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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/aug/25/central-bankers-gather-in-jackson-hole-business-live
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| Surprise rise in retail sales as consumers shrug off Brexit fears - business live | Surprise rise in retail sales as consumers shrug off Brexit fears - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 3.16pm BST | |
| 15:16 | |
| US rates could rise shortly - Fed board member | |
| While we wait for Fed chair Janet Yellen on Friday, and any hints she gives on US interest rates, there is at least one board member of the US central bank suggesting a rise could be imminent. | |
| Speaking on CNBC, Dallas Federal Reserve president Robert Kaplan said the bank should be able to hike rates in the not too distant future, and the case for a rise was strengthening. | |
| He said progress was being made on employment and - more slowly - inflation. | |
| Fed's Kaplan on @CNBC I'm focused on fundamental drivers; case for tightening is strengthening; progress on jobs front; moving toward hike | |
| Live now on @CNBC » Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan live in Jackson Hole, Wyoming with @SteveLiesman. pic.twitter.com/PQH392fZDL | |
| 2.59pm BST | |
| 14:59 | |
| The latest PMI data means a US rate rise in September is unlikely but could signal a move in December, said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at Markit: | |
| The ongoing lacklustre economic growth signalled by the flash PMI suggests GDP growth is failing to accelerate in the third quarter from the weak 1.2% pace seen in the second quarter. | |
| Historical comparisons indicate that the PMI is signalling an annualised GDP growth rate of just under 1% in the third quarter, based on the data for July and August. | |
| With job creation also waning alongside subdued price pressures (the August PMI is consistent with non-farm payrolls rising by just under 130,000), the survey data will fuel expectations that the Fed will be in no rush to tighten policy again. | |
| However, as anecdotal evidence from the survey suggests that business activity is being dampened by uncertainty due to the upcoming presidential election, there’s a good chance that the economy will pick up speed again after the vote, leaving a December rate hike on the table. | |
| Markit PMI data accurately predicted weak US GDP in Q1 & Q2 and now point to similar weak Q3 https://t.co/ekJo4Q1TuC pic.twitter.com/Q7nxVoZvWD | |
| Updated | |
| at 3.01pm BST | |
| 2.57pm BST | |
| 14:57 | |
| After the better than expected US durable goods and jobless claims figures, a service sector survey for August has missed forecasts. | |
| The IHS Markit service sector initial PMI came in at 50.9, down from 51.4 in July and below forecasts of 52. This was the weakest rise in services activity since February. Markit said: | |
| U.S. service providers indicated another month of lacklustre growth in August, with business activity, new orders and employment all rising at a slower pace than in July. Survey respondents generally cited subdued underlying demand conditions and uncertainty ahead of the presidential election as factors that had dampened growth in August. Nonetheless, the balance of service sector firms expecting a rise in business activity over the year ahead remained well above the survey-record low seen in June. | |
| The composite PMI slipped from 51.8 in July to 51.5. | |
| Flash all-sector US PMI from IHS Markit down from 51.8 in July to 51.5 in Aug. Points to another ~1% GDP rise in Q3 pic.twitter.com/8rlU5exlVf | |
| 2.44pm BST | 2.44pm BST |
| 14:44 | 14:44 |
| Wall Street opens cautiously | Wall Street opens cautiously |
| As investors await Fed chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, US markets are heading lower in early trading. | As investors await Fed chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, US markets are heading lower in early trading. |
| There is growing uncertainty over the timing of any US interest rate rise, and Yellen’s comments will be scoured for any hints. Meanwhile the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 12 points while the S&P 500 opened 0.18% lower. | There is growing uncertainty over the timing of any US interest rate rise, and Yellen’s comments will be scoured for any hints. Meanwhile the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 12 points while the S&P 500 opened 0.18% lower. |
| 2.26pm BST | 2.26pm BST |
| 14:26 | 14:26 |
| Neil Wilson, market analyst at ETX Capital is decidedly underwhelmed at the prospect of Jackson Hole: | Neil Wilson, market analyst at ETX Capital is decidedly underwhelmed at the prospect of Jackson Hole: |
| Don’t expect much from Jackson Hole. | Don’t expect much from Jackson Hole. |
| The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic policy symposium is a serious, sombre affair. It is not a policy meeting, nor is it meant to drive expectations for future policy decisions. It’s a talking shop and we should take the goods on offer with a healthy dose of salt. | The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic policy symposium is a serious, sombre affair. It is not a policy meeting, nor is it meant to drive expectations for future policy decisions. It’s a talking shop and we should take the goods on offer with a healthy dose of salt. |
| Markets are incredibly quiet this August (in sharp contrast to last year) so investors are latching on to anything they can, which gives this meeting a lot more attention than it probably deserves. Investors will hang on every word uttered by Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair. | Markets are incredibly quiet this August (in sharp contrast to last year) so investors are latching on to anything they can, which gives this meeting a lot more attention than it probably deserves. Investors will hang on every word uttered by Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair. |
| ...But Yellen’s habit of keeping markets guessing with alternately hawkish and dovish remarks should be kept in mind. Indeed what the meeting will highlight is just how hard it is for central banks to normalise policy after years of accommodation. | ...But Yellen’s habit of keeping markets guessing with alternately hawkish and dovish remarks should be kept in mind. Indeed what the meeting will highlight is just how hard it is for central banks to normalise policy after years of accommodation. |
| 2.14pm BST | 2.14pm BST |
| 14:14 | 14:14 |
| Economists taking part in a Reuters poll believe the Brexit vote will weigh on UK house prices over the next couple of years. | Economists taking part in a Reuters poll believe the Brexit vote will weigh on UK house prices over the next couple of years. |
| Average UK house prices are expected to rise by 2.8% in 2016, 1.3% in 2017, and 2.4% in 2018. | Average UK house prices are expected to rise by 2.8% in 2016, 1.3% in 2017, and 2.4% in 2018. |
| London property prices are forecast to increase by 2% in 2016, by zero in 2017, and by 2% in 2018. | London property prices are forecast to increase by 2% in 2016, by zero in 2017, and by 2% in 2018. |
| 2.05pm BST | 2.05pm BST |
| 14:05 | 14:05 |
| Rebound in US durable goods orders | Rebound in US durable goods orders |
| Some more strong data out of the US. Durable goods orders increased by 4.4% in July, following a 4.2% fall in June according to the US Commerce Department. | Some more strong data out of the US. Durable goods orders increased by 4.4% in July, following a 4.2% fall in June according to the US Commerce Department. |
| Economists had forecast a weaker rise of 3.3%. | Economists had forecast a weaker rise of 3.3%. |
| Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING, says the better-than-expected data do not alter his view that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at its September meeting: | Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING, says the better-than-expected data do not alter his view that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at its September meeting: |
| Some marginally better than expected durable goods orders don’t change our view that a September rate hike from the Fed is difficult to support. | Some marginally better than expected durable goods orders don’t change our view that a September rate hike from the Fed is difficult to support. |
| After two consecutive quarters of outright declines in US business investment, durable goods orders for July provide a first insight into how investment in the third quarter is shaping up. And our take on the figures is that the negativity is beginning to abate. | After two consecutive quarters of outright declines in US business investment, durable goods orders for July provide a first insight into how investment in the third quarter is shaping up. And our take on the figures is that the negativity is beginning to abate. |
| But this is far from a big turnaround. The headline 4.4% month-on-month growth in July only just offsets last month’s fall, and the trend for core goods orders and shipments are still both negative. | But this is far from a big turnaround. The headline 4.4% month-on-month growth in July only just offsets last month’s fall, and the trend for core goods orders and shipments are still both negative. |
| 1.49pm BST | 1.49pm BST |
| 13:49 | 13:49 |
| US jobless claims fall for a third week | US jobless claims fall for a third week |
| Over in the US, the latest figures showed new claims for unemployment benefit fell unexpectedly by 1,000 in the week ending 20 August to 261,000. | Over in the US, the latest figures showed new claims for unemployment benefit fell unexpectedly by 1,000 in the week ending 20 August to 261,000. |
| It was the third successive weekly fall, and a five-week low according to the US Labor Department data. | It was the third successive weekly fall, and a five-week low according to the US Labor Department data. |
| Economists had forecast a rise to 265,000 new claims. Claims have been below 300,000 - a threshold associated with a strong labour market - for 77 weeks in a row. It is the longest stretch since 1970. | Economists had forecast a rise to 265,000 new claims. Claims have been below 300,000 - a threshold associated with a strong labour market - for 77 weeks in a row. It is the longest stretch since 1970. |
| The four-week rolling average fell by 1,250 to 264,000 last week. | The four-week rolling average fell by 1,250 to 264,000 last week. |
| Initial jobless claims fall to 261,000 (265,000 expected)https://t.co/hg2uzrj3KI | Initial jobless claims fall to 261,000 (265,000 expected)https://t.co/hg2uzrj3KI |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.50pm BST | at 1.50pm BST |
| 1.37pm BST | 1.37pm BST |
| 13:37 | 13:37 |
| Sports Direct shareholder to vote against chairman | Sports Direct shareholder to vote against chairman |
| Sticking with Sports Direct, Legal & General Investment Management says it will vote against the re-election of the retailer’s chairman Keith Hellawell at the annual meeting on 7 September. | Sticking with Sports Direct, Legal & General Investment Management says it will vote against the re-election of the retailer’s chairman Keith Hellawell at the annual meeting on 7 September. |
| It would be the third consecutive year LGIM has voted against Hellawell’s re-election. | It would be the third consecutive year LGIM has voted against Hellawell’s re-election. |
| It also proposes to vote against the re-election of all non-executive directors at the company. | It also proposes to vote against the re-election of all non-executive directors at the company. |
| It follows a Guardian investigation last year that revealed Sports Direct warehouse workers were effectively being paid less than the minimum wage because of lengthy security checks at the end of shifts. | It follows a Guardian investigation last year that revealed Sports Direct warehouse workers were effectively being paid less than the minimum wage because of lengthy security checks at the end of shifts. |
| Earlier this month Sports Direct said warehouse workers would receive back pay totalling about £1m after the retailer admitted breaking the law by not paying the national minimum wage. | Earlier this month Sports Direct said warehouse workers would receive back pay totalling about £1m after the retailer admitted breaking the law by not paying the national minimum wage. |
| 1.21pm BST | 1.21pm BST |
| 13:21 | 13:21 |
| Sports Direct is back in the headlines after a major investor group spoke out about the retailer’s corporate governance failings. | Sports Direct is back in the headlines after a major investor group spoke out about the retailer’s corporate governance failings. |
| The Investor Forum has 40 members and represents 27% of Sports Direct’s independent shareholders, including Legal & General, Aviva, Standard Life and Fidelity. It was set up two years ago and this is apparently the first time it has made public concerns about a company. | The Investor Forum has 40 members and represents 27% of Sports Direct’s independent shareholders, including Legal & General, Aviva, Standard Life and Fidelity. It was set up two years ago and this is apparently the first time it has made public concerns about a company. |
| Governance failings are clearly resulting in declines in operating performance and long term shareholder value and, given the lack of progress and the broader impact on all stakeholders, the Forum now considers it important to make public its recommendations to the Sports Direct International board. | Governance failings are clearly resulting in declines in operating performance and long term shareholder value and, given the lack of progress and the broader impact on all stakeholders, the Forum now considers it important to make public its recommendations to the Sports Direct International board. |
| The Investor Forum calls on the board and its founder Mike Ashley to launch an independent review of the company’s “entire corporate governance framework” at the annual meeting on 7 September. They must commit to implementing the recommendations of that review, it adds. | The Investor Forum calls on the board and its founder Mike Ashley to launch an independent review of the company’s “entire corporate governance framework” at the annual meeting on 7 September. They must commit to implementing the recommendations of that review, it adds. |
| Andy Griffiths, executive director of the Forum: | Andy Griffiths, executive director of the Forum: |
| It is highly unusual for the Investor Forum to consider it necessary to make public their concerns and recommendations in this way. In prior situations we have always managed to work privately with companies to create effective long term solutions. | It is highly unusual for the Investor Forum to consider it necessary to make public their concerns and recommendations in this way. In prior situations we have always managed to work privately with companies to create effective long term solutions. |
| We do not take this step lightly and whilst we welcome SDI’s move to hold an open day, we still have not received an appropriate level of commitment to respond to investor concerns and, as a result, the usual options have been exhausted. | We do not take this step lightly and whilst we welcome SDI’s move to hold an open day, we still have not received an appropriate level of commitment to respond to investor concerns and, as a result, the usual options have been exhausted. |
| 1.05pm BST | 1.05pm BST |
| 13:05 | 13:05 |
| Phillip Inman, the Guardian’s economics correspondent, has written a handy list of five problems facing central bankers as they head to Jackson Hole for the annual symposium. | Phillip Inman, the Guardian’s economics correspondent, has written a handy list of five problems facing central bankers as they head to Jackson Hole for the annual symposium. |
| Here they are in short: | Here they are in short: |
| Read the piece in full here: | Read the piece in full here: |
| 12.45pm BST | 12.45pm BST |
| 12:45 | 12:45 |
| Net migration 327k yr to Mar, Immigration 633k,Emigration 306k, all similar to recent levels https://t.co/g6f11hmRTT pic.twitter.com/859BqlTEgk | Net migration 327k yr to Mar, Immigration 633k,Emigration 306k, all similar to recent levels https://t.co/g6f11hmRTT pic.twitter.com/859BqlTEgk |
| Poland was the most common country of birth for non-UK mothers in E&W in 2015, Pakistan for fathers https://t.co/r6P9s4niS9 | Poland was the most common country of birth for non-UK mothers in E&W in 2015, Pakistan for fathers https://t.co/r6P9s4niS9 |
| 12.23pm BST | 12.23pm BST |
| 12:23 | 12:23 |
| Spike in UK passport applications in run-up to Brexit vote | Spike in UK passport applications in run-up to Brexit vote |
| Applications for British citizenship by EU nationals living in the UK jumped 14% in the run-up to the EU referendum in June. | Applications for British citizenship by EU nationals living in the UK jumped 14% in the run-up to the EU referendum in June. |
| Figures from the Home Office suggest there was a rush for British passports as uncertainty built before the referendum. | Figures from the Home Office suggest there was a rush for British passports as uncertainty built before the referendum. |
| The 14% rise in passport applications to 15,501 included a 26% rise in applications from Italians and a 9% rise from Polish nationals in Britain. | The 14% rise in passport applications to 15,501 included a 26% rise in applications from Italians and a 9% rise from Polish nationals in Britain. |
| Separate figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that in 2015, one in eight people - or 8.6m - living in the UK were born abroad. It was a 3.5% increase, up from 8.3m in 2014. | Separate figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that in 2015, one in eight people - or 8.6m - living in the UK were born abroad. It was a 3.5% increase, up from 8.3m in 2014. |
| 5 areas in London have over 50% residents born outside the UK https://t.co/DCR8IBnAaq | 5 areas in London have over 50% residents born outside the UK https://t.co/DCR8IBnAaq |
| Annual net migration to Britain fell by 9,000 to 327,000 in the 12 months to March 2016. | Annual net migration to Britain fell by 9,000 to 327,000 in the 12 months to March 2016. |
| 12.03pm BST | 12.03pm BST |
| 12:03 | 12:03 |
| Oil falls below $49 a barrel | Oil falls below $49 a barrel |
| The price of Brent crude oil has fallen below $49 a barrel, and is currently down 0.2% at $48.94. | The price of Brent crude oil has fallen below $49 a barrel, and is currently down 0.2% at $48.94. |
| Prices are under pressure as hopes fade that oil producing countries will reach a deal to limit production, and on the latest evidence that stocks are rising in the US. | Prices are under pressure as hopes fade that oil producing countries will reach a deal to limit production, and on the latest evidence that stocks are rising in the US. |
| US government data published on Thursday showed weekly crude stocks rose by 2.5m barrels to 523.59m. Analysts had expected the figures from the Energy Information Administration to show a 0.5m fall. | US government data published on Thursday showed weekly crude stocks rose by 2.5m barrels to 523.59m. Analysts had expected the figures from the Energy Information Administration to show a 0.5m fall. |
| 11.55am BST | 11.55am BST |
| 11:55 | 11:55 |
| Pound falls against dollar and euro | Pound falls against dollar and euro |
| The pound is coming under some pressure. | The pound is coming under some pressure. |
| It is down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.32, and down 0.5% against the euro at €1.1688. | It is down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.32, and down 0.5% against the euro at €1.1688. |
| 11.51am BST | 11.51am BST |
| 11:51 | 11:51 |
| Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics says the strong UK retail sales reported by the CBI won’t last as the impact of the Brexit vote starts to creep into the data: | Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics says the strong UK retail sales reported by the CBI won’t last as the impact of the Brexit vote starts to creep into the data: |
| With labour market conditions likely to deteriorate and rising inflation set to undermine real wage growth, it would be fairly surprising if retail sales growth didn’t slow at all in the aftermath of the leave vote. | With labour market conditions likely to deteriorate and rising inflation set to undermine real wage growth, it would be fairly surprising if retail sales growth didn’t slow at all in the aftermath of the leave vote. |
| It shouldn’t be too dire for retail sales though, she adds: | It shouldn’t be too dire for retail sales though, she adds: |
| We think that other supportive factors – including low interest rates – should prevent household purchases from slowing too sharply. What’s more, the upbeat tone of the forward-looking indicators provide us with some reassurance that we’re not likely to see a marked collapse in consumer spending ahead. | We think that other supportive factors – including low interest rates – should prevent household purchases from slowing too sharply. What’s more, the upbeat tone of the forward-looking indicators provide us with some reassurance that we’re not likely to see a marked collapse in consumer spending ahead. |
| 11.15am BST | 11.15am BST |
| 11:15 | 11:15 |
| CBI: UK retail sales surprisingly strong in August | CBI: UK retail sales surprisingly strong in August |
| There is no sign of Brexit uncertainty weighing on consumer confidence in the CBI’s latest retail survey. | There is no sign of Brexit uncertainty weighing on consumer confidence in the CBI’s latest retail survey. |
| Shoppers were encouraged to hit the high streets by the sunny weather, shrugging off any Brexit fears. | Shoppers were encouraged to hit the high streets by the sunny weather, shrugging off any Brexit fears. |
| Specifically, 35% of retailers said sales volumes were up in August compared with a year earlier, while 26% said they were down. It gave a balance of +9%, rebounding from -14% in July. | Specifically, 35% of retailers said sales volumes were up in August compared with a year earlier, while 26% said they were down. It gave a balance of +9%, rebounding from -14% in July. |
| It was far better than the -12% predicted by retailers. | It was far better than the -12% predicted by retailers. |
| Anna Leach, CBI head of economic analysis says it’s not all good news: | Anna Leach, CBI head of economic analysis says it’s not all good news: |
| The summer weather has brought shoppers out onto the high street with retailers reporting that sales growth has risen, outdoing expectations, although firms do expect sales growth to ease next month. | The summer weather has brought shoppers out onto the high street with retailers reporting that sales growth has risen, outdoing expectations, although firms do expect sales growth to ease next month. |
| While the fall in sterling has boosted visitor numbers to the UK, it is likely to push up the price of imported goods over time which will mean households will be more likely to rein back spending on non-essentials. | While the fall in sterling has boosted visitor numbers to the UK, it is likely to push up the price of imported goods over time which will mean households will be more likely to rein back spending on non-essentials. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.33am BST | at 11.33am BST |
| 11.04am BST | 11.04am BST |
| 11:04 | 11:04 |
| And we’re back... | And we’re back... |