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Primary day live: Trump and Clinton lead in Florida as Kasich seeks Ohio win | |
(35 minutes later) | |
11.52pm GMT | |
23:52 | |
Bernie Sanders isn’t the only one looking ahead to Arizona next week, notes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino: | |
.@HillaryClinton also looking ahead to #Arizonaprimary with new Spanish language TV ad airing statewide https://t.co/25SsuUK5QN | |
11.49pm GMT | |
23:49 | |
Good bye Rubio Tuesday, quips David Axelrod on CNN. | |
We’ll take that cue: | |
11.48pm GMT | |
23:48 | |
The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs has Tarzaned away from the Ohio exit polls to land in a jungle of North Carolina exit polling data. | |
The exits reflect support among North Carolina Republicans for granting legal status for undocumented migrants, which would not seem to bode particularly well for Trump: | |
A majority of North Carolina Republican voters think illegal immigrants in the US should be given legal status pic.twitter.com/EaTgKE2tyP | |
But Trump holds a big lead among moderates... | |
If Trump wins in NC, it's because of his huge lead among moderate voters pic.twitter.com/xqMU7hpbAP | |
...and an even bigger lead among first-time GOP primary voters: | |
New voters overwhelmingly support Trump in NC pic.twitter.com/9oGRWnwaKX | |
11.44pm GMT | |
23:44 | |
Lucia Graves | |
A good segment of Republican voters would be unsatisfied with Donald Trump as the nominee, according to a new NBC News Exit Poll taken in five Republican primary states voting today. When asked if they’d be satisfied to choose between Trump and Hillary Clinton in the general election, just 57% said they’d be satisfied with their choice – and a whopping 37% said they’d consider a third-party candidate. That’s bad news for the party, given the states voting in tonight’s election – including GOP winner-take-all states Ohio and Florida – are some of the most consequential states still in play. | |
The good news for Trump is that in the crucial state of Florida, at least, voters seem to love him. A recent Quinnipiac University poll shows him easily besting Marco Rubio there with 46% of the vote to Rubio’s 22%, and early returns in the state are bearing this out. | |
Unlike John Kasich, who has said he would drop out if he lost his home state of Ohio, Rubio has not said definitively that he will drop out if he loses Florida, but it’s hard to see him coming back from what looks to be an impending humiliating loss. | |
11.43pm GMT | |
23:43 | |
Excited perhaps by what looks like a towering Florida victory, Trump calls Fox News host Megyn Kelly “crazy Megyn” on election night: | |
"@SCNAK45: @megynkelly is trying so hard to bash @realDonaldTrump it's ridiculous" Don't worry, everyone is wise to Crazy Megyn! | |
11.40pm GMT | |
23:40 | |
“Kasich is for closers”: | |
Kasich crushes with late deciders in Ohio pic.twitter.com/cGvqDZ7U5x | |
The above exit polling data tracks closely with surveys of voters that showed Kasich coming from behind to overtake Trump in Ohio in recent weeks. | |
11.39pm GMT | |
23:39 | |
The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs is trawling through Ohio exit polls. | |
He finds Kasich winning with every age group in Ohio, according to exits: | |
Kasich wins among every age group in Ohio. Biggest edge with young voters pic.twitter.com/xBEDcRWDKD | |
While Trump takes low-income voters: | |
The poorer a voter is in Ohio, the better Trump does there pic.twitter.com/Vk4Uo2m0Mb | |
But Trump crumples as a candidate whose values voters recognize: | |
Trump gets killed among those looking for a candidate who shares their values pic.twitter.com/xQX63larg2 | |
11.33pm GMT | |
23:33 | |
Is Bernie Sanders worried about a potential blowout loss in Florida? | |
He’s already looking ahead to Arizona voting next Tuesday: | |
.@BernieSanders just landed in Phoenix, Arizona. He seemed cheerful as he waved to reporters. pic.twitter.com/YtjxODiWRk | |
The power of a big margin in the Democratic race in Florida, in which delegates are awarded proportionally, may be on full display tonight. | |
To be clear: Bernie Sanders' path looked really remote heading into tonight. But FL on pace to make it next to impossible right now. | |
Updated | |
at 11.35pm GMT | |
11.33pm GMT | |
23:33 | |
Mona Chalabi | |
Initial results suggest that Clinton and Trump are both ahead by a long way in Florida. That’s not really surprising - when I looked at polling averages yesterday, that was the state where both candidates had the largest leads. | |
The final vote share of Florida’s 99 delegates will matter for Democrats (for Republicans, this is a winner-takes-all state so percentages don’t matter so much) but I’ll be keeping a close eye on the other states where Clinton and Trump have a smaller lead tonight too. | |
11.32pm GMT | |
23:32 | |
North Carolina and Ohio polls close and there are no immediate projections. There are no official results in yet, either – but the Tarheel state looks tight in exit polling: | |
North Carolina exit poll shows Trump with the edge over Cruz but still close | |
11.31pm GMT | |
23:31 | |
“I wonder how many Republican leaders will be looking at the Florida numbers and shaking their heads about how they might have played this better,” writes Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts. | |
Despite Trump's imminent crushing-looking victory in Florida, it's interesting that he currently has less votes than the others put together | |
11.28pm GMT | |
23:28 | |
One single bit of good news now for Marco Rubio: he’s looking good in Miami, where he lives. | |
Rubio is cleaning up in early voting in Miami-Dade. It may not matter though | |
HUGE Rubio lead among Miami-Dade's early voters: He got 64% of 64,000 voters, compared to just 20% for Trump!Clinton up 80% to 20% here. | |
Well wait, here’s another little bit of good news: Rubio looks likely not to come in third: | |
The only good Florida news for Marco Rubio? It doesn't appear he's any danger of finishing 3rd behind Ted Cruz. | |
Updated | |
at 11.28pm GMT | |
11.25pm GMT | |
23:25 | |
Ohio, North Carolina polls to close | |
Five minutes till the 2016 Ohio primary (GOP: 66 winner-take-all) is on the books. North Carolina too (GOP: 72 proportional). | |
Can the governor pull it off? | |
11.17pm GMT | 11.17pm GMT |
23:17 | 23:17 |
Many close observers of Florida counties are impressed with Trump’s numbers – and Clinton’s. | Many close observers of Florida counties are impressed with Trump’s numbers – and Clinton’s. |
Huge early vote margins for Clinton and Trump in the early returns in Florida. | Huge early vote margins for Clinton and Trump in the early returns in Florida. |
The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino is on to a happy-looking scene at Clinton’s election night redoubt in West Palm Beach: | The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino is on to a happy-looking scene at Clinton’s election night redoubt in West Palm Beach: |
Vibes from @HillaryClinton election night party #FloridaPrimary 💃🏽 pic.twitter.com/EuLgdTXxyr | Vibes from @HillaryClinton election night party #FloridaPrimary 💃🏽 pic.twitter.com/EuLgdTXxyr |
The Democratic race in Florida is proportional, not winner-take-all – meaning a big margin there, and in the other states, would matter for Clinton in the game of delegate capture, which is the only game going. | The Democratic race in Florida is proportional, not winner-take-all – meaning a big margin there, and in the other states, would matter for Clinton in the game of delegate capture, which is the only game going. |
Updated | Updated |
at 11.18pm GMT | at 11.18pm GMT |