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UK population 'to rise to 71.6m' | UK population 'to rise to 71.6m' |
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The population of the UK is expected to increase from 61m to 71.6m by 2033, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). | The population of the UK is expected to increase from 61m to 71.6m by 2033, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). |
Just over two-thirds of the increase is expected to be related directly or indirectly to migration to the UK. | Just over two-thirds of the increase is expected to be related directly or indirectly to migration to the UK. |
The population of pensionable age is expected to rise by 32% over the next 25 years. | The population of pensionable age is expected to rise by 32% over the next 25 years. |
If the projected increase materialises, the population will have grown at its fastest rate in a century. | If the projected increase materialises, the population will have grown at its fastest rate in a century. |
Migration increase | Migration increase |
The population is expected to rise by more than 10m in the 24 years between 2008 and 2029, less than half the time it took to rise from 50m to 60m between 1948 and 2005. | The population is expected to rise by more than 10m in the 24 years between 2008 and 2029, less than half the time it took to rise from 50m to 60m between 1948 and 2005. |
"That reflects really the speeding-up of the population growth as time has gone on in recent years," says Guy Goodwin, ONS director of population statistics. | |
National population projections are produced every two years to provide an estimate of future population which is used for government planning for pensions and the welfare state. | National population projections are produced every two years to provide an estimate of future population which is used for government planning for pensions and the welfare state. |
The ONS comes up with different models of how the population could change, based on variations in migration, birth rate and life expectancy. | The ONS comes up with different models of how the population could change, based on variations in migration, birth rate and life expectancy. |
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Immigration minister, Phil Woolas, said the fall in migrant numbers showed the government's points-based system was working. | Immigration minister, Phil Woolas, said the fall in migrant numbers showed the government's points-based system was working. |
"Today's projections show that population growth is starting to slow down, the impacts of the radical reforms we have made to the immigration system over the last two years are working," he said. | "Today's projections show that population growth is starting to slow down, the impacts of the radical reforms we have made to the immigration system over the last two years are working," he said. |
But shadow immigration minister, Damian Green, said the government had failed to control immigration. | But shadow immigration minister, Damian Green, said the government had failed to control immigration. |
"A Conservative Government would introduce a limit on the numbers allowed to come here to work, as well as other measures to fight illegal immigration." | "A Conservative Government would introduce a limit on the numbers allowed to come here to work, as well as other measures to fight illegal immigration." |
Ageing population | Ageing population |
The ONS says in common with other European countries, the UK has an ageing population which will grow more rapidly than other age groups. | The ONS says in common with other European countries, the UK has an ageing population which will grow more rapidly than other age groups. |
The population of state pensionable age is expected to rise by 32% over the next 25 years from 11.8m in 2008 to 15.6m in 2033. | The population of state pensionable age is expected to rise by 32% over the next 25 years from 11.8m in 2008 to 15.6m in 2033. |
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The population of working age is projected to rise by just under 14%, from 38.1m in 2008 to 43.3m in 2033. | The population of working age is projected to rise by just under 14%, from 38.1m in 2008 to 43.3m in 2033. |
In 2008 there were 3.2 people of working age for every person of state pensionable age, but this ratio is expected to fall to 2.8 by 2033, taking into account the future changes to state pension age. | In 2008 there were 3.2 people of working age for every person of state pensionable age, but this ratio is expected to fall to 2.8 by 2033, taking into account the future changes to state pension age. |
Trends differ across the UK. The populations of England and Northern Ireland are projected to increase by 7% by 2018, and Wales by 5%. | Trends differ across the UK. The populations of England and Northern Ireland are projected to increase by 7% by 2018, and Wales by 5%. |
Fertility and life expectancy levels are expected to remain lower in Scotland, where the projected increase is 4%. | Fertility and life expectancy levels are expected to remain lower in Scotland, where the projected increase is 4%. |
Mr Goodwin says the bulk of population increase will be in England: | |
"If the projection is realised, England will have the population of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland combined." |