am a teacher... Reduced testing. We test way too much. A lot of it is state-mandated and the kids get tired of it. It’s hard on them.”Terry: “We need to teach kids how to learn, not how to take the test.”
10.29pm GMT
22:29
Five states are voting tonight and the Northern Marianas already gave their nine Republican delegates to Trump. The big winner-take-all Republican contests are finally here. Sanders is looking for an Ohio surprise. There’s magic in the air.
So what do we call it? We’ve already used Super Tuesday a couple times (at least, it seems).
- CNN: Super Tuesday 3- Fox: Super Tuesday II- ABC: Mini Super Tuesday- Yahoo: Super-Duper Tuesday
Too Super Too Tuesday https://t.co/2lNmJb8ZyE
Any ideas? WTA-Tuesday? Florida’s revenge? Can we work an acronym here?
10.24pm GMT
22:24
Where’s Mencken when you need him?
It's not the saddest thing about this US election but it's still sad that Henry Louis Mencken ain't here to see it.
10.22pm GMT
22:22
David Smith
Vox Pop: Clinton for ‘unity’ but ‘I love Trump too’
Lucinda Clairvoyant, 33, of Palm Beach: Hillary Clinton can bring "unity" but "I love Donald Trump too". pic.twitter.com/HktLUhGXYn
Name: Lucinda Clairvoyant
Age: 33
Location: Palm Beach
Voting for: Hillary Clinton
“I want unity because there is violence all over the world in communities affected by breakdown every day. We need a president of unity to decrease the heartache that people go through. Hillary Clinton has been around President Obama and she has foreign policy experience and can demonstrate a professional outlook.
“I also like her because she once wrote me a letter that made me feel special as a Christian. She seemed to know how I felt. On the internet I wrote back to her through the Holy Spirit. But I love Donald Trump too and think he would be a good candidate. I like him even though he’s not a Democrat. He knows how to use your money because he has experience from business.”
10.19pm GMT
22:19
Florida county seeks extended voting time
Lauren Gambino
With less than an hour to go before polls close in east Florida, voters are waiting to hear whether the governor will grant permission to extend polling hours in Orange County due to a ballot shortage there, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino from West Palm Beach:
On Tuesday afternoon, Orange County election officials asked the governor to extend polling hours in the county by one hour – to 8pm. Polling stations in the western panhandle close then.
In a letter sent to Florida governor Rick Scott, Orange County elections supervisor Bill Cowles explained that the shortage was due to a computer glitch when the ballots were sent to the printer. It is unclear how many ballots were not printed, and how many are still needed.
Orange County incorporates 52 precincts, with shortages reported in Apopka, Ocoee, Maitland, Windermere and Belle Isle.
Updated
at 10.21pm GMT
10.15pm GMT
22:15
John Kasich’s most famous supporter makes out with his dogs somewhere on a staircase in has to be California.
And urges people to get out and vote!
Gov .@Schwarzenegger just posted the greatest Get Out the Vote @Snapchat ever for @JohnKasich. pic.twitter.com/PoZrLDV48I
(h/t @bencjacobs)
10.12pm GMT
22:12
Richard Luscombe
We’ve been talking with a lot of voters today, asking them about their top concerns, what they do and whom they voted for. You can find a stack of our earlier vox pop interviews – and many more goodies – in my colleague Scott Bixby’s live blog of the action earlier today:
Related: Election live: Trump and Clinton look to hold off rivals in crucial primaries
And here’s a new voter interview:
Vox Pop: the retiree voting for Trump – and jobs
Primary day in Tamarac, Florida. Retired burglar alarm engineer Anthony Dangelo is voting for Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/ohmn5sgIB5
Name: Anthony Dangelo
Age: 66
Location: Tamarac, Florida
Occupation: Retired burglar alarm engineer
Voted for: Donald Trump
“That wall needs to be put up down there in Mexico because a lot of immigrants have been coming in and a lot of drugs are coming in which are killing 20-year-old kids up in Ohio, up in Oklahoma, killing kids all over. These kids have no jobs because of the last administration and they just sit there taking drugs.
“I have two children who went to college, I worked really hard to get them into that, paid for most of their way, and neither of them can get jobs that they should be working at. There’s a lot of richness here in this country but the money’s not moving and it seems the government is stifling business. My daughter’s waitressing on tables, she’s a smart girl and could get a good job but there’s nothing out there.
“I’m voting for Trump because he is not connected with what’s been going on the last few years in Washington. Republicans, Democrats, it’s a clique up there. They don’t want to deal with what the people really want. Trump doesn’t have to listen to people pulling his strings, he’ll work for the people. He raised some great kids, I hope he raises our country the same way.”
Updated
at 10.13pm GMT
10.09pm GMT
22:09
The exit poll temptation
It’s our custom to supply links to exit polling data decorated with the asterisk that the data do not represent results, and may in fact be contra-indicative of results.
Looking at this exit poll data, it's clear that neither Sanders nor Clinton will win in any of the the Republican primaries.
But look at all the college grads that voted in the Republican race in Florida, according to exit polling. How will that play? It’s not a group that Donald Trump has been particularly strong with. (Trump is ahead in Florida polling averages by 20+ points.)
Early exit data -- College degree? (GOP electorates)Florida 53%NC 52%Ohio 51%IL 51%Missouri 48%
Incidentally MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki’s Twitter feed is a good place to find exit poll goodies.
The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino reports that a “realistic policies” gap measured on the Democratic side jibes with what she hears from voters (and she’s interviewed a lot of them – see a bounty of vox pop interviews here):
Heard this a few times today from voters feeling the Bern but voting for Hillary https://t.co/vZqBNNKvv8
76% of Democratic voters today see Clinton's policies as realistic, versus 56% for Sanders: https://t.co/yKXsWupyYQ pic.twitter.com/Lscawuo3Gz
Updated
at 10.10pm GMT
9.28pm GMT
21:28
Hello and welcome to our continuing live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. Today’s big, again. Florida, Ohio and three more states are voting, with a potential for breathtaking twists in both nominating races.
Ohio and Florida will award a combined 165 Republican delegates in winner-take-all contests that could flip Donald Trump over the pole vault bar, hair streaming, should he win both. But if Ohio governor John Kasich succeeds in his home state – and he looks strong there – the GOP race appears set to remain competitive through June, at least.
Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, has predicted victory in Ohio, after he staged an upset win a week ago in neighboring Michigan. Hillary Clinton leads in the polls in Ohio, but her surprise loss in Michigan underscored how tenuous polling leads are.
The campaign of senator Marco Rubio is hanging by a thread, meanwhile, as he appears far behind in his home state, which he has framed as a must-win.
We’ll bring you results immediately as they land, reports from polling stations and coverage of the candidates’ victory-slash-misery speeches. Your job is to leave your predictions and break down the results in the comments so we may feature them here.
The first exit polls have just been published. Actual results will begin to arrive in under two hours – most Florida polls close at 7pm ET, Ohio and North Carolina close at 7.30pm ET and Illinois and Missouri follow at 8pm ET.
Here’s how the delegate races stand:
Buckle your seatbelts, as Kasich likes to say – and thank you for reading and taking part!
