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| Surprise rise in retail sales as consumers shrug off Brexit fears - business live | Surprise rise in retail sales as consumers shrug off Brexit fears - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 5.02pm BST | |
| 17:02 | |
| Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, adds his voice to those expecting a US rate rise in December: | |
| Esther George of the Kansas Fed gave markets something to chew over, with yet another hawkish comment coming in a long line of Fed members keen to talk about higher rates. After appearances from Dudley and Fischer last week, today’s input from voting member George adds yet another voice to the increasingly deafening push for a rate hike in the coming months. With the election looking unpredictable, the likeliness is that members will see December as the month to press the button once more, one year on from the contentious 2015 rise. It is hard to see Janet Yellen delivering anything other than a relatively hawkish outlook tomorrow [at Jackson Hole] and with the dollar having suffered heavily in recent weeks, tomorrow could be a turning point for foreign exchange markets. | |
| 4.08pm BST | 4.08pm BST |
| 16:08 | 16:08 |
| Another comment suggesting that the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers in the US could be a damp squib, despite expectations that Fed chair Janet Yellen could hint at future rate rises. David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spreadco, said: | Another comment suggesting that the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers in the US could be a damp squib, despite expectations that Fed chair Janet Yellen could hint at future rate rises. David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spreadco, said: |
| Investors continue to hold back from taking on additional market exposure ahead of tomorrow’s speech from Janet Yellen at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Few expect the Fed Chairman to say anything explicit about the likelihood or timing of what would be the US central bank’s first rate hike since December last year. Nevertheless, there are hopes that she may give some clues as to the Fed’s thinking over the state of the US economy, and indeed any risks facing the global economy as well. | Investors continue to hold back from taking on additional market exposure ahead of tomorrow’s speech from Janet Yellen at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Few expect the Fed Chairman to say anything explicit about the likelihood or timing of what would be the US central bank’s first rate hike since December last year. Nevertheless, there are hopes that she may give some clues as to the Fed’s thinking over the state of the US economy, and indeed any risks facing the global economy as well. |
| Last week we heard hawkish rhetoric from three Fed members. Then on Sunday Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer provided an upbeat outlook for the US economy saying that he expected growth to pick up following a particularly weak second quarter. Not only that, but he said that the Fed’s targets for inflation and unemployment (the dual mandate) were close to being hit. If Yellen is similarly upbeat in her speech tomorrow, then investors will price in an increased possibility of a September hike. | Last week we heard hawkish rhetoric from three Fed members. Then on Sunday Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer provided an upbeat outlook for the US economy saying that he expected growth to pick up following a particularly weak second quarter. Not only that, but he said that the Fed’s targets for inflation and unemployment (the dual mandate) were close to being hit. If Yellen is similarly upbeat in her speech tomorrow, then investors will price in an increased possibility of a September hike. |
| But despite all this chatter and speculation, it seems unlikely that Yellen will want to paint herself into a corner over the future direction of US monetary policy. | But despite all this chatter and speculation, it seems unlikely that Yellen will want to paint herself into a corner over the future direction of US monetary policy. |
| Consequently, it could be that there’s little of substance in the speech. While we’ve had a clutch of Fed-heads out there trying to persuade investors that September is still “live” when it comes to a rate hike, the minutes from the last meeting in July showed that only one out of ten FOMC-voting members was in favour of tightening monetary policy. In addition, we’ll get a stack of fresh economic data ahead of the Fed’s next meeting, including Non-Farm Payrolls, Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs and inflation numbers. There’s really no point in committing to any course of action until the Fed sees these reports. | Consequently, it could be that there’s little of substance in the speech. While we’ve had a clutch of Fed-heads out there trying to persuade investors that September is still “live” when it comes to a rate hike, the minutes from the last meeting in July showed that only one out of ten FOMC-voting members was in favour of tightening monetary policy. In addition, we’ll get a stack of fresh economic data ahead of the Fed’s next meeting, including Non-Farm Payrolls, Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs and inflation numbers. There’s really no point in committing to any course of action until the Fed sees these reports. |
| Finally, I don’t believe that the FOMC has the faintest idea what they should do at the next meeting. And unfortunately we now have a central bank which pays too much attention to stock market movements and appears to relish its ability to influence short-term investor behaviour. | Finally, I don’t believe that the FOMC has the faintest idea what they should do at the next meeting. And unfortunately we now have a central bank which pays too much attention to stock market movements and appears to relish its ability to influence short-term investor behaviour. |
| Overall, I think there’s just too much importance being attached to this speech. Jackson Hole was a fairly obscure event in years gone by. It only attained its current significance when Ben Bernanke used it as a forum for market manipulation in the wake of the 2008/9 financial crisis. It would be better for all if it went back to being a boring conference for boring people. | Overall, I think there’s just too much importance being attached to this speech. Jackson Hole was a fairly obscure event in years gone by. It only attained its current significance when Ben Bernanke used it as a forum for market manipulation in the wake of the 2008/9 financial crisis. It would be better for all if it went back to being a boring conference for boring people. |
| 3.33pm BST | 3.33pm BST |
| 15:33 | 15:33 |
| Back with the UK, and the strong retail sales figures from the CBI back up the idea that any negative effects of Brexit on the economy will only appear slowly, writes economic editor Larry Elliott: | Back with the UK, and the strong retail sales figures from the CBI back up the idea that any negative effects of Brexit on the economy will only appear slowly, writes economic editor Larry Elliott: |
| 3.16pm BST | 3.16pm BST |
| 15:16 | 15:16 |
| US rates could rise shortly - Fed board member | US rates could rise shortly - Fed board member |
| While we wait for Fed chair Janet Yellen on Friday, and any hints she gives on US interest rates, there is at least one board member of the US central bank suggesting a rise could be imminent. | While we wait for Fed chair Janet Yellen on Friday, and any hints she gives on US interest rates, there is at least one board member of the US central bank suggesting a rise could be imminent. |
| Speaking on CNBC, Dallas Federal Reserve president Robert Kaplan said the bank should be able to hike rates in the not too distant future, and the case for a rise was strengthening. | Speaking on CNBC, Dallas Federal Reserve president Robert Kaplan said the bank should be able to hike rates in the not too distant future, and the case for a rise was strengthening. |
| He said progress was being made on employment and - more slowly - inflation. | He said progress was being made on employment and - more slowly - inflation. |
| Fed's Kaplan on @CNBC I'm focused on fundamental drivers; case for tightening is strengthening; progress on jobs front; moving toward hike | Fed's Kaplan on @CNBC I'm focused on fundamental drivers; case for tightening is strengthening; progress on jobs front; moving toward hike |
| Live now on @CNBC » Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan live in Jackson Hole, Wyoming with @SteveLiesman. pic.twitter.com/PQH392fZDL | Live now on @CNBC » Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan live in Jackson Hole, Wyoming with @SteveLiesman. pic.twitter.com/PQH392fZDL |
| 2.59pm BST | 2.59pm BST |
| 14:59 | 14:59 |
| The latest PMI data means a US rate rise in September is unlikely but could signal a move in December, said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at Markit: | The latest PMI data means a US rate rise in September is unlikely but could signal a move in December, said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at Markit: |
| The ongoing lacklustre economic growth signalled by the flash PMI suggests GDP growth is failing to accelerate in the third quarter from the weak 1.2% pace seen in the second quarter. | The ongoing lacklustre economic growth signalled by the flash PMI suggests GDP growth is failing to accelerate in the third quarter from the weak 1.2% pace seen in the second quarter. |
| Historical comparisons indicate that the PMI is signalling an annualised GDP growth rate of just under 1% in the third quarter, based on the data for July and August. | Historical comparisons indicate that the PMI is signalling an annualised GDP growth rate of just under 1% in the third quarter, based on the data for July and August. |
| With job creation also waning alongside subdued price pressures (the August PMI is consistent with non-farm payrolls rising by just under 130,000), the survey data will fuel expectations that the Fed will be in no rush to tighten policy again. | With job creation also waning alongside subdued price pressures (the August PMI is consistent with non-farm payrolls rising by just under 130,000), the survey data will fuel expectations that the Fed will be in no rush to tighten policy again. |
| However, as anecdotal evidence from the survey suggests that business activity is being dampened by uncertainty due to the upcoming presidential election, there’s a good chance that the economy will pick up speed again after the vote, leaving a December rate hike on the table. | However, as anecdotal evidence from the survey suggests that business activity is being dampened by uncertainty due to the upcoming presidential election, there’s a good chance that the economy will pick up speed again after the vote, leaving a December rate hike on the table. |
| Markit PMI data accurately predicted weak US GDP in Q1 & Q2 and now point to similar weak Q3 https://t.co/ekJo4Q1TuC pic.twitter.com/Q7nxVoZvWD | Markit PMI data accurately predicted weak US GDP in Q1 & Q2 and now point to similar weak Q3 https://t.co/ekJo4Q1TuC pic.twitter.com/Q7nxVoZvWD |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.01pm BST | at 3.01pm BST |
| 2.57pm BST | 2.57pm BST |
| 14:57 | 14:57 |
| After the better than expected US durable goods and jobless claims figures, a service sector survey for August has missed forecasts. | After the better than expected US durable goods and jobless claims figures, a service sector survey for August has missed forecasts. |
| The IHS Markit service sector initial PMI came in at 50.9, down from 51.4 in July and below forecasts of 52. This was the weakest rise in services activity since February. Markit said: | The IHS Markit service sector initial PMI came in at 50.9, down from 51.4 in July and below forecasts of 52. This was the weakest rise in services activity since February. Markit said: |
| U.S. service providers indicated another month of lacklustre growth in August, with business activity, new orders and employment all rising at a slower pace than in July. Survey respondents generally cited subdued underlying demand conditions and uncertainty ahead of the presidential election as factors that had dampened growth in August. Nonetheless, the balance of service sector firms expecting a rise in business activity over the year ahead remained well above the survey-record low seen in June. | U.S. service providers indicated another month of lacklustre growth in August, with business activity, new orders and employment all rising at a slower pace than in July. Survey respondents generally cited subdued underlying demand conditions and uncertainty ahead of the presidential election as factors that had dampened growth in August. Nonetheless, the balance of service sector firms expecting a rise in business activity over the year ahead remained well above the survey-record low seen in June. |
| The composite PMI slipped from 51.8 in July to 51.5. | The composite PMI slipped from 51.8 in July to 51.5. |
| Flash all-sector US PMI from IHS Markit down from 51.8 in July to 51.5 in Aug. Points to another ~1% GDP rise in Q3 pic.twitter.com/8rlU5exlVf | Flash all-sector US PMI from IHS Markit down from 51.8 in July to 51.5 in Aug. Points to another ~1% GDP rise in Q3 pic.twitter.com/8rlU5exlVf |
| 2.44pm BST | 2.44pm BST |
| 14:44 | 14:44 |
| Wall Street opens cautiously | Wall Street opens cautiously |
| As investors await Fed chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, US markets are heading lower in early trading. | As investors await Fed chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, US markets are heading lower in early trading. |
| There is growing uncertainty over the timing of any US interest rate rise, and Yellen’s comments will be scoured for any hints. Meanwhile the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 12 points while the S&P 500 opened 0.18% lower. | There is growing uncertainty over the timing of any US interest rate rise, and Yellen’s comments will be scoured for any hints. Meanwhile the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 12 points while the S&P 500 opened 0.18% lower. |
| 2.26pm BST | 2.26pm BST |
| 14:26 | 14:26 |
| Neil Wilson, market analyst at ETX Capital is decidedly underwhelmed at the prospect of Jackson Hole: | Neil Wilson, market analyst at ETX Capital is decidedly underwhelmed at the prospect of Jackson Hole: |
| Don’t expect much from Jackson Hole. | Don’t expect much from Jackson Hole. |
| The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic policy symposium is a serious, sombre affair. It is not a policy meeting, nor is it meant to drive expectations for future policy decisions. It’s a talking shop and we should take the goods on offer with a healthy dose of salt. | The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic policy symposium is a serious, sombre affair. It is not a policy meeting, nor is it meant to drive expectations for future policy decisions. It’s a talking shop and we should take the goods on offer with a healthy dose of salt. |
| Markets are incredibly quiet this August (in sharp contrast to last year) so investors are latching on to anything they can, which gives this meeting a lot more attention than it probably deserves. Investors will hang on every word uttered by Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair. | Markets are incredibly quiet this August (in sharp contrast to last year) so investors are latching on to anything they can, which gives this meeting a lot more attention than it probably deserves. Investors will hang on every word uttered by Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair. |
| ...But Yellen’s habit of keeping markets guessing with alternately hawkish and dovish remarks should be kept in mind. Indeed what the meeting will highlight is just how hard it is for central banks to normalise policy after years of accommodation. | ...But Yellen’s habit of keeping markets guessing with alternately hawkish and dovish remarks should be kept in mind. Indeed what the meeting will highlight is just how hard it is for central banks to normalise policy after years of accommodation. |
| 2.14pm BST | 2.14pm BST |
| 14:14 | 14:14 |
| Economists taking part in a Reuters poll believe the Brexit vote will weigh on UK house prices over the next couple of years. | Economists taking part in a Reuters poll believe the Brexit vote will weigh on UK house prices over the next couple of years. |
| Average UK house prices are expected to rise by 2.8% in 2016, 1.3% in 2017, and 2.4% in 2018. | Average UK house prices are expected to rise by 2.8% in 2016, 1.3% in 2017, and 2.4% in 2018. |
| London property prices are forecast to increase by 2% in 2016, by zero in 2017, and by 2% in 2018. | London property prices are forecast to increase by 2% in 2016, by zero in 2017, and by 2% in 2018. |
| 2.05pm BST | 2.05pm BST |
| 14:05 | 14:05 |
| Rebound in US durable goods orders | Rebound in US durable goods orders |
| Some more strong data out of the US. Durable goods orders increased by 4.4% in July, following a 4.2% fall in June according to the US Commerce Department. | Some more strong data out of the US. Durable goods orders increased by 4.4% in July, following a 4.2% fall in June according to the US Commerce Department. |
| Economists had forecast a weaker rise of 3.3%. | Economists had forecast a weaker rise of 3.3%. |
| Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING, says the better-than-expected data do not alter his view that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at its September meeting: | Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING, says the better-than-expected data do not alter his view that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at its September meeting: |
| Some marginally better than expected durable goods orders don’t change our view that a September rate hike from the Fed is difficult to support. | Some marginally better than expected durable goods orders don’t change our view that a September rate hike from the Fed is difficult to support. |
| After two consecutive quarters of outright declines in US business investment, durable goods orders for July provide a first insight into how investment in the third quarter is shaping up. And our take on the figures is that the negativity is beginning to abate. | After two consecutive quarters of outright declines in US business investment, durable goods orders for July provide a first insight into how investment in the third quarter is shaping up. And our take on the figures is that the negativity is beginning to abate. |
| But this is far from a big turnaround. The headline 4.4% month-on-month growth in July only just offsets last month’s fall, and the trend for core goods orders and shipments are still both negative. | But this is far from a big turnaround. The headline 4.4% month-on-month growth in July only just offsets last month’s fall, and the trend for core goods orders and shipments are still both negative. |
| 1.49pm BST | 1.49pm BST |
| 13:49 | 13:49 |
| US jobless claims fall for a third week | US jobless claims fall for a third week |
| Over in the US, the latest figures showed new claims for unemployment benefit fell unexpectedly by 1,000 in the week ending 20 August to 261,000. | Over in the US, the latest figures showed new claims for unemployment benefit fell unexpectedly by 1,000 in the week ending 20 August to 261,000. |
| It was the third successive weekly fall, and a five-week low according to the US Labor Department data. | It was the third successive weekly fall, and a five-week low according to the US Labor Department data. |
| Economists had forecast a rise to 265,000 new claims. Claims have been below 300,000 - a threshold associated with a strong labour market - for 77 weeks in a row. It is the longest stretch since 1970. | Economists had forecast a rise to 265,000 new claims. Claims have been below 300,000 - a threshold associated with a strong labour market - for 77 weeks in a row. It is the longest stretch since 1970. |
| The four-week rolling average fell by 1,250 to 264,000 last week. | The four-week rolling average fell by 1,250 to 264,000 last week. |
| Initial jobless claims fall to 261,000 (265,000 expected)https://t.co/hg2uzrj3KI | Initial jobless claims fall to 261,000 (265,000 expected)https://t.co/hg2uzrj3KI |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.50pm BST | at 1.50pm BST |