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General election: Tories accuse Corbyn of 'lying to public' about what UK-US trade talks dossier reveals – live news General election: Tories accuse Corbyn of 'lying to public' about what UK-US trade talks dossier reveals – live news
(32 minutes later)
Labour leader says he has obtained 451 pages of unredacted documents that reveal the US is demanding NHS services are part of trade negotiationsLabour leader says he has obtained 451 pages of unredacted documents that reveal the US is demanding NHS services are part of trade negotiations
Here is the latest election polling from YouGov. As usual, it is worth stressing that conventional polling badly underestimated the Labour vote at the 2017 election.
But there was one polling exercise that did very well two years ago. YouGov produced a model for the election using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP), a technique that involves trying to work out how Britain will vote on a constituency by constituency basis, using data about the demographic composition of each constituency and polling information about how particular demographics are likely to vote. The model predicted a hung parliament. When it was published, in the middle of the 2017 campaign, this was seen as so unlikely that it was widely dismissed, but it turned out to be the best polling guide to the final result.
We will find out what the YouGov MRP model is saying about the 2019 result tonight, when the figures are published in the Times.
Michael Heseltine, the former Conservative deputy prime minister and pro-European who is backing the Liberal Democrats at this election, is speaking now at a Lib Dem event, my colleague Peter Walker reports.
Nick Dearden, director of the campaigning group Global Justice Now, has written an article for Open Democracy about what we’e learned from the leaked dossier about the UK-US trade talks. Here’s an excerpt.
And here is the line-up for the BBC seven-party debate on Friday night.
We knew that Boris Johnson would not be turning up. But Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage are also giving it a miss too, and so it does not really count as a leaders’ debate.
(Caroline Lucas isn’t a party leader either, but she is an ex-leader, and arguably she has a higher profile than the two Green co-leaders, Sîan Berry and Jonathan Bartley.)
The BBC has said that Boris Johnson has yet to agree a date for an interview with Andrew Neil, as part of the leader interviews series that Neil is doing. It is not hard to guess why Johnson’s team might be having second thoughts. Neil is the most aggressive and forensic interviewer on TV, and Nicola Sturgeon and Jeremy Corbyn were both left looking diminished after their encounters with him this week.
Is it conceivable that Johnson might just refuse point-blank to show up? In a healthy political culture, that would be unthinkable. But sadly there is no law yet saying someone cannot be appointed PM without having given a lengthy interview to Andrew Neil, and Johnson did try to suspend parliament for five weeks for his own political convenience. So it doesn’t seem impossible that he might pull out entirely ...
Obviousl
From the BBC’s Nick EardleyFrom the BBC’s Nick Eardley
This is what Boris Johnson said in the Q&A about the leaked dossier about the UK-US trade talks.This is what Boris Johnson said in the Q&A about the leaked dossier about the UK-US trade talks.
Q: You say the Labour allegations about the NHS and a UK-US trade deal are nonsense. So why was the NHS being discussed at all?Q: You say the Labour allegations about the NHS and a UK-US trade deal are nonsense. So why was the NHS being discussed at all?
Johnson says it is nonsense to say the NHS would be part of a trade deal. He says Labour is trying to distract attention from the problems with its Brexit policy.Johnson says it is nonsense to say the NHS would be part of a trade deal. He says Labour is trying to distract attention from the problems with its Brexit policy.
He says Labour is showing a vacuum of leadership on antisemitism and on Brexit.He says Labour is showing a vacuum of leadership on antisemitism and on Brexit.
That’s it. The event is over.That’s it. The event is over.
A questioner says hello to Johnson in Cornish. He replies with a word of what sounds like Cornish – to applause from the audience.A questioner says hello to Johnson in Cornish. He replies with a word of what sounds like Cornish – to applause from the audience.
Q: Cornwall council has lost £370m since 2010. Is it right, then, to be putting £2bn into a pot hole fund?Q: Cornwall council has lost £370m since 2010. Is it right, then, to be putting £2bn into a pot hole fund?
Johnson says he thinks some of that pot hole money will go to councils.Johnson says he thinks some of that pot hole money will go to councils.
Q: Are you sorry for the state of the NHS in Cornwall?Q: Are you sorry for the state of the NHS in Cornwall?
Johnson says he has seen the pressure the NHS is under. People do an incredible job, but they are under huge pressure.Johnson says he has seen the pressure the NHS is under. People do an incredible job, but they are under huge pressure.
He says Truro is getting a new maternity unit.He says Truro is getting a new maternity unit.
He says Labour’s plan for a four-day week would be “catastrophic” for the management of all public services, including the NHS.He says Labour’s plan for a four-day week would be “catastrophic” for the management of all public services, including the NHS.
Boris Johnson is now taking questions.Boris Johnson is now taking questions.
Q: You said you would fix the crisis in social care when you became PM. But there is not much detail about this in your manifesto. Don’t you think voters deserve a bit more detail?Q: You said you would fix the crisis in social care when you became PM. But there is not much detail about this in your manifesto. Don’t you think voters deserve a bit more detail?
Johnson says he visited a hospital this morning, and heard about the pressures on the social care system.Johnson says he visited a hospital this morning, and heard about the pressures on the social care system.
He says the government has put £1.5bn into the system to meet immediate needs.He says the government has put £1.5bn into the system to meet immediate needs.
There will be another £1bn a year for the life of this parliament.There will be another £1bn a year for the life of this parliament.
And he says he wants to establish cross-party consensus on this. It should be based on two principles: dignity for people in old age, and no one having to sell their home to pay for care.And he says he wants to establish cross-party consensus on this. It should be based on two principles: dignity for people in old age, and no one having to sell their home to pay for care.
Johnson says his party backs his Brexit deal. He goes on:Johnson says his party backs his Brexit deal. He goes on:
That gets a round of applause.That gets a round of applause.
Johnson jokes about Michel Barnier asking Jeremy Corbyn whether anyone in Labour would back the Brexit deal that Corbyn proposes to negotiate with the EU.Johnson jokes about Michel Barnier asking Jeremy Corbyn whether anyone in Labour would back the Brexit deal that Corbyn proposes to negotiate with the EU.
Johnson says Jeremy Corbyn made it clear in his Andrew Neil interview yesterday that taxation would go up for everone.
He also claims that, under Labour, the UK’s credit rating would go down. As a result borrowing would cost more, he says.
Johnson says the Tories see a “balance and a symmetry” between having fantastic public services and having a market economy.
The Tories are the only party in that believes in the market economy, he says.
Johnson refers to his photocall at Goonhilly Earth Station earlier today. He jokes about wondering whether those satellite dishes could detect the missing element in Labour’s Brexit policy - ie, Jeremy Corbyn’s stance.
(Actually, there isn’t a mystery about Corbyn’s stance any more. He has confirmed he would be neutral.)
Boris Johnson is speaking now. He says it is great to be in Cornwall. He went for a run on the beach in St Ives this morning, he says.
He is now on to the standard stump speech – starting with why there must be an election, to get Brexit done etc etc.
Boris Johnson is doing a campaign event in Cornwall.
There will be a live feed at the top of the blog shortly.
These are from David Henig, a former UK civil servant specialising in trade policy who now runs the UK trade policy project for the European Centre for International Political Economy thinktank, on the leaked dossier about the UK-US trade talks.
These are from some journalists who have had a chance to look at the leaked documents about UK-US trade talks released by Labour this morning. Generally, they think they are not quite as incriminating as Jeremy Corbyn implied.
From Sky’s Ed Conway
From ITV’s Robert Peston
From the BBC’s Faisal Islam
From the Independent’s Benjamin Kentish
This is what Boris Johnson said in response to the Labour claims about the leaked documents from the UK-US trade deal talks. He said:
Next up will be the Guardian’s defence and security editor, Dan Sabbagh. He will be answering any questions you may have about polling at 12.30pm on Friday.
You can ask your question via our form here.
Boris Johnson has apologised for the “hurt and offence” that has been caused by Islamophobia within the Conservative party ranks. Speaking on a campaign visit in Cornwall, Johnson said:
Asked whether he apologised for the Islamophobia that has taken place in the Tory party, he replied:
Johnson’s decision to apologise may have been intended to mark a contrast with Jeremy Corbyn, who refused to for his handling of antisemitism in the Labour party in his Andrew Neil interview last night - even though he had apologised about it in the past. (See 7.43am.)
But there is also a contrast with the approach taken by Johnson himself in the BBC Question Time debate on Friday last week. Johnson was asked to apologise for a column he wrote last year describing Muslim women wearing burqas as looking like letterboxes. This was condemned as Islamophobic, and blamed for a 375% rise in incidents of Islamophobia, but Johnson refused to apologise.