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Indiana primary live: do-or-die for Cruz as Trump seeks Republican coronation
Indiana primary live: Trump scores big win as Clinton and Sanders in tight race
(35 minutes later)
12.02am BST
00:02
And everyone calls Indiana for Donald Trump immediately. It's all over now for Ted Cruz.
Live look at the Cruz campaign... This race (that is the primary) is almost certainly over. pic.twitter.com/zndUyoPM48
Updated
at 12.02am BST
12.00am BST
00:00
Trump projected Indiana winner
An immediate call in Indiana for Trump on the Republican side – and it appears there may be a possibility of a Trump delegate sweep.
Donald Trump is the likely 2016 Republican presidential nominee. That’s not a technical term. It’s still possible it won’t happen. But.
Ted Cruz is winning in 1 county in the state of Indiana.
Updated
at 12.03am BST
12.00am BST
00:00
Lucia Graves
Guardian US columnist Lucia Graves wonders whether tonight holds any surprises for Bernie Sanders, who is sticking in the race with a fighting spirit.
Hillary Clinton may have moved on to campaign in the general election, but Bernie Sanders isn’t giving up – and he’s hoping Indiana will tell the world tonight that his voters aren’t either.
While Sanders is overwhelmingly predicted to lose, the work and money he’s spending in Indiana suggest his team thinks he can perform better than expected.
The Vermont senator has a number of factors working in his favor tonight, including, crucially, that it’s an open primary, meaning Independents are allowed to vote. The Sanders campaign spent generously in the days and weeks leading up to tonight’s primary and they did it at a time when team Clinton had essentially moved on.
Clinton tellingly spent zero money on advertising in Indiana while Sanders spent $1.5m, and she’s spent minimal time campaigning there. Clinton further signaled her confidence by spending the day leading up to the election in Ohio – a state that has already voted in the primary and is useful to her only in so far as it pertains to the general.
With just under 5% of votes reporting, tonight’s Democratic race is shaping up to be a tight one. And while Clinton has the edge on Sanders thus far, early voting characteristically favors Clinton, whose campaign is better organized.
The math of the primary election may clear, but Sanders’ constituency isn’t done talking yet.
Updated
at 12.00am BST
11.55pm BST
23:55
Indiana projections expected soon
With the closure of the final polling stations in Indiana in about five minutes, we are expected quickly to have at least one projected winner.
11.52pm BST
23:52
Ben Jacobs is in the room with team Cruz, where the senator’s supporters are chanting at the TV:
CNN showed a Trump superPAC ad. The crowd at the Cruz event started chanting #NeverTrump
Teleprompters set up for Cruz's speech in Indy. We won't be hearing a stump tonight. Perhaps 100 or so supporters here.
Updated
at 11.55pm BST
11.46pm BST
23:46
Don’t make the mistake of neglecting our results page – we’re at 2.5% reporting now on both sides, from mostly rural precincts, and Clinton and Trump appear to be performing well:
Related: Indiana primary results: track the votes, county by county
Hillary is ahead by 15% AND her best expected counties (Hamilton, Lake and Marion) haven't even reported results yet. Dem blowout?
Updated
at 11.47pm BST
11.41pm BST
23:41
What will we learn when the last of the Indiana polls close in just 20 minutes?
Those who have dinner plans: keep em.
We haven’t even had time to order pizza yet!
11.40pm BST
23:40
Roger Stone, the former Donald Trump adviser, current Trump ally and longtime Republican bruiser, tweets that CNN’s Jake Tapper, in the spot we linked to earlier, is wrong about Ted Cruz’s father and, by the way, Lee Harvey Oswald did not kill Kennedy:
@TheLeadCNN Actually, there is quite a bit. @jaketapper has no idea what he is talking about, but then he thinks Oswald killed JFK
The next chief of staff, ladies & gentlemen. https://t.co/LY3oXMtIDs
11.35pm BST
23:35
Ted Cruz for president, down to 2% in betting pools.
Not down by 2%. Down to 2%.
Ted Cruz down to 2% in the betting odds. pic.twitter.com/AVLsbDH0Na
11.29pm BST
11.29pm BST
23:29
23:29
Here are a few good #ffs for snap results analysis:
Here are a few good #ffs for snap results analysis:
Cruz is losing absentees even outside Fort Wayne. This is looking bad for him. pic.twitter.com/7sFPESSAOJ
Cruz is losing absentees even outside Fort Wayne. This is looking bad for him. pic.twitter.com/7sFPESSAOJ
Trump delegate sweep-watch: Trump is carrying Delaware County (#IN05) 54%-29% over Cruz. Cruz actually looking better in #IN03.
Trump delegate sweep-watch: Trump is carrying Delaware County (#IN05) 54%-29% over Cruz. Cruz actually looking better in #IN03.
One bit of good news for Cruz: Kasich has just 11 percent of the vote. The bad news for Cruz is that Trump has 54% of early voters.
One bit of good news for Cruz: Kasich has just 11 percent of the vote. The bad news for Cruz is that Trump has 54% of early voters.
Getting that dumpster fire gif ready...
Getting that dumpster fire gif ready...
11.26pm BST
11.26pm BST
23:26
23:26
Forty precincts have now reported on each side – that’s less than 1% reporting. Needless to say that’s not a large enough proportion to base a projection on. But not bad for Trump, it appears:
Forty precincts have now reported on each side – that’s less than 1% reporting. Needless to say that’s not a large enough proportion to base a projection on. But not bad for Trump, it appears:
8 counties are reporting some results: All have Trump leading. (In 7 of the 8 counties, Trump's lead is between 20% and 37%.)
8 counties are reporting some results: All have Trump leading. (In 7 of the 8 counties, Trump's lead is between 20% and 37%.)
Visit our comprehensive mapped results page here:
Visit our comprehensive mapped results page here:
Related: Indiana primary results: track the votes, county by county
Related: Indiana primary results: track the votes, county by county
11.18pm BST
11.18pm BST
23:18
23:18
Why would the Associated Press be circulating a video explaining how they might call a race in Indiana immediately as polls close? Hmmm ...
Why would the Associated Press be circulating a video explaining how they might call a race in Indiana immediately as polls close? Hmmm ...
VIDEO: How could AP call winners in the Indiana primary as soon as polls close? @stephenatap explains pic.twitter.com/nJKzEQOCuD
VIDEO: How could AP call winners in the Indiana primary as soon as polls close? @stephenatap explains pic.twitter.com/nJKzEQOCuD
Updated
Updated
at 11.24pm BST
at 11.24pm BST
11.11pm BST
11.11pm BST
23:11
23:11
One precinct has let fly its results early. And Clinton holds a 228-vote lead in Indiana. Count it.
One precinct has let fly its results early. And Clinton holds a 228-vote lead in Indiana. Count it.
One precinct is already in in Indiana pic.twitter.com/5NYaBPgcPO
One precinct is already in in Indiana pic.twitter.com/5NYaBPgcPO
Here’s Nate Cohn with a good reminder of why exit polls can be misleading: they don’t encompass early votes – hundreds of thousands of them, in Indiana’s case tonight:
Here’s Nate Cohn with a good reminder of why exit polls can be misleading: they don’t encompass early votes – hundreds of thousands of them, in Indiana’s case tonight:
Clinton out to an early lead in the initial results out of Indiana. Remember: the exit polls probably didn't include early votes.
Clinton out to an early lead in the initial results out of Indiana. Remember: the exit polls probably didn't include early votes.
Updated
Updated
at 11.12pm BST
at 11.12pm BST
11.02pm BST
23:02
Donald Trump is a friend of mine.
– Senator Ted Cruz, 7/18/15
#TBT to Ted Cruz talking to reporters after Trump's comments on John McCain on July 18, 2015 pic.twitter.com/yM5J7tIdTI
11.00pm BST
23:00
10.53pm BST
22:53
Majority of Indiana polls to close
Polling stations in 80 of 92 counties in Indiana are about to close. What’s done is (almost) done.
Have to assume Ted Cruz drops out tonight, why would he pick an unwinnable fight bound to make him unpopular?
Update: to be clear: It appears there is no way that Ted Cruz might leave the race tonight or any night soon:
Indiana, Schmindiana. Do Tuesday's primary results matter to Ted Cruz? Follow @AP_Politics live coverage. pic.twitter.com/saTESdm5po
Correction: this post has been updated to reflect that some results will land before 7pm ET.
Updated
at 11.24pm BST
10.49pm BST
22:49
Here is the kind of exit poll tidbit that an eyebrow might be raised at but which on the other hand might mean diddly depending on the reliability of the data which might be nil:
White women in states HRC won:Clinton 57%Sanders 42...that Sanders won:Sanders 54%Clinton 44...in IN exit:Sanders 62%Clinton 38
10.45pm BST
22:45
Ben Jacobs
Cruz voter: I know what the worst case with Hillary. I don’t like it but I can manage. With Trump I just don’t know https://t.co/wvnQyWaNih
“Many supporters of each candidate wouldn’t consider ultimately voting for the other,” writes Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs:
Michael Strawn, a 52-year-old mortgage banker from Carmel, Indiana, who supports Cruz, told the Guardian: “Donald Trump scares me. He is unpredictable and self-centered.” A lifelong Republican, Strawn said he would have a hard time voting for Trump if he was the nominee. “I know what the worst case is with Hillary. I don’t like it but I can manage. With Trump I just don’t know.”
In contrast, Danny Buechler of Greenfield not only couldn’t imagine voting for Cruz, but he couldn’t imagine voting for anyone besides Trump. The long-bearded biker, who wore a black cowboy hat with “Trump” written in silver, said he had last voted for Richard Nixon in 1968. To him, the Republican frontrunner represented “truth and change”, and Buechler took reassurance in the fact that the mogul “ain’t a politician yet”.
Read the full piece here:
Related: Indiana primary: Donald Trump looks poised for a win – and the nomination
10.39pm BST
22:39
The exit poll temptation
If you like results but don’t like waiting, you’re in luck, because exit poll data is now trickling out. The data have been collected by interviewers outside polling stations across Indiana on behalf of a consortium of media outlets, and the data might shed light on the demographic and ideological breakdowns of today’s electorate, which information then might be extrapolated to judge the candidates’ potential performances, is how it works.
You can root through the data for kernels of potential insight here, but be warned – those kernels might in fact be misleading nonsense, the result of bad voter sampling or inaccurate self-reporting by voters.
Still, it is interesting to contemplate that the proportion of #NeverTrump voters in the Republican race may have been smaller, actually, than the proportion of voters who said they were #NeverCruz:
IN GOP exit: If XXX is the nominee...TrumpDef vote for 55%Prob vote for 22Won't vote for 21CruzDef for 45%Prob for 28Won't 25
Read @SteveKornacki for more.
Updated
at 10.42pm BST
10.27pm BST
22:27
The campaign's strangest day?
3 May 2016 witnessed some of the most outlandish lines ever to surface in the national political discourse, which is saying something.
Donald Trump started things off by calling into Fox News and giving credence to a months-old story in the National Enquirer – think celebrity alien baby births and John Edwards’ affair – that Ted Cruz’s father, Rafael Cruz Sr., had been captured on camera with Lee Harvey Oswald, who assassinated president John F Kennedy.
“What was he doing with Lee Harvey Oswald shortly before the death, I mean before the shooting?” Trump said. (There’s no reason apart from the sterling journalistic reputation of the Enquirer, which has endorsed Trump and is published by a friend of Trump’s, to believe the man in the picture in question is indeed Cruz’s father.)
Cruz replied in a midday news conference that snowballed into a full-throated condemnation of Trump, whom Cruz called a “pathological liar” and a “serial philanderer” whose “battles with venereal disease” were not the kind of thing Americans would like their teenagers to contemplate.
Here’s Cruz’s sizzler:
Trump hit back, saying Cruz was in the last throes of a “desperate” attempt to save his “failing campaign,” accusing him of a “ridiculous outburst” and saying he did not “have the temperament to be president.”
The end. Take it away CNN’s Jake Tapper:
This is two and a half minutes of must-see TV. @JakeTapper explaining and debunking the Cruz/Oswald "story" https://t.co/JGqJDp9sUj
Updated
at 10.28pm BST
10.18pm BST
22:18
Visit our Indiana results map
Our comprehensive interactive map-glamorous results page is now live here.
Veterans of this process know that the interactive is a great place to go if you want to compare Trump’s performance in the Indianapolis metropolitan area, say, with his results in the more rural southern part of the state or the industrial strip along the I-80 corridor up north.
Also, there are animated candidates riding scissors lifts and wielding paintbrushes to tag territory where they’re ahead. Check it out:
Related: Indiana primary results: track the votes, county by county
10.12pm BST
22:12
Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs is in Indianapolis tonight, where he will watch Ted Cruz deliver a speech after the results are in.
Set-up for Ted Cruz primary-night rally in Indianapolis's historic Union Station pic.twitter.com/fig54ugm78
From there, Cruz heads west:
Cruz campaign announces stops in Lincoln, Nebraska and Spokane, Washington tomorrow
10.03pm BST
22:03
Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the Indiana primaries, where Donald Trump is hoping to kick his ankles free of Ted Cruz’s teeth, and Hillary Clinton is hoping to avoid another unseemly Bernie Sanders win.
The stakes on the Republican side tonight cannot be overstated. If Trump wins the 30 delegates that Indiana awards the victor in the state’s popular vote (the winners in each of the state’s nine congressional districts receive three delegates apiece), only a huge upset by Cruz in California next month could stop Trump from obtaining the 1,237 pledged delegates needed to clinch the nomination.
Tonight’s the night that Donald Trump could become the likely 2016 Republican presidential nominee.
Polling averages have Trump up by double digits in the Hoosier state, while Clinton holds a smaller and less extensively surveyed lead over Sanders (with 83 pledged delegates to be awarded on the Democratic side). But Clinton, who holds a prohibitive lead in the delegate race, is already leaving the primary season behind and training her fire on Trump:
We don’t have time to waste on Trump's fake solutions that won’t do a thing to help your families.https://t.co/b4aq8SVVAB
Most polling stations in Indiana, which straddles two time zones, close at 6pm ET, with the remainder closing at 7pm ET. In 2012, half the Indiana vote had been reported by 8pm ET, and 95% by 10pm ET, according to the Associated Press.
A very high rate of absentee ballots, which were requested in unusual volume, have been returned in Indiana, NBC News reported.
Wow—95% of the 294K absentee ballots requested in Indiana have been returned. That's in contrast to the 119,639 ballots cast in 2012.
It was a strange day on the campaign trail, even for the 2016 cycle, with Trump starting off by linking Cruz’s father to the JFK assassination and Cruz trotting out an old Trump quote about venereal disease. We’ll bring you a recap of that action shortly – or you can scroll through today’s Campaign Minute or enjoy Scott Bixby’s daytime live blog.
As usual, we’ll be tracking the results on our interactive maps tool and bringing you the headline returns here as soon as they come in. Do you think Sanders will pull off an upset? Is there any chance of Cruz doing the same? Wherefore John Kasich?
Here’s how the delegate races currently stack up:
Thank you as always for reading – and don’t forget to join us in the comments!
