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Brexit deal: May in crunch cabinet meeting to decide fate of agreement – Politics live | Brexit deal: May in crunch cabinet meeting to decide fate of agreement – Politics live |
(35 minutes later) | |
That lonely microphone has a long time to wait - Cabinet running maybe as much as two hours over pic.twitter.com/PSHyRK7QcC | |
And this is from the Times’ Matt Chorley. | |
I don’t like to worry anyone, but one government source says there are still up to 20 people yet to speak in cabinet. Could go on for another 2.5hours. Cannot confirm obviously but thought worth passing on... | |
At this rate we may have fallen out of the EU anyway by the time it wraps up ... | |
The cabinet meeting is overrunning, we’ve been told. Theresa May had been expected to make a statement when it finished at around 5pm, but apparently it is now due to run at least until 6pm (ie, for four hours) and perhaps until 7pm (ie, for five hours). | |
Amid all the criticism of Theresa May’s deal, here are two tweets, chosen relatively randomly, from two commentators who have got positive things to say about it. | |
From the Financial Time’s Gideon Rachman | |
Counter intuitive but I think convincing case by @MESandbu that May has extracted important concessions from EU and got a deal that is roughly in the centre ground of British politics. Not sure centre ground is large enough to save her though https://t.co/Mz71BmataO | |
And this is from the Social Market Foundation’s James Kirkup. | |
Theresa May’s Brexit deal is the least bad option now open to the UK. There was never a better deal to be negotiated. Time for MPs to grow up and accept the facts. https://t.co/FewTopSRI0 pic.twitter.com/l2sOYJz8RD | |
The food industry is still planning for no deal, the chairman of the Food and Drink Federation has said. “This is a chink of light there is no doubt about that,” Ian Wright told the BBC. “But we still don’t know what the relationship is with our biggest partners, 40% of food comes from the EU and that is a really big worry for us,” he added. | |
He said his members will still be preparing for no deal until January “because that is the prudent thing to do” amid continuing uncertainty over Brexit. | |
These are from Sky’s Beth Rigby. | |
Hearing @PennyMordaunt will push again for free vote in parly on final deal (h/t @MrHarryCole) in cabinet (more relevant now given @DavidMundellDCT letter). Also her she's asked the PM for more detail on certain areas. But didn't get sense she about to walk. Let's see 1/2 | |
May expected to make a statement after cabinet (Reuters reporting 5pm). Some sceptics might think she’s trying to get her version of cabinet out before her Brexiteer cabinet ministers.... again, let’s see 2/2 | |
Here are more pictures of the Brexit campaigners in Westminster today. | |
Pro Brexit | |
Anti Brexit | |
In the Commons Valerie Vaz, the shadow leader of the Commons, used a point of order to say that she thought Theresa May would give a press conference about the deal at 9pm tonight. She said that May should come to the Commons and give a statement instead. It was a replay of the argument that took place at the end of PMQs. (See 12.49am.) | In the Commons Valerie Vaz, the shadow leader of the Commons, used a point of order to say that she thought Theresa May would give a press conference about the deal at 9pm tonight. She said that May should come to the Commons and give a statement instead. It was a replay of the argument that took place at the end of PMQs. (See 12.49am.) |
Dame Rosie Winterton, the deputy speaker who was in the chair, said she thought the statement would be tomorrow. | Dame Rosie Winterton, the deputy speaker who was in the chair, said she thought the statement would be tomorrow. |
If Vaz is right about the press conference being at 9pm, that is bad news for journalists. We’ve been told to expect the deal to be published at around 7pm (assuming the cabinet approves it), then a press conference afterwards. | If Vaz is right about the press conference being at 9pm, that is bad news for journalists. We’ve been told to expect the deal to be published at around 7pm (assuming the cabinet approves it), then a press conference afterwards. |
And here is a quote from the Tony Blair speech this afternoon. He described the deal, on the basis of what has been reported about it, as a “capitulation”. He said: | And here is a quote from the Tony Blair speech this afternoon. He described the deal, on the basis of what has been reported about it, as a “capitulation”. He said: |
Nothing can disguise the nature of the deal [Theresa May] has chosen, if reports of it are true. This deal isn’t a compromise, it’s a capitulation. | Nothing can disguise the nature of the deal [Theresa May] has chosen, if reports of it are true. This deal isn’t a compromise, it’s a capitulation. |
The withdrawal agreement will keep us tied to EU trade policy until there is an end established by ‘joint consent’ - in other words, the EU has a veto. | The withdrawal agreement will keep us tied to EU trade policy until there is an end established by ‘joint consent’ - in other words, the EU has a veto. |
It is coated in heavy fudge, but that is the inedible biscuit beneath the coating. | It is coated in heavy fudge, but that is the inedible biscuit beneath the coating. |
Blair also said that the proposals had united him and Boris Johnson in “unholy alliance”, adding: | Blair also said that the proposals had united him and Boris Johnson in “unholy alliance”, adding: |
We agree this is a pointless Brexit in name only which is not the best of a bad job but the worst of both worlds. In the cause of ‘taking back control’ we lose the control we had. | We agree this is a pointless Brexit in name only which is not the best of a bad job but the worst of both worlds. In the cause of ‘taking back control’ we lose the control we had. |
It is not just Boris Johnson who has described the Brexit deal as the worst of both worlds. Justine Greening, a Tory pro-European also opposed to the deal, has used exactly the same phrase to describe it. | It is not just Boris Johnson who has described the Brexit deal as the worst of both worlds. Justine Greening, a Tory pro-European also opposed to the deal, has used exactly the same phrase to describe it. |
Tony Blair, the Labour former prime minister and one of the most prominent campaigners for a second referendum on Brexit, has been giving a speech this afternoon. We previewed some of what he would say earlier. (See 6am.) My colleague Patrick Wintour has more highlights from what he said. | Tony Blair, the Labour former prime minister and one of the most prominent campaigners for a second referendum on Brexit, has been giving a speech this afternoon. We previewed some of what he would say earlier. (See 6am.) My colleague Patrick Wintour has more highlights from what he said. |
Blair: “this is Brexit in theory but still tied to Europe in reality, thus making a mockery of the reason for leaving. Whatever people voted for, it was not this ! In the cause of taking back control, we lose the control that we had”. | Blair: “this is Brexit in theory but still tied to Europe in reality, thus making a mockery of the reason for leaving. Whatever people voted for, it was not this ! In the cause of taking back control, we lose the control that we had”. |
Blair “the only route to unity is clarity, and the only route to clarity is through the people”. | Blair “the only route to unity is clarity, and the only route to clarity is through the people”. |
Blair Populism thrives on the politics of fear always looking for someone or someone to blame. But the fear usually derives from a worry which is real. Necessary to recognise anger is genuine and grievances as legitimate. Must meet people halfway at least. | Blair Populism thrives on the politics of fear always looking for someone or someone to blame. But the fear usually derives from a worry which is real. Necessary to recognise anger is genuine and grievances as legitimate. Must meet people halfway at least. |
Blair says it would be simpler for progressive centre to re-occupy the established parties. “ If not, the politically homeless are not lacking commitment and conviction, and they will find a way of building a new home”. | Blair says it would be simpler for progressive centre to re-occupy the established parties. “ If not, the politically homeless are not lacking commitment and conviction, and they will find a way of building a new home”. |
The International Monetary Fund has offered Theresa May some well-time support over Brexit. | The International Monetary Fund has offered Theresa May some well-time support over Brexit. |
In a new report, the IMF have backed chancellor Philip Hammond’s claim that the economy will bounce back once an exit deal is agreed. The Fund believes Britain could grow faster than expected next year (currently 1.5%) if Britain gets a deal that guarantees frictionless trade with the European Union. | In a new report, the IMF have backed chancellor Philip Hammond’s claim that the economy will bounce back once an exit deal is agreed. The Fund believes Britain could grow faster than expected next year (currently 1.5%) if Britain gets a deal that guarantees frictionless trade with the European Union. |
But the Fund also warns that a no-deal Brexit would wipe out around 6% of GDP (over an unspecified time), with the City and the chemicals industry badly hit. It adds: | But the Fund also warns that a no-deal Brexit would wipe out around 6% of GDP (over an unspecified time), with the City and the chemicals industry badly hit. It adds: |
“Directors emphasised the importance of a timely agreement with the EU, accompanied by an implementation period to avoid a cliff-edge exit in March 2019 and to allow firms and workers time to adjust to the new relationship.” | “Directors emphasised the importance of a timely agreement with the EU, accompanied by an implementation period to avoid a cliff-edge exit in March 2019 and to allow firms and workers time to adjust to the new relationship.” |
Channel 4’s Helia Ebrahimi has tweeted more details: | Channel 4’s Helia Ebrahimi has tweeted more details: |
Breaking: IMF warns the UK: without a deal with Europe there cd be 12 years of pain for the UK economy With the City taking a hit of up to 25% (WTO rules) and even with Free Trade Deal there wd be a 15% loss to financial services pic.twitter.com/8tgA6B6fDV | Breaking: IMF warns the UK: without a deal with Europe there cd be 12 years of pain for the UK economy With the City taking a hit of up to 25% (WTO rules) and even with Free Trade Deal there wd be a 15% loss to financial services pic.twitter.com/8tgA6B6fDV |
Given financial services is the UK’s top taxpayer this wd hv a big hit on government income #brexitHere’s the #IMF forecast for the brexit hit to different UK industries: pic.twitter.com/eN12uxAHcm | Given financial services is the UK’s top taxpayer this wd hv a big hit on government income #brexitHere’s the #IMF forecast for the brexit hit to different UK industries: pic.twitter.com/eN12uxAHcm |
Quite interesting that IMF now says Theresa May’s brexit deal looks better for UK economy than their “best case scenarios” (FTA) - which suggests there cd be a chance of an economic upgrade if she can get the deal through #brexit pic.twitter.com/BHvJAAVOcY | Quite interesting that IMF now says Theresa May’s brexit deal looks better for UK economy than their “best case scenarios” (FTA) - which suggests there cd be a chance of an economic upgrade if she can get the deal through #brexit pic.twitter.com/BHvJAAVOcY |
The BBC’s Adam Fleming spoke to Sabine Weyand, deputy to Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, today, to find out whether, as the Times (paywall) reports, she really did say that under the Brexit deal the UK “must align their rules but the EU will retain all the controls”. (See 8.25am.) He did not get an answer. | The BBC’s Adam Fleming spoke to Sabine Weyand, deputy to Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, today, to find out whether, as the Times (paywall) reports, she really did say that under the Brexit deal the UK “must align their rules but the EU will retain all the controls”. (See 8.25am.) He did not get an answer. |
So @WeyandSabine has left the building where EU27 are being briefed on Brexit.Me: Is there a deal? SW: Its a beautiful day. Me: Is it a beautiful deal? SW: No comment. Me: Have you been misquoted in today’s papers? SW: No comment.Me: I’ll let you get back to your desk then! | So @WeyandSabine has left the building where EU27 are being briefed on Brexit.Me: Is there a deal? SW: Its a beautiful day. Me: Is it a beautiful deal? SW: No comment. Me: Have you been misquoted in today’s papers? SW: No comment.Me: I’ll let you get back to your desk then! |
Earlier, at PMQs, Theresa May signalled that the government was about to do a U-turn on fixed odds betting terminals. That U-turn has now been announced, and my colleague Rob Davies has the details here. | Earlier, at PMQs, Theresa May signalled that the government was about to do a U-turn on fixed odds betting terminals. That U-turn has now been announced, and my colleague Rob Davies has the details here. |
Parliamentary politics is all about managing coalitions. Both main parties are coalitions of different group that share some goals and values, and Theresa May is reliant on at least five groups to keep her in power. They are: | Parliamentary politics is all about managing coalitions. Both main parties are coalitions of different group that share some goals and values, and Theresa May is reliant on at least five groups to keep her in power. They are: |
Conservative hardcore Brexiters (at least 40, perhaps up to 80) | Conservative hardcore Brexiters (at least 40, perhaps up to 80) |
Conservative hardcore pro-Europeans (at least 12, perhaps a handful more) | Conservative hardcore pro-Europeans (at least 12, perhaps a handful more) |
Mainstream English and Welsh Conservatives (at least 200, up to around 260) | Mainstream English and Welsh Conservatives (at least 200, up to around 260) |
Scottish Conservatives (13 MPs) | Scottish Conservatives (13 MPs) |
The DUP (10 MPs) | The DUP (10 MPs) |
When it comes to supporting the Brexit deal, May seems to have lost two of these groups already, the hardcore Brexiters and the DUP. Some hardcore pro-Europeans have said they will definitely vote against the government (eg, Jo Johnson), although others have not yet committed themselves to voting against (eg, Anna Soubry - see 8.21am.) My colleague Pippa Crerar writes about how this group might vote in a bit more detail here. | When it comes to supporting the Brexit deal, May seems to have lost two of these groups already, the hardcore Brexiters and the DUP. Some hardcore pro-Europeans have said they will definitely vote against the government (eg, Jo Johnson), although others have not yet committed themselves to voting against (eg, Anna Soubry - see 8.21am.) My colleague Pippa Crerar writes about how this group might vote in a bit more detail here. |
Mainstream English and Welsh Tories will probably back the deal, although they have not seen it yet, and so we cannot be 100% sure. | Mainstream English and Welsh Tories will probably back the deal, although they have not seen it yet, and so we cannot be 100% sure. |
But this afternoon the Scottish Conservatives are flexing their muscles. As the BBC reports, they have signed a letter to May saying they would not support a deal that involved surrendering rights over fishing. Many of the ones they won in their better-than-expected 2017 general election performance were coasting seats in the north east of Scotland and that was in part because they said the Tories were the party that would take Scotland out of the common fisheries policy. | But this afternoon the Scottish Conservatives are flexing their muscles. As the BBC reports, they have signed a letter to May saying they would not support a deal that involved surrendering rights over fishing. Many of the ones they won in their better-than-expected 2017 general election performance were coasting seats in the north east of Scotland and that was in part because they said the Tories were the party that would take Scotland out of the common fisheries policy. |
Here is an extract from the letter. Addressing May, they say: | Here is an extract from the letter. Addressing May, they say: |
You have made welcome statements throughout the Brexit negotiations that leaving the EU will mean leaving the commons fisheries policy and negotiating as an independent coastal state from December 2020. You said in your conference speech that anything less would be a ‘betrayal of Scotland’ and we completely agree. That has raised expectations in the fishing industry that Brexit will lead to complete control and full sovereignty over domestic waters that we must deliver on. | You have made welcome statements throughout the Brexit negotiations that leaving the EU will mean leaving the commons fisheries policy and negotiating as an independent coastal state from December 2020. You said in your conference speech that anything less would be a ‘betrayal of Scotland’ and we completely agree. That has raised expectations in the fishing industry that Brexit will lead to complete control and full sovereignty over domestic waters that we must deliver on. |
In order to deliver on these expectations, we could not support an agreement with the EU that would prevent the UK from independently negotiating access and quota shares. That would mean that we would not be leaving the CFP in practice and would be becoming an independent coastal state in name only. At the end of the implementation period, we must be able to negotiate access and quotes shares with the EU and other third countries independently on an annual basis, without any pre-existing arrangement being in force. That means that access and quota shares cannot be included in the future economic partnership, allowing the UK to become an independent coastal state both in principle and in practice. | In order to deliver on these expectations, we could not support an agreement with the EU that would prevent the UK from independently negotiating access and quota shares. That would mean that we would not be leaving the CFP in practice and would be becoming an independent coastal state in name only. At the end of the implementation period, we must be able to negotiate access and quotes shares with the EU and other third countries independently on an annual basis, without any pre-existing arrangement being in force. That means that access and quota shares cannot be included in the future economic partnership, allowing the UK to become an independent coastal state both in principle and in practice. |
Yet, as the Guardian has reported, the UK has been under strong pressure to include clauses that would give EU boats exactly those sorts of fishing rights in UK waters after Brexit in the deal. | Yet, as the Guardian has reported, the UK has been under strong pressure to include clauses that would give EU boats exactly those sorts of fishing rights in UK waters after Brexit in the deal. |
Just before Cabinet started, letter from Scottish Tory MPs, including Sec of State, hand delivered to No 10 warning against any backsliding on fishing rights - PM simply can't afford to lose those 13 votes | Just before Cabinet started, letter from Scottish Tory MPs, including Sec of State, hand delivered to No 10 warning against any backsliding on fishing rights - PM simply can't afford to lose those 13 votes |
Letter here 👇 pic.twitter.com/FMoCBJV1GB | Letter here 👇 pic.twitter.com/FMoCBJV1GB |
The Daily Telegraph’s chief political correspondent Christopher Hope has tweeted that he’s heard two cabinet ministers will resign today. | The Daily Telegraph’s chief political correspondent Christopher Hope has tweeted that he’s heard two cabinet ministers will resign today. |
The pair: international development secretary Penny Mordaunt, and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Esther McVey. | The pair: international development secretary Penny Mordaunt, and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Esther McVey. |
Minister: "Two members of the Cabinet will resign today". Me: "Who?" Minister: "Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey." #BrexitDeal | Minister: "Two members of the Cabinet will resign today". Me: "Who?" Minister: "Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey." #BrexitDeal |
This is putting the pound under a little pressure. Sterling has dipped back to $1.295 against the US dollar, having risen to $1.30 this morning. | This is putting the pound under a little pressure. Sterling has dipped back to $1.295 against the US dollar, having risen to $1.30 this morning. |
It seems that Downing Street is aware that the opinions being heard so far about Theresa May’s Brexit plans are currently mainly coming from the two opposite sides of the debate – the ERG and remainers. | It seems that Downing Street is aware that the opinions being heard so far about Theresa May’s Brexit plans are currently mainly coming from the two opposite sides of the debate – the ERG and remainers. |
Hence, I’m told, an order went out earlier today from the Conservative whips for moderate Tory MPs to start tweeting their supportive views. But as one centrist Tory said: “It’s not easy to opine on a deal when you haven’t even seen anything yet.” | Hence, I’m told, an order went out earlier today from the Conservative whips for moderate Tory MPs to start tweeting their supportive views. But as one centrist Tory said: “It’s not easy to opine on a deal when you haven’t even seen anything yet.” |
The MP’s view on initial reports of May’s plan is that it seems not entirely ideal, but is “better than all the other options”. | The MP’s view on initial reports of May’s plan is that it seems not entirely ideal, but is “better than all the other options”. |