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Brexit deal: Tory ministers meet to decide fate of agreement – Politics live
Brexit deal: Tory ministers meet to decide fate of agreement – Politics live
(35 minutes later)
This is from my colleague Jessica Elgot.
Dominic Grieve says he can't vote for the deal if it is as briefed in Sabine Weyand's briefing note. “I could not look my constituents in the eye and say this would be a better deal than the one we have as a member of the EU."
Here are some random tweets on the deal.
From the Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman
For 22 months Theresa May has argued that no deal is better than a bad deal. Today her argument is that a bad deal is better than no deal
From Rupert Harrison, who was chief of staff to George Osborne when Osborne was chancellor
Despite the furious ERG/DUP spin the reality is that TM has delivered a significant negotiating achievement over the last few weeks - holding out against a NI only backstop and effectively forcing the EU to concede
From the Labour peer Stewart Wood
I have a hunch some Brexiteer Cabinet Ministers will come out of Cabinet today saying “The Cabinet decided today to put the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal to Parliament so that it can make the final decision” rather than “The Cabinet today backed the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal”.
Former Irish prime minister Bertie Ahern has declared the Brexit agreement as a “good deal” for Ireland but a “hard sell” for Theresa May.
Ahern, who was taoiseach for 11 years and was one of the architects of the peace process in Northern Ireland, also said Theresa May could go to the cabinet today holding her head high.
He said the UK-wide customs arrangement, instead of an discrete backstop for the Irish border, was a “victory” for her. He said:
That has been achieved by [Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator] making a big concession. If I was addressing the British cabinet, I would remind them that it was Theresa May who asked for a temporary customs-arrangement.
In Greece, where Brexit negotiations have been closely watched - and bemoaned by officials - the state-run TV channel, ERT, has described the coming hours as a day for reckoning for Theresa May. “Today may prove to be one of the most difficult days of the British prime minister’s political career since, to great degree, it will also be decisive for the cohesion of the cabinet,” said the channel reporting developments.
Given Greece’s status as the euro zone’s weakest link, politicians across the board frequently lament the prospect of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU fearing it will ultimately pave the way to a Teutonic takeover of the continent.
Under the headline “Say a prayer for Great Britain,” the news portal, Postscript, has just declared: “The hours seem to be endless since [it was announced] on Tuesday evening that a [preliminary] deal was cut between the EU and Great Britain. More than anything it will be anguish for London, primarily, that will ensue. … say a prayer for Great Britain and perhaps also for Europe itself. The future is becoming darker.”
Here are pictures of Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, and Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, leaving Downing Street this morning. They are both prominent Brexiters. Neither of them spoke to journalists as they came out. You’ll have to decide for yourself by looking at the pictures (which is not always the worst way of working out what’s going on) whether they are:
a) Pleased as punch
b) Reluctantly minded to okay May’s deal.
c) Wondering what to include in the resignation letter
Chris Grayling, the Brexiter transport secretary, was “tight-lipped”, in the words of the Press Association, as he left Downing Street this morning.
Chris Grayling, the Brexiter transport secretary, was “tight-lipped”, in the words of the Press Association, as he left Downing Street this morning.
He was also there last night, and did not look especially cheerful as he left.
He was also there last night, and did not look especially cheerful as he left.
Here is the scene in Downing Street. Liz Truss, the chief secretary to the Treasury, was the most recent person to arrive, going in about 40 minutes ago.
Here is the scene in Downing Street. Liz Truss, the chief secretary to the Treasury, was the most recent person to arrive, going in about 40 minutes ago.
Ireland’s taoiseach Leo Varadkar is expected to make a statement at noon in the Irish parliament, sources say.
Ireland’s taoiseach Leo Varadkar is expected to make a statement at noon in the Irish parliament, sources say.
This is from Sarah Vine, the Daily Mail columnist who is married to Michael Gove, the Brexiter environment secretary.
This is from Sarah Vine, the Daily Mail columnist who is married to Michael Gove, the Brexiter environment secretary.
On the whole quite a lot of willy waving going on this morning #BrexitDeal
On the whole quite a lot of willy waving going on this morning #BrexitDeal
That seems to be a reference to people like Mark Francois. (See 9.42am.) Gove himself is reportedly backing the deal, although apparently with certain reservations.
That seems to be a reference to people like Mark Francois. (See 9.42am.) Gove himself is reportedly backing the deal, although apparently with certain reservations.
Here’s more pressure from the European Research Group, via the BBC’s Norman Smith:
Here’s more pressure from the European Research Group, via the BBC’s Norman Smith:
“If the officers won’t stop this then the poor bloody infantry will have to” - ERG bod on PMs Brexit deal
“If the officers won’t stop this then the poor bloody infantry will have to” - ERG bod on PMs Brexit deal
Mark Francois, deputy chair of the European Research Group, the faction representing around 50 Tory MPs pushing for a harder Brexit, told the Today programme this morning that he thought there would be cabinet resignations today over the Brexit deal. But he would not predict how many.
Mark Francois, deputy chair of the European Research Group, the faction representing around 50 Tory MPs pushing for a harder Brexit, told the Today programme this morning that he thought there would be cabinet resignations today over the Brexit deal. But he would not predict how many.
Cabinet ministers would have to make a choice, he said. He told the programme:
Cabinet ministers would have to make a choice, he said. He told the programme:
People around the cabinet table, in their heart of hearts, know that.
People around the cabinet table, in their heart of hearts, know that.
We and the rest of the country will be watching very carefully to see what happens at cabinet today, but there are a number of cabinet ministers who deep down very much oppose this.
We and the rest of the country will be watching very carefully to see what happens at cabinet today, but there are a number of cabinet ministers who deep down very much oppose this.
They will have to look into their hearts and decide whether a Jaguar and a red box and a bunch of sycophantic civil servants calling you ‘Minister’ is more important that the destiny of your country.
They will have to look into their hearts and decide whether a Jaguar and a red box and a bunch of sycophantic civil servants calling you ‘Minister’ is more important that the destiny of your country.
Boris Johnson, the Brexiter former foreign secretary, says the Times report claiming that Sabine Weyand, deputy to the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, thinks the EU would “retain all the controls” under this deal (see 8.25am), reinforces his claim that it is unacceptable.
Sabine Weyand in The Times clear: if agreed, the CU backstop will not be temporary but the minimum basis for our future trading relationship, with high alignment and 'EU control' - this means super-canada impossible.Cabinet must live up to its responsibilities & stop this deal
Sophie in ‘t Veld, a Dutch MEP who is the deputy to the European parliament’s chief spokesman, Guy Verhofstadt, told the Today programme this morning that the proposal to keep the UK in a temporary customs union was not “part of a cunning plan of the devious Europeans to keep the UK in a customs union forever”. She explained:
None of us, neither you or I, have actually read the document, but from what we hear this is going to be part of the backstop solution and a new relationship will have to be negotiated between the UK and the EU. It all depends on how the negotiations proceed.
She also said the “real problem” in the negotiation was in London. She went on:
The real problem doesn’t lie there. The real problem lies within the UK, within the government, within the Tory party, between the parties, because there has not been any agreement over the relationship with the EU between any of them over the last two years.
That is the real problem, because if the UK had a single agreed line, backed by the majority of parties and the majority of MPs, then the whole situation would not be so unclear.
The Irish government has said it does not want to see any “hardening” of the border in the Irish sea.
Senator Neale Richmond, the only politician put up by the government to do media on Wednesday, also hinted that the prime minister Leo Varadkar had not seen the full text of the withdrawal agreement.
Varadkar, and his deputy Simon Coveney, had a two hour tele-conference call with Ireland’s “sherpa” in Brussels last night. He has called his ministers to a specially convened cabinet meeting at 9.30 this morning.
Richmond said the “priority” for Ireland was a future relationship with the UK to protect the close trading relationship and it was in nobody’s interest to see the “backstop come into play”. He told RTE’s Morning Ireland:
The priority will always be that in the next transition period we can negotiate that deep and meaningful trade, customs and regulatory arrangement between the EU and the UK as a whole. That will ensure not only is there no hard border on the island of Ireland but there is no hardening of the border down the Irish sea. That’s something the government is keen to achieve and I think can achieve.
Asked whether the deal was not as the DUP’s Sammy Wilson has said a “humiliation” for the UK and Northern Ireland, Richmond said that was far from the case.
“There is no ambition to humiliate anyone. Whatever the deal will be it won’t be a good deal, because there simply is no such thing as a good deal,” he told RTE’s Morning Ireland.
And here is Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Scotland’s first minister, making the same point that Ian Blackford was making on Good Morning Scotland.
Indeed. PM’s approach would take Scotland out of the single market (despite our 62% remain vote) but leave us competing for investment with Northern Ireland that is effectively still in it. https://t.co/o6veQIljoW
After DUP chief whip Jeffrey Donaldson’s warning that May’s deal gives ammunition to the Scottish Nationalists, SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford spoke the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland programme to insist that a separate deal for Northern Ireland should mean a separate one for Scotland. He said:
I’ve said repeatedly to the prime minister that the one deal that can command a majority in the house of Commons is to stay in the single market and the customs union. As far as we understand things this morning it looks as if it’s going to be a different deal for Northern Ireland. Now if it is permissible for Northern Ireland to stay in the single market as part of the backstop, then of course Scotland should be given the same opportunity.
Referring to the letter written last night by himself, Jeremy Corbyn, Vince Cable, and Liz Saville Roberts, calling for May to allow amendments to the proposed deal (see below), Blackford said: “I think it’s important that the normal practice is followed and I’m grateful that we’ve had this cross-party unity.”
He added: “Parliament has got to have the ability to amend what the government is putting forward.” It is “not acceptable” that the government is only willing to take amendments after the meaningful vote.
Blackford also reminded listeners that Scottish secretary David Mundell and Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson – who is currently on maternity leave - reportedly threatened to resign if there was a differentiated deal for NI.
Parliament is sovereign and must have a truly meaningful vote on any Brexit agreement. We demand that Parliament is able to amend and propose alternatives to whatever deal the Government brings forward. pic.twitter.com/0Wh0pUFfq0
This is what Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, told Sky News as she was leaving Northern Ireland for London. She said:
It is worrying times, there’s no doubt about that. What we’ll be looking at is the text, hopefully we’ll actually get to see the text so that we can make our own judgment on that.
The prime minister is very clear about where we stand on all of this. As you know we’ve written to her, she’s very clear that we cannot be separated from the rest of the UK, either in terms of customs or indeed in terms of regulatory alignment either.
Regulatory alignment would mean that we would diverge from the rest of the UK, we would stay in the single market, whereas the rest of the United Kingdom would not.
We would have a democratic deficit insofar as we would be taking rules from the European Union and would have no way in influencing those rules.
It’s a question of whether we’re separating the union – whether we are dealing with the United Kingdom in a way that leaves us adrift in the future.
As the leader of unionism in Northern Ireland I’m not about to agree to that.
Andrea Leadsom, the Brexiter leader of the Commons, was also identified as a cabinet minister who might resign over the Brexit deal - not least because on Sunday she said the UK would have to be able to leave any customs union with the EU unilaterally, something that does not seem to be possible under the deal, on the basis of what is being reported.
But this morning, speaking to reporters as she left her home, she sounded positive about what was on offer. She said:
I’ve had a good conversation with the prime minister and I’m looking at the details of the deal today and I’m extremely optimistic that we’ll have a good deal, but I’m looking at the details today.
Andrew Brigden MP, one of Theresa May’s fiercest critics, predicted that if cabinet ministers did not resign over the agreement more Tory MPs would demand a leadership contest.
A contest would be triggered if 48 Tory MPs write to the chair of the 1922 committee demanding a change of leader.
It is understood that the number submitted, including a letter by Bridgen, is close to that threshold.
Speaking to BBC Breakfast Bridgen he said:
Further details of this dodgy deal will come out later on. The cabinet are meeting at 2pm. Cabinet ministers with honour would resign over these proposals if they can’t persuade the prime minister to drop them. But there is not as much honour in politics as perhaps there should be. Failing that I think there will be the 48 letters in very imminently once the details of this proposal are out in the public domain. Under the rules of the 1922 committee, it would probably be Monday if the letters come at the end of this week.
Bridgen admitted that he had not seen the document being discussed by the cabinet today. But he claimed that under the backstop arrangement, outlined in the document, the UK would in effect lose its right to leave the EU. He said:
We are going to be stuck in the backstop forever, why would the EU ever let us out of it? So we will be in a customs union that will neutralise all the economic benefits of leaving the European Union - no ability to do free trade deals. It is exactly where the European Union want to keep us pinned.
We know the prime minister likes to have a little dance, but it is clear with this withdrawal agreement she is certainly dancing to Mr Barnier and the EU’s tune, so I will not be supporting it. If I did I would not be able to look my constituents in the eye who overwhelmingly voted to leave the European Union. I wouldn’t be able to look myself in the mirror either.
Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, was in Downing Street this morning for a meeting with Theresa May about the deal. She arrived at about 8am, and left about half an hour later. As she left, she did not respond to questions from reporters.
Mordaunt is near the top of lists of cabinet ministers most likely to resign today over the Brexit deal - although of course one of the key facts about the situation at the moment is that, as of now, no one has resigned over the deal agreed yesterday - even though cabinet ministers have seen the details.
City traders are preparing for the pound to either soar or tumble once this afternoon’s cabinet meeting has played out.
Sterling ‘implied volatility’ (which measures investors buying protection against sharp swings in the currency) has jumped this morning, to its highest level since the 2017 general election.
It shows today’s Brexit cabinet meeting is the most significant event for the UK economy in over a year.
