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UK population 'to rise to 71.6m' UK population 'to rise to 71.6m'
(about 2 hours later)
The population of the UK will rise from 61m to 71.6m by 2033 if current trends in growth continue, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said.The population of the UK will rise from 61m to 71.6m by 2033 if current trends in growth continue, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said.
Just over two-thirds of the increase is likely to be related directly or indirectly to migration to the UK.Just over two-thirds of the increase is likely to be related directly or indirectly to migration to the UK.
If the projected increase materialises, the population will have grown at its fastest rate in a century.If the projected increase materialises, the population will have grown at its fastest rate in a century.
But one think tank said the projections were based on trends over the past few years that may not continue.But one think tank said the projections were based on trends over the past few years that may not continue.
National population projections are produced every two years to provide an estimate of future population which is used for government planning for pensions and the welfare state.National population projections are produced every two years to provide an estimate of future population which is used for government planning for pensions and the welfare state.
The latest figures show that if current trends continue:The latest figures show that if current trends continue:
  • The population will grow by more than 10m by 2029, less than half the time it took to rise from 50m to 60m between 1948 and 2005
  • The population of pensionable age will rise by 32% over the next 25 years to 15.6m, with the number aged over 85 more than doubling to 3.3m
  • In 2033, there will be 2.8 people of working age for every person of state pensionable age - a fall from 3.2 in 2008
  • By 2033, the population of England will be almost as large as the current populations of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland combined.
  • The population will grow by more than 10m by 2029, less than half the time it took to rise from 50m to 60m between 1948 and 2005
  • The population of pensionable age will rise by 32% over the next 25 years to 15.6m, with the number aged over 85 more than doubling to 3.3m
  • In 2033, there will be 2.8 people of working age for every person of state pensionable age - a fall from 3.2 in 2008
  • By 2033, the population of England will be almost as large as the current populations of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland combined.
The ONS figures suggest that 180,000 new immigrants will arrive every year for the next 25 years - and will have both a direct impact themselves on the population, and an indirect one if they go on to have children.The ONS figures suggest that 180,000 new immigrants will arrive every year for the next 25 years - and will have both a direct impact themselves on the population, and an indirect one if they go on to have children.
These are projections - it doesn't mean things will necessarily end up that way Tim FinchInstitute for Public Policy ResearchThese are projections - it doesn't mean things will necessarily end up that way Tim FinchInstitute for Public Policy Research
But that number for new arrivals is 10,000 a year lower than the last ONS projection two years ago and immigration minister Phil Woolas said that showed the government's points-based system was working.But that number for new arrivals is 10,000 a year lower than the last ONS projection two years ago and immigration minister Phil Woolas said that showed the government's points-based system was working.
"Today's projections show that population growth is starting to slow down, the impacts of the radical reforms we have made to the immigration system over the last two years are working," he said."Today's projections show that population growth is starting to slow down, the impacts of the radical reforms we have made to the immigration system over the last two years are working," he said.
Shadow immigration minister Damian Green disagreed: "A Conservative government would introduce a limit on the numbers allowed to come here to work, as well as other measures to fight illegal immigration." However, MPs Nicholas Soames and Frank Field, chairmen of the cross party group for balanced migration, said the UK was "on course for an unsustainable and unacceptable rise in population".
Sir Andrew Green, chairman of think tank Migration Watch UK, also said the government was "in denial" and "really serious measures" were needed to bring immigration down. "Over the next Parliament, at a time of public spending cuts, the government will have to find the money to pay for one million new immigrants - a city the size of Birmingham."
They called on all major parties to promise "firm and effective" measures to keep the population below 65m.
"If politicians want to rebuild trust and counter extremism, they must stop ignoring the public's deep concern about this," they said.
Shadow immigration minister Damian Green said a Conservative government would introduce a limit on the numbers allowed to come to the UK to work, "as well as other measures to fight illegal immigration".
Sir Andrew Green, chairman of think tank Migration Watch UK, said the government was "in denial" and "really serious measures" were needed to bring immigration down.
"70% of the fastest growth rate in history is due to immigration," he said. "That is equivalent to the entire population of London in the next 25 years."70% of the fastest growth rate in history is due to immigration," he said. "That is equivalent to the entire population of London in the next 25 years.
"The government's own claim for the effect of their recent measures is an annual reduction of 20,000. Today's projections show that net immigration must be reduced by 180,000 a year if we are to hold the UK's population at 65 million.""The government's own claim for the effect of their recent measures is an annual reduction of 20,000. Today's projections show that net immigration must be reduced by 180,000 a year if we are to hold the UK's population at 65 million."
Impact of recessionImpact of recession
Guy Goodwin, ONS director of population statistics, stressed that the figures were not forecasts or predictions and did not "take account of new or future policy initiatives".Guy Goodwin, ONS director of population statistics, stressed that the figures were not forecasts or predictions and did not "take account of new or future policy initiatives".
FROM THE WORLD AT ONE More from The World At OneFROM THE WORLD AT ONE More from The World At One
"Really, they're just a benchmark that policy-makers and politicians can look at and say, 'This is where we are heading if things continue very much as they are.'" "Really, they're just a benchmark that policy-makers and politicians can look at and say, 'this is where we are heading if things continue very much as they are'."
Tim Finch, from the Institute for Public Policy Research, agreed: "We don't know exactly where immigration might go in the next few years. It could come down - indeed it already has a bit.Tim Finch, from the Institute for Public Policy Research, agreed: "We don't know exactly where immigration might go in the next few years. It could come down - indeed it already has a bit.
"The recession, that's having an impact, there's also quite tight control of immigration now in place. "The recession, that's having an impact, there's also quite tight control of immigration now in place."
"These are projections - it doesn't mean things will necessarily end up that way."
Campaigners for sustainable development said the ONS figures were a "wake-up call for politicians".Campaigners for sustainable development said the ONS figures were a "wake-up call for politicians".
Peter Madden, chief executive of Forum for the Future, warned of the impact of public services, housing and the environment if the projected rises did materialise.Peter Madden, chief executive of Forum for the Future, warned of the impact of public services, housing and the environment if the projected rises did materialise.