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| US election: Texas voter turnout up as millions cast early ballots – live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 2.54pm BST | |
| 14:54 | |
| Model fight! | |
| We love these kinds of dialogues because they’re interesting and they throw light on how election modeling works and they’re almost certainly good for the overarching quest to model elections well. | |
| @JustinWolfers: I'm just going to say this once, but you make some very lazy critiques. Build a model yourself and see how this stuff works. | |
| @JustinWolfers: Still lazy. But it's interesting that prediction markets have tracked 538 polls-plus *almost exactly* thru the campaign. | |
| @JustinWolfers: You probably also know that most models in low-n environments are overfit and overconfident. We work hard to avoid that. | |
| 2.48pm BST | |
| 14:48 | |
| Trump implies he does not provide employees with health insurance | |
| Trump appears to claim that he does not provide his employees with employer-subsidized health care, forcing them onto the Obamacare exchanges? | |
| Trump: "All of my employees are having a tremendous problem with Obamacare." | |
| Don't his employees get health coverage through their employer? https://t.co/TLZpncca5S | |
| Trump just said his employees are having a hard time with Obamacare.... so .... he doesn't provide benefits? | |
| 2.43pm BST | |
| 14:43 | |
| The Trump pool reporter today is BuzzFeed’s Rosie Gray, who here reports on an open event we’re just learning the nature of. “Trump hotel event in Doral. He’s currently talking about the hotel’s ‘tremendous success,’ she tweets: | |
| Not the first time Trump's managed to trick the press into covering what is basically a promotional event for a Trump property. | |
| 2.41pm BST | |
| 14:41 | |
| Let’s check in on early voting in Nevada. Reno? | |
| Dems won early voting for third straight day in swing county Washoe by substantial margin. pic.twitter.com/q3wxuqvPH5 | |
| Las Vegas? | |
| Democrats added 5,000 votes to their lead in Clark County on Monday. It's now more than 23,500 raw votes. Statewide: 22K. On par with 2012. | |
| Obama, of course, won in NV by 7 in 2012. https://t.co/vY3PtsBIpG | |
| 2.36pm BST | |
| 14:36 | |
| Whatever Trump’s event is this morning, he has assembled employees of his Doral national golf club for it. Here’s the scene: | |
| Trump doing photo op with Doral employees — with blinding sun directly behind them. Top-notch advance work. pic.twitter.com/6lAiC0DSlI | |
| 2.32pm BST | |
| 14:32 | |
| “You’ll Likely Be Reading One Of These 5 Articles The Day After The Election” – that’s the title of a fun new piece by Cook political report editor Dave Wasserman for FiveThirtyEight. Wasserman imagines a Clinton landslide, a Clinton majority, a 2012 redux, a Clinton squeaker – and, yes, a Trump upset. | |
| The piece rather brilliantly imagines the turnout and loyalties of various demographic groups underlying each imagined result, as well as likely down-ballot effects. | |
| In the landslide scenario, Wasserman imagines Clinton with 413 electoral votes, including victories in Arizona, Texas and Georgia; he gives Utah to independent candidate Evan McMullin. In this scenario, senate candidate Patrick Murphy upsets Marco Rubio in Florida and the Democrats end up with a 54-seat senate majority. But, to underscore just how hard this would be, the Democrats still don’t take the House. | |
| What about the Trump upset? He gets Pennsylvania (where polling averages have Clinton up six points), Wisconsin (ditto) and New Hampshire (five points), in addition to all the Romney states plus Florida, Iowa and Ohio. Here’s Wasserman’s nut graph for that scenario: | |
| After one of the worst polling misses of all time, election “forecasters” and experts were left scratching their heads. Trump credited his “Silent Majority” for swarming polling places and himself for leading a blue-collar revolution. Indeed, turnout among whites without a college degree surged from 55 percent in 2012 to 64 percent in 2016, and Trump carried them by 35 percentage points. Validating the “shy Trump voter” theory, Trump defied expectations by nearly tying Clinton among whites with a college degree. | |
| Read further. | |
| 2.07pm BST | 2.07pm BST |
| 14:07 | 14:07 |
| Obamacare premiums set to spike, White House says | Obamacare premiums set to spike, White House says |
| Premiums will go up sharply next year under President Barack Obama’s health care law, and many consumers will be down to just one insurer, the administration confirmed Monday. That’s sure to stoke another “Obamacare” controversy days before a presidential election, the AP reports: | Premiums will go up sharply next year under President Barack Obama’s health care law, and many consumers will be down to just one insurer, the administration confirmed Monday. That’s sure to stoke another “Obamacare” controversy days before a presidential election, the AP reports: |
| Before taxpayer-provided subsidies, premiums for a midlevel benchmark plan will increase an average of 25 percent across the 39 states served by the federally run online market, according to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services. Some states will see much bigger jumps, others less. | Before taxpayer-provided subsidies, premiums for a midlevel benchmark plan will increase an average of 25 percent across the 39 states served by the federally run online market, according to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services. Some states will see much bigger jumps, others less. |
| Moreover, about 1 in 5 consumers will have plans only from a single insurer to pick from, after major national carriers such as UnitedHealth Group, Humana and Aetna scaled back their roles. | Moreover, about 1 in 5 consumers will have plans only from a single insurer to pick from, after major national carriers such as UnitedHealth Group, Humana and Aetna scaled back their roles. |
| “Consumers will be faced this year with not only big premium increases but also with a declining number of insurers participating, and that will lead to a tumultuous open enrollment period,” said Larry Levitt, who tracks the health care law for the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation. | “Consumers will be faced this year with not only big premium increases but also with a declining number of insurers participating, and that will lead to a tumultuous open enrollment period,” said Larry Levitt, who tracks the health care law for the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation. |
| Republicans pounced on the numbers as a warning that insurance markets created by the 2010 health overhaul are teetering toward a “death spiral.” Sign-up season starts Nov. 1, about a week before national elections in which the GOP remains committed to a full repeal. | Republicans pounced on the numbers as a warning that insurance markets created by the 2010 health overhaul are teetering toward a “death spiral.” Sign-up season starts Nov. 1, about a week before national elections in which the GOP remains committed to a full repeal. |
| “It’s over for Obamacare,” Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said at a campaign rally Monday evening in Tampa, Florida. | “It’s over for Obamacare,” Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said at a campaign rally Monday evening in Tampa, Florida. |
| Read further here. | Read further here. |
| Anxious to see what @realDonaldTrump will do today to distract from the news of the 25% Obamacare premium increase | Anxious to see what @realDonaldTrump will do today to distract from the news of the 25% Obamacare premium increase |
| One would expect a GOP nominee to hold a press conference with people whose Obamacare premiums have increased, or something. | One would expect a GOP nominee to hold a press conference with people whose Obamacare premiums have increased, or something. |
| 2.03pm BST | 2.03pm BST |
| 14:03 | 14:03 |
| Trump’s press pool reports that they’ve been called to his Doral national golf club outside Miami for an event on whose nature they remain uninformed. Stay tuned. | Trump’s press pool reports that they’ve been called to his Doral national golf club outside Miami for an event on whose nature they remain uninformed. Stay tuned. |
| 1.33pm BST | 1.33pm BST |
| 13:33 | 13:33 |
| Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. It’s a mere fortnight until election day. Though with early voting getting under way in earnest – more than 7 million people have cast ballots already – we’ve actually already arrived. | Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. It’s a mere fortnight until election day. Though with early voting getting under way in earnest – more than 7 million people have cast ballots already – we’ve actually already arrived. |
| Texas jumped into the early voting game yesterday the only way Texas knows how: bigly. Voting was way up in the state’s five biggest counties, the Texas Tribune found, in a sign that could indicate that Hillary Clinton really has made the state semi-competitive, in the face of all relevant precedent. | Texas jumped into the early voting game yesterday the only way Texas knows how: bigly. Voting was way up in the state’s five biggest counties, the Texas Tribune found, in a sign that could indicate that Hillary Clinton really has made the state semi-competitive, in the face of all relevant precedent. |
| My back of the napkin: Early voting up by average of 57% today in Texas' five biggest counties compared to first early voting day in 2012 pic.twitter.com/cnEOtUA1KB | My back of the napkin: Early voting up by average of 57% today in Texas' five biggest counties compared to first early voting day in 2012 pic.twitter.com/cnEOtUA1KB |
| This is what happens when a state becomes a battleground, people start believing their vote matters https://t.co/vOqUeeGQSZ | This is what happens when a state becomes a battleground, people start believing their vote matters https://t.co/vOqUeeGQSZ |
| Bad news for Trump in North Carolina | Bad news for Trump in North Carolina |
| A new edition of the hyper-quant New York Times poll of North Carolina has Clinton with a seven-point lead in the state, which Trump simply must win. Polling averages have Clinton up by about two there. | A new edition of the hyper-quant New York Times poll of North Carolina has Clinton with a seven-point lead in the state, which Trump simply must win. Polling averages have Clinton up by about two there. |
| Clinton leads by 7 points, 46-39 percent, in the final Upshot/Siena poll of North Carolina https://t.co/hIKoOUlwsH | Clinton leads by 7 points, 46-39 percent, in the final Upshot/Siena poll of North Carolina https://t.co/hIKoOUlwsH |
| Where the rallies are today | Where the rallies are today |
| Hillary Clinton has an event in Broward County, Florida, where she’d like to stay close to Barack Obama’s 35-point margin of victory in 2012. Vice-president Joe Biden is in Pittsburgh. Bill Clinton has three events in North Carolina. Chelsea Clinton has three events in Wisconsin. Senator Elizabeth Warren is in Raleigh, North Carolina. Tim Kaine is in New York City for a fundraiser. And Kaine’s wife, Anne Holton, a former judge and state education secretary, has two events in Nevada. | Hillary Clinton has an event in Broward County, Florida, where she’d like to stay close to Barack Obama’s 35-point margin of victory in 2012. Vice-president Joe Biden is in Pittsburgh. Bill Clinton has three events in North Carolina. Chelsea Clinton has three events in Wisconsin. Senator Elizabeth Warren is in Raleigh, North Carolina. Tim Kaine is in New York City for a fundraiser. And Kaine’s wife, Anne Holton, a former judge and state education secretary, has two events in Nevada. |
| Donald Trump has two rallies in Florida. Mike Pence has three rallies in Ohio. | Donald Trump has two rallies in Florida. Mike Pence has three rallies in Ohio. |
| ‘Trump TV’ gets a soft launch | ‘Trump TV’ gets a soft launch |
| The Guardian’s Dave Schilling reports: “I thought there’d be snacks,” RNC strategist Sean Spicer said to the hosts of the debut installment of what the media is generously referring to as Trump TV. | The Guardian’s Dave Schilling reports: “I thought there’d be snacks,” RNC strategist Sean Spicer said to the hosts of the debut installment of what the media is generously referring to as Trump TV. |
| We were all in a bit of a frothy lather over this being the long-awaited rollout of Donald Trump’s real 2016 endgame – a 24-hour news empire to go toe-to-toe with Fox News for the eyeballs of America’s far right. At last, Trump would reveal his true intentions. | We were all in a bit of a frothy lather over this being the long-awaited rollout of Donald Trump’s real 2016 endgame – a 24-hour news empire to go toe-to-toe with Fox News for the eyeballs of America’s far right. At last, Trump would reveal his true intentions. |
| Instead, we got a grown man asking where the craft services table is. | Instead, we got a grown man asking where the craft services table is. |
| This is not Trump TV, declared the hosts – Trump advisers Boris Epshteyn and Cliff Sims. It is, instead a program called Live from Trump Tower – “an effort by us to reach out to you”, they said. | This is not Trump TV, declared the hosts – Trump advisers Boris Epshteyn and Cliff Sims. It is, instead a program called Live from Trump Tower – “an effort by us to reach out to you”, they said. |
| But there is no discernible entertainment value to be had in Live from Trump Tower, unless your idea of a good time is significantly less professional than InfoWars, but with fewer insane people removing articles of clothing. | But there is no discernible entertainment value to be had in Live from Trump Tower, unless your idea of a good time is significantly less professional than InfoWars, but with fewer insane people removing articles of clothing. |
| Obama does ‘mean tweets’ | Obama does ‘mean tweets’ |
| Thank you for reading and please join us in the comments. | Thank you for reading and please join us in the comments. |