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| Indiana primary live: do-or-die for Cruz as Trump seeks Republican coronation | Indiana primary live: do-or-die for Cruz as Trump seeks Republican coronation |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.53pm BST | |
| 22:53 | |
| Majority of Indiana polls to close | |
| Polling stations in 80 of 92 counties in Indiana are about to close. What’s done is (almost) done. But the first results will not emerge until all polls close at 7pm ET, at which point they are likely to emerge quickly. | |
| Have to assume Ted Cruz drops out tonight, why would he pick an unwinnable fight bound to make him unpopular? | |
| 10.49pm BST | |
| 22:49 | |
| Here is the kind of exit poll tidbit that an eyebrow might be raised at but which on the other hand might mean diddly depending on the reliability of the data which might be nil: | |
| White women in states HRC won:Clinton 57%Sanders 42...that Sanders won:Sanders 54%Clinton 44...in IN exit:Sanders 62%Clinton 38 | |
| 10.45pm BST | |
| 22:45 | |
| Ben Jacobs | |
| Cruz voter: I know what the worst case with Hillary. I don’t like it but I can manage. With Trump I just don’t know https://t.co/wvnQyWaNih | |
| “Many supporters of each candidate wouldn’t consider ultimately voting for the other,” writes Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs: | |
| Michael Strawn, a 52-year-old mortgage banker from Carmel, Indiana, who supports Cruz, told the Guardian: “Donald Trump scares me. He is unpredictable and self-centered.” A lifelong Republican, Strawn said he would have a hard time voting for Trump if he was the nominee. “I know what the worst case is with Hillary. I don’t like it but I can manage. With Trump I just don’t know.” | |
| In contrast, Danny Buechler of Greenfield not only couldn’t imagine voting for Cruz, but he couldn’t imagine voting for anyone besides Trump. The long-bearded biker, who wore a black cowboy hat with “Trump” written in silver, said he had last voted for Richard Nixon in 1968. To him, the Republican frontrunner represented “truth and change”, and Buechler took reassurance in the fact that the mogul “ain’t a politician yet”. | |
| Read the full piece here: | |
| Related: Indiana primary: Donald Trump looks poised for a win – and the nomination | |
| 10.39pm BST | |
| 22:39 | |
| The exit poll temptation | |
| If you like results but don’t like waiting, you’re in luck, because exit poll data is now trickling out. The data have been collected by interviewers outside polling stations across Indiana on behalf of a consortium of media outlets, and the data might shed light on the demographic and ideological breakdowns of today’s electorate, which information then might be extrapolated to judge the candidates’ potential performances, is how it works. | |
| You can root through the data for kernels of potential insight here, but be warned – those kernels might in fact be misleading nonsense, the result of bad voter sampling or inaccurate self-reporting by voters. | |
| Still, it is interesting to contemplate that the proportion of #NeverTrump voters in the Republican race may have been smaller, actually, than the proportion of voters who said they were #NeverCruz: | |
| IN GOP exit: If XXX is the nominee...TrumpDef vote for 55%Prob vote for 22Won't vote for 21CruzDef for 45%Prob for 28Won't 25 | |
| Read @SteveKornacki for more. | |
| Updated | |
| at 10.42pm BST | |
| 10.27pm BST | |
| 22:27 | |
| The campaign's strangest day? | |
| 3 May 2016 witnessed some of the most outlandish lines ever to surface in the national political discourse, which is saying something. | |
| Donald Trump started things off by calling into Fox News and giving credence to a months-old story in the National Enquirer – think celebrity alien baby births and John Edwards’ affair – that Ted Cruz’s father, Rafael Cruz Sr., had been captured on camera with Lee Harvey Oswald, who assassinated president John F Kennedy. | |
| “What was he doing with Lee Harvey Oswald shortly before the death, I mean before the shooting?” Trump said. (There’s no reason apart from the sterling journalistic reputation of the Enquirer, which has endorsed Trump and is published by a friend of Trump’s, to believe the man in the picture in question is indeed Cruz’s father.) | |
| Cruz replied in a midday news conference that snowballed into a full-throated condemnation of Trump, whom Cruz called a “pathological liar” and a “serial philanderer” whose “battles with venereal disease” were not the kind of thing Americans would like their teenagers to contemplate. | |
| Here’s Cruz’s sizzler: | |
| Trump hit back, saying Cruz was in the last throes of a “desperate” attempt to save his “failing campaign,” accusing him of a “ridiculous outburst” and saying he did not “have the temperament to be president.” | |
| The end. Take it away CNN’s Jake Tapper: | |
| This is two and a half minutes of must-see TV. @JakeTapper explaining and debunking the Cruz/Oswald "story" https://t.co/JGqJDp9sUj | |
| Updated | |
| at 10.28pm BST | |
| 10.18pm BST | 10.18pm BST |
| 22:18 | 22:18 |
| Visit our Indiana results map | Visit our Indiana results map |
| Our comprehensive interactive map-glamorous results page is now live here. | Our comprehensive interactive map-glamorous results page is now live here. |
| Veterans of this process know that the interactive is a great place to go if you want to compare Trump’s performance in the Indianapolis metropolitan area, say, with his results in the more rural southern part of the state or the industrial strip along the I-80 corridor up north. | Veterans of this process know that the interactive is a great place to go if you want to compare Trump’s performance in the Indianapolis metropolitan area, say, with his results in the more rural southern part of the state or the industrial strip along the I-80 corridor up north. |
| Also, there are animated candidates riding scissors lifts and wielding paintbrushes to tag territory where they’re ahead. Check it out: | Also, there are animated candidates riding scissors lifts and wielding paintbrushes to tag territory where they’re ahead. Check it out: |
| Related: Indiana primary results: track the votes, county by county | Related: Indiana primary results: track the votes, county by county |
| 10.12pm BST | 10.12pm BST |
| 22:12 | 22:12 |
| Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs is in Indianapolis tonight, where he will watch Ted Cruz deliver a speech after the results are in. | Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs is in Indianapolis tonight, where he will watch Ted Cruz deliver a speech after the results are in. |
| Set-up for Ted Cruz primary-night rally in Indianapolis's historic Union Station pic.twitter.com/fig54ugm78 | Set-up for Ted Cruz primary-night rally in Indianapolis's historic Union Station pic.twitter.com/fig54ugm78 |
| From there, Cruz heads west: | From there, Cruz heads west: |
| Cruz campaign announces stops in Lincoln, Nebraska and Spokane, Washington tomorrow | Cruz campaign announces stops in Lincoln, Nebraska and Spokane, Washington tomorrow |
| 10.03pm BST | 10.03pm BST |
| 22:03 | 22:03 |
| Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the Indiana primaries, where Donald Trump is hoping to kick his ankles free of Ted Cruz’s teeth, and Hillary Clinton is hoping to avoid another unseemly Bernie Sanders win. | Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the Indiana primaries, where Donald Trump is hoping to kick his ankles free of Ted Cruz’s teeth, and Hillary Clinton is hoping to avoid another unseemly Bernie Sanders win. |
| The stakes on the Republican side tonight cannot be overstated. If Trump wins the 30 delegates that Indiana awards the victor in the state’s popular vote (the winners in each of the state’s nine congressional districts receive three delegates apiece), only a huge upset by Cruz in California next month could stop Trump from obtaining the 1,237 pledged delegates needed to clinch the nomination. | The stakes on the Republican side tonight cannot be overstated. If Trump wins the 30 delegates that Indiana awards the victor in the state’s popular vote (the winners in each of the state’s nine congressional districts receive three delegates apiece), only a huge upset by Cruz in California next month could stop Trump from obtaining the 1,237 pledged delegates needed to clinch the nomination. |
| Tonight’s the night that Donald Trump could become the likely 2016 Republican presidential nominee. | Tonight’s the night that Donald Trump could become the likely 2016 Republican presidential nominee. |
| Polling averages have Trump up by double digits in the Hoosier state, while Clinton holds a smaller and less extensively surveyed lead over Sanders (with 83 pledged delegates to be awarded on the Democratic side). But Clinton, who holds a prohibitive lead in the delegate race, is already leaving the primary season behind and training her fire on Trump: | Polling averages have Trump up by double digits in the Hoosier state, while Clinton holds a smaller and less extensively surveyed lead over Sanders (with 83 pledged delegates to be awarded on the Democratic side). But Clinton, who holds a prohibitive lead in the delegate race, is already leaving the primary season behind and training her fire on Trump: |
| We don’t have time to waste on Trump's fake solutions that won’t do a thing to help your families.https://t.co/b4aq8SVVAB | We don’t have time to waste on Trump's fake solutions that won’t do a thing to help your families.https://t.co/b4aq8SVVAB |
| Most polling stations in Indiana, which straddles two time zones, close at 6pm ET, with the remainder closing at 7pm ET. In 2012, half the Indiana vote had been reported by 8pm ET, and 95% by 10pm ET, according to the Associated Press. | Most polling stations in Indiana, which straddles two time zones, close at 6pm ET, with the remainder closing at 7pm ET. In 2012, half the Indiana vote had been reported by 8pm ET, and 95% by 10pm ET, according to the Associated Press. |
| A very high rate of absentee ballots, which were requested in unusual volume, have been returned in Indiana, NBC News reported. | A very high rate of absentee ballots, which were requested in unusual volume, have been returned in Indiana, NBC News reported. |
| Wow—95% of the 294K absentee ballots requested in Indiana have been returned. That's in contrast to the 119,639 ballots cast in 2012. | Wow—95% of the 294K absentee ballots requested in Indiana have been returned. That's in contrast to the 119,639 ballots cast in 2012. |
| It was a strange day on the campaign trail, even for the 2016 cycle, with Trump starting off by linking Cruz’s father to the JFK assassination and Cruz trotting out an old Trump quote about venereal disease. We’ll bring you a recap of that action shortly – or you can scroll through today’s Campaign Minute or enjoy Scott Bixby’s daytime live blog. | It was a strange day on the campaign trail, even for the 2016 cycle, with Trump starting off by linking Cruz’s father to the JFK assassination and Cruz trotting out an old Trump quote about venereal disease. We’ll bring you a recap of that action shortly – or you can scroll through today’s Campaign Minute or enjoy Scott Bixby’s daytime live blog. |
| As usual, we’ll be tracking the results on our interactive maps tool and bringing you the headline returns here as soon as they come in. Do you think Sanders will pull off an upset? Is there any chance of Cruz doing the same? Wherefore John Kasich? | As usual, we’ll be tracking the results on our interactive maps tool and bringing you the headline returns here as soon as they come in. Do you think Sanders will pull off an upset? Is there any chance of Cruz doing the same? Wherefore John Kasich? |
| Here’s how the delegate races currently stack up: | Here’s how the delegate races currently stack up: |
| Thank you as always for reading – and don’t forget to join us in the comments! | Thank you as always for reading – and don’t forget to join us in the comments! |