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EU referendum live: David Beckham comes out in favour of remain
EU referendum live: David Beckham comes out in favour of remain
(35 minutes later)
10.04am BST
10:04
Boris Johnson’s LBC phone-in is over.
Here are over two of the key lines.
I can’t tell you the pressure that Project Fear and Remain put on senior business people not to articulate their views. One way or another, everyone has an interest in keeping friendly with government ... I do not wish in any way to be disparaging or critical of my friends in government, but it is well known that there is an operation in Downing Street. You will get a call from certain gentlemen and they will say ‘We want to continue to have contracts with you’, or ‘It’s very important we want to continue friendly relations’, there’s the honours system, all this kind of thing ... There’s a bit of leaning on. And the heroism of people therefore like [Anthony] Bamford and [James] Dyson [who have come out for Leave] is very remarkable.
I did not like it. It seemed to saying that these were bad people coming to our country. That seemed to be the message. And I felt profoundly unhappy with it.
9.45am BST
09:45
Q: Should George Osborne stay as chancellor, if we vote Remain or Leave.
Of course, says Johnson.
He says if we vote Leave, “all the fear will stop - people will realise it was all nonsense”.
9.44am BST
09:44
Johnson says the UK could have a free trade deal with the EU that would be beneficial to both sides.
There is a difference between free trade and the single market. The single market has morphed into a federal superstate, he says.
9.42am BST
09:42
Johnson says he refuses to accept Osborne has no contingency plans for Brexit
Q: George Osborne says he has no plan for Friday if he votes for Brexit. If that is true, it is disgraceful. He should resign.
Johnson says he has thought about this a lot. He thinks Osborne is not telling the truth.
He says Osborne is claiming there is no plan for Brexit because he is engaged in Project Fear.
9.33am BST
09:33
Johnson condemns Ukip’s ‘Breaking Point’ poster, saying it implied refugees were 'bad people'
Q: Can you in all conscience accept votes that have been generated by Ukip’s scurrilous campaign?
Johnson says Vote Leave has nothing to do with Ukip’s campaign. As mayor of London he fought for the rights of immigrants.
Q: What is your view of Ukip’s campaign?
Johnson says he only wants to talk about his campaign.
Q: What was your view of the Ukip poster?
Johnson says he did not like it. It made him profoundly unhappy. It implied these were bad people.
He says that it is important to take back control of immigration to neutralise extremism.
He says he does not like some of the “xenophobic undertones” in the Ukip campaign.
Q: So would Farage get a job in a Johnson government?
Johnson says there is not going to be such a government. But he does not say no.
Johnson says he does not approve of people who have been in the UK for a long time being kicked out of the country.
9.25am BST
9.25am BST
09:25
09:25
Johnson says it is interesting to see that Labour is now backing changes to the free movement of labour rules in the EU.
Johnson says it is interesting to see that Labour is now backing changes to the free movement of labour rules in the EU.
9.24am BST
9.24am BST
09:24
09:24
Q: I am tempted to vote for Brexit. But it will be in the EU’s interests to ensure we fail, because if we succeeed, it will be the end of the EU.
Q: I am tempted to vote for Brexit. But it will be in the EU’s interests to ensure we fail, because if we succeeed, it will be the end of the EU.
Johnson says it is not in the EU’s interests to give us “punishment beatings”.
Johnson says it is not in the EU’s interests to give us “punishment beatings”.
9.20am BST
9.20am BST
09:20
09:20
Q: If Britain votes for Brexit, will you back David Cameron to stay on as prime minister?
Q: If Britain votes for Brexit, will you back David Cameron to stay on as prime minister?
Yes, says Johnson.
Yes, says Johnson.
He says he thinks Cameron would be in a strong position to negotiate with the EU.
He says he thinks Cameron would be in a strong position to negotiate with the EU.
9.16am BST
9.16am BST
09:16
09:16
Johnson says he will apologise to public if Brexit leads to a recession
Johnson says he will apologise to public if Brexit leads to a recession
Q: If you vote for Brexit and the economy goes into recession, will you go on TV and apologise?
Q: If you vote for Brexit and the economy goes into recession, will you go on TV and apologise?
Johnson says of course he will.
Johnson says of course he will.
But he says he does not think London, or Britain, has anything to fear from coming out of the EU.
But he says he does not think London, or Britain, has anything to fear from coming out of the EU.
9.12am BST
9.12am BST
09:12
09:12
Boris Johnson's LBC phone-in
Boris Johnson's LBC phone-in
Boris Johnson, the leading Vote Leave campaigner, is hosting an LBC phone-in now.
Boris Johnson, the leading Vote Leave campaigner, is hosting an LBC phone-in now.
You can watch it here.
You can watch it here.
Asked about today’s comments from George Soros, Johnson says the Remain campaign’s “Project Fear” tactics have not worked.
Asked about today’s comments from George Soros, Johnson says the Remain campaign’s “Project Fear” tactics have not worked.
Johnson says it is better to pay attention to Anthony Bamford, the JCB boss, than George Soros. Bamford creates jobs, he says. He says Soros is just an expert in market speculation.
Johnson says it is better to pay attention to Anthony Bamford, the JCB boss, than George Soros. Bamford creates jobs, he says. He says Soros is just an expert in market speculation.
Johnson also cites James Dyson, who is also pro-Leave.
Johnson also cites James Dyson, who is also pro-Leave.
Q: So why don’t we hear more from these people?
Q: So why don’t we hear more from these people?
Johnson says there is a Number 10 operation to put pressure on people. He implies that people are told they will lose contracts if they do not support the government line.
Johnson says there is a Number 10 operation to put pressure on people. He implies that people are told they will lose contracts if they do not support the government line.
9.02am BST
9.02am BST
09:02
09:02
Andrew Sparrow
Andrew Sparrow
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire.
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire.
Following David Beckham’s decision to come out for Remain, it is worth recalling one of the conclusions that emerged from focus groups about the EU referendum hosted by the Guardian. My colleagues Heather Stewart and Anushka Asthana wrote up the findings, and here is one of the 10 things they learnt.
Following David Beckham’s decision to come out for Remain, it is worth recalling one of the conclusions that emerged from focus groups about the EU referendum hosted by the Guardian. My colleagues Heather Stewart and Anushka Asthana wrote up the findings, and here is one of the 10 things they learnt.
Barack Obama, who was wheeled out weeks ago by No 10, was viewed as convincing by remainers – but his involvement was resented by leavers. “Obama’s not even in Britain so what does he care, what does he know?” said one. But if telly naturalist or David Attenborough or footballer David Beckham were to venture an opinion on Brexit, our focus groups suggest the public would be all ears.
Barack Obama, who was wheeled out weeks ago by No 10, was viewed as convincing by remainers – but his involvement was resented by leavers. “Obama’s not even in Britain so what does he care, what does he know?” said one. But if telly naturalist or David Attenborough or footballer David Beckham were to venture an opinion on Brexit, our focus groups suggest the public would be all ears.
David Cameron has welcomed the endorsement.
David Cameron has welcomed the endorsement.
David Beckham is clear: we should be facing the problems of the world together and not alone https://t.co/oRuRB4PZgq pic.twitter.com/aDHdrlhZ1O
David Beckham is clear: we should be facing the problems of the world together and not alone https://t.co/oRuRB4PZgq pic.twitter.com/aDHdrlhZ1O
8.56am BST
8.56am BST
08:56
08:56
David Beckham backs Remain
David Beckham backs Remain
I’m going to avoid all footballing metaphors, although no one else will, and simply let you know that David Beckham has declared himself in favour of remain:
I’m going to avoid all footballing metaphors, although no one else will, and simply let you know that David Beckham has declared himself in favour of remain:
I’m passionate about my country and whatever the result of Thursday’s referendum, we will always be Great. Each side has the right to their opinion and that should always be respected whatever the outcome of the European referendum.
I’m passionate about my country and whatever the result of Thursday’s referendum, we will always be Great. Each side has the right to their opinion and that should always be respected whatever the outcome of the European referendum.
I played my best years at my boyhood club, Manchester United. I grew up with a core group of young British players … but we were a better and more successful team because of a Danish goalkeeper, Peter Schmeichel, the leadership of an Irishman Roy Keane and the skill of a Frenchman in Eric Cantona.
I played my best years at my boyhood club, Manchester United. I grew up with a core group of young British players … but we were a better and more successful team because of a Danish goalkeeper, Peter Schmeichel, the leadership of an Irishman Roy Keane and the skill of a Frenchman in Eric Cantona.
I was also privileged to play and live in Madrid, Milan and Paris with teammates from all around Europe and the world …
I was also privileged to play and live in Madrid, Milan and Paris with teammates from all around Europe and the world …
We live in a vibrant and connected world where together as a people we are strong. For our children and their children we should be facing the problems of the world together and not alone. For these reasons I am voting to Remain.
We live in a vibrant and connected world where together as a people we are strong. For our children and their children we should be facing the problems of the world together and not alone. For these reasons I am voting to Remain.
These are just the edited highlights (gah, sorry). For the full statement, see here.
These are just the edited highlights (gah, sorry). For the full statement, see here.
Updated
Updated
at 9.18am BST
at 9.18am BST
8.46am BST
08:46
Gove has conceded that during negotiations for a Brexit, the government would have no greater control over EU immigration, for as long as four years. He told the Today programme that in the meantime “we can change policy with respect to non-EU migration” – but pressed on why ministers had not already done so, he said:
I don’t want to criticise any other colleague.
But the net migration target of under 100,000 “was the manifesto commitment that we all stood on” – even though Steve Hilton has claimed this morning that David Cameron knew this target was “impossible”.
Gove told the BBC:
I believed and hoped that we would be able to secure a deal with Europe that would enable us [to meet the target].
I don’t blame him [Cameron]; I do blame the other leaders of Europe.
And asked whether he will quit should remain win out on Thursday?
I will do exactly as the prime minister asks me … I will reflect and I will decide what is the best course for me.
8.39am BST
08:39
Would the EU seek to punish British if it votes to go? Gove thinks not.
I’m sure there’ll be an element of pique on the part of one or two eurocrats but it is in their economic interests to come to a deal with us …
We are the second biggest contributor to the European Union – we have financial leverage.
Does any European leader agree that Britain will be able to get a better deal? Gove insisted yes:
Funnily enough, Jacques Delors agreed with me … he spoke with the honesty of someone who has left office.
If they’re in office then of course they want Britain to stay because we are a net contributor.
The European Union leaders … because they get so much money from the UK, don’t want to see that threatened … they follow the money.
If you vote to leave, they would follow the money.
8.35am BST
08:35
Turning to the negotiations that would need to start if Britain votes for Brexit, Gove insisted:
It certainly won’t be me as prime minister!
But whoever leads the talks, he said:
We’ll be in a position to secure a better deal than the one we have now.
8.32am BST
08:32
Michael Gove has been speaking on the Today programme. Asked about the warning from George Soros about a “Black Friday” if the UK votes to leave, Gove said:
The people will be in control. What happens in markets is a reflection of the underlying strength of the economy …
George Soros is an advocate of the single currency … he thought the single currency would be a good thing for Europe.
Gove insisted he had “never said we should ignore all experts” but those from “acronyms that got the single currency wrong”:
The truth is that economic forecasters like George Soros have got things wrong in the past.
He calls the EU a “misery-inducing, unemployment-creating tragedy”.
7.59am BST
07:59
We know, of course, that the pollsters failed to predict last year’s general election outcome, yet it’s difficult to ignore entirely the polls tracking the current campaign. But should we be paying more attention to the bookies instead?
Sean Clarke reports:
According to the opinion polls, Thursday night’s referendum will be tight: surveys generally showed the leave camp ahead until late last week, when the remain camp clawed back some ground.
But bookmakers, who have already taken in record volumes of bets on this vote, see things very differently. Across the leading purveyors of political betting, average odds currently hover at around 1/4 implying a 75% probability that remain will win. So who should you trust?
In the recent past the polls and the bookies have either been wrong together or right together. Why are they disagreeing this time? It may be that the bookies are persuaded that the status quo has a powerful attraction in referendum votes. Certainly, the financial markets seem less spooked than you would imagine if they were expecting Brexit.
Related: Should you trust the pollsters or the bookies on the EU referendum?
7.49am BST
07:49
Economist Nouriel Roubini – one of the few to have predicted the global financial crisis – has tweeted about what he believes would be the risks of Britain voting to leave:
Brexit would cause significant damage to the UK economy & to the employment & well being of Britons. The UK is much better off inside the EU
Brexit could stall the UK economy and tip it into a recession as the shock to business and consumer confidence could be severe
The UK - having large twin current account & fiscal deficits - may risk a sharp currency fall & a sudden stop of capital following Brexit
It’s become a fashion during this campaign for leave campaigners – including Michael Gove – to decry the interventions of experts, but Sky News political editor Faisal Islam says Roubini’s advice should be given some credence:
The expert who really did, famously, predict the 2008 crash, one of the world's best financial economists: https://t.co/HNj4QuQHRh
Roubini's view -significant as it explodes "economists are all EU-funded and uselessly failed to predict crash" meme https://t.co/QznOxAeiKn
7.35am BST
07:35
Pressed on whether he would vote to join the EU now if Britain were not already a member, Nick Clegg told the Today programme that he would.
If you didn’t have the European Union you’d have to invent something pretty close to it.
We are tectonically, geographically in Europe – that’s not going to change in a vote on Thursday.
Why should we turn out back on something we have successfully created? … If it was the source of all of our problems, I don’t think we’d be so successful economically.
7.32am BST
07:32
Nick Clegg says the leave campaign’s focus on immigration is “the biggest con of all”:
Of all the fibs and nonsense I’ve heard in this campaign … the biggest fib of all is that they will cut immigration, when they have no plan to do so whatsoever.
Leave campaigners have no plan at all to bring immigration down in any meaningful way … it’s the biggest con of all.
They cannot even agree among themselves whether they would implement a new land border in Ireland.
Clegg says such a border “would have a devastating impact on peace”.
Remain campaigners need to be honest with voters about immigration, he says:
We just have to be candid with people that the largescale movement of people… is a fact of international life that you have to deal with … whether you are in the European Union or not.
The false prospectus of the leave campign [is] that immigration will disappear like the morning mist melting in the morning sun … it will not.
7.26am BST
07:26
Nick Clegg on the Today programme
Nick Clegg, the former Lib Dem leader who was also, of course, the deputy prime minister at the time ex-Cameron adviser Steve Hilton says No 10 was being told the migration target was “impossible” , has been speaking on the Today programme.
Clegg says he has “absolutely no recollection” of the meeting Hilton mentions.
But, he adds, the aim to reduce net migration to tens of thousands
was not a government target, it was an internal Conservative debate.
Clegg says the net migration target never made sense, because
You can’t control people leaving as well as those coming in.
6.59am BST
06:59
Morning briefing
Claire Phipps
Welcome to our daily EU referendum coverage, with just two days to go until polling stations open. I’m wrapping up the early news in our morning briefing and steering the live blog until Andrew Sparrow joins us. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.
The big picture
George Soros – described as “the world’s most famous currency speculator” – has cast his speculative eye over Brexit and, in a column for the Guardian today, warns it would trigger a sterling fall worse than that seen on Black Wednesday:
Too many believe that a vote to leave the EU will have no effect on their personal financial position. This is wishful thinking. It would have at least one very clear and immediate effect that will touch every household: the value of the pound would decline precipitously. It would also have an immediate and dramatic impact on financial markets, investment, prices and jobs.
Soros’ intervention comes after the pound made its biggest one-day rise for almost eight years on Monday, as markets sensed a shift back towards a remain vote.
My colleagues Larry Elliott and Jill Treanor report on Soros:
He said that, as in 1992, there would be big financial gains for speculators who had bet on the UK leaving the EU but that such an outcome would leave ‘most voters considerably poorer’.
Soros said that unlike after Black Wednesday, there was little scope for a cut in interest rates, the UK was running a much larger current account deficit, and exporters would be unable to exploit the benefits of a cheaper pound due to the uncertainty caused by a vote to leave the EU.
It’s a theme that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will repeat – perhaps less dramatically – at a speech in Manchester this morning, at which he will warn wobbly Labour voters that leaving the EU could risk Britain’s economic stability and workers’ rights, hot on the heels of his appearance on Sky News last night (of which more later).
Meanwhile, the leave campaign leans on its own favoured theme: immigration. Steve Hilton, David Cameron’s former adviser, says the prime minister knew four years ago that his pledge – now rephrased as an “ambition” – to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands was impossible:
We were told, directly and explicitly, that it was impossible for the government to meet its immigration target as long as we remained members of the EU, which of course insists on the free movement of people within it…
In the 2015 Conservative manifesto, the prime minister reaffirmed his commitment to the immigration target he had been told was undeliverable. When I saw that, I assumed this was either because he was certain he could negotiate a solution within the EU, or was assuming we would leave.
No 10 told the BBC it “did not recognise Hilton’s account”.
In Westminster, MPs gathered yesterday to pay tribute to Jo Cox, killed last week in her constituency, as the fund set up to raise money for three charities she supported passed the £1m mark. Cox’s friend and Labour colleague Rachel Reeves told the Commons:
It is ironic that after travelling the world to some of the most damaged, war-ravaged places, Jo died so near to her home. But she died doing the job that she loved, in the place that she loved, representing the people she loved.
Leave.EU, the Ukip-backed campaign group, came in for criticism after its biggest donor, Arron Banks, admitted commissioning polling on whether Cox’s death would affect voting intentions. Banks told LBC:
We were hoping to see what the effect of the event was. That is an interesting point of view, whether it would shift public opinion … I don’t see it as very controversial.
Jeremy Corbyn on Sky News: what we learned
The Labour leader underwent his first – and only – TV showpiece on the referendum on Monday evening and told us why he’s not a “lover of the European Union”:
I’m opposed to the Transatlantic Trade Investment Partnership, which is being negotiated, largely in secret, between the European Union and the US because it would import the worse working conditions and standards from the US into Europe. I am also opposed to the way in which Europe shields tax havens – this country as well shields tax havens – and the way in which systematically big companies are exploiting loopholes in employment law.
But voting remain is the “rational decision”:
If we are to deal with issues like climate change, like environmental issues, you cannot do it within national borders, you can only do it across national borders. The refugee crisis has to be dealt with internationally not nationally.
Which isn’t to say he’s happy for things to stay as they are:
If we remain, I believe Europe has got to change quite dramatically to something much more democratic, much more accountable, and to share our wealth and improve our living standards and working conditions all across the whole continent.
And Europe – and Britain – needs to do more on the refugee crisis:
Every government across Europe has got to play its part in housing those refugees because Syrian refugees are just like all of us in this room. They are fleeing from a war looking for somewhere safe to go to, surely there has to be a humanitarian response, not the bigoted response of putting up a 32-sheet poster that says a group of desperate people are somehow or other a threat to us. No they’re not, they are no threat at all, the threat is the hatred that is put towards those people by those people that put up that poster …
I want to be there to argue that Europe has to have a different response. Look, if there was no European Union and instead you had 27 member states would there be any co-ordinated response or not? Probably not. Would there be any route out for those refugees? Probably not.
He isn’t arguing for restrictions on free movement (as some Labour colleagues have done):
If you restrict movement of labour across Europe then you are defeating the whole point of there being one market within Europe.
He doesn’t think voters are fed up with the campaign:
There are a couple of days to go and my experience, and I have been involved in lots of elections over my life, that in the last two or three days when all the politicians have become exhausted with the campaigning, the public finally catch on and get interested in it. So we have got two days of intense interest, I hope.
If Britain votes to leave, it won’t be Corbyn’s fault:
I’m not going to take blame for people’s decision … I am hoping there is going to be a remain vote, there may well be a remain vote, there may well be a leave vote. Whatever the result, that is the result of the referendum, we’ve got to work with it.
What we didn’t learn
What on earth “the establishment” is if it doesn’t include the leader of Her Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition:
I’m not a member of the establishment, I’m a member of the Labour party, I’m the leader of the Labour party and I’m a Labour MP.
The key exchange
Sky News political editor Faisal Islam: On this issue you have some strange bedfellows now. The chancellor, George Osborne, told Sky News last week it’s the people on the lower incomes who will be hit first if there’s a recession, Brexit is for the richest in our country. Do you agree with the chancellor?
Corbyn: That’s a very odd statement coming from George Osborne, I confess it’s the first I’ve heard of it so … Can I reflect on that?!
You should also know
I asked @RealGrumpyCat what she thought of #CatsAgainstBrexit. She wasn't impressed. pic.twitter.com/Gb4Sj2UGr5
Poll position
Contradictory polls all over the place this morning. An ORB poll for the Telegraph puts remain back in front for the first time in almost a month on 53% to leave’s 46%, among those certain to vote. A Times/YouGov poll, however, sees leave retain a lead of two points over remain, 51% to 49%. Which leaves the FT’s poll of polls precisely where it was yesterday: 44% apiece.
Meanwhile, a survey by the Electoral Reform Society reveals that 16% of people – that’s one in seven – haven’t been contacted at all about the referendum: no leaflets, no phone calls, no emails, no door-knocks. Failure of democratic engagement or blessed relief?
Diary
You can’t move for Labour politicians making the case for remain today, but the big set-piece comes this evening, with the BBC’s “great debate” at Wembley Arena.
Read these
BBC World News presenter Katty Kay writes of five common factors that could link a Brexit win to a Donald Trump victory:
The forces of globalisation are causing havoc for European workers as they are for American workers. If you are a white working-class man (in particular) the combined effects of immigration, free trade and technology have made your job and your wages less secure.
Policy-makers in the UK and the US have singularly failed to address these issues in any meaningful way. If the Brexit camp wins next week, it could suggest the global anti-globalisation mood (if such a thing is possible) is stronger than we realised.
In the Wall Street Journal, James Mackintosh also considers the possibility of a sterling crisis:
If a fall in the pound turns into a downward spiral, the Bank of England could appeal to foreign central banks to help. But coordinated intervention would surely require the Bank of England to raise rates to help support sterling, too. This would be an extreme outcome, a true loss of confidence in the UK. Even those who worry about it think it unlikely, just not as unlikely as markets suggest …
There is a far more likely outcome, which is also being ignored: The Bank of England might raise rates sooner than the market expects if Brexit happens – not because it is forced to by a sterling crisis, but because leaving the EU damages investment and restricts immigration, making Britain more inflationary.
Rachel Sylvester in the Times argues that “if the Remainers have played the politics of fear, the Leave camp have dabbled in the politics of hate”:
The Leave campaign has wrapped the monster in a myth that Brexit will deal with voters’ every concern, from immigration to inequality, struggling public services to unaccountable elites. It can’t and it won’t, which means that whatever the outcome of the referendum the anger will only grow. This isn’t just about Europe. Politicians have too often fuelled an incendiary and divisive atmosphere. The Conservative campaign against Sadiq Khan in the recent London mayoral election deliberately sought to play up differences between communities in London by linking him to Islamic extremists … In the Labour party, the politics of division are all too clear in antisemitism and ill-disguised misogyny among some on the hard left …
Far from appealing to our better instincts, the referendum campaign – like too much of our politics – has sought to unleash the nastiest side of ourselves.
Baffling claim of the day
Worried about the possible consequences of Brexit? Don’t trouble yourself, says a column in Australia’s Herald Sun about the “sheer and utter rubbish” of the warnings issued by those opposed to leaving the EU. And why? Because:
Global warming hysteria has demonstrated all too clearly how (supposedly) very clever people can say (unqualifiedly) very stupid things.
Shame about the Great Barrier Reef, though, eh?
Celebrity endorsement of the day
Paula Radcliffe, who knows a thing or two about marathon campaigns, has tweeted her backing for staying the distance: “One of many reasons I am proud to be British AND European. #VoteRemain.”
The day in a tweet
The Guardian’s own Tom Clark pops up in this podcast from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, but you might just enjoy the sentiment of the tweet:
🎧 British referendum polls are a mess: https://t.co/e8ZTMwEuBE pic.twitter.com/wVW56WCair
And another thing
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