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Australian election 2016: Malcolm Turnbull confident Coalition can govern in its own right– politics live
Andrew Wilkie: leaders responsible for Iraq invasion have blood on their hands – politics live
(35 minutes later)
1.54am BST
01:54
Malcolm Turnbull is currently meeting with Queensland independent Bob Katter.
1.52am BST
01:52
Andrew Wilkie says John Howard and Alexander Downer need to be held to account
Wilkie is scathing:
Until we have an effective inquiry into the invasion of Iraq, until we do that, then people like John Howard and Alexander Downer and others won’t be properly scrutinised the and held to account.
Until we have a proper inquiry into the Iraq war, then we won’t learn the lessons to prevent or to help prevent such a disaster again in the future.
Until we have a proper inquiry into the Iraq war, we won’t fully understand the reforms that are needed in our parliamentary system to remove the unrestrained power from prime ministers to declare war and tohave us join in in the invasion of another country.
It is true that the invasion of Iraq and the war that has happened ever since we we have been an active player in, a proponent for, is the biggest foreign policy and security blunder in this country’s history.
1.49am BST
01:49
Bali bombing, Lindt cafe siege were result of Iraq invasion - we need an inquiry
Andrew Wilkie:
The Bali bombing of 2005 would not have occurred if we haven’t have joined in in the invasion of Iraq. The Lindt Cafe siege would not have occurred if we hadn’t helped create the circumstances for the rise of Islamic State, which would appear to have been a motivation for the person involved in that siege. I think the British have given us a really good exemplar of the sort of inquiry that we need in this country.
1.47am BST
01:47
Key crossbencher Andrew Wilkie says leaders during Iraq war have "blood on their hands"
Wilkie goes further:
The fact is that the invasion of Iraq and the start of a war that continues to this day, not only did it turbo charge al-Qaeda back then, but it created the circumstances for the rise of Islamic State. . So the terror threat that we face in this country right now is a direct result of the decision by the Australian government under John Howard in 2003 to join in that invasion. Frankly, there are a number of political leaders who in my opinion have blood on their hands.
1.41am BST
01:41
Andrew Wilkie on Chilcot report: damning and every bit as relevant to the Australian government
It is a damning report. It is by far the best inquiry, the most robust and thorough inquiry that has yet been conducted in any of the coalition of the willing countries into the invasion of Iraq and the start of a war, which, frankly, continues to this very day. Now, the Chilcot inquiry into the behaviour of the British government and its findings are about the behaviour of the British government. But, as far as I can tell, all of the main findings are every bit as relevant to the US government under then president George W. Bush and the Australian government, under then prime minister John Howard.
Updated
at 1.46am BST
1.39am BST
01:39
Peter Dutton: We are victims of our own success
Let’s file this in the #youknowitmakessense category.
“In part, I think we are victims of our own success,” he said.
The fact that we stopped boats, got children out of detention, we’re cancelling visas of bikies and others to make our community a safer place and essentially the issue had gone off the radar.
Updated
at 1.50am BST
1.29am BST
01:29
Greens want parliamentary approval when Australia participates in any war
Greens senator Scott Ludlam wants an inquiry into Australia’s participation in the Iraq war in light the Chilcot review. This is something the Greens have asked for before.
The Greens will also re-introduce their war powers bill as soon as parliament returns, requiring parliamentary approval when Australia participates in any war.
Our own decision makers must be held to account for their involvement in the conflict and our parliament given the power to decide when we go to war ...
The report confirms that UK leaders lied to the public about their reasons for going to war. We must now ensure that those leaders that led to Australian engagement in the conflict, particularly then prime minister John Howard, are held to account.
The Greens call on the government to initiate an urgent independent inquiry into Australia’s involvement in the Iraq war. The failures highlighted in the Chilcot report are not isolated to the United Kingdom alone and Australia must urgently consider the role it has played in this disastrous military intervention.
The report also illustrates the critical need for the parliament to have the power to decide when to deploy Australian troops to overseas conflict. The only way to be sure there is accountability and scrutiny is for the parliament to decide.
Updated
at 1.51am BST
1.20am BST
01:20
Turnbull: I am confident of forming government in our own right
The full Malcolm:
At the moment, and I can just say to you that I am very confident, very confident indeed that we will form government. We will form a majority government in our own right but I am, of course, talking to the crossbenchers as well, as I would do regardless of what our own numbers in the House amounted to.
Updated
at 1.25am BST
1.17am BST
1.17am BST
01:17
01:17
Brisbane champion, that's enough about you...
Brisbane champion, that's enough about you ...
I have more words from Malcolm Turnbull, who loves all members of the Liberal party.
I have more words from Malcolm Turnbull, who loves all members of the Liberal party.
We have the full quotes now from Turnbull and that swing in Queensland he was talking about? It was a swing in Brisbane. He likened Brisbane’s MP Trevor Evans’ success to his own in Wentworth. And then, well, he turned the conversation to Me.
We have the full quotes now from Turnbull and that swing in Queensland he was talking about? It was a swing in Brisbane. He likened the success of the Brisbane MP, Trevor Evans, to his own in Wentworth. And then, well, he turned the conversation to Me.
You [Evans] were preselected late in the day, as you know, and this is a marginal seat, you’ve made it less marginal, I might say. And overtime you can build on that.
You [Evans] were preselected late in the day, as you know, and this is a marginal seat. You’ve made it less marginal, I might say. And over time you can build on that.
I mean I did the same thing in Wentworth, actually. It was the most marginal seat in NSW in 2007 and now it’s got a solid majority. So over time the electors will get used to you, you know, and they will become even more fond of you. They will become even more fond of you than they are now.
I mean I did the same thing in Wentworth, actually. It was the most marginal seat in NSW in 2007 and now it’s got a solid majority. So, over time, the electors will get used to you, you know, and they will become even more fond of you. They will become even more fond of you than they are now.
But the volunteers have done a great job so I want to thank you all for your effort. It is a very, very big achievement. Can I just add something else. It was particularly important in this election, it’s always important but our opponents ran a very, very aggressive ground campaign. Very aggressive ground campaign, you know, they had the big Medicare lie which was, you know, they were pushing very hard directly, you know, person to person, the robocalls and text messages and so forth.
But the volunteers have done a great job so I want to thank you all for your effort. It is a very, very big achievement. Can I just add something else. It was particularly important in this election, it’s always important but our opponents ran a very, very aggressive ground campaign. Very aggressive ground campaign, you know, they had the big Medicare lie, which was, you know, they were pushing very hard directly, you know, person to person. The robocalls and text messages and so forth.
So we needed more than ever strong, grass roots support, strong support from volunteers on the ground and you guys delivered that and delivered it very, very effectively here in Brisbane where as you know we’ve had a swing to the party which is a phenomenal achievement.
So we needed, more than ever, strong, grassroots support, strong support from volunteers on the ground. And you guys delivered that and delivered it very, very effectively here in Brisbane where, as you know, we’ve had a swing to the party, which is a phenomenal achievement.
Updated
at 1.28am BST
1.03am BST
1.03am BST
01:03
01:03
This is our latest summary from Ben Raue, our election analyst.
This is our latest summary from Ben Raue, our election analyst.
70 Coalition66 Labor2 Coalition likely to win (Chisholm and Cowper)2 Labor likely to win (Cowan and Hindmarsh)5 others5 extremely close (Capricornia, Flynn, Forde, Gilmore, Herbert)
70 Coalition66 Labor2 Coalition likely to win (Chisholm and Cowper)2 Labor likely to win (Cowan and Hindmarsh)5 others5 extremely close (Capricornia, Flynn, Forde, Gilmore, Herbert)
Updated
Updated
at 1.04am BST
at 1.04am BST
12.49am BST
12.49am BST
00:49
00:49
Malcolm Turnbull has taken a leaf out of Bill Shorten’s book to do a victory lap of sorts around the Queen Street mall in Brisbane. He met with the new MP for Brisbane, Trevor Evans, the MP for Ryan, Jane Prentice, the MP for Bonner, Ross Vasta, and the MP for Bowman, Andrew Laming. They also had a lot of the volunteers and apropos Katharine Murphy’s piece, he notes that grassroots volunteers are the key to elections.
Malcolm Turnbull has taken a leaf out of Bill Shorten’s book to do a victory lap of sorts around the Queen Street mall in Brisbane. He met with the new MP for Brisbane, Trevor Evans, the MP for Ryan, Jane Prentice, the MP for Bonner, Ross Vasta, and the MP for Bowman, Andrew Laming. They also had a lot of the volunteers and apropos Katharine Murphy’s piece, he notes that grassroots volunteers are the key to elections.
He says the swing to the party was a phenomenal achievement in Brisbane.
He says the swing to the party was a phenomenal achievement in Brisbane.
He says he is very confident that the Coalition can form a majority government in their own right.
He says he is very confident that the Coalition can form a majority government in their own right.
I am talking to crossbenchers as I would do regardless of what the numbers in the house amounted to.
I am talking to crossbenchers as I would do regardless of what the numbers in the house amounted to.
Updated
Updated
at 1.13am BST
at 1.13am BST
12.28am BST
00:28
Malcolm Turnbull is in Brisbane to meet Bob Katter and do a bit of a street walk with his triumphant members. Looks like Shorten is setting the vibe.
Updated
at 12.31am BST
12.23am BST
00:23
Phil Coorey of the Fin Review has called the election.
Malcolm Turnbull is assured of forming government – possibly in his own right – after two more seats fell the Coalition’s way and it two others swung its way.
With the Coalition now sitting on 72 seats, which is four short of an absolute majority of 76, the prime minister, nevertheless, continued to prepare for a hung parliament by scheduling face-to-face meetings with lower-house independents ...
As minds inside the Coalition turn towards governing again, sources confirmed that Mr Turnbull, who lost three junior ministers at the election, is likely to promote up-and-coming conservatives Zed Seselja and Michael Sukkar, on the dual basis of merit and that their elevation will help ease the factional tensions that have exploded since the election.
Updated
at 12.30am BST
12.08am BST
00:08
Some more from the former Labor opposition leader Simon Crean’s address to the press club in 2003, on the Australian Politics website.
As I speak, we are a nation on the brink of war.
A war we should not be in.
A war to which 2000 of our fighting men and women were committed many months ago but were told about last Tuesday.
A war to which we are one of only four countries prepared to join the US in putting troops on the ground, despite claims of a coalition of up to 30.
A war which, for the first time in our history, Australia has joined as an aggressor.
Not because we are directly threatened.
Not because the UN has determined it.
But because the US asked us to.
And he made this point:
The war is wrong because resolution 1441 does not allow a unilateral attack
One of John Howard’s excuses for this war is the claim that resolution 1441 authorises a unilateral attack on Iraq.
It does no such thing.
Resolution 1441 was passed on the specific promise that the matter would be returned to the security council for decision about any military action to enforce it.
It unanimously set out a process for disarming Iraq through the UN. It said that:
The resolution would never have received unanimous approval if it gave authorised military action without a further resolution.
Updated
at 12.11am BST
11.51pm BST
23:51
The prime minister loves all members of the Liberal party
The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, and the cabinet secretary, Arthur Sinodinos, have spoken on Radio National on their regular program The Crunch.
Asked about Cory Bernardi’s moves to organise a grassroots conservative movement, Sinodinos explained Bernardi is trying to “mobilise activists on our own side to help counter” progressive groups such as GetUp.
The other part of what he’s saying is that he wants more love from the prime minister. My message to Cory is the prime minister loves all members of the Liberal party. And, often the irony here, is that the prime minister gets accused on one level by Labor of embracing the right of the party too much and then others say he’s not embracing them enough.
Sinodinos said the Liberal party is a “broad church” and Turnbull is “the right sort of leader” to straddle the liberal and conservative wing of the Liberal party.
Host Fran Kelly asked whether one in four Australians voting for minor parties or independents is “the new normal”. Bowen explained it was caused by less ingrained loyalty to the major parties.
This is not a new thing that people are less tied to their family’s political tradition. A few decades ago, you voted the same way as your parents and it was passed on from generation to generation. That doesn’t happen any more, and that’s a good thing. It means people are going through the process of determining the right approach for the future of the nation.
Sinodinos said the electorate “is becoming more fragmented over time, but any government that listens will be rewarded”.
Both say that stable majority government is still possible in the Australian political system but, unsurprisingly, Sinodinos thinks the Coalition will do so this time, and Bowen does not.
Updated
at 12.03am BST
11.42pm BST
23:42
Ed Husic has told Sky that Bill Shorten will remain leader.
11.36pm BST
23:36
Labor caucus to meet on Friday
Katharine Murphy
Morning everyone, just a quick look forward. The Labor caucus meets in Canberra on Friday for the first time since the election. Given Anthony Albanese has now retreated, Bill Shorten appears to be the only candidate for the Labor leadership. I’ll need to check the new rules for election of the leader. I haven’t had a chance to do that yet but the party may still have to open nominations for a period of time as a formality. I’ll check that during the course of the day and let you know. Onwards. Upwards.
Updated
at 12.04am BST
11.34pm BST
23:34
Julie Bishop’s argument is misleading. The opposition leader at the time of the 2003 Iraq war was Simon Crean. There was an argument within Labor about the war but his stance was clear. This is the top of his speech in reply in parliament:
The statement by the prime minister is his argument for war, not a plan for peace.
It only took the prime minister until only the second page of his statement to conclude that the only possible outcome is war.
There are several things on which we agree.
Our total support for the brave men women of the Australian defence forces and their families.
Non-proliferation is a critical security issue.
Saddam Hussein must disarm.
The issue of Iraq cannot be seen in isolation from the broader security issues that confront the Middle East, particularly the need for peace in Israel and Palestine.
The authority of the UN must be upheld.
But this statement is a justification for war, not a plan to secure the peace, and it is on this point that the prime minister and I fundamentally disagree.
Updated
at 11.49pm BST
11.24pm BST
23:24
Julie Bishop on Chilcot: it was the best information at the time
The foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, has responded to the Chilcot report. She said the then Howard government (of which she was a backbench member) had made the decision on the best information available at the time.
Well it was based on information, the best information at the time. I was in the party room. I recall the information that was presented to us. It was the best information that was available and we took a decision at the time. Of course the government takes responsibility for all decisions that a government takes and we take responsibility for this one.
David Koch: Can we expect an apology, do you think an apology is needed?
That’s a matter for John Howard but the Australian government, both Labor and Liberal, the Australian parliament would take responsibility. I recall very well at the time Kevin Rudd urging us to continue to support the United States so it was a bipartisan position.
Updated
at 12.05am BST
11.15pm BST
23:15
Adam Bandt predicts Coalition will not reach 76 seats
The Greens MP Adam Bandt has been speaking on ABC’s Radio National.
Bandt conceded the Greens are “very disappointed” to have lost South Australian senator Robert Simms as the party’s parliamentary representation went backwards for the first time in 18 years.
But Bandt was upbeat about the fact the Greens were “knocking on the door of winning more lower-house seats” in Melbourne.
Bandt trumpeted the party’s “tremendous achievements”, including his re-election with an increased vote in Melbourne, a 10% swing in Batman and coming within a few points of winning in Batman, Wills and Melbourne Ports (well, a few points short of Labor with a hope of overtaking the Liberals to win).
To win a seat in the lower house against the combined might of Labor and Liberals, the two-party closed shop of politics, is a difficult thing to do.
Bandt also talked up the prospect of progressive reforms in the new parliament including the crossbenchers pushing for democratic reform on political donations, MPs’ entitlements and a federal anti-corruption body.
He said it was “very unlikely” the government would reach 76 seats.
It’s going to rely on the crossbench for stability ... and we’re in quite a strong position collectively.
Asked about the prospect of passing a same-sex marriage bill instead of holding a plebiscite, Bandt said he thought the election result may prompt “a rethink within Liberal party about whether sending Australia people back for another vote is really the best thing to do”.
Updated
at 12.06am BST
11.07pm BST
23:07
Good morning and welcome to the #politicslive raft
We awake this morning to find Malcolm Turnbull glad-handing the crossbenchers as the Australian Electoral Commission continues the count. I will have some seat news to you shortly but, as of this morning, the AEC still has Forde, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Capricornia listed as close. All but Hindmarsh are Queensland seats which tells you a lot about why Bill Shorten spent so much time in that state.
The Liberal party, meanwhile, is suggesting the Coalition could form a bare majority. Malcolm Turnbull is taking out the insurance by meeting with the crossbenchers. Nick Xenophon went to Sydney yesterday and Turnbull is meeting Katter in Brisbane today.
Meanwhile Senator Cory Bernardi is trying to be helpful by forming the Australian Conservatives.
He told the Australian his priority was “to save the Liberal party”.
I sincerely hope the result of the movement is to be a conservative life raft and save the Liberals … It’s more important than ever that we unite Australian conservatives who share many views regardless of their party affiliation. If you believe in limited government, traditional values, defending our culture and heritage, lower taxes, a stronger nation, a stronger economy and plain old common sense then you have a lot in common with millions of others.
There is some worry inside the party that the conservatives cannot beat the ground armies on the progressive side of politics.
With that in mind, Katharine Murphy has been investigating the Labor campaign, digging into their campaign to see if the Liberal concerns are justified. Here are a few numbers from Murph’s story.
On the afternoon and evening of Thursday 30 June – 48 hours before Australian voters went to the polls – Labor’s field operation for the 2016 election campaign made 62,000 phone calls to voters in its targeted seats.
Let me repeat that. One afternoon and evening: 62,000 phone calls. In the final 72 hours of the campaign, Labor logged 50,000 individual conversations with voters in targeted seats.
The final push by Labor’s field operation was predicated on the judgment that one in four voters would only make up their minds in the final 72 hours, so that was the time when contacts with voters would be most productive.
Some more metrics. The Labor party’s national field operation for 2016 comprised 15,000 volunteers, the culmination of a recruitment drive that had gone on behind the scenes for the best part of three years.
Some of these people were party members. Some were more passive supporters – people recruited after interacting with the ALP on Facebook or some other social media site, following up with people who had signed petitions, or had sought to be on the party’s email contact list.
I would be interested to hear some more from readers, if they were involved with either campaigns, or those of minors/independents. Or if you were called by a real live person for a conversation before the election.
The big global story is the Chilcot report into Britain’s involvement in the Iraq war. Rest assured we are combing through the report for references to Australia’s involvement.
You can catch me on Twitter @gabriellechan or Facebook. Let’s press on.
