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Brexit deal: Tory ministers meet to decide fate of agreement – Politics live Brexit deal: Tory ministers meet to decide fate of agreement – Politics live
(35 minutes later)
Ireland’s taoiseach Leo Varadkar is expected to make a statement at noon in the Irish parliament, sources say.
This is from Sarah Vine, the Daily Mail columnist who is married to Michael Gove, the Brexiter environment secretary.
On the whole quite a lot of willy waving going on this morning #BrexitDeal
That seems to be a reference to people like Mark Francois. (See 9.42am.) Gove himself is reportedly backing the deal, although apparently with certain reservations.
Here’s more pressure from the European Research Group, via the BBC’s Norman Smith:
“If the officers won’t stop this then the poor bloody infantry will have to” - ERG bod on PMs Brexit deal
Mark Francois, deputy chair of the European Research Group, the faction representing around 50 Tory MPs pushing for a harder Brexit, told the Today programme this morning that he thought there would be cabinet resignations today over the Brexit deal. But he would not predict how many.
Cabinet ministers would have to make a choice, he said. He told the programme:
People around the cabinet table, in their heart of hearts, know that.
We and the rest of the country will be watching very carefully to see what happens at cabinet today, but there are a number of cabinet ministers who deep down very much oppose this.
They will have to look into their hearts and decide whether a Jaguar and a red box and a bunch of sycophantic civil servants calling you ‘Minister’ is more important that the destiny of your country.
Boris Johnson, the Brexiter former foreign secretary, says the Times report claiming that Sabine Weyand, deputy to the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, thinks the EU would “retain all the controls” under this deal (see 8.25am), reinforces his claim that it is unacceptable.
Sabine Weyand in The Times clear: if agreed, the CU backstop will not be temporary but the minimum basis for our future trading relationship, with high alignment and 'EU control' - this means super-canada impossible.Cabinet must live up to its responsibilities & stop this deal
Sophie in ‘t Veld, a Dutch MEP who is the deputy to the European parliament’s chief spokesman, Guy Verhofstadt, told the Today programme this morning that the proposal to keep the UK in a temporary customs union was not “part of a cunning plan of the devious Europeans to keep the UK in a customs union forever”. She explained:
None of us, neither you or I, have actually read the document, but from what we hear this is going to be part of the backstop solution and a new relationship will have to be negotiated between the UK and the EU. It all depends on how the negotiations proceed.
She also said the “real problem” in the negotiation was in London. She went on:
The real problem doesn’t lie there. The real problem lies within the UK, within the government, within the Tory party, between the parties, because there has not been any agreement over the relationship with the EU between any of them over the last two years.
That is the real problem, because if the UK had a single agreed line, backed by the majority of parties and the majority of MPs, then the whole situation would not be so unclear.
The Irish government has said it does not want to see any “hardening” of the border in the Irish sea.The Irish government has said it does not want to see any “hardening” of the border in the Irish sea.
Senator Neale Richmond, the only politician put up by the government to do media on Wednesday, also hinted that the prime minister Leo Varadkar had not seen the full text of the withdrawal agreement.Senator Neale Richmond, the only politician put up by the government to do media on Wednesday, also hinted that the prime minister Leo Varadkar had not seen the full text of the withdrawal agreement.
Varadkar, and his deputy Simon Coveney, had a two hour tele-conference call with Ireland’s “sherpa” in Brussels last night. He has called his ministers to a specially convened cabinet meeting at 9.30 this morning.Varadkar, and his deputy Simon Coveney, had a two hour tele-conference call with Ireland’s “sherpa” in Brussels last night. He has called his ministers to a specially convened cabinet meeting at 9.30 this morning.
Richmond said the “priority” for Ireland was a future relationship with the UK to protect the close trading relationship and it was in nobody’s interest to see the “backstop come into play”. Richmond said the “priority” for Ireland was a future relationship with the UK to protect the close trading relationship and it was in nobody’s interest to see the “backstop come into play”. He told RTE’s Morning Ireland:
He said Ireland shares the DUP’s desire no extra barriers in the Irish sea and had “no ambition to humiliate” anyone in Northern Ireland, as suggested by the party’s Sammy Wilson in the past 24 hours. The priority will always be that in the next transition period we can negotiate that deep and meaningful trade, customs and regulatory arrangement between the EU and the UK as a whole. That will ensure not only is there no hard border on the island of Ireland but there is no hardening of the border down the Irish sea. That’s something the government is keen to achieve and I think can achieve.
Asked whether the deal was not as the DUP’s Sammy Wilson has said a “humiliation” for the UK and Northern Ireland, Richmond said that was far from the case.
“There is no ambition to humiliate anyone. Whatever the deal will be it won’t be a good deal, because there simply is no such thing as a good deal,” he told RTE’s Morning Ireland.
And here is Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Scotland’s first minister, making the same point that Ian Blackford was making on Good Morning Scotland.And here is Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Scotland’s first minister, making the same point that Ian Blackford was making on Good Morning Scotland.
Indeed. PM’s approach would take Scotland out of the single market (despite our 62% remain vote) but leave us competing for investment with Northern Ireland that is effectively still in it. https://t.co/o6veQIljoWIndeed. PM’s approach would take Scotland out of the single market (despite our 62% remain vote) but leave us competing for investment with Northern Ireland that is effectively still in it. https://t.co/o6veQIljoW
After DUP chief whip Jeffrey Donaldson’s warning that May’s deal gives ammunition to the Scottish Nationalists, SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford spoke the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland programme to insist that a separate deal for Northern Ireland should mean a separate one for Scotland. He said:After DUP chief whip Jeffrey Donaldson’s warning that May’s deal gives ammunition to the Scottish Nationalists, SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford spoke the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland programme to insist that a separate deal for Northern Ireland should mean a separate one for Scotland. He said:
I’ve said repeatedly to the prime minister that the one deal that can command a majority in the house of Commons is to stay in the single market and the customs union. As far as we understand things this morning it looks as if it’s going to be a different deal for Northern Ireland. Now if it is permissible for Northern Ireland to stay in the single market as part of the backstop, then of course Scotland should be given the same opportunity.I’ve said repeatedly to the prime minister that the one deal that can command a majority in the house of Commons is to stay in the single market and the customs union. As far as we understand things this morning it looks as if it’s going to be a different deal for Northern Ireland. Now if it is permissible for Northern Ireland to stay in the single market as part of the backstop, then of course Scotland should be given the same opportunity.
Referring to the letter written last night by himself, Jeremy Corbyn, Vince Cable, and Liz Saville Roberts, calling for May to allow amendments to the proposed deal (see below), Blackford said: “I think it’s important that the normal practice is followed and I’m grateful that we’ve had this cross-party unity.”Referring to the letter written last night by himself, Jeremy Corbyn, Vince Cable, and Liz Saville Roberts, calling for May to allow amendments to the proposed deal (see below), Blackford said: “I think it’s important that the normal practice is followed and I’m grateful that we’ve had this cross-party unity.”
He added: “Parliament has got to have the ability to amend what the government is putting forward.” It is “not acceptable” that the government is only willing to take amendments after the meaningful vote.He added: “Parliament has got to have the ability to amend what the government is putting forward.” It is “not acceptable” that the government is only willing to take amendments after the meaningful vote.
Blackford also reminded listeners that Scottish secretary David Mundell and Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson – who is currently on maternity leave - reportedly threatened to resign if there was a differentiated deal for NI.Blackford also reminded listeners that Scottish secretary David Mundell and Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson – who is currently on maternity leave - reportedly threatened to resign if there was a differentiated deal for NI.
Parliament is sovereign and must have a truly meaningful vote on any Brexit agreement. We demand that Parliament is able to amend and propose alternatives to whatever deal the Government brings forward. pic.twitter.com/0Wh0pUFfq0Parliament is sovereign and must have a truly meaningful vote on any Brexit agreement. We demand that Parliament is able to amend and propose alternatives to whatever deal the Government brings forward. pic.twitter.com/0Wh0pUFfq0
This is what Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, told Sky News as she was leaving Northern Ireland for London. She said:This is what Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, told Sky News as she was leaving Northern Ireland for London. She said:
It is worrying times, there’s no doubt about that. What we’ll be looking at is the text, hopefully we’ll actually get to see the text so that we can make our own judgment on that.It is worrying times, there’s no doubt about that. What we’ll be looking at is the text, hopefully we’ll actually get to see the text so that we can make our own judgment on that.
The prime minister is very clear about where we stand on all of this. As you know we’ve written to her, she’s very clear that we cannot be separated from the rest of the UK, either in terms of customs or indeed in terms of regulatory alignment either.The prime minister is very clear about where we stand on all of this. As you know we’ve written to her, she’s very clear that we cannot be separated from the rest of the UK, either in terms of customs or indeed in terms of regulatory alignment either.
Regulatory alignment would mean that we would diverge from the rest of the UK, we would stay in the single market, whereas the rest of the United Kingdom would not.Regulatory alignment would mean that we would diverge from the rest of the UK, we would stay in the single market, whereas the rest of the United Kingdom would not.
We would have a democratic deficit insofar as we would be taking rules from the European Union and would have no way in influencing those rules.We would have a democratic deficit insofar as we would be taking rules from the European Union and would have no way in influencing those rules.
It’s a question of whether we’re separating the union – whether we are dealing with the United Kingdom in a way that leaves us adrift in the future.It’s a question of whether we’re separating the union – whether we are dealing with the United Kingdom in a way that leaves us adrift in the future.
As the leader of unionism in Northern Ireland I’m not about to agree to that.As the leader of unionism in Northern Ireland I’m not about to agree to that.
Andrea Leadsom, the Brexiter leader of the Commons, was also identified as a cabinet minister who might resign over the Brexit deal - not least because on Sunday she said the UK would have to be able to leave any customs union with the EU unilaterally, something that does not seem to be possible under the deal, on the basis of what is being reported.Andrea Leadsom, the Brexiter leader of the Commons, was also identified as a cabinet minister who might resign over the Brexit deal - not least because on Sunday she said the UK would have to be able to leave any customs union with the EU unilaterally, something that does not seem to be possible under the deal, on the basis of what is being reported.
But this morning, speaking to reporters as she left her home, she sounded positive about what was on offer. She said:But this morning, speaking to reporters as she left her home, she sounded positive about what was on offer. She said:
I’ve had a good conversation with the prime minister and I’m looking at the details of the deal today and I’m extremely optimistic that we’ll have a good deal, but I’m looking at the details today.I’ve had a good conversation with the prime minister and I’m looking at the details of the deal today and I’m extremely optimistic that we’ll have a good deal, but I’m looking at the details today.
Andrew Brigden MP, one of Theresa May’s fiercest critics, predicted that if cabinet ministers did not resign over the agreement more Tory MPs would demand a leadership contest.Andrew Brigden MP, one of Theresa May’s fiercest critics, predicted that if cabinet ministers did not resign over the agreement more Tory MPs would demand a leadership contest.
A contest would be triggered if 48 Tory MPs write to the chair of the 1922 committee demanding a change of leader.A contest would be triggered if 48 Tory MPs write to the chair of the 1922 committee demanding a change of leader.
It is understood that the number submitted, including a letter by Bridgen, is close to that threshold.It is understood that the number submitted, including a letter by Bridgen, is close to that threshold.
Speaking to BBC Breakfast Bridgen he said:Speaking to BBC Breakfast Bridgen he said:
Further details of this dodgy deal will come out later on. The cabinet are meeting at 2pm. Cabinet ministers with honour would resign over these proposals if they can’t persuade the prime minister to drop them. But there is not as much honour in politics as perhaps there should be. Failing that I think there will be the 48 letters in very imminently once the details of this proposal are out in the public domain. Under the rules of the 1922 committee, it would probably be Monday if the letters come at the end of this week.Further details of this dodgy deal will come out later on. The cabinet are meeting at 2pm. Cabinet ministers with honour would resign over these proposals if they can’t persuade the prime minister to drop them. But there is not as much honour in politics as perhaps there should be. Failing that I think there will be the 48 letters in very imminently once the details of this proposal are out in the public domain. Under the rules of the 1922 committee, it would probably be Monday if the letters come at the end of this week.
Bridgen admitted that he had not seen the document being discussed by the cabinet today. But he claimed that under the backstop arrangement, outlined in the document, the UK would in effect lose its right to leave the EU. He said:Bridgen admitted that he had not seen the document being discussed by the cabinet today. But he claimed that under the backstop arrangement, outlined in the document, the UK would in effect lose its right to leave the EU. He said:
We are going to be stuck in the backstop forever, why would the EU ever let us out of it? So we will be in a customs union that will neutralise all the economic benefits of leaving the European Union - no ability to do free trade deals. It is exactly where the European Union want to keep us pinned.We are going to be stuck in the backstop forever, why would the EU ever let us out of it? So we will be in a customs union that will neutralise all the economic benefits of leaving the European Union - no ability to do free trade deals. It is exactly where the European Union want to keep us pinned.
We know the prime minister likes to have a little dance, but it is clear with this withdrawal agreement she is certainly dancing to Mr Barnier and the EU’s tune, so I will not be supporting it. If I did I would not be able to look my constituents in the eye who overwhelmingly voted to leave the European Union. I wouldn’t be able to look myself in the mirror either.We know the prime minister likes to have a little dance, but it is clear with this withdrawal agreement she is certainly dancing to Mr Barnier and the EU’s tune, so I will not be supporting it. If I did I would not be able to look my constituents in the eye who overwhelmingly voted to leave the European Union. I wouldn’t be able to look myself in the mirror either.
Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, was in Downing Street this morning for a meeting with Theresa May about the deal. She arrived at about 8am, and left about half an hour later. As she left, she did not respond to questions from reporters.Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, was in Downing Street this morning for a meeting with Theresa May about the deal. She arrived at about 8am, and left about half an hour later. As she left, she did not respond to questions from reporters.
Mordaunt is near the top of lists of cabinet ministers most likely to resign today over the Brexit deal - although of course one of the key facts about the situation at the moment is that, as of now, no one has resigned over the deal agreed yesterday - even though cabinet ministers have seen the details.Mordaunt is near the top of lists of cabinet ministers most likely to resign today over the Brexit deal - although of course one of the key facts about the situation at the moment is that, as of now, no one has resigned over the deal agreed yesterday - even though cabinet ministers have seen the details.
City traders are preparing for the pound to either soar or tumble once this afternoon’s cabinet meeting has played out.City traders are preparing for the pound to either soar or tumble once this afternoon’s cabinet meeting has played out.
Sterling ‘implied volatility’ (which measures investors buying protection against sharp swings in the currency) has jumped this morning, to its highest level since the 2017 general election.Sterling ‘implied volatility’ (which measures investors buying protection against sharp swings in the currency) has jumped this morning, to its highest level since the 2017 general election.
It shows today’s Brexit cabinet meeting is the most significant event for the UK economy in over a year.It shows today’s Brexit cabinet meeting is the most significant event for the UK economy in over a year.
Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, is flying to London, Sky’s David Blevins reports. She has said she is not willing to see Northern Ireland “cast adrift”.
BREAKING: DUP leader Arlene Foster is en route to London. She’s told @SkyNews these are “worrying times”, that she hopes to see the text today but is “not prepared” to see NI “cast adrift in the future.”
On the Today programme Katya Adler, the BBC’s Europe editor, has just said that some EU ambassadors at the Friday meeting dispute the account printed in the Times of what Sabine Weyand said. (See 8.25am.) Adler said one person who was there just said Weyand described the withdrawal agreement text as a basis for future discussions.
One of the most significant revelations in the papers today is in the Times splash (paywall), which quotes a very senior EU official saying the EU would “retain all the controls” after Brexit under the plan negotiated in Brussels. The paper says:
In a further concession Mrs May has agreed to “level playing field” measures tying Britain to EU rules in areas such as state aid and environmental and workers’ rights protections during the backstop.
Sabine Weyand, the deputy to Michel Barnier, Europe’s chief negotiator, told European ambassadors that this concession would be used as the basis of the future relationship with the EU. She also said that Britain “would have to swallow a link between access to products and fisheries in future agreements”, in a leaked note of the meeting on Friday.
“We should be in the best negotiation position for the future relationship. This requires the customs union as the basis of the future relationship,” Ms Weyand said. “They must align their rules but the EU will retain all the controls. They apply the same rules. UK wants a lot more from future relationship, so EU retains its leverage.”
The briefing underlines fears among Brexiteers that the temporary customs union during the backstop will become the long-term basis for the relationship with the EU, prohibiting new trade deals and forcing the government to adopt all new EU rules and regulations regardless of whether they are in Britain’s interest.
Asked about this in his Today interview, William Hague dismissed the revelation. He said people should wait to see what is in the agreement, instead of worrying about leaks from “somebody you’ve never heard of before”.
Hague might regret being so glib. Anyone who has followed the negotiation closely knows exactly who Weyand is, and the last time he claimed not to have heard of someone on the Today programme, he was referring to Arron Banks, who was then a former Tory voter who had decided to give £100,000 to Ukip. Banks was so angry about the insult that he upped his donation to £1m.
The Remain-supporting Tory MP Anna Soubry repeated her backing for a second referendum, but she stopped short of saying she would reject the current deal in parliament.
She told Today:
I have always said that the prime minister could deliver on the referendum by us leaving the European Union but in effect remaining in the old common market, the single market, and a customs union. So how near that is going to be to this deal obviously remains to be seen.”
Things have changed so much and people, including myself, have learnt so much more about all of this, I think it is right that whatever the deal is, and that it includes if parliament can’t pass or won’t pass the prime minister’s deal, that it goes back to the British people.
The best deal that we have with the European Union is the deal that we currently have with European Union. I think there are a lot of people who as they have seen Brexit unfold, they have looked at the reality of it, are now understanding and realising that the truth is that our country has made a terrible mistake. And we should have the right to revisit the decision that we made over two and a half years ago.
We are a member of the European Union, we have not left ... If we leave we will never get the same terms that we have now.
Hague says, if he were still in cabinet, he would advise colleagues to look at “the big picture”. If you want to maintain trade with the EU, and keep the UK together, then a deal is going to look pretty much like this one, he says.
And he says, if the cabinet does not stick together, there is no attractive alternative government available to the country.
Q: As Tory leader you said you wanted to be in Europe but not run by it. Isn’t this the opposite?
Hague says, under this deal, the UK would be able to have control of its own immigration policy. It would also stop paying into the EU’s budget, and leave the common agricultural policy and the common fisheries policies.
He suggests it was never realistic to think the UK could leave the EU without making compromises.
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Matthew Weaver.
William Hague, the Conservative former foreign secretary and former party leader, is about to be interviewed on the Today programme about the Brexit deal.
Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage has branded the agreement “the worst deal in history”.
Speaking to ITV’s Good Morning Britain he said: “We’re giving away in excess of £40bn in return for precisely nothing. Trapped still inside the European Union’s rule book, continuing free movement of people, continuing with a foreign court having a say over our own country. Nothing has been achieved other than giving away a huge sum of money.”
He described Theresa May as “not just the worst prime minister I’ve ever seen but perhaps the most dishonest one as well”.
He added:
Get rid of her. Let’s get somebody else, let’s come back to the EU and say ‘look, let’s have a simple free trade deal or we are leaving on WTO [World Trade Organisation] terms’. And do you know what? They’ll bite our arms off.
Asked what he thinks will happen next, he said: “I believe that the cabinet will collapse, I believe that parliament will collapse. I think we have a career political class who will put their own reselection within their parties above the interests of the nation and our democratic system.”
There’s little sign of Brexit enthusiasm in the City of London this morning.
Yesterday sterling hit a seven-month high against the euro, as the markets welcomed the news that a draft withdrawal agreement was ready.
However, the excitement was soon tempered by the criticism from Brexit-leaning MPs overnight; investors are now fretting that some cabinet members might not back the plan.
Jeffrey Donaldson’s warning that May’s plan “isn’t the right Brexit” also sent a shiver through the trading floors.
This means City firms are now trying to juggle the parliamentary arithmetic, to decide if the deal is likely to be backed by enough MPs.
Kallum Pickering of German bank Berenberg told clients this morning:
Until the text of the agreement is published, and the various Brexit-factions of government take their positions, it is difficult to judge exactly how the numbers are shaping up ahead of the parliamentary vote. Suffice to say that, the Prime Minister may have a political mountain to climb.
While the whips are likely to be already doing the rounds in her own party, May will probably be forced to court opposition bench MPs to boost the chances of getting the deal through.
So the pound is bobbing around the $1.30 mark against the US dollar this morning, still 13.5% below its levels before the referendum:
Next up on Today is the shadow business secretary, Rebecca Long-Bailey, who was repeatedly pressed on whether Brexit can be stopped - a reference to Jeremy Corbyn’s claim to German newspaper last week that Labour could not stop Brexit.
She dismisses the question as hypothetical and refused to give a straight answer.
“What we have called for is a permanent customs union arrangement,” she said.
Asked if Labour will back the deal she said Labour MP’s would have to see the details first. “When we see the detail we will make an assessment,” she said.
She added:
We will have dissect the 500 pages that will be put to us very soon I hope ... But based on what we have seen so far I don’t think we are going to be presented with a good deal.
DUP chief whip Jeffrey Donaldson has confirmed his party’s opposition to the agreement.
“From what we have seen and heard we do not believe this is the best deal,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
He said: “We want to see Brexit occur, but this is not the right Briexit because it doesn’t give the UK as a whole the opportunity to pursue free trade deals.”
Donaldson, who has the crucial job of marshalling the 10 DUP MPs in Parliament, added: “The problem is this fundamentally undermines the constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom. If it wants to get out of this binding agreement then it will have to leave Northern Ireland behind ... and that will inevitably put pressure on Scotland. The Scottish Nationalists will use this deal to pursue their agenda of an independent Scotland.”
When it was put to him that the agreement avoided a border in the Irish Sea, Donaldson said Northern Ireland would be treated differently under the backstop arrangement.
He pointed to the swimming pool analogy outlined by ITV’s Robert Preston, under which Northern Ireland would be in the deep end in terms of following EU rules.
No we are not [treated the same]. I think it has been described by one commentator as like a swimming pool and Northern Ireland will be in at the deep end so we will be treated very differently from the rest of the United Kingdom.