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UK population 'to rise to 71.6m' UK population 'to rise to 71.6m'
(about 2 hours later)
The population of the UK is expected to increase from 61m to 71.6m by 2033, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The population of the UK will rise from 61m to 71.6m by 2033 if current trends in growth continue, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said.
Just over two-thirds of the increase is likely to be related directly or indirectly to migration to the UK.Just over two-thirds of the increase is likely to be related directly or indirectly to migration to the UK.
The population of pensionable age is expected to rise by 32% over the next 25 years.
If the projected increase materialises, the population will have grown at its fastest rate in a century.If the projected increase materialises, the population will have grown at its fastest rate in a century.
The population is expected to rise by more than 10m in the 24 years between 2008 and 2029, less than half the time it took to rise from 50m to 60m between 1948 and 2005. But one think tank said the projections were based on trends over the past few years that may not continue.
"That reflects really the speeding-up of the population growth as time has gone on in recent years," says Guy Goodwin, ONS director of population statistics. Ageing population
Migration increase
National population projections are produced every two years to provide an estimate of future population which is used for government planning for pensions and the welfare state.National population projections are produced every two years to provide an estimate of future population which is used for government planning for pensions and the welfare state.
The ONS comes up with different models of how the population could change, based on variations in migration, birth rate and life expectancy. The latest figures show that if current trends continue:
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  • Of the projected 10.5m population increase in the next 25 years, 55% is expected to be due to natural increase - more births than deaths.
  • Just more than two thirds of the projected population increase by 2033 will be due to migration, either directly, from new people arriving, or indirectly, when those people go on to have children.
  • Immigrant numbers have fallen by 10,000 since the last ONS projection two years ago, with 180,000 new arrivals expected every year for the next 25 years.
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  • The population will grow by more than 10m by 2029, less than half the time it took to rise from 50m to 60m between 1948 and 2005
  • The population of pensionable age will rise by 32% over the next 25 years to 15.6m, with the number aged over 85 more than doubling to 3.3m
  • In 2033, there will be 2.8 people of working age for every person of state pensionable age - a fall from 3.2 in 2008
  • By 2033, the population of England will be almost as large as the current populations of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland combined.
Immigration minister Phil Woolas said the fall in migrant numbers showed the government's points-based system was working. The ONS figures suggest that 180,000 new immigrants will arrive every year for the next 25 years - and will have both a direct impact themselves on the population, and an indirect one if they go on to have children.
FROM THE WORLD AT ONE class="" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qptc">More from The World At One But that number for new arrivals is 10,000 a year lower than the last ONS projection two years ago and immigration minister Phil Woolas said that showed the government's points-based system was working.
These are projections - it doesn't mean things will necessarily end up that way Tim FinchInstitute for Public Policy Research
"Today's projections show that population growth is starting to slow down, the impacts of the radical reforms we have made to the immigration system over the last two years are working," he said."Today's projections show that population growth is starting to slow down, the impacts of the radical reforms we have made to the immigration system over the last two years are working," he said.
But shadow immigration minister Damian Green said the government had failed to control immigration. Shadow immigration minister Damian Green disagreed: "A Conservative government would introduce a limit on the numbers allowed to come here to work, as well as other measures to fight illegal immigration."
"A Conservative government would introduce a limit on the numbers allowed to come here to work, as well as other measures to fight illegal immigration." Sir Andrew Green, chairman of think tank Migration Watch UK, also said the government was "in denial" and "really serious measures" were needed to bring immigration down.
Ageing population "70% of the fastest growth rate in history is due to immigration," he said. "That is equivalent to the entire population of London in the next 25 years.
The ONS says in common with other European countries, the UK has an ageing population which will grow more rapidly than other age groups. "The government's own claim for the effect of their recent measures is an annual reduction of 20,000. Today's projections show that net immigration must be reduced by 180,000 a year if we are to hold the UK's population at 65 million."
The population of state pensionable age is expected to rise by 32% over the next 25 years from 11.8m in 2008 to 15.6m in 2033. Impact of recession
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  • The number of people over 85 is projected to more than double over the next 25 years from 1.3 million in 2008 to 3.3 million by 2033.
  • The number of centenarians - people who live to 100 - is expected to rise more than sevenfold from 11,000 in 2008 to 80,000 in 2033.
  • The proportion of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 16% in 2008, to 23% by 2033.
Guy Goodwin, ONS director of population statistics, stressed that the figures were not forecasts or predictions and did not "take account of new or future policy initiatives".
The population of working age is projected to rise by just under 14%, from 38.1m in 2008 to 43.3m in 2033. FROM THE WORLD AT ONE class="" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qptc">More from The World At One
In 2008, there were 3.2 people of working age for every person of state pensionable age, but this ratio is expected to fall to 2.8 by 2033, taking into account the future changes to state pension age.
Policy initiatives
Trends differ across the UK. The populations of England and Northern Ireland are projected to increase by 7% by 2018, and Wales by 5%.
Population growth will put greater pressure on our public services and increase competition for housing. Peter Madden, Forum for the Future Big variation in life expectancy
Fertility and life expectancy levels are expected to remain lower in Scotland, where the projected increase is 4%.
Mr Goodwin said the bulk of population increase would be in England: "If the projection is realised, England will have the population of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland combined."
He stressed that the figures were not true forecasts, because they did not "take account of new or future policy initiatives".
"Really, they're just a benchmark that policy-makers and politicians can look at and say, 'This is where we are heading if things continue very much as they are.'""Really, they're just a benchmark that policy-makers and politicians can look at and say, 'This is where we are heading if things continue very much as they are.'"
Campaigners for sustainable development said the ONS figures were a "wake-up call for politicians" and warned of the impact on demand for public services. Tim Finch, from the Institute for Public Policy Research, agreed: "We don't know exactly where immigration might go in the next few years. It could come down - indeed it already has a bit.
"Population growth will put greater pressure on our public services and increase competition for housing. "The recession, that's having an impact, there's also quite tight control of immigration now in place.
Protecting our environment and meeting climate change targets will become even harder. And unless it is handled properly, social cohesion will suffer," said Peter Madden, chief executive of Forum for the Future. "These are projections - it doesn't mean things will necessarily end up that way."
Campaigners for sustainable development said the ONS figures were a "wake-up call for politicians".
Peter Madden, chief executive of Forum for the Future, warned of the impact of public services, housing and the environment if the projected rises did materialise.