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| Bob Katter says he will back Coalition in event of a hung parliament – as it happened | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 7.59am BST | |
| 07:59 | |
| Night time politics | |
| It has been such a long rollercoaster day that it is hard to think about the sum of the day’s news. But here goes: | |
| That’s it from me. Thanks to the brains trust, Katharine Murphy, Gareth Hutchens, Paul Karp, Ben Raue and Nick Evershed. | |
| Bridie Jabour will be with you tomorrow and depending on the electoral lay of the land, I may see you back with #politicslive next week. | |
| Goodnight. | |
| Updated | |
| at 8.09am BST | |
| 7.20am BST | 7.20am BST |
| 07:20 | 07:20 |
| Paul Karp | Paul Karp |
| A new ReachTel poll has found that 65% of voters hope to see more investment in renewable energy from the new government. | A new ReachTel poll has found that 65% of voters hope to see more investment in renewable energy from the new government. |
| Even a majority of Nationals (65.5%) and Liberal (50.4%) voters supported investment in renewable energy. | Even a majority of Nationals (65.5%) and Liberal (50.4%) voters supported investment in renewable energy. |
| GetUp environmental justice campaign director, Sam Regester, said renewable energy is not a partisan issue, it’s just a popular one. | GetUp environmental justice campaign director, Sam Regester, said renewable energy is not a partisan issue, it’s just a popular one. |
| “This election global warming deniers and blockers like Andrew Nikolic, Jamie Briggs and Peter Dutton have either lost their seats or suffered huge swings against them,” Regester said. | “This election global warming deniers and blockers like Andrew Nikolic, Jamie Briggs and Peter Dutton have either lost their seats or suffered huge swings against them,” Regester said. |
| “If Malcolm Turnbull hadn’t sought to cut a billion dollars from renewables, he may not have lost as many voters as he did at the recent election.” | “If Malcolm Turnbull hadn’t sought to cut a billion dollars from renewables, he may not have lost as many voters as he did at the recent election.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.23am BST | at 7.23am BST |
| 7.15am BST | 7.15am BST |
| 07:15 | 07:15 |
| Ben Raue | Ben Raue |
| There’s some interesting, if not VERY EARLY, movements in the Tasmanian Senate vote. I will let Ben Raue explain from his post on his Tally Room blog. | There’s some interesting, if not VERY EARLY, movements in the Tasmanian Senate vote. I will let Ben Raue explain from his post on his Tally Room blog. |
| Here is Ben: | Here is Ben: |
| There is a lot of below-the-line votes reporting for Lisa Singh and Richard Colbeck, who have the potential to be the first candidates to win seats off the back of below-the-line votes, potentially defeating their party’s preselected ticket. This data also suggests that Labor and the Greens may only get six seats, whereas the party totals suggest seven. | There is a lot of below-the-line votes reporting for Lisa Singh and Richard Colbeck, who have the potential to be the first candidates to win seats off the back of below-the-line votes, potentially defeating their party’s preselected ticket. This data also suggests that Labor and the Greens may only get six seats, whereas the party totals suggest seven. |
| We are now, slowly, starting to see a few polling booths processed, so that informal votes have been correctly assessed and below-the-line votes are assigned to the individual candidate. I’ll look at Tasmania both because there are only five seats to examine, and because of the talk around major party candidates Lisa Singh and Richard Colbeck overcoming their unwinnable ticket position on the back of below-the-line votes. | We are now, slowly, starting to see a few polling booths processed, so that informal votes have been correctly assessed and below-the-line votes are assigned to the individual candidate. I’ll look at Tasmania both because there are only five seats to examine, and because of the talk around major party candidates Lisa Singh and Richard Colbeck overcoming their unwinnable ticket position on the back of below-the-line votes. |
| I should stress that this sample is very small – we only have the divisional office pre-poll from three out of five seats, and one of the special hospital booths from each of these three seats. We’re talking about 1,000 votes out of a total of 280,000. I’ll repeat this exercise in coming days to see if it stands. | I should stress that this sample is very small – we only have the divisional office pre-poll from three out of five seats, and one of the special hospital booths from each of these three seats. We’re talking about 1,000 votes out of a total of 280,000. I’ll repeat this exercise in coming days to see if it stands. |
| Firstly – the informal rate drops from 4.7% for the rest of the state to 1.6% in these booths. | Firstly – the informal rate drops from 4.7% for the rest of the state to 1.6% in these booths. |
| Secondly, Lisa Singh and Richard Colbeck appear to be getting enough below-the-line votes to have a chance of overtaking their party order. Singh is currently polling 12.2% of the total Labor vote, and Colbeck is polling 11.5% of the total Liberal vote. As a comparison, in 2013 no candidate on either major party ticket polled over 5% of the party’s vote in Tasmania. It’s also the case that the vast majority of below-the-line votes usually go to the party’s lead candidate, yet Singh is polling 2.4 times the vote of the Labor lead candidate, and Colbeck is polling 1.6 times the vote of the Liberal lead candidate. | Secondly, Lisa Singh and Richard Colbeck appear to be getting enough below-the-line votes to have a chance of overtaking their party order. Singh is currently polling 12.2% of the total Labor vote, and Colbeck is polling 11.5% of the total Liberal vote. As a comparison, in 2013 no candidate on either major party ticket polled over 5% of the party’s vote in Tasmania. It’s also the case that the vast majority of below-the-line votes usually go to the party’s lead candidate, yet Singh is polling 2.4 times the vote of the Labor lead candidate, and Colbeck is polling 1.6 times the vote of the Liberal lead candidate. |
| If you assume this proportion of the vote stays for the rest of the count, Singh would poll 0.54 quotas in her own right, with the rest of the Labor ticket polling just under 4 quotas. If this is the case there would be no votes left for Labor No 5 candidate John Short, and Singh would have a good chance of winning the seat, and would be the beneficiary of any Labor above-the-line preferences. | If you assume this proportion of the vote stays for the rest of the count, Singh would poll 0.54 quotas in her own right, with the rest of the Labor ticket polling just under 4 quotas. If this is the case there would be no votes left for Labor No 5 candidate John Short, and Singh would have a good chance of winning the seat, and would be the beneficiary of any Labor above-the-line preferences. |
| If we do the same exercise for Colbeck, he would poll 0.474 quotas, and the rest of the ticket would poll 3.65 quotas. This could possibly lead to both the fourth Liberal (Bushby) and Colbeck to win seats, possibly at the expense of either Singh or Greens second candidate Nick McKim. | If we do the same exercise for Colbeck, he would poll 0.474 quotas, and the rest of the ticket would poll 3.65 quotas. This could possibly lead to both the fourth Liberal (Bushby) and Colbeck to win seats, possibly at the expense of either Singh or Greens second candidate Nick McKim. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.40am BST | at 7.40am BST |
| 6.51am BST | 6.51am BST |
| 06:51 | 06:51 |
| Shorten says the S&P statement is a vote of no confidence in Turnbull and Morrison: | Shorten says the S&P statement is a vote of no confidence in Turnbull and Morrison: |
| The fact that the ratings agencies are putting our credit rating on negative watch, it shows that the last three years, this country has stood still. In many ways the rating agency’s decision to put the triple A credit rating on a negative watch is a vote of no confidence in Mr Turnbull, in Mr Morrison and the way they have been handling the strained economy. The fact that they are relying upon measures that will never pass parliament shows that the ratings agency think this country has not been well run. | The fact that the ratings agencies are putting our credit rating on negative watch, it shows that the last three years, this country has stood still. In many ways the rating agency’s decision to put the triple A credit rating on a negative watch is a vote of no confidence in Mr Turnbull, in Mr Morrison and the way they have been handling the strained economy. The fact that they are relying upon measures that will never pass parliament shows that the ratings agency think this country has not been well run. |
| 6.46am BST | 6.46am BST |
| 06:46 | 06:46 |
| Labor is not ruling out a full inquiry into the Iraq invasion. | Labor is not ruling out a full inquiry into the Iraq invasion. |
| I think it does highlight for Mr Howard as the prime minister of the time took us to war that he needs to answer questions, if we went to war on the basis of errors of information ... Labor is not ruling out a full inquiry, we will consider our position carefully. | I think it does highlight for Mr Howard as the prime minister of the time took us to war that he needs to answer questions, if we went to war on the basis of errors of information ... Labor is not ruling out a full inquiry, we will consider our position carefully. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.50am BST | at 6.50am BST |
| 6.43am BST | 6.43am BST |
| 06:43 | 06:43 |
| Shorten says he is confident of Labor candidate Anne Aly winning the seat of Cowan. | Shorten says he is confident of Labor candidate Anne Aly winning the seat of Cowan. |
| He is pleased at the unity in the Labor party, compared with the Coalition. | He is pleased at the unity in the Labor party, compared with the Coalition. |
| I couldn’t ask for any more support than I have received. | I couldn’t ask for any more support than I have received. |
| 6.37am BST | 6.37am BST |
| 06:37 | 06:37 |
| Bill Shorten, who has toured his new seats in Western Australia, is doing a presser in Perth. A reminder of Turnbull’s description of independents. | Bill Shorten, who has toured his new seats in Western Australia, is doing a presser in Perth. A reminder of Turnbull’s description of independents. |
| I’m sure Turnbull is eating his words when he said that the independents – he called them, dysfunctional, unstable, chaotic and I think he attacked Nick Xenophon as a loner. | I’m sure Turnbull is eating his words when he said that the independents – he called them, dysfunctional, unstable, chaotic and I think he attacked Nick Xenophon as a loner. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.37am BST | at 7.37am BST |
| 6.34am BST | 6.34am BST |
| 06:34 | 06:34 |
| Bob Katter has also raised the issue of land title for Indigenous owners in his talks with Turnbull. That is, to address the problem that Indigenous communities cannot get freehold title over land. This was his answer. | Bob Katter has also raised the issue of land title for Indigenous owners in his talks with Turnbull. That is, to address the problem that Indigenous communities cannot get freehold title over land. This was his answer. |
| There is no guarantees, there’s no quid pro quo, there is no written agreements here and there can’t be ... What I want to know is if I give you that backing, what is the intentions of your government or put it another way, what is the intentions of your government and I will decide what I’m going to do with my vote. I came away comfortable that there is very serious and real commitment. | There is no guarantees, there’s no quid pro quo, there is no written agreements here and there can’t be ... What I want to know is if I give you that backing, what is the intentions of your government or put it another way, what is the intentions of your government and I will decide what I’m going to do with my vote. I came away comfortable that there is very serious and real commitment. |
| (You understand my reluctance to be definitive on any deal.) | (You understand my reluctance to be definitive on any deal.) |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.50am BST | at 6.50am BST |
| 6.12am BST | 6.12am BST |
| 06:12 | 06:12 |
| Malcolm Turnbull: these exciting times that remain exciting | Malcolm Turnbull: these exciting times that remain exciting |
| We will unite the nation in a common purpose to continue to ensure that we have strong economic growth, we continue successfully to transition from the mining construction boom that is in a manner that is fair and offers opportunities, strong opportunities for these very exciting times which remain exciting. Perhaps exciting [in] different ways but they are exciting. They are at times of opportunity, a great challenge, and S&P has reminded us that budget repair and responsibility for the public finances are critical. | We will unite the nation in a common purpose to continue to ensure that we have strong economic growth, we continue successfully to transition from the mining construction boom that is in a manner that is fair and offers opportunities, strong opportunities for these very exciting times which remain exciting. Perhaps exciting [in] different ways but they are exciting. They are at times of opportunity, a great challenge, and S&P has reminded us that budget repair and responsibility for the public finances are critical. |
| It was a short statement. No questions. | It was a short statement. No questions. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.21am BST | at 6.21am BST |
| 6.04am BST | 6.04am BST |
| 06:04 | 06:04 |
| It has been one hell of a day really and there are still lots of rats and mice to clean up. I promised to go back to the Scott Morrison-Chris Bowen press conferences on Standard and Poor’s among other things. | It has been one hell of a day really and there are still lots of rats and mice to clean up. I promised to go back to the Scott Morrison-Chris Bowen press conferences on Standard and Poor’s among other things. |
| The S&P statement basically downgraded the credit outlook – as opposed to the credit rating. It was putting everyone on notice. Get your house in order, so to speak. | The S&P statement basically downgraded the credit outlook – as opposed to the credit rating. It was putting everyone on notice. Get your house in order, so to speak. |
| Housing loans also got an honourable mention. | Housing loans also got an honourable mention. |
| This is from the S&P statement: | This is from the S&P statement: |
| That said, Australia’s high stock of external debt and structural current account deficits are mostly generated by the private sector and they reflect the productive investment opportunities available in Australia, foreign investor confidence in Australia’s rule of law, the high creditworthiness of its banking system and the positive yield available on highly rated debt. | That said, Australia’s high stock of external debt and structural current account deficits are mostly generated by the private sector and they reflect the productive investment opportunities available in Australia, foreign investor confidence in Australia’s rule of law, the high creditworthiness of its banking system and the positive yield available on highly rated debt. |
| A portion of Australia’s external debt has also funded a surge in unproductive household borrowing for housing during the 1990s and 2000s, which was intermediated by the banking sector. Household debt (including debt for small businesses) now stands at more than 180% of household income. | A portion of Australia’s external debt has also funded a surge in unproductive household borrowing for housing during the 1990s and 2000s, which was intermediated by the banking sector. Household debt (including debt for small businesses) now stands at more than 180% of household income. |
| Morrison was asked about tax reforms, specifically relating to housing, given Labor had proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts. He would not answer. | Morrison was asked about tax reforms, specifically relating to housing, given Labor had proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts. He would not answer. |
| You’re raising issues of politics, not policy. The Labor party wanted to increase taxes and that seemed to be popular. I dispute that for a start and I made comments on the election yesterday so I don’t intend to go over those again here today. | You’re raising issues of politics, not policy. The Labor party wanted to increase taxes and that seemed to be popular. I dispute that for a start and I made comments on the election yesterday so I don’t intend to go over those again here today. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.20am BST | at 6.20am BST |