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EU referendum live: Soros warns Brexit would make voters 'considerably poorer' EU referendum live: Soros warns Brexit would make voters 'considerably poorer'
(35 minutes later)
7.35am BST
07:35
Pressed on whether he would vote to join the EU now if Britain were not already a member, Nick Clegg told the Today programme that he would.
If you didn’t have the European Union you’d have to invent something pretty close to it.
We are tectonically, geographically in Europe – that’s not going to change in a vote on Thursday.
Why should we turn out back on something we have successfully created? … If it was the source of all of our problems, I don’t think we’d be so successful economically.
7.32am BST
07:32
Nick Clegg says the leave campaign’s focus on immigration is “the biggest con of all”:
Of all the fibs and nonsense I’ve heard in this campaign … the biggest fib of all is that they will cut immigration, when they have no plan to do so whatsoever.
Leave campaigners have no plan at all to bring immigration down in any meaningful way … it’s the biggest con of all.
They cannot even agree among themselves whether they would implement a new land border in Ireland.
Clegg says such a border “would have a devastating impact on peace”.
Remain campaigners need to be honest with voters about immigration, he says:
We just have to be candid with people that the largescale movement of people… is a fact of international life that you have to deal with … whether you are in the European Union or not.
The false prospectus of the leave campign [is] that immigration will disappear like the morning mist melting in the morning sun … it will not.
7.26am BST
07:26
Nick Clegg on the Today programme
Nick Clegg, the former Lib Dem leader who was also, of course, the deputy prime minister at the time ex-Cameron adviser Steve Hilton says No 10 was being told the migration target was “impossible” , has been speaking on the Today programme.
Clegg says he has “absolutely no recollection” of the meeting Hilton mentions.
But, he adds, the aim to reduce net migration to tens of thousands
was not a government target, it was an internal Conservative debate.
Clegg says the net migration target never made sense, because
You can’t control people leaving as well as those coming in.
6.59am BST6.59am BST
06:5906:59
Morning briefingMorning briefing
Claire PhippsClaire Phipps
Welcome to our daily EU referendum coverage, with just two days to go until polling stations open. I’m wrapping up the early news in our morning briefing and steering the live blog until Andrew Sparrow joins us. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.Welcome to our daily EU referendum coverage, with just two days to go until polling stations open. I’m wrapping up the early news in our morning briefing and steering the live blog until Andrew Sparrow joins us. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.
The big pictureThe big picture
George Soros – described as “the world’s most famous currency speculator” – has cast his speculative eye over Brexit and, in a column for the Guardian today, warns it would trigger a sterling fall worse than that seen on Black Wednesday:George Soros – described as “the world’s most famous currency speculator” – has cast his speculative eye over Brexit and, in a column for the Guardian today, warns it would trigger a sterling fall worse than that seen on Black Wednesday:
Too many believe that a vote to leave the EU will have no effect on their personal financial position. This is wishful thinking. It would have at least one very clear and immediate effect that will touch every household: the value of the pound would decline precipitously. It would also have an immediate and dramatic impact on financial markets, investment, prices and jobs.Too many believe that a vote to leave the EU will have no effect on their personal financial position. This is wishful thinking. It would have at least one very clear and immediate effect that will touch every household: the value of the pound would decline precipitously. It would also have an immediate and dramatic impact on financial markets, investment, prices and jobs.
Soros’ intervention comes after the pound made its biggest one-day rise for almost eight years on Monday, as markets sensed a shift back towards a remain vote.Soros’ intervention comes after the pound made its biggest one-day rise for almost eight years on Monday, as markets sensed a shift back towards a remain vote.
My colleagues Larry Elliott and Jill Treanor report on Soros:My colleagues Larry Elliott and Jill Treanor report on Soros:
He said that, as in 1992, there would be big financial gains for speculators who had bet on the UK leaving the EU but that such an outcome would leave ‘most voters considerably poorer’.He said that, as in 1992, there would be big financial gains for speculators who had bet on the UK leaving the EU but that such an outcome would leave ‘most voters considerably poorer’.
Soros said that unlike after Black Wednesday, there was little scope for a cut in interest rates, the UK was running a much larger current account deficit, and exporters would be unable to exploit the benefits of a cheaper pound due to the uncertainty caused by a vote to leave the EU.Soros said that unlike after Black Wednesday, there was little scope for a cut in interest rates, the UK was running a much larger current account deficit, and exporters would be unable to exploit the benefits of a cheaper pound due to the uncertainty caused by a vote to leave the EU.
It’s a theme that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will repeat – perhaps less dramatically – at a speech in Manchester this morning, at which he will warn wobbly Labour voters that leaving the EU could risk Britain’s economic stability and workers’ rights, hot on the heels of his appearance on Sky News last night (of which more later).It’s a theme that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will repeat – perhaps less dramatically – at a speech in Manchester this morning, at which he will warn wobbly Labour voters that leaving the EU could risk Britain’s economic stability and workers’ rights, hot on the heels of his appearance on Sky News last night (of which more later).
Meanwhile, the leave campaign leans on its own favoured theme: immigration. Steve Hilton, David Cameron’s former adviser, says the prime minister knew four years ago that his pledge – now rephrased as an “ambition” – to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands was impossible:Meanwhile, the leave campaign leans on its own favoured theme: immigration. Steve Hilton, David Cameron’s former adviser, says the prime minister knew four years ago that his pledge – now rephrased as an “ambition” – to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands was impossible:
We were told, directly and explicitly, that it was impossible for the government to meet its immigration target as long as we remained members of the EU, which of course insists on the free movement of people within it…We were told, directly and explicitly, that it was impossible for the government to meet its immigration target as long as we remained members of the EU, which of course insists on the free movement of people within it…
In the 2015 Conservative manifesto, the prime minister reaffirmed his commitment to the immigration target he had been told was undeliverable. When I saw that, I assumed this was either because he was certain he could negotiate a solution within the EU, or was assuming we would leave.In the 2015 Conservative manifesto, the prime minister reaffirmed his commitment to the immigration target he had been told was undeliverable. When I saw that, I assumed this was either because he was certain he could negotiate a solution within the EU, or was assuming we would leave.
No 10 told the BBC it “did not recognise Hilton’s account”.No 10 told the BBC it “did not recognise Hilton’s account”.
In Westminster, MPs gathered yesterday to pay tribute to Jo Cox, killed last week in her constituency, as the fund set up to raise money for three charities she supported passed the £1m mark. Cox’s friend and Labour colleague Rachel Reeves told the Commons:In Westminster, MPs gathered yesterday to pay tribute to Jo Cox, killed last week in her constituency, as the fund set up to raise money for three charities she supported passed the £1m mark. Cox’s friend and Labour colleague Rachel Reeves told the Commons:
It is ironic that after travelling the world to some of the most damaged, war-ravaged places, Jo died so near to her home. But she died doing the job that she loved, in the place that she loved, representing the people she loved.It is ironic that after travelling the world to some of the most damaged, war-ravaged places, Jo died so near to her home. But she died doing the job that she loved, in the place that she loved, representing the people she loved.
Leave.EU, the Ukip-backed campaign group, came in for criticism after its biggest donor, Arron Banks, admitted commissioning polling on whether Cox’s death would affect voting intentions. Banks told LBC:Leave.EU, the Ukip-backed campaign group, came in for criticism after its biggest donor, Arron Banks, admitted commissioning polling on whether Cox’s death would affect voting intentions. Banks told LBC:
We were hoping to see what the effect of the event was. That is an interesting point of view, whether it would shift public opinion … I don’t see it as very controversial.We were hoping to see what the effect of the event was. That is an interesting point of view, whether it would shift public opinion … I don’t see it as very controversial.
Jeremy Corbyn on Sky News: what we learnedJeremy Corbyn on Sky News: what we learned
The Labour leader underwent his first – and only – TV showpiece on the referendum on Monday evening and told us why he’s not a “lover of the European Union”:The Labour leader underwent his first – and only – TV showpiece on the referendum on Monday evening and told us why he’s not a “lover of the European Union”:
I’m opposed to the Transatlantic Trade Investment Partnership, which is being negotiated, largely in secret, between the European Union and the US because it would import the worse working conditions and standards from the US into Europe. I am also opposed to the way in which Europe shields tax havens – this country as well shields tax havens – and the way in which systematically big companies are exploiting loopholes in employment law.I’m opposed to the Transatlantic Trade Investment Partnership, which is being negotiated, largely in secret, between the European Union and the US because it would import the worse working conditions and standards from the US into Europe. I am also opposed to the way in which Europe shields tax havens – this country as well shields tax havens – and the way in which systematically big companies are exploiting loopholes in employment law.
But voting remain is the “rational decision”:But voting remain is the “rational decision”:
If we are to deal with issues like climate change, like environmental issues, you cannot do it within national borders, you can only do it across national borders. The refugee crisis has to be dealt with internationally not nationally.If we are to deal with issues like climate change, like environmental issues, you cannot do it within national borders, you can only do it across national borders. The refugee crisis has to be dealt with internationally not nationally.
Which isn’t to say he’s happy for things to stay as they are:Which isn’t to say he’s happy for things to stay as they are:
If we remain, I believe Europe has got to change quite dramatically to something much more democratic, much more accountable, and to share our wealth and improve our living standards and working conditions all across the whole continent.If we remain, I believe Europe has got to change quite dramatically to something much more democratic, much more accountable, and to share our wealth and improve our living standards and working conditions all across the whole continent.
And Europe – and Britain – needs to do more on the refugee crisis:And Europe – and Britain – needs to do more on the refugee crisis:
Every government across Europe has got to play its part in housing those refugees because Syrian refugees are just like all of us in this room. They are fleeing from a war looking for somewhere safe to go to, surely there has to be a humanitarian response, not the bigoted response of putting up a 32-sheet poster that says a group of desperate people are somehow or other a threat to us. No they’re not, they are no threat at all, the threat is the hatred that is put towards those people by those people that put up that poster …Every government across Europe has got to play its part in housing those refugees because Syrian refugees are just like all of us in this room. They are fleeing from a war looking for somewhere safe to go to, surely there has to be a humanitarian response, not the bigoted response of putting up a 32-sheet poster that says a group of desperate people are somehow or other a threat to us. No they’re not, they are no threat at all, the threat is the hatred that is put towards those people by those people that put up that poster …
I want to be there to argue that Europe has to have a different response. Look, if there was no European Union and instead you had 27 member states would there be any co-ordinated response or not? Probably not. Would there be any route out for those refugees? Probably not.I want to be there to argue that Europe has to have a different response. Look, if there was no European Union and instead you had 27 member states would there be any co-ordinated response or not? Probably not. Would there be any route out for those refugees? Probably not.
He isn’t arguing for restrictions on free movement (as some Labour colleagues have done):He isn’t arguing for restrictions on free movement (as some Labour colleagues have done):
If you restrict movement of labour across Europe then you are defeating the whole point of there being one market within Europe.If you restrict movement of labour across Europe then you are defeating the whole point of there being one market within Europe.
He doesn’t think voters are fed up with the campaign:He doesn’t think voters are fed up with the campaign:
There are a couple of days to go and my experience, and I have been involved in lots of elections over my life, that in the last two or three days when all the politicians have become exhausted with the campaigning, the public finally catch on and get interested in it. So we have got two days of intense interest, I hope.There are a couple of days to go and my experience, and I have been involved in lots of elections over my life, that in the last two or three days when all the politicians have become exhausted with the campaigning, the public finally catch on and get interested in it. So we have got two days of intense interest, I hope.
If Britain votes to leave, it won’t be Corbyn’s fault:If Britain votes to leave, it won’t be Corbyn’s fault:
I’m not going to take blame for people’s decision … I am hoping there is going to be a remain vote, there may well be a remain vote, there may well be a leave vote. Whatever the result, that is the result of the referendum, we’ve got to work with it.I’m not going to take blame for people’s decision … I am hoping there is going to be a remain vote, there may well be a remain vote, there may well be a leave vote. Whatever the result, that is the result of the referendum, we’ve got to work with it.
What we didn’t learnWhat we didn’t learn
What on earth “the establishment” is if it doesn’t include the leader of Her Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition:What on earth “the establishment” is if it doesn’t include the leader of Her Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition:
I’m not a member of the establishment, I’m a member of the Labour party, I’m the leader of the Labour party and I’m a Labour MP.I’m not a member of the establishment, I’m a member of the Labour party, I’m the leader of the Labour party and I’m a Labour MP.
The key exchangeThe key exchange
Sky News political editor Faisal Islam: On this issue you have some strange bedfellows now. The chancellor, George Osborne, told Sky News last week it’s the people on the lower incomes who will be hit first if there’s a recession, Brexit is for the richest in our country. Do you agree with the chancellor?Sky News political editor Faisal Islam: On this issue you have some strange bedfellows now. The chancellor, George Osborne, told Sky News last week it’s the people on the lower incomes who will be hit first if there’s a recession, Brexit is for the richest in our country. Do you agree with the chancellor?
Corbyn: That’s a very odd statement coming from George Osborne, I confess it’s the first I’ve heard of it so … Can I reflect on that?!Corbyn: That’s a very odd statement coming from George Osborne, I confess it’s the first I’ve heard of it so … Can I reflect on that?!
You should also knowYou should also know
I asked @RealGrumpyCat what she thought of #CatsAgainstBrexit. She wasn't impressed. pic.twitter.com/Gb4Sj2UGr5I asked @RealGrumpyCat what she thought of #CatsAgainstBrexit. She wasn't impressed. pic.twitter.com/Gb4Sj2UGr5
Poll positionPoll position
Contradictory polls all over the place this morning. An ORB poll for the Telegraph puts remain back in front for the first time in almost a month on 53% to leave’s 46%, among those certain to vote. A Times/YouGov poll, however, sees leave retain a lead of two points over remain, 51% to 49%. Which leaves the FT’s poll of polls precisely where it was yesterday: 44% apiece.Contradictory polls all over the place this morning. An ORB poll for the Telegraph puts remain back in front for the first time in almost a month on 53% to leave’s 46%, among those certain to vote. A Times/YouGov poll, however, sees leave retain a lead of two points over remain, 51% to 49%. Which leaves the FT’s poll of polls precisely where it was yesterday: 44% apiece.
Meanwhile, a survey by the Electoral Reform Society reveals that 16% of people – that’s one in seven – haven’t been contacted at all about the referendum: no leaflets, no phone calls, no emails, no door-knocks. Failure of democratic engagement or blessed relief?Meanwhile, a survey by the Electoral Reform Society reveals that 16% of people – that’s one in seven – haven’t been contacted at all about the referendum: no leaflets, no phone calls, no emails, no door-knocks. Failure of democratic engagement or blessed relief?
DiaryDiary
You can’t move for Labour politicians making the case for remain today, but the big set-piece comes this evening, with the BBC’s “great debate” at Wembley Arena.You can’t move for Labour politicians making the case for remain today, but the big set-piece comes this evening, with the BBC’s “great debate” at Wembley Arena.
Read theseRead these
BBC World News presenter Katty Kay writes of five common factors that could link a Brexit win to a Donald Trump victory:BBC World News presenter Katty Kay writes of five common factors that could link a Brexit win to a Donald Trump victory:
The forces of globalisation are causing havoc for European workers as they are for American workers. If you are a white working-class man (in particular) the combined effects of immigration, free trade and technology have made your job and your wages less secure.The forces of globalisation are causing havoc for European workers as they are for American workers. If you are a white working-class man (in particular) the combined effects of immigration, free trade and technology have made your job and your wages less secure.
Policy-makers in the UK and the US have singularly failed to address these issues in any meaningful way. If the Brexit camp wins next week, it could suggest the global anti-globalisation mood (if such a thing is possible) is stronger than we realised.Policy-makers in the UK and the US have singularly failed to address these issues in any meaningful way. If the Brexit camp wins next week, it could suggest the global anti-globalisation mood (if such a thing is possible) is stronger than we realised.
In the Wall Street Journal, James Mackintosh also considers the possibility of a sterling crisis:In the Wall Street Journal, James Mackintosh also considers the possibility of a sterling crisis:
If a fall in the pound turns into a downward spiral, the Bank of England could appeal to foreign central banks to help. But coordinated intervention would surely require the Bank of England to raise rates to help support sterling, too. This would be an extreme outcome, a true loss of confidence in the UK. Even those who worry about it think it unlikely, just not as unlikely as markets suggest …If a fall in the pound turns into a downward spiral, the Bank of England could appeal to foreign central banks to help. But coordinated intervention would surely require the Bank of England to raise rates to help support sterling, too. This would be an extreme outcome, a true loss of confidence in the UK. Even those who worry about it think it unlikely, just not as unlikely as markets suggest …
There is a far more likely outcome, which is also being ignored: The Bank of England might raise rates sooner than the market expects if Brexit happens – not because it is forced to by a sterling crisis, but because leaving the EU damages investment and restricts immigration, making Britain more inflationary.There is a far more likely outcome, which is also being ignored: The Bank of England might raise rates sooner than the market expects if Brexit happens – not because it is forced to by a sterling crisis, but because leaving the EU damages investment and restricts immigration, making Britain more inflationary.
Rachel Sylvester in the Times argues that “if the Remainers have played the politics of fear, the Leave camp have dabbled in the politics of hate”:Rachel Sylvester in the Times argues that “if the Remainers have played the politics of fear, the Leave camp have dabbled in the politics of hate”:
The Leave campaign has wrapped the monster in a myth that Brexit will deal with voters’ every concern, from immigration to inequality, struggling public services to unaccountable elites. It can’t and it won’t, which means that whatever the outcome of the referendum the anger will only grow. This isn’t just about Europe. Politicians have too often fuelled an incendiary and divisive atmosphere. The Conservative campaign against Sadiq Khan in the recent London mayoral election deliberately sought to play up differences between communities in London by linking him to Islamic extremists … In the Labour party, the politics of division are all too clear in antisemitism and ill-disguised misogyny among some on the hard left …The Leave campaign has wrapped the monster in a myth that Brexit will deal with voters’ every concern, from immigration to inequality, struggling public services to unaccountable elites. It can’t and it won’t, which means that whatever the outcome of the referendum the anger will only grow. This isn’t just about Europe. Politicians have too often fuelled an incendiary and divisive atmosphere. The Conservative campaign against Sadiq Khan in the recent London mayoral election deliberately sought to play up differences between communities in London by linking him to Islamic extremists … In the Labour party, the politics of division are all too clear in antisemitism and ill-disguised misogyny among some on the hard left …
Far from appealing to our better instincts, the referendum campaign – like too much of our politics – has sought to unleash the nastiest side of ourselves.Far from appealing to our better instincts, the referendum campaign – like too much of our politics – has sought to unleash the nastiest side of ourselves.
Baffling claim of the dayBaffling claim of the day
Worried about the possible consequences of Brexit? Don’t trouble yourself, says a column in Australia’s Herald Sun about the “sheer and utter rubbish” of the warnings issued by those opposed to leaving the EU. And why? Because:Worried about the possible consequences of Brexit? Don’t trouble yourself, says a column in Australia’s Herald Sun about the “sheer and utter rubbish” of the warnings issued by those opposed to leaving the EU. And why? Because:
Global warming hysteria has demonstrated all too clearly how (supposedly) very clever people can say (unqualifiedly) very stupid things.Global warming hysteria has demonstrated all too clearly how (supposedly) very clever people can say (unqualifiedly) very stupid things.
Shame about the Great Barrier Reef, though, eh?Shame about the Great Barrier Reef, though, eh?
Celebrity endorsement of the dayCelebrity endorsement of the day
Paula Radcliffe, who knows a thing or two about marathon campaigns, has tweeted her backing for staying the distance: “One of many reasons I am proud to be British AND European. #VoteRemain.”Paula Radcliffe, who knows a thing or two about marathon campaigns, has tweeted her backing for staying the distance: “One of many reasons I am proud to be British AND European. #VoteRemain.”
The day in a tweetThe day in a tweet
The Guardian’s own Tom Clark pops up in this podcast from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, but you might just enjoy the sentiment of the tweet:The Guardian’s own Tom Clark pops up in this podcast from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, but you might just enjoy the sentiment of the tweet:
🎧 British referendum polls are a mess: https://t.co/e8ZTMwEuBE pic.twitter.com/wVW56WCair🎧 British referendum polls are a mess: https://t.co/e8ZTMwEuBE pic.twitter.com/wVW56WCair
And another thingAnd another thing
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