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| Bill Shorten expects Coalition to 'scrape over the line' – politics live | Bill Shorten expects Coalition to 'scrape over the line' – politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 4.43am BST | |
| 04:43 | |
| Malcolm Turnbull has given a brief press conference, answering just one question after giving a statement on the “thoroughly indepedent” Cathy McGowan. | |
| We’ve known each other for a long time. We’ve always had a good relationship ... she recognises the importance of a stable parliament and she can provide support, consistent with what she’s done in the past by supporting the government. That’s my government, on matters of supply and confidence. | |
| Turnbull is asked why the Coalition did quite well in Victoria and uses the opportunity to attack the Medicare campaign. | |
| I won’t run a commentary on it other than to say clearly there were swings against us in – there was a swing against us nationally but swings against us in a number of seats, obviously we’ve lost a number of seats. We are heeding that. I do have to say again, that, and I don’t think any of you would argue with this, the Labor party ran a shockingly dishonest campaign on Medicare. | |
| There are lessons to be learned for all concerned. We are taking very careful note of the outcome, we respect the judgment of the people. This election is not really about Michael or me or any of the members and candidates. It’s about the Australian people. We are determined to bring people together to ensure the 45th parliament is stable, productive and governing and legislating in the national interest. | |
| Updated | |
| at 4.52am BST | |
| 4.16am BST | 4.16am BST |
| 04:16 | 04:16 |
| We have a photo from the meeting between Cathy McGowan and Malcolm Turnbull earlier today. | We have a photo from the meeting between Cathy McGowan and Malcolm Turnbull earlier today. |
| McGowan has already said she is not going to do any deals, but one wonders if the Wangaratta hospital is going to get the funding Sophie Mirabella says it lost when she did not win Indi in 2013. | McGowan has already said she is not going to do any deals, but one wonders if the Wangaratta hospital is going to get the funding Sophie Mirabella says it lost when she did not win Indi in 2013. |
| Met w/ @TurnbullMalcolm agreed to continue supporting Gov of the day, proudly maintaining my independence #indivotes pic.twitter.com/OvxcjMWrmw | Met w/ @TurnbullMalcolm agreed to continue supporting Gov of the day, proudly maintaining my independence #indivotes pic.twitter.com/OvxcjMWrmw |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.21am BST | at 4.21am BST |
| 3.39am BST | 3.39am BST |
| 03:39 | 03:39 |
| Cathy McGowan will guarantee supply and confidence | Cathy McGowan will guarantee supply and confidence |
| Independent Cathy McGowan has met with Malcolm Turnbull this morning and in an announcement consistent with her previous position she says she will guarantee supply and confidence to whichever party forms government. | Independent Cathy McGowan has met with Malcolm Turnbull this morning and in an announcement consistent with her previous position she says she will guarantee supply and confidence to whichever party forms government. |
| She will vote on legislation on a case-by-case basis. | She will vote on legislation on a case-by-case basis. |
| I appreciate how important it is for this current situation to be resolved in a timely manner. The country wants stable and settled government to enable everybody to get on with their lives and business. As an Independent, I stand by my principles of no deals. And a deal is when you agree to do something in exchange for something else. | I appreciate how important it is for this current situation to be resolved in a timely manner. The country wants stable and settled government to enable everybody to get on with their lives and business. As an Independent, I stand by my principles of no deals. And a deal is when you agree to do something in exchange for something else. |
| I will continue to work with the government of the day and I will continue to consider each piece of legislation on merits, both according to my conscience and the needs of my electorate and the country. | I will continue to work with the government of the day and I will continue to consider each piece of legislation on merits, both according to my conscience and the needs of my electorate and the country. |
| She calls her discussion with Turnbull “solid” and said her preference is not to go back to an election. | She calls her discussion with Turnbull “solid” and said her preference is not to go back to an election. |
| We talked about professionalism in politics and how important it is for people to be able to trust each other and that’s certainly what I bring as an Independent, an open, trusting willingness to work with the government of the day to do the business of the country that needs to be done. | We talked about professionalism in politics and how important it is for people to be able to trust each other and that’s certainly what I bring as an Independent, an open, trusting willingness to work with the government of the day to do the business of the country that needs to be done. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.41am BST | at 3.41am BST |
| 3.31am BST | 3.31am BST |
| 03:31 | 03:31 |
| Bill Shorten also used his pre-Labor caucus meeting speech to defend the campaign on Medicare, a key platform. He calls Malcolm Turnbull’s election night speech an “extraordinary outburst” and the Liberals are blaming the Australian people for their “disastrous” campaign. | Bill Shorten also used his pre-Labor caucus meeting speech to defend the campaign on Medicare, a key platform. He calls Malcolm Turnbull’s election night speech an “extraordinary outburst” and the Liberals are blaming the Australian people for their “disastrous” campaign. |
| The Liberals think that a massive swing against them was a matter of perception alone, that somehow there weren’t enough negative Liberal TV ads and everything would have been right. They think it’s a problem with their message, their image. | The Liberals think that a massive swing against them was a matter of perception alone, that somehow there weren’t enough negative Liberal TV ads and everything would have been right. They think it’s a problem with their message, their image. |
| Mr Turnbull is not a person of substance. For him it is always just a matter of style. But Saturday cannot be put down by our opponents to a failure of communication alone. It wasn’t that the Liberals didn’t talk about Medicare, it was what they were doing to Medicare. | Mr Turnbull is not a person of substance. For him it is always just a matter of style. But Saturday cannot be put down by our opponents to a failure of communication alone. It wasn’t that the Liberals didn’t talk about Medicare, it was what they were doing to Medicare. |
| Freezing the GP rebate so that 14.5 million Australians will have to pay more to see their doctor. Raising the price of medicine by cutting the PBS, imposing new up front fees and charges for blood tests, mammograms, x-rays, diagnostic imaging. At every turn, undermining and hollowing out Medicare as we know it, pushing the price of healthcare back on to families and individuals. | Freezing the GP rebate so that 14.5 million Australians will have to pay more to see their doctor. Raising the price of medicine by cutting the PBS, imposing new up front fees and charges for blood tests, mammograms, x-rays, diagnostic imaging. At every turn, undermining and hollowing out Medicare as we know it, pushing the price of healthcare back on to families and individuals. |
| And then when these fresh offences added to their 40-year history of attacking and undermining Medicare, we know when the Liberal Party set up a taskforce to investigate privatising parts of Medicare, then we are entitled to query their motive, to question the outcome and to stand up for Australians. | And then when these fresh offences added to their 40-year history of attacking and undermining Medicare, we know when the Liberal Party set up a taskforce to investigate privatising parts of Medicare, then we are entitled to query their motive, to question the outcome and to stand up for Australians. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.52am BST | at 3.52am BST |
| 3.24am BST | 3.24am BST |
| 03:24 | 03:24 |
| Bill Shorten: Coalition will likely win | Bill Shorten: Coalition will likely win |
| It’s likely in coming days that the Liberals will scrape over the line but the combination of a PM with no authority, a Government with no direction and a Liberal party at war with itself, will see Australians back at the polls within the year. | It’s likely in coming days that the Liberals will scrape over the line but the combination of a PM with no authority, a Government with no direction and a Liberal party at war with itself, will see Australians back at the polls within the year. |
| We will fight for our positive plans in the 45th Parliament, we will respect the judgement of the people and be true to our policies and propositions upon which we sought the support, which we received. But we will be campaign-ready from this day onwards. | We will fight for our positive plans in the 45th Parliament, we will respect the judgement of the people and be true to our policies and propositions upon which we sought the support, which we received. But we will be campaign-ready from this day onwards. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.27am BST | at 3.27am BST |
| 3.22am BST | 3.22am BST |
| 03:22 | 03:22 |
| Shorten speaks to issues of diversity and division, and acknowledges that there are swathes of voters not supporting either major party. | Shorten speaks to issues of diversity and division, and acknowledges that there are swathes of voters not supporting either major party. |
| Grappling with the uncertainty of a transforming economy, a society where old norms and institutions seem less permanent than they once did and undoubtedly there are Australians who do feel left out, excluded, alienated from a political process which does not seem to speak to the issues in their lives. In such a climate, it’s easy for the extremists, for the people with the simple solutions to emerge and thrive, to foster division, to blame minorities, to demonise difference to appeal to the dark angels of our national character. This is not the Labor way. | Grappling with the uncertainty of a transforming economy, a society where old norms and institutions seem less permanent than they once did and undoubtedly there are Australians who do feel left out, excluded, alienated from a political process which does not seem to speak to the issues in their lives. In such a climate, it’s easy for the extremists, for the people with the simple solutions to emerge and thrive, to foster division, to blame minorities, to demonise difference to appeal to the dark angels of our national character. This is not the Labor way. |
| He seems among other things to be making reference to the election of Pauline Hanson and ensuing debate of how to handle her. | He seems among other things to be making reference to the election of Pauline Hanson and ensuing debate of how to handle her. |
| 3.19am BST | 3.19am BST |
| 03:19 | 03:19 |
| Bill Shorten addresses caucus | Bill Shorten addresses caucus |
| Unlike our opponents we fought this election as team the results of your hard work and there for all to see. | Unlike our opponents we fought this election as team the results of your hard work and there for all to see. |
| Bill Shorten gives the media a nudge before talking about an election fought on “Labor issues”. | Bill Shorten gives the media a nudge before talking about an election fought on “Labor issues”. |
| Our wise friends in the media told us we were wasting out time talking about Labor issues. We should be proud standing up for jobs, education, health and schools are considered Labor issues. | Our wise friends in the media told us we were wasting out time talking about Labor issues. We should be proud standing up for jobs, education, health and schools are considered Labor issues. |
| We should be proud that standing up for Australian jobs and apprenticeships is considered a Labor issue. We should be proud that education, schools, university and TAFE is considered a Labor issue. | We should be proud that standing up for Australian jobs and apprenticeships is considered a Labor issue. We should be proud that education, schools, university and TAFE is considered a Labor issue. |
| We should be proud building a first class fibre NBN, taking real action on climate change, a royal commission into the banks and delivering marriage equality that these are considered Labor issues. | We should be proud building a first class fibre NBN, taking real action on climate change, a royal commission into the banks and delivering marriage equality that these are considered Labor issues. |
| Then to big cheers: | Then to big cheers: |
| I’m particularly proud that saving Medicare is seen as a Labor issue. | I’m particularly proud that saving Medicare is seen as a Labor issue. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.52am BST | at 3.52am BST |
| 3.15am BST | 3.15am BST |
| 03:15 | 03:15 |
| Bill Shorten is making public remarks at a caucus meeting where the leadership will be spilled (as party rules dictate). | Bill Shorten is making public remarks at a caucus meeting where the leadership will be spilled (as party rules dictate). |
| He is going through key seats that were won acknowledging the new, and in some cases returned, MPs to cheers. As noted beside me it is kind of like a school awards ceremony where a whole roll of names have to be clapped and the enthusiasm starts to flag halfway through. | He is going through key seats that were won acknowledging the new, and in some cases returned, MPs to cheers. As noted beside me it is kind of like a school awards ceremony where a whole roll of names have to be clapped and the enthusiasm starts to flag halfway through. |
| When Anne Aly is mentioned, who ran in the Western Australia seat of Cowan where counting is still going, it gets a big cheer. He goes through formalities of thanking the leadership group. | When Anne Aly is mentioned, who ran in the Western Australia seat of Cowan where counting is still going, it gets a big cheer. He goes through formalities of thanking the leadership group. |
| What we’ve accomplished we’ve accomplished together. | What we’ve accomplished we’ve accomplished together. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.53am BST | at 3.53am BST |
| 3.09am BST | 3.09am BST |
| 03:09 | 03:09 |
| Bill Shorten is entering the Labor caucus meeting in Canberra to a standing ovation from his party. The party rules that the party leadership can be opened after a loss, however it is expected he will be endorsed at the meeting to remain on as leader. | Bill Shorten is entering the Labor caucus meeting in Canberra to a standing ovation from his party. The party rules that the party leadership can be opened after a loss, however it is expected he will be endorsed at the meeting to remain on as leader. |
| 3.05am BST | 3.05am BST |
| 03:05 | 03:05 |
| Melissa Davey | Melissa Davey |
| A little more from the prime minister’s press conference in Melbourne earlier: | A little more from the prime minister’s press conference in Melbourne earlier: |
| Australians have voted, we respect their decision. There are many lessons in that election for all of us, but for us, for the Liberal Party, we’re taking those lessons to heart very seriously and we respect the votes that have been cast and one way that we show that respect is by waiting for the counting to be completed or, you know, completed to the point where the decision is plain. | Australians have voted, we respect their decision. There are many lessons in that election for all of us, but for us, for the Liberal Party, we’re taking those lessons to heart very seriously and we respect the votes that have been cast and one way that we show that respect is by waiting for the counting to be completed or, you know, completed to the point where the decision is plain. |
| On his meeting with Independent Cathy McGowan he says: | On his meeting with Independent Cathy McGowan he says: |
| I’ll be having discussions with all of the cross-benchers and looking forward to that and the aim is to ensure that we have a good, open working relationship and a constructive parliament that is perhaps, if not united on every measure, at least united in the determination to serve the Australian people in a very constructive and positive way over the next three years. | I’ll be having discussions with all of the cross-benchers and looking forward to that and the aim is to ensure that we have a good, open working relationship and a constructive parliament that is perhaps, if not united on every measure, at least united in the determination to serve the Australian people in a very constructive and positive way over the next three years. |
| 2.51am BST | 2.51am BST |
| 02:51 | 02:51 |
| Lots of posts around this morning showing how close the two party vote between the Coalition and Labor party is nationally – it is obviously constantly varying but only a handful of votes in it. Margins of eight and 14 votes have been common all morning. | Lots of posts around this morning showing how close the two party vote between the Coalition and Labor party is nationally – it is obviously constantly varying but only a handful of votes in it. Margins of eight and 14 votes have been common all morning. |
| Eight votes in it. Eight. Nationally. #ausvotes #auswaits pic.twitter.com/yo7apA8Zyv | Eight votes in it. Eight. Nationally. #ausvotes #auswaits pic.twitter.com/yo7apA8Zyv |
| People are a bit overexcited about it. It does not mean the election will be won or lost on five votes. We do not after all operate under a direct election system. So five votes in one seat – say a safe seat – can mean something very different in another. | People are a bit overexcited about it. It does not mean the election will be won or lost on five votes. We do not after all operate under a direct election system. So five votes in one seat – say a safe seat – can mean something very different in another. |
| The count also excludes 14 seats where the leading candidate are not Coalition or Labor so the votes for major parties in those seats are not counted. | The count also excludes 14 seats where the leading candidate are not Coalition or Labor so the votes for major parties in those seats are not counted. |
| @AnnaVidot @davidlipson And it's completely wrong | @AnnaVidot @davidlipson And it's completely wrong |
| While the closeness of the two party vote nationally is interesting and worthy of note, the election is going to come down to the swing in key seats and perhaps some independents. It is not going to come down to eight, or 14, or five votes. | While the closeness of the two party vote nationally is interesting and worthy of note, the election is going to come down to the swing in key seats and perhaps some independents. It is not going to come down to eight, or 14, or five votes. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.52am BST | at 2.52am BST |
| 2.37am BST | 2.37am BST |
| 02:37 | 02:37 |
| I have had a quick dive below the line and I think dear reader raises a good point. How will Christopher Pyne go managing government business in a hung parliament? | I have had a quick dive below the line and I think dear reader raises a good point. How will Christopher Pyne go managing government business in a hung parliament? |
| The smiling Christopher Pyne has to be admired for his gall if nothing else. If he stays on as Coalition manager of Reps business he won't be smiling for much longer! Herding cats would be easier. | The smiling Christopher Pyne has to be admired for his gall if nothing else. If he stays on as Coalition manager of Reps business he won't be smiling for much longer! Herding cats would be easier. |
| It is possible he has the discipline and sense of humour to keep the cats in line most of the time. ‘Tis true though, not an enviable job (but remember the adage, worst day in government better than best day in opposition...) | It is possible he has the discipline and sense of humour to keep the cats in line most of the time. ‘Tis true though, not an enviable job (but remember the adage, worst day in government better than best day in opposition...) |
| 2.22am BST | 2.22am BST |
| 02:22 | 02:22 |
| The progressive response to the resuscitation of Pauline Hanson to the Senate has been messy. There has been many more attempts at nuance than when she was last in parliament, but it is messy nonetheless. | The progressive response to the resuscitation of Pauline Hanson to the Senate has been messy. There has been many more attempts at nuance than when she was last in parliament, but it is messy nonetheless. |
| One of the popular lines is that people should not be dismissive of Hanson as “just another racist” but try to understand the people who have elected her and why. Many people have tried to go beyond her racism to find what else (anything else!) she stands for and work with that, and the response to the responses from parts of the left has been “why should we tolerate a racist?” | One of the popular lines is that people should not be dismissive of Hanson as “just another racist” but try to understand the people who have elected her and why. Many people have tried to go beyond her racism to find what else (anything else!) she stands for and work with that, and the response to the responses from parts of the left has been “why should we tolerate a racist?” |
| John Howard has even joined the fray warning that dissing her only makes her stronger. | John Howard has even joined the fray warning that dissing her only makes her stronger. |
| Obviously, we still do not know how to take her. | Obviously, we still do not know how to take her. |
| Jeff Sparrow says it is not elitist to reject Hanson. | Jeff Sparrow says it is not elitist to reject Hanson. |
| Fortunately, we don’t have to choose between embracing elitism to fight Hanson or embracing Hanson to fight elitism. It’s perfectly possible to reject both One Nation and the anti-democratic snobs – to embrace instead a progressive mass-based politics. | Fortunately, we don’t have to choose between embracing elitism to fight Hanson or embracing Hanson to fight elitism. It’s perfectly possible to reject both One Nation and the anti-democratic snobs – to embrace instead a progressive mass-based politics. |
| Those who call for limitations on popular participation generally assume that the populace is incorrigibly bigoted. But that’s not necessarily the case at all – as a recent poll for the Australia Institute demonstrates. That survey revealed that 63% of respondents believed that refugees should be resettled within Australia. | Those who call for limitations on popular participation generally assume that the populace is incorrigibly bigoted. But that’s not necessarily the case at all – as a recent poll for the Australia Institute demonstrates. That survey revealed that 63% of respondents believed that refugees should be resettled within Australia. |
| 2.06am BST | 2.06am BST |
| 02:06 | 02:06 |
| In the event of a tie... | In the event of a tie... |
| 1) We have no Prime Minister.2) Taylor Swift is in the country.3) You know what must be done, Australia. | 1) We have no Prime Minister.2) Taylor Swift is in the country.3) You know what must be done, Australia. |
| 2.06am BST | 2.06am BST |
| 02:06 | 02:06 |
| Dominic Knight is very enthusiastic about the prospect of a second election. As the counting stretches out and the future fill with uncertainty, his solution: let’s have a do over! | Dominic Knight is very enthusiastic about the prospect of a second election. As the counting stretches out and the future fill with uncertainty, his solution: let’s have a do over! |
| This might sound like an exhausting prospect, and after a horrifyingly long campaign, it is. But if our footballers can pick themselves up at the end of a punishing season for a grand final replay, then so can our politicians. And with another election, at least there’s no prospect of Collingwood winning. | This might sound like an exhausting prospect, and after a horrifyingly long campaign, it is. But if our footballers can pick themselves up at the end of a punishing season for a grand final replay, then so can our politicians. And with another election, at least there’s no prospect of Collingwood winning. |
| 1.51am BST | 1.51am BST |
| 01:51 | 01:51 |
| Ben Raue | Ben Raue |
| Now we cross to Guardian Australia psephologist Ben Raue who has our latest seat count: | Now we cross to Guardian Australia psephologist Ben Raue who has our latest seat count: |
| At the moment we have called 72 seats for the Coalition, 66 for Labor and 5 for others. We believe that Gilmore is almost certain to go to the Liberal party and Cowan (where Anne Aly faced a tough campaign) to go to Labor. | At the moment we have called 72 seats for the Coalition, 66 for Labor and 5 for others. We believe that Gilmore is almost certain to go to the Liberal party and Cowan (where Anne Aly faced a tough campaign) to go to Labor. |
| If Gilmore and Cowan go as expected, that leaves the Coalition three seats short of a majority, with five seats left in play. | If Gilmore and Cowan go as expected, that leaves the Coalition three seats short of a majority, with five seats left in play. |
| These five are: | These five are: |
| These are the possible outcomes: | These are the possible outcomes: |
| For a breakdown of what would happen in each scenario Raue has expanded here. | For a breakdown of what would happen in each scenario Raue has expanded here. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.03am BST | at 2.03am BST |
| 1.41am BST | 1.41am BST |
| 01:41 | 01:41 |
| Fascinating movements in Tasmania where two senators could be elected ahead of their party colleagues thanks to below the line voting. | Fascinating movements in Tasmania where two senators could be elected ahead of their party colleagues thanks to below the line voting. |
| Labor senator Lisa Singh and Liberal senator Richard Colbeck were both dropped down on their parties’ tickets to sixth and fifth respectively. These positions made it quite unlikely they would reelected to the Senate. | Labor senator Lisa Singh and Liberal senator Richard Colbeck were both dropped down on their parties’ tickets to sixth and fifth respectively. These positions made it quite unlikely they would reelected to the Senate. |
| Both moves were controversial and their supporters voted below the line so they could vote for them and then put their colleagues in a different order, according to the Daily Mercury. | Both moves were controversial and their supporters voted below the line so they could vote for them and then put their colleagues in a different order, according to the Daily Mercury. |
| From the Mercury: | From the Mercury: |
| Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said that as well as seat balance there was a question of which major party candidates were elected. | Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said that as well as seat balance there was a question of which major party candidates were elected. |
| “At present Catryna Bilyk is under threat from Singh in the event that Labor only win four, while David Bushby is under threat from Colbeck if the Liberals only win four,” he said. | “At present Catryna Bilyk is under threat from Singh in the event that Labor only win four, while David Bushby is under threat from Colbeck if the Liberals only win four,” he said. |
| Tasmania traditionally had high below the line voting rates, a situation exacerbated by below the line voter rebellions against the preselection demotions. | Tasmania traditionally had high below the line voting rates, a situation exacerbated by below the line voter rebellions against the preselection demotions. |
| 1.35am BST | 1.35am BST |
| 01:35 | 01:35 |
| 'Not conceivable' that Bill Shorten will become prime minister | 'Not conceivable' that Bill Shorten will become prime minister |
| Bridie Jabour | Bridie Jabour |
| Christopher Pyne’s colleagues may not be as emphatic about victory as he is but the view is certainly consolidating that Malcolm Turnbull will remain prime minister. | Christopher Pyne’s colleagues may not be as emphatic about victory as he is but the view is certainly consolidating that Malcolm Turnbull will remain prime minister. |
| Andrew Wilkie has released a statement saying “there is no conceivable way Bill Shorten will be in a position to form government”. | Andrew Wilkie has released a statement saying “there is no conceivable way Bill Shorten will be in a position to form government”. |
| Wilkie will not vote against supply or confidence in the (likely Coalition) government. | Wilkie will not vote against supply or confidence in the (likely Coalition) government. |
| To be absolutely clear, I remain steadfast that I will not enter into any deal with any party in order to help them form government. But nor will I be destructive, especially at a time like this when more than ever the country needs level heads and certainty. | To be absolutely clear, I remain steadfast that I will not enter into any deal with any party in order to help them form government. But nor will I be destructive, especially at a time like this when more than ever the country needs level heads and certainty. |
| My focus now turns to doing what I can to help settle the situation down and foster stable government. To that end I repeat my position that I will continue to vote on parliamentary business on its merits, and consequently not support a vote against budget supply or confidence in the government unless clearly warranted, for example in a case of malfeasance. | My focus now turns to doing what I can to help settle the situation down and foster stable government. To that end I repeat my position that I will continue to vote on parliamentary business on its merits, and consequently not support a vote against budget supply or confidence in the government unless clearly warranted, for example in a case of malfeasance. |