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| Andrew Wilkie says he will support supply and confidence in Coalition government– politics live | Andrew Wilkie says he will support supply and confidence in Coalition government– politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 3.09am BST | |
| 03:09 | |
| Bill Shorten is entering the Labor caucus meeting in Canberra to a standing ovation from his party. The party rules that the party leadership can be opened after a loss, however it is expected he will be endorsed at the meeting to remain on as leader. | |
| 3.05am BST | |
| 03:05 | |
| Melissa Davey | |
| A little more from the prime minister’s press conference in Melbourne earlier: | |
| Australians have voted, we respect their decision. There are many lessons in that election for all of us, but for us, for the Liberal Party, we’re taking those lessons to heart very seriously and we respect the votes that have been cast and one way that we show that respect is by waiting for the counting to be completed or, you know, completed to the point where the decision is plain. | |
| On his meeting with Independent Cathy McGowan he says: | |
| I’ll be having discussions with all of the cross-benchers and looking forward to that and the aim is to ensure that we have a good, open working relationship and a constructive parliament that is perhaps, if not united on every measure, at least united in the determination to serve the Australian people in a very constructive and positive way over the next three years. | |
| 2.51am BST | |
| 02:51 | |
| Lots of posts around this morning showing how close the two party vote between the Coalition and Labor party is nationally – it is obviously constantly varying but only a handful of votes in it. Margins of eight and 14 votes have been common all morning. | |
| Eight votes in it. Eight. Nationally. #ausvotes #auswaits pic.twitter.com/yo7apA8Zyv | |
| People are a bit overexcited about it. It does not mean the election will be won or lost on five votes. We do not after all operate under a direct election system. So five votes in one seat – say a safe seat – can mean something very different in another. | |
| The count also excludes 14 seats where the leading candidate are not Coalition or Labor so the votes for major parties in those seats are not counted. | |
| @AnnaVidot @davidlipson And it's completely wrong | |
| While the closeness of the two party vote nationally is interesting and worthy of note, the election is going to come down to the swing in key seats and perhaps some independents. It is not going to come down to eight, or 14, or five votes. | |
| Updated | |
| at 2.52am BST | |
| 2.37am BST | 2.37am BST |
| 02:37 | 02:37 |
| I have had a quick dive below the line and I think dear reader raises a good point. How will Christopher Pyne go managing government business in a hung parliament? | I have had a quick dive below the line and I think dear reader raises a good point. How will Christopher Pyne go managing government business in a hung parliament? |
| The smiling Christopher Pyne has to be admired for his gall if nothing else. If he stays on as Coalition manager of Reps business he won't be smiling for much longer! Herding cats would be easier. | The smiling Christopher Pyne has to be admired for his gall if nothing else. If he stays on as Coalition manager of Reps business he won't be smiling for much longer! Herding cats would be easier. |
| It is possible he has the discipline and sense of humour to keep the cats in line most of the time. ‘Tis true though, not an enviable job (but remember the adage, worst day in government better than best day in opposition...) | It is possible he has the discipline and sense of humour to keep the cats in line most of the time. ‘Tis true though, not an enviable job (but remember the adage, worst day in government better than best day in opposition...) |
| 2.22am BST | 2.22am BST |
| 02:22 | 02:22 |
| The progressive response to the resuscitation of Pauline Hanson to the Senate has been messy. There has been many more attempts at nuance than when she was last in parliament, but it is messy nonetheless. | The progressive response to the resuscitation of Pauline Hanson to the Senate has been messy. There has been many more attempts at nuance than when she was last in parliament, but it is messy nonetheless. |
| One of the popular lines is that people should not be dismissive of Hanson as “just another racist” but try to understand the people who have elected her and why. Many people have tried to go beyond her racism to find what else (anything else!) she stands for and work with that, and the response to the responses from parts of the left has been “why should we tolerate a racist?” | One of the popular lines is that people should not be dismissive of Hanson as “just another racist” but try to understand the people who have elected her and why. Many people have tried to go beyond her racism to find what else (anything else!) she stands for and work with that, and the response to the responses from parts of the left has been “why should we tolerate a racist?” |
| John Howard has even joined the fray warning that dissing her only makes her stronger. | John Howard has even joined the fray warning that dissing her only makes her stronger. |
| Obviously, we still do not know how to take her. | Obviously, we still do not know how to take her. |
| Jeff Sparrow says it is not elitist to reject Hanson. | Jeff Sparrow says it is not elitist to reject Hanson. |
| Fortunately, we don’t have to choose between embracing elitism to fight Hanson or embracing Hanson to fight elitism. It’s perfectly possible to reject both One Nation and the anti-democratic snobs – to embrace instead a progressive mass-based politics. | Fortunately, we don’t have to choose between embracing elitism to fight Hanson or embracing Hanson to fight elitism. It’s perfectly possible to reject both One Nation and the anti-democratic snobs – to embrace instead a progressive mass-based politics. |
| Those who call for limitations on popular participation generally assume that the populace is incorrigibly bigoted. But that’s not necessarily the case at all – as a recent poll for the Australia Institute demonstrates. That survey revealed that 63% of respondents believed that refugees should be resettled within Australia. | Those who call for limitations on popular participation generally assume that the populace is incorrigibly bigoted. But that’s not necessarily the case at all – as a recent poll for the Australia Institute demonstrates. That survey revealed that 63% of respondents believed that refugees should be resettled within Australia. |
| 2.06am BST | 2.06am BST |
| 02:06 | 02:06 |
| In the event of a tie... | In the event of a tie... |
| 1) We have no Prime Minister.2) Taylor Swift is in the country.3) You know what must be done, Australia. | 1) We have no Prime Minister.2) Taylor Swift is in the country.3) You know what must be done, Australia. |
| 2.06am BST | 2.06am BST |
| 02:06 | 02:06 |
| Dominic Knight is very enthusiastic about the prospect of a second election. As the counting stretches out and the future fill with uncertainty, his solution: let’s have a do over! | Dominic Knight is very enthusiastic about the prospect of a second election. As the counting stretches out and the future fill with uncertainty, his solution: let’s have a do over! |
| This might sound like an exhausting prospect, and after a horrifyingly long campaign, it is. But if our footballers can pick themselves up at the end of a punishing season for a grand final replay, then so can our politicians. And with another election, at least there’s no prospect of Collingwood winning. | This might sound like an exhausting prospect, and after a horrifyingly long campaign, it is. But if our footballers can pick themselves up at the end of a punishing season for a grand final replay, then so can our politicians. And with another election, at least there’s no prospect of Collingwood winning. |
| 1.51am BST | 1.51am BST |
| 01:51 | 01:51 |
| Ben Raue | Ben Raue |
| Now we cross to Guardian Australia psephologist Ben Raue who has our latest seat count: | Now we cross to Guardian Australia psephologist Ben Raue who has our latest seat count: |
| At the moment we have called 72 seats for the Coalition, 66 for Labor and 5 for others. We believe that Gilmore is almost certain to go to the Liberal party and Cowan (where Anne Aly faced a tough campaign) to go to Labor. | At the moment we have called 72 seats for the Coalition, 66 for Labor and 5 for others. We believe that Gilmore is almost certain to go to the Liberal party and Cowan (where Anne Aly faced a tough campaign) to go to Labor. |
| If Gilmore and Cowan go as expected, that leaves the Coalition three seats short of a majority, with five seats left in play. | If Gilmore and Cowan go as expected, that leaves the Coalition three seats short of a majority, with five seats left in play. |
| These five are: | These five are: |
| These are the possible outcomes: | These are the possible outcomes: |
| For a breakdown of what would happen in each scenario Raue has expanded here. | For a breakdown of what would happen in each scenario Raue has expanded here. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.03am BST | at 2.03am BST |
| 1.41am BST | 1.41am BST |
| 01:41 | 01:41 |
| Fascinating movements in Tasmania where two senators could be elected ahead of their party colleagues thanks to below the line voting. | Fascinating movements in Tasmania where two senators could be elected ahead of their party colleagues thanks to below the line voting. |
| Labor senator Lisa Singh and Liberal senator Richard Colbeck were both dropped down on their parties’ tickets to sixth and fifth respectively. These positions made it quite unlikely they would reelected to the Senate. | Labor senator Lisa Singh and Liberal senator Richard Colbeck were both dropped down on their parties’ tickets to sixth and fifth respectively. These positions made it quite unlikely they would reelected to the Senate. |
| Both moves were controversial and their supporters voted below the line so they could vote for them and then put their colleagues in a different order, according to the Daily Mercury. | Both moves were controversial and their supporters voted below the line so they could vote for them and then put their colleagues in a different order, according to the Daily Mercury. |
| From the Mercury: | From the Mercury: |
| Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said that as well as seat balance there was a question of which major party candidates were elected. | Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said that as well as seat balance there was a question of which major party candidates were elected. |
| “At present Catryna Bilyk is under threat from Singh in the event that Labor only win four, while David Bushby is under threat from Colbeck if the Liberals only win four,” he said. | “At present Catryna Bilyk is under threat from Singh in the event that Labor only win four, while David Bushby is under threat from Colbeck if the Liberals only win four,” he said. |
| Tasmania traditionally had high below the line voting rates, a situation exacerbated by below the line voter rebellions against the preselection demotions. | Tasmania traditionally had high below the line voting rates, a situation exacerbated by below the line voter rebellions against the preselection demotions. |
| 1.35am BST | 1.35am BST |
| 01:35 | 01:35 |
| 'Not conceivable' that Bill Shorten will become prime minister | 'Not conceivable' that Bill Shorten will become prime minister |
| Bridie Jabour | Bridie Jabour |
| Christopher Pyne’s colleagues may not be as emphatic about victory as he is but the view is certainly consolidating that Malcolm Turnbull will remain prime minister. | Christopher Pyne’s colleagues may not be as emphatic about victory as he is but the view is certainly consolidating that Malcolm Turnbull will remain prime minister. |
| Andrew Wilkie has released a statement saying “there is no conceivable way Bill Shorten will be in a position to form government”. | Andrew Wilkie has released a statement saying “there is no conceivable way Bill Shorten will be in a position to form government”. |
| Wilkie will not vote against supply or confidence in the (likely Coalition) government. | Wilkie will not vote against supply or confidence in the (likely Coalition) government. |
| To be absolutely clear, I remain steadfast that I will not enter into any deal with any party in order to help them form government. But nor will I be destructive, especially at a time like this when more than ever the country needs level heads and certainty. | To be absolutely clear, I remain steadfast that I will not enter into any deal with any party in order to help them form government. But nor will I be destructive, especially at a time like this when more than ever the country needs level heads and certainty. |
| My focus now turns to doing what I can to help settle the situation down and foster stable government. To that end I repeat my position that I will continue to vote on parliamentary business on its merits, and consequently not support a vote against budget supply or confidence in the government unless clearly warranted, for example in a case of malfeasance. | My focus now turns to doing what I can to help settle the situation down and foster stable government. To that end I repeat my position that I will continue to vote on parliamentary business on its merits, and consequently not support a vote against budget supply or confidence in the government unless clearly warranted, for example in a case of malfeasance. |