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Surprise rise in retail sales as consumers shrug off Brexit fears - business live Surprise rise in retail sales as consumers shrug off Brexit fears - business live
(35 minutes later)
2.44pm BST
14:44
Wall Street opens cautiously
As investors await Fed chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, US markets are heading lower in early trading.
There is growing uncertainty over the timing of any US interest rate rise, and Yellen’s comments will be scoured for any hints. Meanwhile the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 12 points while the S&P 500 opened 0.18% lower.
2.26pm BST
14:26
Neil Wilson, market analyst at ETX Capital is decidedly underwhelmed at the prospect of Jackson Hole:
Don’t expect much from Jackson Hole.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic policy symposium is a serious, sombre affair. It is not a policy meeting, nor is it meant to drive expectations for future policy decisions. It’s a talking shop and we should take the goods on offer with a healthy dose of salt.
Markets are incredibly quiet this August (in sharp contrast to last year) so investors are latching on to anything they can, which gives this meeting a lot more attention than it probably deserves. Investors will hang on every word uttered by Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair.
...But Yellen’s habit of keeping markets guessing with alternately hawkish and dovish remarks should be kept in mind. Indeed what the meeting will highlight is just how hard it is for central banks to normalise policy after years of accommodation.
2.14pm BST
14:14
Economists taking part in a Reuters poll believe the Brexit vote will weigh on UK house prices over the next couple of years.
Average UK house prices are expected to rise by 2.8% in 2016, 1.3% in 2017, and 2.4% in 2018.
London property prices are forecast to increase by 2% in 2016, by zero in 2017, and by 2% in 2018.
2.05pm BST2.05pm BST
14:0514:05
Rebound in US durable goods ordersRebound in US durable goods orders
Some more strong data out of the US. Durable goods orders increased by 4.4% in July, following a 4.2% fall in June according to the US Commerce Department.Some more strong data out of the US. Durable goods orders increased by 4.4% in July, following a 4.2% fall in June according to the US Commerce Department.
Economists had forecast a weaker rise of 3.3%.Economists had forecast a weaker rise of 3.3%.
Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING, says the better-than-expected data do not alter his view that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at its September meeting:Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING, says the better-than-expected data do not alter his view that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at its September meeting:
Some marginally better than expected durable goods orders don’t change our view that a September rate hike from the Fed is difficult to support.Some marginally better than expected durable goods orders don’t change our view that a September rate hike from the Fed is difficult to support.
After two consecutive quarters of outright declines in US business investment, durable goods orders for July provide a first insight into how investment in the third quarter is shaping up. And our take on the figures is that the negativity is beginning to abate.After two consecutive quarters of outright declines in US business investment, durable goods orders for July provide a first insight into how investment in the third quarter is shaping up. And our take on the figures is that the negativity is beginning to abate.
But this is far from a big turnaround. The headline 4.4% month-on-month growth in July only just offsets last month’s fall, and the trend for core goods orders and shipments are still both negative.But this is far from a big turnaround. The headline 4.4% month-on-month growth in July only just offsets last month’s fall, and the trend for core goods orders and shipments are still both negative.
1.49pm BST1.49pm BST
13:4913:49
US jobless claims fall for a third weekUS jobless claims fall for a third week
Over in the US, the latest figures showed new claims for unemployment benefit fell unexpectedly by 1,000 in the week ending 20 August to 261,000.Over in the US, the latest figures showed new claims for unemployment benefit fell unexpectedly by 1,000 in the week ending 20 August to 261,000.
It was the third successive weekly fall, and a five-week low according to the US Labor Department data.It was the third successive weekly fall, and a five-week low according to the US Labor Department data.
Economists had forecast a rise to 265,000 new claims. Claims have been below 300,000 - a threshold associated with a strong labour market - for 77 weeks in a row. It is the longest stretch since 1970.Economists had forecast a rise to 265,000 new claims. Claims have been below 300,000 - a threshold associated with a strong labour market - for 77 weeks in a row. It is the longest stretch since 1970.
The four-week rolling average fell by 1,250 to 264,000 last week.The four-week rolling average fell by 1,250 to 264,000 last week.
Initial jobless claims fall to 261,000 (265,000 expected)https://t.co/hg2uzrj3KIInitial jobless claims fall to 261,000 (265,000 expected)https://t.co/hg2uzrj3KI
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.50pm BSTat 1.50pm BST
1.37pm BST1.37pm BST
13:3713:37
Sports Direct shareholder to vote against chairmanSports Direct shareholder to vote against chairman
Sticking with Sports Direct, Legal & General Investment Management says it will vote against the re-election of the retailer’s chairman Keith Hellawell at the annual meeting on 7 September.Sticking with Sports Direct, Legal & General Investment Management says it will vote against the re-election of the retailer’s chairman Keith Hellawell at the annual meeting on 7 September.
It would be the third consecutive year LGIM has voted against Hellawell’s re-election.It would be the third consecutive year LGIM has voted against Hellawell’s re-election.
It also proposes to vote against the re-election of all non-executive directors at the company.It also proposes to vote against the re-election of all non-executive directors at the company.
It follows a Guardian investigation last year that revealed Sports Direct warehouse workers were effectively being paid less than the minimum wage because of lengthy security checks at the end of shifts.It follows a Guardian investigation last year that revealed Sports Direct warehouse workers were effectively being paid less than the minimum wage because of lengthy security checks at the end of shifts.
Earlier this month Sports Direct said warehouse workers would receive back pay totalling about £1m after the retailer admitted breaking the law by not paying the national minimum wage.Earlier this month Sports Direct said warehouse workers would receive back pay totalling about £1m after the retailer admitted breaking the law by not paying the national minimum wage.
1.21pm BST1.21pm BST
13:2113:21
Sports Direct is back in the headlines after a major investor group spoke out about the retailer’s corporate governance failings.Sports Direct is back in the headlines after a major investor group spoke out about the retailer’s corporate governance failings.
The Investor Forum has 40 members and represents 27% of Sports Direct’s independent shareholders, including Legal & General, Aviva, Standard Life and Fidelity. It was set up two years ago and this is apparently the first time it has made public concerns about a company.The Investor Forum has 40 members and represents 27% of Sports Direct’s independent shareholders, including Legal & General, Aviva, Standard Life and Fidelity. It was set up two years ago and this is apparently the first time it has made public concerns about a company.
Governance failings are clearly resulting in declines in operating performance and long term shareholder value and, given the lack of progress and the broader impact on all stakeholders, the Forum now considers it important to make public its recommendations to the Sports Direct International board.Governance failings are clearly resulting in declines in operating performance and long term shareholder value and, given the lack of progress and the broader impact on all stakeholders, the Forum now considers it important to make public its recommendations to the Sports Direct International board.
The Investor Forum calls on the board and its founder Mike Ashley to launch an independent review of the company’s “entire corporate governance framework” at the annual meeting on 7 September. They must commit to implementing the recommendations of that review, it adds.The Investor Forum calls on the board and its founder Mike Ashley to launch an independent review of the company’s “entire corporate governance framework” at the annual meeting on 7 September. They must commit to implementing the recommendations of that review, it adds.
Andy Griffiths, executive director of the Forum:Andy Griffiths, executive director of the Forum:
It is highly unusual for the Investor Forum to consider it necessary to make public their concerns and recommendations in this way. In prior situations we have always managed to work privately with companies to create effective long term solutions.It is highly unusual for the Investor Forum to consider it necessary to make public their concerns and recommendations in this way. In prior situations we have always managed to work privately with companies to create effective long term solutions.
We do not take this step lightly and whilst we welcome SDI’s move to hold an open day, we still have not received an appropriate level of commitment to respond to investor concerns and, as a result, the usual options have been exhausted.We do not take this step lightly and whilst we welcome SDI’s move to hold an open day, we still have not received an appropriate level of commitment to respond to investor concerns and, as a result, the usual options have been exhausted.
1.05pm BST1.05pm BST
13:0513:05
Phillip Inman, the Guardian’s economics correspondent, has written a handy list of five problems facing central bankers as they head to Jackson Hole for the annual symposium.Phillip Inman, the Guardian’s economics correspondent, has written a handy list of five problems facing central bankers as they head to Jackson Hole for the annual symposium.
Here they are in short:Here they are in short:
Read the piece in full here:Read the piece in full here:
12.45pm BST12.45pm BST
12:4512:45
Net migration 327k yr to Mar, Immigration 633k,Emigration 306k, all similar to recent levels https://t.co/g6f11hmRTT pic.twitter.com/859BqlTEgkNet migration 327k yr to Mar, Immigration 633k,Emigration 306k, all similar to recent levels https://t.co/g6f11hmRTT pic.twitter.com/859BqlTEgk
Poland was the most common country of birth for non-UK mothers in E&W in 2015, Pakistan for fathers https://t.co/r6P9s4niS9Poland was the most common country of birth for non-UK mothers in E&W in 2015, Pakistan for fathers https://t.co/r6P9s4niS9
12.23pm BST12.23pm BST
12:2312:23
Spike in UK passport applications in run-up to Brexit voteSpike in UK passport applications in run-up to Brexit vote
Applications for British citizenship by EU nationals living in the UK jumped 14% in the run-up to the EU referendum in June.Applications for British citizenship by EU nationals living in the UK jumped 14% in the run-up to the EU referendum in June.
Figures from the Home Office suggest there was a rush for British passports as uncertainty built before the referendum.Figures from the Home Office suggest there was a rush for British passports as uncertainty built before the referendum.
The 14% rise in passport applications to 15,501 included a 26% rise in applications from Italians and a 9% rise from Polish nationals in Britain.The 14% rise in passport applications to 15,501 included a 26% rise in applications from Italians and a 9% rise from Polish nationals in Britain.
Separate figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that in 2015, one in eight people - or 8.6m - living in the UK were born abroad. It was a 3.5% increase, up from 8.3m in 2014.Separate figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that in 2015, one in eight people - or 8.6m - living in the UK were born abroad. It was a 3.5% increase, up from 8.3m in 2014.
5 areas in London have over 50% residents born outside the UK https://t.co/DCR8IBnAaq5 areas in London have over 50% residents born outside the UK https://t.co/DCR8IBnAaq
Annual net migration to Britain fell by 9,000 to 327,000 in the 12 months to March 2016.Annual net migration to Britain fell by 9,000 to 327,000 in the 12 months to March 2016.
12.03pm BST12.03pm BST
12:0312:03
Oil falls below $49 a barrelOil falls below $49 a barrel
The price of Brent crude oil has fallen below $49 a barrel, and is currently down 0.2% at $48.94.The price of Brent crude oil has fallen below $49 a barrel, and is currently down 0.2% at $48.94.
Prices are under pressure as hopes fade that oil producing countries will reach a deal to limit production, and on the latest evidence that stocks are rising in the US.Prices are under pressure as hopes fade that oil producing countries will reach a deal to limit production, and on the latest evidence that stocks are rising in the US.
US government data published on Thursday showed weekly crude stocks rose by 2.5m barrels to 523.59m. Analysts had expected the figures from the Energy Information Administration to show a 0.5m fall.US government data published on Thursday showed weekly crude stocks rose by 2.5m barrels to 523.59m. Analysts had expected the figures from the Energy Information Administration to show a 0.5m fall.
11.55am BST11.55am BST
11:5511:55
Pound falls against dollar and euroPound falls against dollar and euro
The pound is coming under some pressure.The pound is coming under some pressure.
It is down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.32, and down 0.5% against the euro at €1.1688.It is down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.32, and down 0.5% against the euro at €1.1688.
11.51am BST11.51am BST
11:5111:51
Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics says the strong UK retail sales reported by the CBI won’t last as the impact of the Brexit vote starts to creep into the data:Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics says the strong UK retail sales reported by the CBI won’t last as the impact of the Brexit vote starts to creep into the data:
With labour market conditions likely to deteriorate and rising inflation set to undermine real wage growth, it would be fairly surprising if retail sales growth didn’t slow at all in the aftermath of the leave vote.With labour market conditions likely to deteriorate and rising inflation set to undermine real wage growth, it would be fairly surprising if retail sales growth didn’t slow at all in the aftermath of the leave vote.
It shouldn’t be too dire for retail sales though, she adds:It shouldn’t be too dire for retail sales though, she adds:
We think that other supportive factors – including low interest rates – should prevent household purchases from slowing too sharply. What’s more, the upbeat tone of the forward-looking indicators provide us with some reassurance that we’re not likely to see a marked collapse in consumer spending ahead.We think that other supportive factors – including low interest rates – should prevent household purchases from slowing too sharply. What’s more, the upbeat tone of the forward-looking indicators provide us with some reassurance that we’re not likely to see a marked collapse in consumer spending ahead.
11.15am BST11.15am BST
11:1511:15
CBI: UK retail sales surprisingly strong in AugustCBI: UK retail sales surprisingly strong in August
There is no sign of Brexit uncertainty weighing on consumer confidence in the CBI’s latest retail survey.There is no sign of Brexit uncertainty weighing on consumer confidence in the CBI’s latest retail survey.
Shoppers were encouraged to hit the high streets by the sunny weather, shrugging off any Brexit fears.Shoppers were encouraged to hit the high streets by the sunny weather, shrugging off any Brexit fears.
Specifically, 35% of retailers said sales volumes were up in August compared with a year earlier, while 26% said they were down. It gave a balance of +9%, rebounding from -14% in July.Specifically, 35% of retailers said sales volumes were up in August compared with a year earlier, while 26% said they were down. It gave a balance of +9%, rebounding from -14% in July.
It was far better than the -12% predicted by retailers.It was far better than the -12% predicted by retailers.
Anna Leach, CBI head of economic analysis says it’s not all good news:Anna Leach, CBI head of economic analysis says it’s not all good news:
The summer weather has brought shoppers out onto the high street with retailers reporting that sales growth has risen, outdoing expectations, although firms do expect sales growth to ease next month.The summer weather has brought shoppers out onto the high street with retailers reporting that sales growth has risen, outdoing expectations, although firms do expect sales growth to ease next month.
While the fall in sterling has boosted visitor numbers to the UK, it is likely to push up the price of imported goods over time which will mean households will be more likely to rein back spending on non-essentials.While the fall in sterling has boosted visitor numbers to the UK, it is likely to push up the price of imported goods over time which will mean households will be more likely to rein back spending on non-essentials.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.33am BSTat 11.33am BST
11.04am BST11.04am BST
11:0411:04
And we’re back...And we’re back...