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Primary day live: Florida and Ohio contests loom large for candidates' momentum Primary day live: Trump and Clinton lead in Florida as Kasich seeks Ohio win
(35 minutes later)
11.52pm GMT
23:52
Bernie Sanders isn’t the only one looking ahead to Arizona next week, notes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino:
.@HillaryClinton also looking ahead to #Arizonaprimary with new Spanish language TV ad airing statewide https://t.co/25SsuUK5QN
11.49pm GMT
23:49
Good bye Rubio Tuesday, quips David Axelrod on CNN.
We’ll take that cue:
11.48pm GMT
23:48
The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs has Tarzaned away from the Ohio exit polls to land in a jungle of North Carolina exit polling data.
The exits reflect support among North Carolina Republicans for granting legal status for undocumented migrants, which would not seem to bode particularly well for Trump:
A majority of North Carolina Republican voters think illegal immigrants in the US should be given legal status pic.twitter.com/EaTgKE2tyP
But Trump holds a big lead among moderates...
If Trump wins in NC, it's because of his huge lead among moderate voters pic.twitter.com/xqMU7hpbAP
...and an even bigger lead among first-time GOP primary voters:
New voters overwhelmingly support Trump in NC pic.twitter.com/9oGRWnwaKX
11.44pm GMT
23:44
Lucia Graves
A good segment of Republican voters would be unsatisfied with Donald Trump as the nominee, according to a new NBC News Exit Poll taken in five Republican primary states voting today. When asked if they’d be satisfied to choose between Trump and Hillary Clinton in the general election, just 57% said they’d be satisfied with their choice – and a whopping 37% said they’d consider a third-party candidate. That’s bad news for the party, given the states voting in tonight’s election – including GOP winner-take-all states Ohio and Florida – are some of the most consequential states still in play.
The good news for Trump is that in the crucial state of Florida, at least, voters seem to love him. A recent Quinnipiac University poll shows him easily besting Marco Rubio there with 46% of the vote to Rubio’s 22%, and early returns in the state are bearing this out.
Unlike John Kasich, who has said he would drop out if he lost his home state of Ohio, Rubio has not said definitively that he will drop out if he loses Florida, but it’s hard to see him coming back from what looks to be an impending humiliating loss.
11.43pm GMT
23:43
Excited perhaps by what looks like a towering Florida victory, Trump calls Fox News host Megyn Kelly “crazy Megyn” on election night:
"@SCNAK45: @megynkelly is trying so hard to bash @realDonaldTrump it's ridiculous" Don't worry, everyone is wise to Crazy Megyn!
11.40pm GMT
23:40
“Kasich is for closers”:
Kasich crushes with late deciders in Ohio pic.twitter.com/cGvqDZ7U5x
The above exit polling data tracks closely with surveys of voters that showed Kasich coming from behind to overtake Trump in Ohio in recent weeks.
11.39pm GMT
23:39
The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs is trawling through Ohio exit polls.
He finds Kasich winning with every age group in Ohio, according to exits:
Kasich wins among every age group in Ohio. Biggest edge with young voters pic.twitter.com/xBEDcRWDKD
While Trump takes low-income voters:
The poorer a voter is in Ohio, the better Trump does there pic.twitter.com/Vk4Uo2m0Mb
But Trump crumples as a candidate whose values voters recognize:
Trump gets killed among those looking for a candidate who shares their values pic.twitter.com/xQX63larg2
11.33pm GMT
23:33
Is Bernie Sanders worried about a potential blowout loss in Florida?
He’s already looking ahead to Arizona voting next Tuesday:
.@BernieSanders just landed in Phoenix, Arizona. He seemed cheerful as he waved to reporters. pic.twitter.com/YtjxODiWRk
The power of a big margin in the Democratic race in Florida, in which delegates are awarded proportionally, may be on full display tonight.
To be clear: Bernie Sanders' path looked really remote heading into tonight. But FL on pace to make it next to impossible right now.
Updated
at 11.35pm GMT
11.33pm GMT
23:33
Mona Chalabi
Initial results suggest that Clinton and Trump are both ahead by a long way in Florida. That’s not really surprising - when I looked at polling averages yesterday, that was the state where both candidates had the largest leads.
The final vote share of Florida’s 99 delegates will matter for Democrats (for Republicans, this is a winner-takes-all state so percentages don’t matter so much) but I’ll be keeping a close eye on the other states where Clinton and Trump have a smaller lead tonight too.
11.32pm GMT
23:32
North Carolina and Ohio polls close and there are no immediate projections. There are no official results in yet, either – but the Tarheel state looks tight in exit polling:
North Carolina exit poll shows Trump with the edge over Cruz but still close
11.31pm GMT
23:31
“I wonder how many Republican leaders will be looking at the Florida numbers and shaking their heads about how they might have played this better,” writes Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts.
Despite Trump's imminent crushing-looking victory in Florida, it's interesting that he currently has less votes than the others put together
11.28pm GMT
23:28
One single bit of good news now for Marco Rubio: he’s looking good in Miami, where he lives.
Rubio is cleaning up in early voting in Miami-Dade. It may not matter though
HUGE Rubio lead among Miami-Dade's early voters: He got 64% of 64,000 voters, compared to just 20% for Trump!Clinton up 80% to 20% here.
Well wait, here’s another little bit of good news: Rubio looks likely not to come in third:
The only good Florida news for Marco Rubio? It doesn't appear he's any danger of finishing 3rd behind Ted Cruz.
Updated
at 11.28pm GMT
11.25pm GMT
23:25
Ohio, North Carolina polls to close
Five minutes till the 2016 Ohio primary (GOP: 66 winner-take-all) is on the books. North Carolina too (GOP: 72 proportional).
Can the governor pull it off?
11.17pm GMT11.17pm GMT
23:1723:17
Many close observers of Florida counties are impressed with Trump’s numbers – and Clinton’s.Many close observers of Florida counties are impressed with Trump’s numbers – and Clinton’s.
Huge early vote margins for Clinton and Trump in the early returns in Florida.Huge early vote margins for Clinton and Trump in the early returns in Florida.
The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino is on to a happy-looking scene at Clinton’s election night redoubt in West Palm Beach:The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino is on to a happy-looking scene at Clinton’s election night redoubt in West Palm Beach:
Vibes from @HillaryClinton election night party #FloridaPrimary 💃🏽 pic.twitter.com/EuLgdTXxyrVibes from @HillaryClinton election night party #FloridaPrimary 💃🏽 pic.twitter.com/EuLgdTXxyr
The Democratic race in Florida is proportional, not winner-take-all – meaning a big margin there, and in the other states, would matter for Clinton in the game of delegate capture, which is the only game going.The Democratic race in Florida is proportional, not winner-take-all – meaning a big margin there, and in the other states, would matter for Clinton in the game of delegate capture, which is the only game going.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.18pm GMTat 11.18pm GMT
11.14pm GMT
23:14
Trump calls Florida for himself.
Word is that, despite a record amount spent on negative and phony ads, I had a massive victory in Florida. Numbers out soon!
Guardian Washington correspondent David Smith is at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago for an election night news conference. You can hit golf balls at flags there.
Patriotic golf course. pic.twitter.com/8MjfSBOTe6
11.13pm GMT
23:13
Mona Chalabi
The results are in for one of the primaries being held today - albeit one that’s considered pretty inconsequential. The islanders of Northern Mariana, a US territory, held their Republican caucus today. All nine delegates up for grabs went to Donald Trump based on the 451 votes that were cast.
But let’s take a step back and appraise where we’re at in the race.
So far, Trump has got 469 of the 1,064 Republican delegates that have been pledged (44%). Clinton meanwhile has 768 of the 1,322 of the pledged Democrat delegates (58%) but she has a potentially huge advantage since she has 95% of the 493 unpledged so-called “super delegates” – party luminaries who don’t have to vote according to the results of the primaries.
11.12pm GMT
23:12
What kind of night will Trump and Clinton have in the Sunshine state?
Early vote in Broward: Trump by 22 over Rubio. Clinton by 52 over Sanders. https://t.co/EjQgFHBzJe
45,000 Republican votes already counted in Palm Beach County: Trump 54% (!!!), Rubio 24%. Wow.
Let's be real: Ain't nothing in these early votes that suggest anything other than a Trump blowout in Florida.
Updated
at 11.14pm GMT
11.10pm GMT
23:10
They’ve counted 511 Democratic votes in Florida. Clinton jumps to an early lead! Kidding– we’re at 0% reporting. Hie thee to our comprehensive results page.
11.06pm GMT
23:06
Cruz: 'absolutely zero interest' in running with Trump
Texas senator Ted Cruz has ruled out being Donald Trump’s running mate, in an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt.
Cruz also said “Donald Trump loses to Hillary”. Have a listen:
11.03pm GMT
23:03
Florida polls close
The majority of polling stations are now closing in Florida. All polls in the state are to close by 8pm ET.
First results are expected shortly.
10.59pm GMT
22:59
Introducing the Minute
If you like what you read here – we invite you try out the Campaign Minute, a quickie daily digest of politics news that can drop into your inbox or pop up on your phone once every weekday from now till November 8.
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10.53pm GMT
22:53
Senator Marco Rubio is about to see the first returns of the rest of his political life.
The Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui had an exclusive interview with Rubio in which he warned that Donald Trump was an “embarrassment,” that soi-disant conservatives who back Trump will have some explaining to do down the line, and that the GOP cannot afford to become the party of fear.
Marco Rubio previews a Republican Party "in the wilderness" if Trump is nominee https://t.co/HLHypjWGgM pic.twitter.com/WVJzpYzDZJ
Updated
at 11.00pm GMT
10.46pm GMT
22:46
Florida polls to close at top of hour
Welcome, if you’re just joining our live election night coverage – the vast majority of Florida polls are set to close at 7pm ET and we may have results fairly quickly, especially if Donald Trump’s advantage according to the pollsters translated in the actual voting.
It’ll be a quick hour here with all five states winding down by 8pm. It’s all primaries tonight – no caucuses – so we might expect the results to be delivered with particular efficiency.
Our comprehensive, county-by-county results page is here and below. If you’ve joined us on election night before, you’ll know that it features animations of the candidates riding scissors lifts and wielding paintbrushes to mark counties they’ve won.
Related: Live results: Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, county by county
Updated
at 10.50pm GMT
10.40pm GMT
22:40
After Tuesday: the path ahead
Where do we go from here?
Looking ahead to the demographics of upcoming races on the Democratic side, it’s heavily Western with fewer nonwhite voters and states such as Arizona and Washington with significant college populations and liberally social attitudes among primary voters. A FiveThirtyEight analysis see all of the above as boding well for Bernie Sanders, who could win seven of next eight contests after today.
Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics sees a mixed map ahead for Donald Trump, who “has demographically favorable states coming up in New York, Rhode Island, West Virginia, and possibly Connecticut and New Jersey, but there is also a slate of Midwestern and Rocky Mountain states on the horizon, where his polling performance has been much less impressive. Also, his strongest region – the South – will have finished its voting.”
Ted Cruz, for his part, will have exhausted states with significant evangelical Christian populations after tonight, in North Carolina and Missouri.