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General election: Tories accuse Corbyn of 'lying to public' about what UK-US trade talks dossier reveals – live news General election: Tories accuse Corbyn of 'lying to public' about what UK-US trade talks dossier reveals – live news
(32 minutes later)
Labour leader says he has obtained 451 pages of unredacted documents that reveal the US is demanding NHS services are part of trade negotiationsLabour leader says he has obtained 451 pages of unredacted documents that reveal the US is demanding NHS services are part of trade negotiations
Talking of MRP models (see 4.05pm), Best for Britain, the anti-Brexit group, has also commissioned its own MRP analysis, from Focaldata, and it suggests that the Conservatives could be on course for a majority of more than 80.
But Best for Britain is using the data to encourage tactical voting and it says that if 117,314 or more pro-EU voters were to vote tactically, then the Tories could be denied a majority.
Here is an extract from the Best for Britain news release.
A result like this would translate into a majority of around 82. The press notice goes on:
Best for Britain is encouraging people to vote tactically in accordance with the recommendations on its tactical voting website.
However, as I reported in a post on Monday, there are at least four other tactical voting websites which in some cases make different recommendations.
The National Education Union - the merged NUT and ATL teachers’ unions - has released polling it commissioned of 1,000 voters with school-aged children in England, showing that 38% of parents plan to back Labour, compared with 33% for the Conservatives, 11% for Lib Dems, 9% for the Brexit party, and 4% for the Green party (excluding don’t knows).The National Education Union - the merged NUT and ATL teachers’ unions - has released polling it commissioned of 1,000 voters with school-aged children in England, showing that 38% of parents plan to back Labour, compared with 33% for the Conservatives, 11% for Lib Dems, 9% for the Brexit party, and 4% for the Green party (excluding don’t knows).
The polling breakdown showed a sharp division by age: 41% of those aged 18-34 backed Labour but just 27% of those aged 35-54. While only 15% of the younger group would vote Tory, support doubled to 30% among the older group.The polling breakdown showed a sharp division by age: 41% of those aged 18-34 backed Labour but just 27% of those aged 35-54. While only 15% of the younger group would vote Tory, support doubled to 30% among the older group.
The polling was carried out by Deltapoll last week as the parties unveiled their manifestos and education pledges. The NHS was named as an important election issue by 55% while education was mentioned by 28%, close to the 29% who named Brexit as a key issue. Some 54% of parents agreed funding for their local schools was insufficient.The polling was carried out by Deltapoll last week as the parties unveiled their manifestos and education pledges. The NHS was named as an important election issue by 55% while education was mentioned by 28%, close to the 29% who named Brexit as a key issue. Some 54% of parents agreed funding for their local schools was insufficient.
Mary Bousted, the NEU’s joint general secretary, said:Mary Bousted, the NEU’s joint general secretary, said:
The poll showed one surprising result: Labour was the most popular party among parents with children at private schools, despite its manifesto policy of adding VAT to school fees. Some 42% backed Labour while 30% backed the Tories, although the poll appears to significantly over-represent the proportion of parents with children at private schools.The poll showed one surprising result: Labour was the most popular party among parents with children at private schools, despite its manifesto policy of adding VAT to school fees. Some 42% backed Labour while 30% backed the Tories, although the poll appears to significantly over-represent the proportion of parents with children at private schools.
Charles Clarke, who was home secretary when Tony Blair was prime minister, told Emma Barnett on Radio 5 Live earlier that, if there were a hung parliament, Labour could ditch Jeremy Corbyn as leader. He explained:Charles Clarke, who was home secretary when Tony Blair was prime minister, told Emma Barnett on Radio 5 Live earlier that, if there were a hung parliament, Labour could ditch Jeremy Corbyn as leader. He explained:
Clarke also said he thought Corbyn’s refusal to apologise to the Jewish community in last night’s interview with Andrew Neil was “disgraceful”.Clarke also said he thought Corbyn’s refusal to apologise to the Jewish community in last night’s interview with Andrew Neil was “disgraceful”.
These are from the Financial Times’ Sebastian PayneThese are from the Financial Times’ Sebastian Payne
The Scottish Conservatives have suspended their general election candidate for Glasgow Central following complaints about Islamophobic language.The Scottish Conservatives have suspended their general election candidate for Glasgow Central following complaints about Islamophobic language.
Flora Scarabello will have support for her campaign withdrawn, following the submission of a complaint to the party’s central office about the alleged use of “anti-Muslim language”. It is being reported that the details emerged in a private phone call, which was recorded and sent to party officials.Flora Scarabello will have support for her campaign withdrawn, following the submission of a complaint to the party’s central office about the alleged use of “anti-Muslim language”. It is being reported that the details emerged in a private phone call, which was recorded and sent to party officials.
While the complaint is being investigated, Scarabello will have her party membership suspended. The deadline for removing her as a general election candidate has passed, meaning there is no option but for her name to still appear on the ballot paper.While the complaint is being investigated, Scarabello will have her party membership suspended. The deadline for removing her as a general election candidate has passed, meaning there is no option but for her name to still appear on the ballot paper.
A spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives said:A spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives said:
Alison Thewliss won Glasgow Central for the SNP in 2017, with a 2,267 majority over Labour. The Tories were a long way behind in third place.Alison Thewliss won Glasgow Central for the SNP in 2017, with a 2,267 majority over Labour. The Tories were a long way behind in third place.
Jeremy Corbyn has posted this from the train taking him to Cornwall for an election rally tonight.Jeremy Corbyn has posted this from the train taking him to Cornwall for an election rally tonight.
From the LBC’s Theo UsherwoodFrom the LBC’s Theo Usherwood
More from my colleague Peter Walker on Michael Heseltine’s speech.More from my colleague Peter Walker on Michael Heseltine’s speech.
Here is the latest election polling from YouGov. As usual, it is worth stressing that conventional polling badly underestimated the Labour vote at the 2017 election.Here is the latest election polling from YouGov. As usual, it is worth stressing that conventional polling badly underestimated the Labour vote at the 2017 election.
But there was one polling exercise that did very well two years ago. YouGov produced a model for the election using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP), a technique that involves trying to work out how Britain will vote on a constituency by constituency basis, using data about the demographic composition of each constituency and polling information about how particular demographics are likely to vote. The model predicted a hung parliament. When it was published, in the middle of the 2017 campaign, this was seen as so unlikely that it was widely dismissed, but it turned out to be the best polling guide to the final result.But there was one polling exercise that did very well two years ago. YouGov produced a model for the election using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP), a technique that involves trying to work out how Britain will vote on a constituency by constituency basis, using data about the demographic composition of each constituency and polling information about how particular demographics are likely to vote. The model predicted a hung parliament. When it was published, in the middle of the 2017 campaign, this was seen as so unlikely that it was widely dismissed, but it turned out to be the best polling guide to the final result.
We will find out what the YouGov MRP model is saying about the 2019 result tonight, when the figures are published in the Times.We will find out what the YouGov MRP model is saying about the 2019 result tonight, when the figures are published in the Times.
Michael Heseltine, the former Conservative deputy prime minister and pro-European who is backing the Liberal Democrats at this election, is speaking now at a Lib Dem event, my colleague Peter Walker reports.Michael Heseltine, the former Conservative deputy prime minister and pro-European who is backing the Liberal Democrats at this election, is speaking now at a Lib Dem event, my colleague Peter Walker reports.
Nick Dearden, director of the campaigning group Global Justice Now, has written an article for Open Democracy about what we’e learned from the leaked dossier about the UK-US trade talks. Here’s an excerpt.Nick Dearden, director of the campaigning group Global Justice Now, has written an article for Open Democracy about what we’e learned from the leaked dossier about the UK-US trade talks. Here’s an excerpt.
And here is the line-up for the BBC seven-party debate on Friday night.And here is the line-up for the BBC seven-party debate on Friday night.
We knew that Boris Johnson would not be turning up. But Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage are also giving it a miss too, and so it does not really count as a leaders’ debate.We knew that Boris Johnson would not be turning up. But Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage are also giving it a miss too, and so it does not really count as a leaders’ debate.
(Caroline Lucas isn’t a party leader either, but she is an ex-leader, and arguably she has a higher profile than the two Green co-leaders, Sîan Berry and Jonathan Bartley.)(Caroline Lucas isn’t a party leader either, but she is an ex-leader, and arguably she has a higher profile than the two Green co-leaders, Sîan Berry and Jonathan Bartley.)