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| Surprise rise in retail sales as consumers shrug off Brexit fears - business live | Surprise rise in retail sales as consumers shrug off Brexit fears - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 12.23pm BST | |
| 12:23 | |
| Spike in UK passport applications in run-up to Brexit vote | |
| Applications for British citizenship by EU nationals living in the UK jumped 14% in the run-up to the EU referendum in June. | |
| Figures from the Home Office suggest there was a rush for British passports as uncertainty built before the referendum. | |
| The 14% rise in passport applications to 15,501 included a 26% rise in applications from Italians and a 9% rise from Polish nationals in Britain. | |
| Separate figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that in 2015, one in eight people - or 8.6m - living in the UK were born abroad. It was a 3.5% increase, up from 8.3m in 2014. | |
| 5 areas in London have over 50% residents born outside the UK https://t.co/DCR8IBnAaq | |
| Annual net migration to Britain fell by 9,000 to 327,000 in the 12 months to March 2016. | |
| 12.03pm BST | |
| 12:03 | |
| Oil falls below $49 a barrel | |
| The price of Brent crude oil has fallen below $49 a barrel, and is currently down 0.2% at $48.94. | |
| Prices are under pressure as hopes fade that oil producing countries will reach a deal to limit production, and on the latest evidence that stocks are rising in the US. | |
| US government data published on Thursday showed weekly crude stocks rose by 2.5m barrels to 523.59m. Analysts had expected the figures from the Energy Information Administration to show a 0.5m fall. | |
| 11.55am BST | |
| 11:55 | |
| Pound falls against dollar and euro | |
| The pound is coming under some pressure. | |
| It is down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.32, and down 0.5% against the euro at €1.1688. | |
| 11.51am BST | |
| 11:51 | |
| Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics says the strong UK retail sales reported by the CBI won’t last as the impact of the Brexit vote starts to creep into the data: | |
| With labour market conditions likely to deteriorate and rising inflation set to undermine real wage growth, it would be fairly surprising if retail sales growth didn’t slow at all in the aftermath of the leave vote. | |
| It shouldn’t be too dire for retail sales though, she adds: | |
| We think that other supportive factors – including low interest rates – should prevent household purchases from slowing too sharply. What’s more, the upbeat tone of the forward-looking indicators provide us with some reassurance that we’re not likely to see a marked collapse in consumer spending ahead. | |
| 11.15am BST | 11.15am BST |
| 11:15 | 11:15 |
| CBI: UK retail sales surprisingly strong in August | CBI: UK retail sales surprisingly strong in August |
| There is no sign of Brexit uncertainty weighing on consumer confidence in the CBI’s latest retail survey. | There is no sign of Brexit uncertainty weighing on consumer confidence in the CBI’s latest retail survey. |
| Shoppers were encouraged to hit the high streets by the sunny weather, shrugging off any Brexit fears. | Shoppers were encouraged to hit the high streets by the sunny weather, shrugging off any Brexit fears. |
| Specifically, 35% of retailers said sales volumes were up in August compared with a year earlier, while 26% said they were down. It gave a balance of +9%, rebounding from -14% in July. | Specifically, 35% of retailers said sales volumes were up in August compared with a year earlier, while 26% said they were down. It gave a balance of +9%, rebounding from -14% in July. |
| It was far better than the -12% predicted by retailers. | It was far better than the -12% predicted by retailers. |
| Anna Leach, CBI head of economic analysis says it’s not all good news: | Anna Leach, CBI head of economic analysis says it’s not all good news: |
| The summer weather has brought shoppers out onto the high street with retailers reporting that sales growth has risen, outdoing expectations, although firms do expect sales growth to ease next month. | The summer weather has brought shoppers out onto the high street with retailers reporting that sales growth has risen, outdoing expectations, although firms do expect sales growth to ease next month. |
| While the fall in sterling has boosted visitor numbers to the UK, it is likely to push up the price of imported goods over time which will mean households will be more likely to rein back spending on non-essentials. | While the fall in sterling has boosted visitor numbers to the UK, it is likely to push up the price of imported goods over time which will mean households will be more likely to rein back spending on non-essentials. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.33am BST | at 11.33am BST |
| 11.04am BST | 11.04am BST |
| 11:04 | 11:04 |
| And we’re back... | And we’re back... |
| 10.36am BST | 10.36am BST |
| 10:36 | 10:36 |
| Guardian Towers is being evacuated following a fire alarm... we’ll be back as soon as possible | Guardian Towers is being evacuated following a fire alarm... we’ll be back as soon as possible |
| 10.27am BST | 10.27am BST |
| 10:27 | 10:27 |
| Jasper Lawler, analyst at CMC markets, has this take on Thursday’s share price falls across Europe: | Jasper Lawler, analyst at CMC markets, has this take on Thursday’s share price falls across Europe: |
| European healthcare stocks have been caught in the storm of another attack on price gauging in the industry from presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton. | European healthcare stocks have been caught in the storm of another attack on price gauging in the industry from presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton. |
| Shire and Hikma Pharmaceuticals are amongst the top fallers on the FTSE 100 whilst Qiagen in Germany was a top faller in the Stoxx 600 Healthcare euro price index. | Shire and Hikma Pharmaceuticals are amongst the top fallers on the FTSE 100 whilst Qiagen in Germany was a top faller in the Stoxx 600 Healthcare euro price index. |
| The FTSE 350 Mining Index is off by over 2% from the open. Poorly-received earnings from Glencore on Wednesday and lower oil prices continue to weigh on commodity-sensitive shares. | The FTSE 350 Mining Index is off by over 2% from the open. Poorly-received earnings from Glencore on Wednesday and lower oil prices continue to weigh on commodity-sensitive shares. |
| 10.20am BST | 10.20am BST |
| 10:20 | 10:20 |
| Pharma shares push European markets lower | Pharma shares push European markets lower |
| European equity losses are building this morning, driven lower by pharmaceutical stocks following comments by US presidential hope Hilary Clinton. | European equity losses are building this morning, driven lower by pharmaceutical stocks following comments by US presidential hope Hilary Clinton. |
| Her comments about excessive price rises in the industry - with specific reference to Mylan raising the cost of allergy treatment EpiPens - are weighing on the sector. | Her comments about excessive price rises in the industry - with specific reference to Mylan raising the cost of allergy treatment EpiPens - are weighing on the sector. |
| Clinton said it was “the latest troubling example of a company taking advantage of its consumers”. | Clinton said it was “the latest troubling example of a company taking advantage of its consumers”. |
| She continued: | She continued: |
| ...it’s wrong when drug companies put profits ahead of patients, raising prices without justifying the value behind them. | ...it’s wrong when drug companies put profits ahead of patients, raising prices without justifying the value behind them. |
| That’s why I’ve put forward a plan, hrc.io/2c7gjuI, to address exorbitant drug price hikes like these. As part of my plan, I’ve made clear that pharmaceutical manufacturers should be required to explain significant price increases, and prove that any additional costs are linked to additional patient benefits and better value. | That’s why I’ve put forward a plan, hrc.io/2c7gjuI, to address exorbitant drug price hikes like these. As part of my plan, I’ve made clear that pharmaceutical manufacturers should be required to explain significant price increases, and prove that any additional costs are linked to additional patient benefits and better value. |
| Since there is no apparent justification in this case, I am calling on Mylan to immediately reduce the price of EpiPens. | Since there is no apparent justification in this case, I am calling on Mylan to immediately reduce the price of EpiPens. |
| EpiPens can be the difference between life and death. There's no justification for these price hikes. https://t.co/O6RbVR6Qim -H | EpiPens can be the difference between life and death. There's no justification for these price hikes. https://t.co/O6RbVR6Qim -H |
| Europe’s STOXX 600 index is down 1.14% at 341, with pharmaceutical companies among the biggest fallers: | Europe’s STOXX 600 index is down 1.14% at 341, with pharmaceutical companies among the biggest fallers: |
| 9.41am BST | 9.41am BST |
| 09:41 | 09:41 |
| Carsten Brzeski, ING chief economist for Germany and Austria, says the weak August Ifo survey suggests German business confidence has been struck down by the Brexit vote. | Carsten Brzeski, ING chief economist for Germany and Austria, says the weak August Ifo survey suggests German business confidence has been struck down by the Brexit vote. |
| Oops. It seems that German businesses always take a bit longer to digest the news but today’s Ifo suggests that German businesses have suddenly woken up to Brexit reality. | Oops. It seems that German businesses always take a bit longer to digest the news but today’s Ifo suggests that German businesses have suddenly woken up to Brexit reality. |
| Germany’s most prominent indicator, the Ifo index, decreased sharply in August to 106.2, from 108.3 in July; the strongest monthly drop since May 2012. The drop was equally driven by decreases of both the current assessment and the expectations component. The expectations component is now at its lowest level since October 2014. | Germany’s most prominent indicator, the Ifo index, decreased sharply in August to 106.2, from 108.3 in July; the strongest monthly drop since May 2012. The drop was equally driven by decreases of both the current assessment and the expectations component. The expectations component is now at its lowest level since October 2014. |
| What we had feared could happen did unfortunately happen: German businesses continued a longer tradition of delayed reactions to single and unexpected events. It is not the first time that the Ifo reacts with a delay of one or two months to global events. | What we had feared could happen did unfortunately happen: German businesses continued a longer tradition of delayed reactions to single and unexpected events. It is not the first time that the Ifo reacts with a delay of one or two months to global events. |
| Today’s Ifo reading is a good reminder that the relative benign reaction of Eurozone data to the Brexit vote should not be taken as given. The negative confidence impact is for real. | Today’s Ifo reading is a good reminder that the relative benign reaction of Eurozone data to the Brexit vote should not be taken as given. The negative confidence impact is for real. |
| 9.19am BST | 9.19am BST |
| 09:19 | 09:19 |
| German business sentiment weakens | German business sentiment weakens |
| Morale among German businesses weakened unexpectedly in August according to the latest Ifo survey. | Morale among German businesses weakened unexpectedly in August according to the latest Ifo survey. |
| The headline business climate index, based on a survey of about 7,000 firms, fell to 106.2 this month from 108.3 in July. Economists had forecast a slight improvement to108.5. | The headline business climate index, based on a survey of about 7,000 firms, fell to 106.2 this month from 108.3 in July. Economists had forecast a slight improvement to108.5. |
| Clemens Fuest, Ifo head, said: | Clemens Fuest, Ifo head, said: |
| Business confidence in Germany has clearly worsened. The German economy has fallen into a summer slump. | Business confidence in Germany has clearly worsened. The German economy has fallen into a summer slump. |
| 8.49am BST | 8.49am BST |
| 08:49 | 08:49 |
| European markets open lower | European markets open lower |
| Europe’s major markets are all down this morning. It follows falls on Wall Street on Wednesday and in Asia on Thursday. | Europe’s major markets are all down this morning. It follows falls on Wall Street on Wednesday and in Asia on Thursday. |
| Investors are feeling cautious ahead of Jackson Hole, and the recent drop in the oil price as hopes of an OPEC deal fade is also denting sentiment. | Investors are feeling cautious ahead of Jackson Hole, and the recent drop in the oil price as hopes of an OPEC deal fade is also denting sentiment. |
| 8.30am BST | 8.30am BST |
| 08:30 | 08:30 |
| UK car production tops one million | UK car production tops one million |
| More than a million cars have rolled off production lines at UK factors since the beginning of 2016. | More than a million cars have rolled off production lines at UK factors since the beginning of 2016. |
| The latest industry figures showed a total of 1.02 million cars were built in the first six months of the year. It was a 12.3% increase compared with the same period a year earlier. | The latest industry figures showed a total of 1.02 million cars were built in the first six months of the year. It was a 12.3% increase compared with the same period a year earlier. |
| In July alone, the number of cars made in the UK rose by 7.6% to 126,566 vehicles. It was the 12th consecutive month of growth. | In July alone, the number of cars made in the UK rose by 7.6% to 126,566 vehicles. It was the 12th consecutive month of growth. |
| Mike Hawes from the industry trade body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, says production is “booming” with demand for British built cars from around the world. | Mike Hawes from the industry trade body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, says production is “booming” with demand for British built cars from around the world. |
| Manufacturers have invested billions to develop exciting new models and produce them competitively here in the UK. | Manufacturers have invested billions to develop exciting new models and produce them competitively here in the UK. |
| Future success will depend on continued new car demand and attracting the next wave of investment so Britain must demonstrate it remains competitive and open for business. | Future success will depend on continued new car demand and attracting the next wave of investment so Britain must demonstrate it remains competitive and open for business. |
| There are concerns however that following the Brexit vote foreign car companies will be less willing to invest in UK car plants. | There are concerns however that following the Brexit vote foreign car companies will be less willing to invest in UK car plants. |
| The rise in production volumes in 2016 is the result of past investment so it will take a while for any Brexit effect to feed through to manufacturing numbers. | The rise in production volumes in 2016 is the result of past investment so it will take a while for any Brexit effect to feed through to manufacturing numbers. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.34am BST | at 8.34am BST |
| 8.10am BST | 8.10am BST |
| 08:10 | 08:10 |
| French business confidence falters | French business confidence falters |
| Figures published this morning show French business confidence faltered in August. | Figures published this morning show French business confidence faltered in August. |
| The French statistics office INSEE said the index for firms in the industrial sector dropped to 101 from 103 in July. The weaker confidence was most keenly felt among food and drinks manufacturers. | The French statistics office INSEE said the index for firms in the industrial sector dropped to 101 from 103 in July. The weaker confidence was most keenly felt among food and drinks manufacturers. |
| The wider gauge of business morale also dipped to 101 this month from 102 in July. Confidence in the services sector was stable at 101. | The wider gauge of business morale also dipped to 101 this month from 102 in July. Confidence in the services sector was stable at 101. |
| 8.00am BST | 8.00am BST |
| 08:00 | 08:00 |
| European markets are expected to open lower: | European markets are expected to open lower: |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6820 down 16$DAX 10602 down 21$CAC 4429 down 6$IBEX 8629 down 27$MIB 16820 down 72 | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6820 down 16$DAX 10602 down 21$CAC 4429 down 6$IBEX 8629 down 27$MIB 16820 down 72 |
| 7.59am BST | 7.59am BST |
| 07:59 | 07:59 |
| The agenda: countdown to Jackson Hole | The agenda: countdown to Jackson Hole |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Central bankers and leading economists will arrive for the keenly anticipated Jackson Hole symposium which kicks off today with a reception and opening dinner. | Central bankers and leading economists will arrive for the keenly anticipated Jackson Hole symposium which kicks off today with a reception and opening dinner. |
| The full agenda for the meeting will be published at 6pm Mountain Time today (1am Friday in the UK). It should be available here. | The full agenda for the meeting will be published at 6pm Mountain Time today (1am Friday in the UK). It should be available here. |
| The main event of course will be the speech by Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve. She will be speaking on Friday at 3pm UK time. Investors will be listening closely for any hints on the timing of the next interest rate rise. | The main event of course will be the speech by Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve. She will be speaking on Friday at 3pm UK time. Investors will be listening closely for any hints on the timing of the next interest rate rise. |
| There will be more clues on whether or not the Brexit vote has knocked confidence among UK consumers when we get the CBI’s latest retail sales survey for August. | There will be more clues on whether or not the Brexit vote has knocked confidence among UK consumers when we get the CBI’s latest retail sales survey for August. |
| Also today: | Also today: |
| We will be bringing you all the key developments as the day unfolds. | We will be bringing you all the key developments as the day unfolds. |