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| Clinton support appears strong in Texas and Florida early voting – election live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 4.02pm BST | |
| 16:02 | |
| Reader challenge: what's your map look like? | |
| This is a two-part challenge, actually. The first part is, go to 270towin.com and fill in the electoral map how you think it will come out. What’s your final electoral vote tally? | |
| The second part is, predict what time the election will be called. You may find this AP record of when each state was called in 2012 useful. The 2012 election was called by AP at 11.38pm ET. | |
| My current electoral map, prediction-wise. I think all swings will swing away from Trump at this point, for obvious reasons. pic.twitter.com/oo7c7VdQou | |
| That map would elect a president before polls close on the west coast -- first time since 1996. https://t.co/nFrJXdVkVG | |
| Here’s a favorite scenario: the tie! | |
| Updated | |
| at 4.03pm BST | |
| 3.27pm BST | 3.27pm BST |
| 15:27 | 15:27 |
| Strong early voting numbers for Democrats in Florida | Strong early voting numbers for Democrats in Florida |
| Florida Democrats are keeping pace with Republicans in the first two days of early voting in Florida... | Florida Democrats are keeping pace with Republicans in the first two days of early voting in Florida... |
| After 1.6m Floridians voted in person and by mail, Dems close to catching GOP in early votes. Just 0.43% margin nowhttps://t.co/v0DD8Weq5r | After 1.6m Floridians voted in person and by mail, Dems close to catching GOP in early votes. Just 0.43% margin nowhttps://t.co/v0DD8Weq5r |
| ... which is unusual, writes Caputo, Politico’s man in the Sunshine state: | ... which is unusual, writes Caputo, Politico’s man in the Sunshine state: |
| When it comes to in-person early voting, Democrats tend to outperform Republicans but that doesn’t usually happen until after a full weekend of early voting, particularly after the Sunday “Souls to the Polls” events where African-Americans cast ballots in person after church. | When it comes to in-person early voting, Democrats tend to outperform Republicans but that doesn’t usually happen until after a full weekend of early voting, particularly after the Sunday “Souls to the Polls” events where African-Americans cast ballots in person after church. |
| Steve Schale, a longtime political operative for the Democrats who watches Florida elections at a rare level of detail, likes what he sees this morning: | Steve Schale, a longtime political operative for the Democrats who watches Florida elections at a rare level of detail, likes what he sees this morning: |
| Frankly for the fans of the home team, it is all good news. | Frankly for the fans of the home team, it is all good news. |
| Democrats entered the day down after about 2 weeks of vote by mail returns (and about 1.2 million ballots) about 20,000 votes. This 1.7% GOP advantage compares to a GOP advantage of 5% in 2012. | Democrats entered the day down after about 2 weeks of vote by mail returns (and about 1.2 million ballots) about 20,000 votes. This 1.7% GOP advantage compares to a GOP advantage of 5% in 2012. |
| Then early voting happened. | Then early voting happened. |
| First, not all counties have reported yet (17 yet to report, most are small), but when all said and done, over 300,000 will have voted on day one. Just to put into scale, 1.2 million voted by mail in the first two weeks. | First, not all counties have reported yet (17 yet to report, most are small), but when all said and done, over 300,000 will have voted on day one. Just to put into scale, 1.2 million voted by mail in the first two weeks. |
| When you add in the mail ballots from yesterday, 22% of all the ballots cast in Florida were cast in person yesterday. That is a remarkable number. | When you add in the mail ballots from yesterday, 22% of all the ballots cast in Florida were cast in person yesterday. That is a remarkable number. |
| In total, Democrats reduced the Republican advantage of 1.7% going into yesterday to around 0.5% after day one (still counties reporting, so this number will move around). | In total, Democrats reduced the Republican advantage of 1.7% going into yesterday to around 0.5% after day one (still counties reporting, so this number will move around). |
| Read further. Add in the fact, as Caputo points out, that Trump has trailed Clinton in 10 of the 11 public polls conducted in Florida in October, and it’s looking tough for Trump in his second-home state. | Read further. Add in the fact, as Caputo points out, that Trump has trailed Clinton in 10 of the 11 public polls conducted in Florida in October, and it’s looking tough for Trump in his second-home state. |
| 3.03pm BST | 3.03pm BST |
| 15:03 | 15:03 |
| Trump golf course manager: 95% of employees get health care | Trump golf course manager: 95% of employees get health care |
| Via Politico: | Via Politico: |
| Doral GM David Fedder says 95% of employees get healthcare, so very few on Obamacare. | Doral GM David Fedder says 95% of employees get healthcare, so very few on Obamacare. |
| Weird event. | Weird event. |
| Trump employees parading onto stage to say say nice things about him and working for Trump, at Trump National Doral pic.twitter.com/I9dolCmQEc | Trump employees parading onto stage to say say nice things about him and working for Trump, at Trump National Doral pic.twitter.com/I9dolCmQEc |
| 2.59pm BST | 2.59pm BST |
| 14:59 | 14:59 |
| OK, Trump’s talk about his employees “having a tremendous problem with Obamacare” has just been further muddled by his saying “we take great care of people,” meaning they don’t use Obamacare? | OK, Trump’s talk about his employees “having a tremendous problem with Obamacare” has just been further muddled by his saying “we take great care of people,” meaning they don’t use Obamacare? |
| Trump now says his employees are "not worried about health care because we take great care of people" ... So he does provide benefits? | Trump now says his employees are "not worried about health care because we take great care of people" ... So he does provide benefits? |
| Let’s recap. Trump said this: | Let’s recap. Trump said this: |
| Trump: "All of my employees are having a tremendous problem with Obamacare." | Trump: "All of my employees are having a tremendous problem with Obamacare." |
| This is the very best quote to start the day with. It's...beautiful. https://t.co/fx7YSohQ8U | This is the very best quote to start the day with. It's...beautiful. https://t.co/fx7YSohQ8U |
| Then he said this: | Then he said this: |
| @dmartosko @Bencjacobs He also said his employees were angry about Obamacare. He doesn't know how it works. | @dmartosko @Bencjacobs He also said his employees were angry about Obamacare. He doesn't know how it works. |
| Classic Trump, claiming his employees are "having tremendous problems" with Obamacare AND claiming credit for providing them w/ healthcare. | Classic Trump, claiming his employees are "having tremendous problems" with Obamacare AND claiming credit for providing them w/ healthcare. |
| Responding to Q shouted by reporter about whether his employees are on Obamacare, Trump said, "Some of them, but most of them no." https://t.co/MZKRb28BR0 | Responding to Q shouted by reporter about whether his employees are on Obamacare, Trump said, "Some of them, but most of them no." https://t.co/MZKRb28BR0 |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.00pm BST | at 3.00pm BST |
| 2.54pm BST | 2.54pm BST |
| 14:54 | 14:54 |
| Model fight! | Model fight! |
| We love these kinds of dialogues because they’re interesting and they throw light on how election modeling works and they’re almost certainly good for the overarching quest to model elections well. | We love these kinds of dialogues because they’re interesting and they throw light on how election modeling works and they’re almost certainly good for the overarching quest to model elections well. |
| @JustinWolfers: I'm just going to say this once, but you make some very lazy critiques. Build a model yourself and see how this stuff works. | @JustinWolfers: I'm just going to say this once, but you make some very lazy critiques. Build a model yourself and see how this stuff works. |
| @JustinWolfers: Still lazy. But it's interesting that prediction markets have tracked 538 polls-plus *almost exactly* thru the campaign. | @JustinWolfers: Still lazy. But it's interesting that prediction markets have tracked 538 polls-plus *almost exactly* thru the campaign. |
| @JustinWolfers: You probably also know that most models in low-n environments are overfit and overconfident. We work hard to avoid that. | @JustinWolfers: You probably also know that most models in low-n environments are overfit and overconfident. We work hard to avoid that. |
| 2.48pm BST | 2.48pm BST |
| 14:48 | 14:48 |
| Trump implies he does not provide employees with health insurance | Trump implies he does not provide employees with health insurance |
| Trump appears to claim that he does not provide his employees with employer-subsidized health care, forcing them onto the Obamacare exchanges? | Trump appears to claim that he does not provide his employees with employer-subsidized health care, forcing them onto the Obamacare exchanges? |
| Trump: "All of my employees are having a tremendous problem with Obamacare." | Trump: "All of my employees are having a tremendous problem with Obamacare." |
| Don't his employees get health coverage through their employer? https://t.co/TLZpncca5S | Don't his employees get health coverage through their employer? https://t.co/TLZpncca5S |
| Trump just said his employees are having a hard time with Obamacare.... so .... he doesn't provide benefits? | Trump just said his employees are having a hard time with Obamacare.... so .... he doesn't provide benefits? |
| 2.43pm BST | 2.43pm BST |
| 14:43 | 14:43 |
| The Trump pool reporter today is BuzzFeed’s Rosie Gray, who here reports on an open event we’re just learning the nature of. “Trump hotel event in Doral. He’s currently talking about the hotel’s ‘tremendous success,’ she tweets: | The Trump pool reporter today is BuzzFeed’s Rosie Gray, who here reports on an open event we’re just learning the nature of. “Trump hotel event in Doral. He’s currently talking about the hotel’s ‘tremendous success,’ she tweets: |
| Not the first time Trump's managed to trick the press into covering what is basically a promotional event for a Trump property. | Not the first time Trump's managed to trick the press into covering what is basically a promotional event for a Trump property. |
| 2.41pm BST | 2.41pm BST |
| 14:41 | 14:41 |
| Let’s check in on early voting in Nevada. Reno? | Let’s check in on early voting in Nevada. Reno? |
| Dems won early voting for third straight day in swing county Washoe by substantial margin. pic.twitter.com/q3wxuqvPH5 | Dems won early voting for third straight day in swing county Washoe by substantial margin. pic.twitter.com/q3wxuqvPH5 |
| Las Vegas? | Las Vegas? |
| Democrats added 5,000 votes to their lead in Clark County on Monday. It's now more than 23,500 raw votes. Statewide: 22K. On par with 2012. | Democrats added 5,000 votes to their lead in Clark County on Monday. It's now more than 23,500 raw votes. Statewide: 22K. On par with 2012. |
| Obama, of course, won in NV by 7 in 2012. https://t.co/vY3PtsBIpG | Obama, of course, won in NV by 7 in 2012. https://t.co/vY3PtsBIpG |
| 2.36pm BST | 2.36pm BST |
| 14:36 | 14:36 |
| Whatever Trump’s event is this morning, he has assembled employees of his Doral national golf club for it. Here’s the scene: | Whatever Trump’s event is this morning, he has assembled employees of his Doral national golf club for it. Here’s the scene: |
| Trump doing photo op with Doral employees — with blinding sun directly behind them. Top-notch advance work. pic.twitter.com/6lAiC0DSlI | Trump doing photo op with Doral employees — with blinding sun directly behind them. Top-notch advance work. pic.twitter.com/6lAiC0DSlI |
| 2.32pm BST | 2.32pm BST |
| 14:32 | 14:32 |
| “You’ll Likely Be Reading One Of These 5 Articles The Day After The Election” – that’s the title of a fun new piece by Cook political report editor Dave Wasserman for FiveThirtyEight. Wasserman imagines a Clinton landslide, a Clinton majority, a 2012 redux, a Clinton squeaker – and, yes, a Trump upset. | “You’ll Likely Be Reading One Of These 5 Articles The Day After The Election” – that’s the title of a fun new piece by Cook political report editor Dave Wasserman for FiveThirtyEight. Wasserman imagines a Clinton landslide, a Clinton majority, a 2012 redux, a Clinton squeaker – and, yes, a Trump upset. |
| The piece rather brilliantly imagines the turnout and loyalties of various demographic groups underlying each imagined result, as well as likely down-ballot effects. | The piece rather brilliantly imagines the turnout and loyalties of various demographic groups underlying each imagined result, as well as likely down-ballot effects. |
| In the landslide scenario, Wasserman imagines Clinton with 413 electoral votes, including victories in Arizona, Texas and Georgia; he gives Utah to independent candidate Evan McMullin. In this scenario, senate candidate Patrick Murphy upsets Marco Rubio in Florida and the Democrats end up with a 54-seat senate majority. But, to underscore just how hard this would be, the Democrats still don’t take the House. | In the landslide scenario, Wasserman imagines Clinton with 413 electoral votes, including victories in Arizona, Texas and Georgia; he gives Utah to independent candidate Evan McMullin. In this scenario, senate candidate Patrick Murphy upsets Marco Rubio in Florida and the Democrats end up with a 54-seat senate majority. But, to underscore just how hard this would be, the Democrats still don’t take the House. |
| What about the Trump upset? He gets Pennsylvania (where polling averages have Clinton up six points), Wisconsin (ditto) and New Hampshire (five points), in addition to all the Romney states plus Florida, Iowa and Ohio. Here’s Wasserman’s nut graph for that scenario: | What about the Trump upset? He gets Pennsylvania (where polling averages have Clinton up six points), Wisconsin (ditto) and New Hampshire (five points), in addition to all the Romney states plus Florida, Iowa and Ohio. Here’s Wasserman’s nut graph for that scenario: |
| After one of the worst polling misses of all time, election “forecasters” and experts were left scratching their heads. Trump credited his “Silent Majority” for swarming polling places and himself for leading a blue-collar revolution. Indeed, turnout among whites without a college degree surged from 55 percent in 2012 to 64 percent in 2016, and Trump carried them by 35 percentage points. Validating the “shy Trump voter” theory, Trump defied expectations by nearly tying Clinton among whites with a college degree. | After one of the worst polling misses of all time, election “forecasters” and experts were left scratching their heads. Trump credited his “Silent Majority” for swarming polling places and himself for leading a blue-collar revolution. Indeed, turnout among whites without a college degree surged from 55 percent in 2012 to 64 percent in 2016, and Trump carried them by 35 percentage points. Validating the “shy Trump voter” theory, Trump defied expectations by nearly tying Clinton among whites with a college degree. |
| Read further. | Read further. |
| 2.07pm BST | 2.07pm BST |
| 14:07 | 14:07 |
| Obamacare premiums set to spike, White House says | Obamacare premiums set to spike, White House says |
| Premiums will go up sharply next year under President Barack Obama’s health care law, and many consumers will be down to just one insurer, the administration confirmed Monday. That’s sure to stoke another “Obamacare” controversy days before a presidential election, the AP reports: | Premiums will go up sharply next year under President Barack Obama’s health care law, and many consumers will be down to just one insurer, the administration confirmed Monday. That’s sure to stoke another “Obamacare” controversy days before a presidential election, the AP reports: |
| Before taxpayer-provided subsidies, premiums for a midlevel benchmark plan will increase an average of 25 percent across the 39 states served by the federally run online market, according to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services. Some states will see much bigger jumps, others less. | Before taxpayer-provided subsidies, premiums for a midlevel benchmark plan will increase an average of 25 percent across the 39 states served by the federally run online market, according to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services. Some states will see much bigger jumps, others less. |
| Moreover, about 1 in 5 consumers will have plans only from a single insurer to pick from, after major national carriers such as UnitedHealth Group, Humana and Aetna scaled back their roles. | Moreover, about 1 in 5 consumers will have plans only from a single insurer to pick from, after major national carriers such as UnitedHealth Group, Humana and Aetna scaled back their roles. |
| “Consumers will be faced this year with not only big premium increases but also with a declining number of insurers participating, and that will lead to a tumultuous open enrollment period,” said Larry Levitt, who tracks the health care law for the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation. | “Consumers will be faced this year with not only big premium increases but also with a declining number of insurers participating, and that will lead to a tumultuous open enrollment period,” said Larry Levitt, who tracks the health care law for the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation. |
| Republicans pounced on the numbers as a warning that insurance markets created by the 2010 health overhaul are teetering toward a “death spiral.” Sign-up season starts Nov. 1, about a week before national elections in which the GOP remains committed to a full repeal. | Republicans pounced on the numbers as a warning that insurance markets created by the 2010 health overhaul are teetering toward a “death spiral.” Sign-up season starts Nov. 1, about a week before national elections in which the GOP remains committed to a full repeal. |
| “It’s over for Obamacare,” Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said at a campaign rally Monday evening in Tampa, Florida. | “It’s over for Obamacare,” Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said at a campaign rally Monday evening in Tampa, Florida. |
| Read further here. | Read further here. |
| Anxious to see what @realDonaldTrump will do today to distract from the news of the 25% Obamacare premium increase | Anxious to see what @realDonaldTrump will do today to distract from the news of the 25% Obamacare premium increase |
| One would expect a GOP nominee to hold a press conference with people whose Obamacare premiums have increased, or something. | One would expect a GOP nominee to hold a press conference with people whose Obamacare premiums have increased, or something. |
| 2.03pm BST | 2.03pm BST |
| 14:03 | 14:03 |
| Trump’s press pool reports that they’ve been called to his Doral national golf club outside Miami for an event on whose nature they remain uninformed. Stay tuned. | Trump’s press pool reports that they’ve been called to his Doral national golf club outside Miami for an event on whose nature they remain uninformed. Stay tuned. |
| 1.33pm BST | 1.33pm BST |
| 13:33 | 13:33 |
| Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. It’s a mere fortnight until election day. Though with early voting getting under way in earnest – more than 7 million people have cast ballots already – we’ve actually already arrived. | Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. It’s a mere fortnight until election day. Though with early voting getting under way in earnest – more than 7 million people have cast ballots already – we’ve actually already arrived. |
| Texas jumped into the early voting game yesterday the only way Texas knows how: bigly. Voting was way up in the state’s five biggest counties, the Texas Tribune found, in a sign that could indicate that Hillary Clinton really has made the state semi-competitive, in the face of all relevant precedent. | Texas jumped into the early voting game yesterday the only way Texas knows how: bigly. Voting was way up in the state’s five biggest counties, the Texas Tribune found, in a sign that could indicate that Hillary Clinton really has made the state semi-competitive, in the face of all relevant precedent. |
| My back of the napkin: Early voting up by average of 57% today in Texas' five biggest counties compared to first early voting day in 2012 pic.twitter.com/cnEOtUA1KB | My back of the napkin: Early voting up by average of 57% today in Texas' five biggest counties compared to first early voting day in 2012 pic.twitter.com/cnEOtUA1KB |
| This is what happens when a state becomes a battleground, people start believing their vote matters https://t.co/vOqUeeGQSZ | This is what happens when a state becomes a battleground, people start believing their vote matters https://t.co/vOqUeeGQSZ |
| Bad news for Trump in North Carolina | Bad news for Trump in North Carolina |
| A new edition of the hyper-quant New York Times poll of North Carolina has Clinton with a seven-point lead in the state, which Trump simply must win. Polling averages have Clinton up by about two there. | A new edition of the hyper-quant New York Times poll of North Carolina has Clinton with a seven-point lead in the state, which Trump simply must win. Polling averages have Clinton up by about two there. |
| Clinton leads by 7 points, 46-39 percent, in the final Upshot/Siena poll of North Carolina https://t.co/hIKoOUlwsH | Clinton leads by 7 points, 46-39 percent, in the final Upshot/Siena poll of North Carolina https://t.co/hIKoOUlwsH |
| Where the rallies are today | Where the rallies are today |
| Hillary Clinton has an event in Broward County, Florida, where she’d like to stay close to Barack Obama’s 35-point margin of victory in 2012. Vice-president Joe Biden is in Pittsburgh. Bill Clinton has three events in North Carolina. Chelsea Clinton has three events in Wisconsin. Senator Elizabeth Warren is in Raleigh, North Carolina. Tim Kaine is in New York City for a fundraiser. And Kaine’s wife, Anne Holton, a former judge and state education secretary, has two events in Nevada. | Hillary Clinton has an event in Broward County, Florida, where she’d like to stay close to Barack Obama’s 35-point margin of victory in 2012. Vice-president Joe Biden is in Pittsburgh. Bill Clinton has three events in North Carolina. Chelsea Clinton has three events in Wisconsin. Senator Elizabeth Warren is in Raleigh, North Carolina. Tim Kaine is in New York City for a fundraiser. And Kaine’s wife, Anne Holton, a former judge and state education secretary, has two events in Nevada. |
| Donald Trump has two rallies in Florida. Mike Pence has three rallies in Ohio. | Donald Trump has two rallies in Florida. Mike Pence has three rallies in Ohio. |
| ‘Trump TV’ gets a soft launch | ‘Trump TV’ gets a soft launch |
| The Guardian’s Dave Schilling reports: “I thought there’d be snacks,” RNC strategist Sean Spicer said to the hosts of the debut installment of what the media is generously referring to as Trump TV. | The Guardian’s Dave Schilling reports: “I thought there’d be snacks,” RNC strategist Sean Spicer said to the hosts of the debut installment of what the media is generously referring to as Trump TV. |
| We were all in a bit of a frothy lather over this being the long-awaited rollout of Donald Trump’s real 2016 endgame – a 24-hour news empire to go toe-to-toe with Fox News for the eyeballs of America’s far right. At last, Trump would reveal his true intentions. | We were all in a bit of a frothy lather over this being the long-awaited rollout of Donald Trump’s real 2016 endgame – a 24-hour news empire to go toe-to-toe with Fox News for the eyeballs of America’s far right. At last, Trump would reveal his true intentions. |
| Instead, we got a grown man asking where the craft services table is. | Instead, we got a grown man asking where the craft services table is. |
| This is not Trump TV, declared the hosts – Trump advisers Boris Epshteyn and Cliff Sims. It is, instead a program called Live from Trump Tower – “an effort by us to reach out to you”, they said. | This is not Trump TV, declared the hosts – Trump advisers Boris Epshteyn and Cliff Sims. It is, instead a program called Live from Trump Tower – “an effort by us to reach out to you”, they said. |
| But there is no discernible entertainment value to be had in Live from Trump Tower, unless your idea of a good time is significantly less professional than InfoWars, but with fewer insane people removing articles of clothing. | But there is no discernible entertainment value to be had in Live from Trump Tower, unless your idea of a good time is significantly less professional than InfoWars, but with fewer insane people removing articles of clothing. |
| Obama does ‘mean tweets’ | Obama does ‘mean tweets’ |
| Thank you for reading and please join us in the comments. | Thank you for reading and please join us in the comments. |