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| Version 4 | Version 5 |
|---|---|
| Andrew Wilkie says he will support supply and confidence in Coalition government– politics live | Andrew Wilkie says he will support supply and confidence in Coalition government– politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 1.51am BST | |
| 01:51 | |
| Ben Raue | |
| Now we cross to Guardian Australia psephologist Ben Raue who has our latest seat count: | |
| At the moment we have called 72 seats for the Coalition, 66 for Labor and 5 for others. We believe that Gilmore is almost certain to go to the Liberal party and Cowan (where Anne Aly faced a tough campaign) to go to Labor. | |
| If Gilmore and Cowan go as expected, that leaves the Coalition three seats short of a majority, with five seats left in play. | |
| These five are: | |
| These are the possible outcomes: | |
| For a breakdown of what would happen in each scenario Raue has expanded here. | |
| Updated | |
| at 2.03am BST | |
| 1.41am BST | |
| 01:41 | |
| Fascinating movements in Tasmania where two senators could be elected ahead of their party colleagues thanks to below the line voting. | |
| Labor senator Lisa Singh and Liberal senator Richard Colbeck were both dropped down on their parties’ tickets to sixth and fifth respectively. These positions made it quite unlikely they would reelected to the Senate. | |
| Both moves were controversial and their supporters voted below the line so they could vote for them and then put their colleagues in a different order, according to the Daily Mercury. | |
| From the Mercury: | |
| Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said that as well as seat balance there was a question of which major party candidates were elected. | |
| “At present Catryna Bilyk is under threat from Singh in the event that Labor only win four, while David Bushby is under threat from Colbeck if the Liberals only win four,” he said. | |
| Tasmania traditionally had high below the line voting rates, a situation exacerbated by below the line voter rebellions against the preselection demotions. | |
| 1.35am BST | |
| 01:35 | |
| 'Not conceivable' that Bill Shorten will become prime minister | |
| Bridie Jabour | |
| Christopher Pyne’s colleagues may not be as emphatic about victory as he is but the view is certainly consolidating that Malcolm Turnbull will remain prime minister. | |
| Andrew Wilkie has released a statement saying “there is no conceivable way Bill Shorten will be in a position to form government”. | |
| Wilkie will not vote against supply or confidence in the (likely Coalition) government. | |
| To be absolutely clear, I remain steadfast that I will not enter into any deal with any party in order to help them form government. But nor will I be destructive, especially at a time like this when more than ever the country needs level heads and certainty. | |
| My focus now turns to doing what I can to help settle the situation down and foster stable government. To that end I repeat my position that I will continue to vote on parliamentary business on its merits, and consequently not support a vote against budget supply or confidence in the government unless clearly warranted, for example in a case of malfeasance. | |
| 1.30am BST | |
| 01:30 | |
| On that note, I’m handing back over to political-blog machine Bridie Jabour to bring you the rest of the political fun. Melissa Davey signing off from Melbourne, where Malcolm Turnbull is touring electorates and has plans to meet with Independent Cathy McGowan. | |
| .@TurnbullMalcolm has responded to @cpyne calling the election by saying the minister is naturally optimistic https://t.co/pxgSk5VHz2 | |
| Updated | |
| at 1.35am BST | |
| 1.26am BST | 1.26am BST |
| 01:26 | 01:26 |
| 'Christopher is entitled to his view that I am PM' | |
| Turnbull is giving a press conference in Melbourne, where he has been asked if Christopher Pyne has jumped the gun by claiming victory already: | Turnbull is giving a press conference in Melbourne, where he has been asked if Christopher Pyne has jumped the gun by claiming victory already: |
| Christopher is a very confident colleague of mine and he’s entitled to express his naturally optimistic view that I’m the prime minister. | Christopher is a very confident colleague of mine and he’s entitled to express his naturally optimistic view that I’m the prime minister. |
| Updated | |
| at 1.32am BST | |
| 1.23am BST | 1.23am BST |
| 01:23 | 01:23 |
| Labor is holding its first caucus meeting since the election today. It’s expected Bill Shorten will be endorsed as ongoing leader of the party. | Labor is holding its first caucus meeting since the election today. It’s expected Bill Shorten will be endorsed as ongoing leader of the party. |
| Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has told reporters Shorten has the party’s support: | Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has told reporters Shorten has the party’s support: |
| Is Mr Shorten the man to lead the party for the next three years? | Is Mr Shorten the man to lead the party for the next three years? |
| Yes. | Yes. |
| Are you conceding? | Are you conceding? |
| Conceding the election? | Conceding the election? |
| Yes. | Yes. |
| There’s still lot of tight seats. Obviously Malcolm Turnbull as the incumbent prime minister has the opportunity to form government and that’s the convention and the way it should be. That gives him the opportunity to form government. Whether majority or minority, I think he’s got difficult times ahead. | There’s still lot of tight seats. Obviously Malcolm Turnbull as the incumbent prime minister has the opportunity to form government and that’s the convention and the way it should be. That gives him the opportunity to form government. Whether majority or minority, I think he’s got difficult times ahead. |
| Don’t you think it will be seen as a concession by meeting to discuss Bill Shorten’s leadership? | Don’t you think it will be seen as a concession by meeting to discuss Bill Shorten’s leadership? |
| No, quite the contrary. I think we’re showing the stability, the unity of purpose we’ve shown for the last three years and we intend for that to continue. | No, quite the contrary. I think we’re showing the stability, the unity of purpose we’ve shown for the last three years and we intend for that to continue. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.26am BST | at 1.26am BST |
| 1.17am BST | 1.17am BST |
| 01:17 | 01:17 |
| On the Today Show this morning, a positively gloating Christopher Pyne described the Liberal party as “an electorate winning machine”. | On the Today Show this morning, a positively gloating Christopher Pyne described the Liberal party as “an electorate winning machine”. |
| We’ve won again. That’s our sixth victory out of eight in the last 20 years. You’d say that we are an election-winning machine in the Liberal party. Labor has won one election out of the last eight. There has been one hung parliament. | We’ve won again. That’s our sixth victory out of eight in the last 20 years. You’d say that we are an election-winning machine in the Liberal party. Labor has won one election out of the last eight. There has been one hung parliament. |
| Reaction from Labor's @tanya_plibersek to @cpyne's declaration the Coalition is an "election-winning machine" pic.twitter.com/z0oyumBh4r | Reaction from Labor's @tanya_plibersek to @cpyne's declaration the Coalition is an "election-winning machine" pic.twitter.com/z0oyumBh4r |
| 1.10am BST | 1.10am BST |
| 01:10 | 01:10 |
| Another sporadic cut to Turnbull, where he is still in the cafe, now talking about women engineers. | Another sporadic cut to Turnbull, where he is still in the cafe, now talking about women engineers. |
| It’s still very blokey. And that’s one of the big issues... not nearly enough women. It’s one of our election policies... supporting programs that encourages girls and young women to study science and engineering. Quantitative disciplines. It’s quite underdone. | It’s still very blokey. And that’s one of the big issues... not nearly enough women. It’s one of our election policies... supporting programs that encourages girls and young women to study science and engineering. Quantitative disciplines. It’s quite underdone. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.12am BST | at 1.12am BST |
| 1.04am BST | 1.04am BST |
| 01:04 | 01:04 |
| More brief and riveting scenes from Turnbull’s electorate tour of Chisholm thanks to Sky News. Someone is presenting Turnbull with some baked goods at what looks to be a cafe in Oakleigh. | More brief and riveting scenes from Turnbull’s electorate tour of Chisholm thanks to Sky News. Someone is presenting Turnbull with some baked goods at what looks to be a cafe in Oakleigh. |
| “So this is what kept the campaign going,” Turnbull says. Laughter. | “So this is what kept the campaign going,” Turnbull says. Laughter. |
| Someone offers him coffee. | Someone offers him coffee. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.05am BST | at 1.05am BST |
| 12.59am BST | 12.59am BST |
| 00:59 | 00:59 |
| The ABC and Sky just broadcast some very brief live coverage of the prime minister doing a street walk in Oakleigh, 15 km south-east of Melbourne, where the Liberal’s Julia Banks will replace retiring Labor MP Anna Burke following a swing against Labor in the electorate of Chisholm. | The ABC and Sky just broadcast some very brief live coverage of the prime minister doing a street walk in Oakleigh, 15 km south-east of Melbourne, where the Liberal’s Julia Banks will replace retiring Labor MP Anna Burke following a swing against Labor in the electorate of Chisholm. |
| Turnbull is told Oakleigh is “the epicentre of Greek culture in Melbourne”. | Turnbull is told Oakleigh is “the epicentre of Greek culture in Melbourne”. |
| You’re OK with the Greek, prime minister? | You’re OK with the Greek, prime minister? |
| Turnbull: “I can read a bit and speak a bit if I prepare, but I can read a bit of Greek. I studied Greek many years ago.” | Turnbull: “I can read a bit and speak a bit if I prepare, but I can read a bit of Greek. I studied Greek many years ago.” |
| Malcolm Turnbull greets new member for Chisholm Julia Banks in Oakleigh #ausvotes @abcnewsMelb @abcnews pic.twitter.com/kkIXp3gTbQ | Malcolm Turnbull greets new member for Chisholm Julia Banks in Oakleigh #ausvotes @abcnewsMelb @abcnews pic.twitter.com/kkIXp3gTbQ |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.03am BST | at 1.03am BST |
| 12.44am BST | 12.44am BST |
| 00:44 | 00:44 |
| Meanwhile, an update from those hardworking folks at the Australian Electoral Commission. | Meanwhile, an update from those hardworking folks at the Australian Electoral Commission. |
| An update on what's happening today and moving forward is available at https://t.co/1McL1EwHak #ausvotes #auspol pic.twitter.com/Cczkhf388q | An update on what's happening today and moving forward is available at https://t.co/1McL1EwHak #ausvotes #auspol pic.twitter.com/Cczkhf388q |
| 12.43am BST | 12.43am BST |
| 00:43 | 00:43 |
| Good morning, Melissa Davey with you from Melbourne, where Turnbull is meeting with independent MP Cathy McGowan, who retained the electorate of Indi. I’m sure there will be details from that meeting later on, but what McGowan has consistently said is that she won’t be doing any deals with the new government. So it will be interesting to see what kind of commitment, if any, he gets from her. | Good morning, Melissa Davey with you from Melbourne, where Turnbull is meeting with independent MP Cathy McGowan, who retained the electorate of Indi. I’m sure there will be details from that meeting later on, but what McGowan has consistently said is that she won’t be doing any deals with the new government. So it will be interesting to see what kind of commitment, if any, he gets from her. |
| Turnbull taking conciliatory approach to crossbench, says Coalition has a lot in common with McGowan, Katter + knows Xenophon well #ausvotes | Turnbull taking conciliatory approach to crossbench, says Coalition has a lot in common with McGowan, Katter + knows Xenophon well #ausvotes |
| 12.37am BST | 12.37am BST |
| 00:37 | 00:37 |
| I am stepping away from the blog machine for about half an hour and will hand over to my fine colleague Melissa Davey. I’ll be back before you can say “woebetiding”. | I am stepping away from the blog machine for about half an hour and will hand over to my fine colleague Melissa Davey. I’ll be back before you can say “woebetiding”. |
| Woebetidings is the word of the day, thanks Paul Keating. All the latest #politicslive with @bkjabour https://t.co/0mO6V9C8YL | Woebetidings is the word of the day, thanks Paul Keating. All the latest #politicslive with @bkjabour https://t.co/0mO6V9C8YL |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.38am BST | at 12.38am BST |