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Clinton support appears strong in Texas and Florida early voting – election live | Clinton support appears strong in Texas and Florida early voting – election live |
(35 minutes later) | |
5.11pm BST | |
17:11 | |
Retired general John Allen reprises his role at the Democratic national convention in a new ad for Clinton: | |
New Clinton TV ad features ret. Gen. John Allen, who says Trump's rhetoric on ISIS "implies a complete ignorance of the reality". pic.twitter.com/H9iy8LDAtZ | |
On Monday, Trump claimed to have been endorsed “conceptually” by the military: | |
Trump to FL TV: "I’ve been endorsed largely, at least conceptually, by the military” ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? https://t.co/16YMnoYSNF | |
While Clinton has received more endorsements and more high-profile endorsements from retired military officers, polling of rank-and-file members of the military suggest a preference for Trump. A Military Times survey of nearly 2,500 active-duty troops between 12-14 October found that 41% planned to vote for Trump versus 21% for Clinton. | |
5.05pm BST | |
17:05 | |
Are you working on your map? Here’s Fox News – with Clinton winning the election with 307 electoral votes (including Florida) not even counting toss-up results: | |
UPDATED @FoxNews 2016 Scorecard - Iowa & Maine's 2nd CD go lean R to toss-up, Indiana moves solid R to lean R pic.twitter.com/9SMpuhws5f | |
4.46pm BST | |
16:46 | |
Inside Donald Trump’s One-Stop Parties: Attendees Recall Cocaine and Very Young Models – Michael Gross writes in the Daily Beast: | |
Both confirmed that Trump, as I’ve reported, used to host parties in suites at the Plaza Hotel when he owned it, where young women and girls were introduced to older, richer men. This is hardly aberrant behavior in the modeling business. Indeed, it is standard operating procedure. | |
But both men also put Donald Trump in the room with cocaine, very young women and underage girls, and rich, old men there to—pardon my language, but if the Times can say pussy on its front page, I can say this—fuck them. | |
Read further. | |
4.36pm BST | 4.36pm BST |
16:36 | 16:36 |
Become a Guardian member | Become a Guardian member |
4.32pm BST | 4.32pm BST |
16:32 | 16:32 |
In the past hour, Trump has tweeted seven times. Six of his tweets were about spiking Obamacare premiums (see earlier). The other tweet is a shrill reaction to news of Clinton’s early voting strength: | In the past hour, Trump has tweeted seven times. Six of his tweets were about spiking Obamacare premiums (see earlier). The other tweet is a shrill reaction to news of Clinton’s early voting strength: |
Get out and vote! I am your voice and I will fight for you! We will make America great again! https://t.co/XXvLRlhSaz | Get out and vote! I am your voice and I will fight for you! We will make America great again! https://t.co/XXvLRlhSaz |
4.25pm BST | 4.25pm BST |
16:25 | 16:25 |
Barack Obama is still president until the 20 January inauguration of the next president. | Barack Obama is still president until the 20 January inauguration of the next president. |
But after the election, Obama is outta here... for a week at least: | But after the election, Obama is outta here... for a week at least: |
No matter what happens Nov. 8, @POTUS is leaving the country. White House announces he will travel to Greece, Germany & Peru Nov. 14-21 | No matter what happens Nov. 8, @POTUS is leaving the country. White House announces he will travel to Greece, Germany & Peru Nov. 14-21 |
Greece, Germany and Peru is a pretty far-flung holiday trip. | Greece, Germany and Peru is a pretty far-flung holiday trip. |
4.17pm BST | 4.17pm BST |
16:17 | 16:17 |
Trump describes fear of failure in candid pre-race interviews | Trump describes fear of failure in candid pre-race interviews |
This is quite a read. | This is quite a read. |
We obtained 5 hours of interviews that reveal Trump's fear of failure and embarrassment. Story and podcast: https://t.co/Kyjt1um3uY | We obtained 5 hours of interviews that reveal Trump's fear of failure and embarrassment. Story and podcast: https://t.co/Kyjt1um3uY |
From the piece: | From the piece: |
The recordings reveal a man who is fixated on his own celebrity, anxious about losing his status and contemptuous of those who fall from grace. They capture the visceral pleasure he derives from fighting, his willful lack of interest in history, his reluctance to reflect on his life and his belief that most people do not deserve his respect. | The recordings reveal a man who is fixated on his own celebrity, anxious about losing his status and contemptuous of those who fall from grace. They capture the visceral pleasure he derives from fighting, his willful lack of interest in history, his reluctance to reflect on his life and his belief that most people do not deserve his respect. |
In the interviews, Mr. Trump makes clear just how difficult it is for him to imagine — let alone accept — defeat. | In the interviews, Mr. Trump makes clear just how difficult it is for him to imagine — let alone accept — defeat. |
“I never had a failure,” Mr. Trump said in one of the interviews, despite his repeated corporate bankruptcies and business setbacks, “because I always turned a failure into a success.” | “I never had a failure,” Mr. Trump said in one of the interviews, despite his repeated corporate bankruptcies and business setbacks, “because I always turned a failure into a success.” |
The interviews were conducted in 2014 by Michael D’Antonio, a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter who later wrote a biography of Mr. Trump called “The Truth About Trump.” [...] | The interviews were conducted in 2014 by Michael D’Antonio, a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter who later wrote a biography of Mr. Trump called “The Truth About Trump.” [...] |
Over the past few weeks, Mr. D’Antonio gave The New York Times access to the original audio as well as transcripts of his interviews with Mr. Trump, Mr. Trump’s first wife, Ivana, and his three oldest children. The Times is using them as the basis for this article and a two-part episode of its election podcast, “The Run-Up.” | Over the past few weeks, Mr. D’Antonio gave The New York Times access to the original audio as well as transcripts of his interviews with Mr. Trump, Mr. Trump’s first wife, Ivana, and his three oldest children. The Times is using them as the basis for this article and a two-part episode of its election podcast, “The Run-Up.” |
Here’s a pretty amazing anecdote: | Here’s a pretty amazing anecdote: |
“And when Mr. Trump feels he has been made a fool of, his response can be volcanic. Ivana Trump told Mr. D’Antonio about a Colorado ski vacation she took with Mr. Trump soon after they began dating. The future Mrs. Trump had not told her boyfriend that she was an accomplished skier. As she recalls it, Mr. Trump went down the hill first and waited for her at the bottom: | “And when Mr. Trump feels he has been made a fool of, his response can be volcanic. Ivana Trump told Mr. D’Antonio about a Colorado ski vacation she took with Mr. Trump soon after they began dating. The future Mrs. Trump had not told her boyfriend that she was an accomplished skier. As she recalls it, Mr. Trump went down the hill first and waited for her at the bottom: |
IVANA TRUMP: So he goes and stops, and he says, “Come on, baby. Come on, baby.” I went up. I went two flips up in the air, two flips in front of him. I disappeared. Donald was so angry, he took off his skis, his ski boots, and walked up to the restaurant. ... He could not take it. He could not take it. | IVANA TRUMP: So he goes and stops, and he says, “Come on, baby. Come on, baby.” I went up. I went two flips up in the air, two flips in front of him. I disappeared. Donald was so angry, he took off his skis, his ski boots, and walked up to the restaurant. ... He could not take it. He could not take it. |
Updated | Updated |
at 4.20pm BST | at 4.20pm BST |
4.10pm BST | 4.10pm BST |
16:10 | 16:10 |
Hillary Clinton turns 69 tomorrow. | Hillary Clinton turns 69 tomorrow. |
.@HillaryClinton gives a thumbs up when asked about how Stevie Wonder performed last night at her fundraiser/early birthday party. pic.twitter.com/vxKHN3aZn7 | .@HillaryClinton gives a thumbs up when asked about how Stevie Wonder performed last night at her fundraiser/early birthday party. pic.twitter.com/vxKHN3aZn7 |
4.02pm BST | 4.02pm BST |
16:02 | 16:02 |
Reader challenge: what's your map look like? | Reader challenge: what's your map look like? |
This is a two-part challenge, actually. The first part is, go to 270towin.com and fill in the electoral map how you think it will come out. What’s your final electoral vote tally? | This is a two-part challenge, actually. The first part is, go to 270towin.com and fill in the electoral map how you think it will come out. What’s your final electoral vote tally? |
The second part is, predict what time the election will be called. You may find this AP record of when each state was called in 2012 useful. The 2012 election was called by AP at 11.38pm ET. | The second part is, predict what time the election will be called. You may find this AP record of when each state was called in 2012 useful. The 2012 election was called by AP at 11.38pm ET. |
My current electoral map, prediction-wise. I think all swings will swing away from Trump at this point, for obvious reasons. pic.twitter.com/oo7c7VdQou | My current electoral map, prediction-wise. I think all swings will swing away from Trump at this point, for obvious reasons. pic.twitter.com/oo7c7VdQou |
That map would elect a president before polls close on the west coast -- first time since 1996. https://t.co/nFrJXdVkVG | That map would elect a president before polls close on the west coast -- first time since 1996. https://t.co/nFrJXdVkVG |
Here’s a favorite scenario: the tie! | Here’s a favorite scenario: the tie! |
Updated | Updated |
at 4.03pm BST | at 4.03pm BST |
3.27pm BST | 3.27pm BST |
15:27 | 15:27 |
Strong early voting numbers for Democrats in Florida | Strong early voting numbers for Democrats in Florida |
Florida Democrats are keeping pace with Republicans in the first two days of early voting in Florida... | Florida Democrats are keeping pace with Republicans in the first two days of early voting in Florida... |
After 1.6m Floridians voted in person and by mail, Dems close to catching GOP in early votes. Just 0.43% margin nowhttps://t.co/v0DD8Weq5r | After 1.6m Floridians voted in person and by mail, Dems close to catching GOP in early votes. Just 0.43% margin nowhttps://t.co/v0DD8Weq5r |
... which is unusual, writes Caputo, Politico’s man in the Sunshine state: | ... which is unusual, writes Caputo, Politico’s man in the Sunshine state: |
When it comes to in-person early voting, Democrats tend to outperform Republicans but that doesn’t usually happen until after a full weekend of early voting, particularly after the Sunday “Souls to the Polls” events where African-Americans cast ballots in person after church. | When it comes to in-person early voting, Democrats tend to outperform Republicans but that doesn’t usually happen until after a full weekend of early voting, particularly after the Sunday “Souls to the Polls” events where African-Americans cast ballots in person after church. |
Steve Schale, a longtime political operative for the Democrats who watches Florida elections at a rare level of detail, likes what he sees this morning: | Steve Schale, a longtime political operative for the Democrats who watches Florida elections at a rare level of detail, likes what he sees this morning: |
Frankly for the fans of the home team, it is all good news. | Frankly for the fans of the home team, it is all good news. |
Democrats entered the day down after about 2 weeks of vote by mail returns (and about 1.2 million ballots) about 20,000 votes. This 1.7% GOP advantage compares to a GOP advantage of 5% in 2012. | Democrats entered the day down after about 2 weeks of vote by mail returns (and about 1.2 million ballots) about 20,000 votes. This 1.7% GOP advantage compares to a GOP advantage of 5% in 2012. |
Then early voting happened. | Then early voting happened. |
First, not all counties have reported yet (17 yet to report, most are small), but when all said and done, over 300,000 will have voted on day one. Just to put into scale, 1.2 million voted by mail in the first two weeks. | First, not all counties have reported yet (17 yet to report, most are small), but when all said and done, over 300,000 will have voted on day one. Just to put into scale, 1.2 million voted by mail in the first two weeks. |
When you add in the mail ballots from yesterday, 22% of all the ballots cast in Florida were cast in person yesterday. That is a remarkable number. | When you add in the mail ballots from yesterday, 22% of all the ballots cast in Florida were cast in person yesterday. That is a remarkable number. |
In total, Democrats reduced the Republican advantage of 1.7% going into yesterday to around 0.5% after day one (still counties reporting, so this number will move around). | In total, Democrats reduced the Republican advantage of 1.7% going into yesterday to around 0.5% after day one (still counties reporting, so this number will move around). |
Read further. Add in the fact, as Caputo points out, that Trump has trailed Clinton in 10 of the 11 public polls conducted in Florida in October, and it’s looking tough for Trump in his second-home state. | Read further. Add in the fact, as Caputo points out, that Trump has trailed Clinton in 10 of the 11 public polls conducted in Florida in October, and it’s looking tough for Trump in his second-home state. |
3.03pm BST | 3.03pm BST |
15:03 | 15:03 |
Trump golf course manager: 95% of employees get health care | Trump golf course manager: 95% of employees get health care |
Via Politico: | Via Politico: |
Doral GM David Fedder says 95% of employees get healthcare, so very few on Obamacare. | Doral GM David Fedder says 95% of employees get healthcare, so very few on Obamacare. |
Weird event. | Weird event. |
Trump employees parading onto stage to say say nice things about him and working for Trump, at Trump National Doral pic.twitter.com/I9dolCmQEc | Trump employees parading onto stage to say say nice things about him and working for Trump, at Trump National Doral pic.twitter.com/I9dolCmQEc |