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| Australian election 2016: Malcolm Turnbull confident Coalition can govern in its own right– politics live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 1.17am BST | |
| 01:17 | |
| Brisbane champion, that's enough about you... | |
| I have more words from Malcolm Turnbull, who loves all members of the Liberal party. | |
| We have the full quotes now from Turnbull and that swing in Queensland he was talking about? It was a swing in Brisbane. He likened Brisbane’s MP Trevor Evans’ success to his own in Wentworth. And then, well, he turned the conversation to Me. | |
| You [Evans] were preselected late in the day, as you know, and this is a marginal seat, you’ve made it less marginal, I might say. And overtime you can build on that. | |
| I mean I did the same thing in Wentworth, actually. It was the most marginal seat in NSW in 2007 and now it’s got a solid majority. So over time the electors will get used to you, you know, and they will become even more fond of you. They will become even more fond of you than they are now. | |
| But the volunteers have done a great job so I want to thank you all for your effort. It is a very, very big achievement. Can I just add something else. It was particularly important in this election, it’s always important but our opponents ran a very, very aggressive ground campaign. Very aggressive ground campaign, you know, they had the big Medicare lie which was, you know, they were pushing very hard directly, you know, person to person, the robocalls and text messages and so forth. | |
| So we needed more than ever strong, grass roots support, strong support from volunteers on the ground and you guys delivered that and delivered it very, very effectively here in Brisbane where as you know we’ve had a swing to the party which is a phenomenal achievement. | |
| 1.03am BST | |
| 01:03 | |
| This is our latest summary from Ben Raue, our election analyst. | |
| 70 Coalition66 Labor2 Coalition likely to win (Chisholm and Cowper)2 Labor likely to win (Cowan and Hindmarsh)5 others5 extremely close (Capricornia, Flynn, Forde, Gilmore, Herbert) | |
| Updated | |
| at 1.04am BST | |
| 12.49am BST | |
| 00:49 | |
| Malcolm Turnbull has taken a leaf out of Bill Shorten’s book to do a victory lap of sorts around the Queen Street mall in Brisbane. He met with the new MP for Brisbane, Trevor Evans, the MP for Ryan, Jane Prentice, the MP for Bonner, Ross Vasta, and the MP for Bowman, Andrew Laming. They also had a lot of the volunteers and apropos Katharine Murphy’s piece, he notes that grassroots volunteers are the key to elections. | |
| He says the swing to the party was a phenomenal achievement in Brisbane. | |
| He says he is very confident that the Coalition can form a majority government in their own right. | |
| I am talking to crossbenchers as I would do regardless of what the numbers in the house amounted to. | |
| Updated | |
| at 1.13am BST | |
| 12.28am BST | 12.28am BST |
| 00:28 | 00:28 |
| Malcolm Turnbull is in Brisbane to meet Bob Katter and do a bit of a street walk with his triumphant members. Looks like Shorten is setting the vibe. | Malcolm Turnbull is in Brisbane to meet Bob Katter and do a bit of a street walk with his triumphant members. Looks like Shorten is setting the vibe. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.31am BST | at 12.31am BST |
| 12.23am BST | 12.23am BST |
| 00:23 | 00:23 |
| Phil Coorey of the Fin Review has called the election. | Phil Coorey of the Fin Review has called the election. |
| Malcolm Turnbull is assured of forming government – possibly in his own right – after two more seats fell the Coalition’s way and it two others swung its way. | Malcolm Turnbull is assured of forming government – possibly in his own right – after two more seats fell the Coalition’s way and it two others swung its way. |
| With the Coalition now sitting on 72 seats, which is four short of an absolute majority of 76, the prime minister, nevertheless, continued to prepare for a hung parliament by scheduling face-to-face meetings with lower-house independents ... | With the Coalition now sitting on 72 seats, which is four short of an absolute majority of 76, the prime minister, nevertheless, continued to prepare for a hung parliament by scheduling face-to-face meetings with lower-house independents ... |
| As minds inside the Coalition turn towards governing again, sources confirmed that Mr Turnbull, who lost three junior ministers at the election, is likely to promote up-and-coming conservatives Zed Seselja and Michael Sukkar, on the dual basis of merit and that their elevation will help ease the factional tensions that have exploded since the election. | As minds inside the Coalition turn towards governing again, sources confirmed that Mr Turnbull, who lost three junior ministers at the election, is likely to promote up-and-coming conservatives Zed Seselja and Michael Sukkar, on the dual basis of merit and that their elevation will help ease the factional tensions that have exploded since the election. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.30am BST | at 12.30am BST |
| 12.08am BST | 12.08am BST |
| 00:08 | 00:08 |
| Some more from the former Labor opposition leader Simon Crean’s address to the press club in 2003, on the Australian Politics website. | Some more from the former Labor opposition leader Simon Crean’s address to the press club in 2003, on the Australian Politics website. |
| As I speak, we are a nation on the brink of war. | As I speak, we are a nation on the brink of war. |
| A war we should not be in. | A war we should not be in. |
| A war to which 2000 of our fighting men and women were committed many months ago but were told about last Tuesday. | A war to which 2000 of our fighting men and women were committed many months ago but were told about last Tuesday. |
| A war to which we are one of only four countries prepared to join the US in putting troops on the ground, despite claims of a coalition of up to 30. | A war to which we are one of only four countries prepared to join the US in putting troops on the ground, despite claims of a coalition of up to 30. |
| A war which, for the first time in our history, Australia has joined as an aggressor. | A war which, for the first time in our history, Australia has joined as an aggressor. |
| Not because we are directly threatened. | Not because we are directly threatened. |
| Not because the UN has determined it. | Not because the UN has determined it. |
| But because the US asked us to. | But because the US asked us to. |
| And he made this point: | And he made this point: |
| The war is wrong because resolution 1441 does not allow a unilateral attack | The war is wrong because resolution 1441 does not allow a unilateral attack |
| One of John Howard’s excuses for this war is the claim that resolution 1441 authorises a unilateral attack on Iraq. | One of John Howard’s excuses for this war is the claim that resolution 1441 authorises a unilateral attack on Iraq. |
| It does no such thing. | It does no such thing. |
| Resolution 1441 was passed on the specific promise that the matter would be returned to the security council for decision about any military action to enforce it. | Resolution 1441 was passed on the specific promise that the matter would be returned to the security council for decision about any military action to enforce it. |
| It unanimously set out a process for disarming Iraq through the UN. It said that: | It unanimously set out a process for disarming Iraq through the UN. It said that: |
| The resolution would never have received unanimous approval if it gave authorised military action without a further resolution. | The resolution would never have received unanimous approval if it gave authorised military action without a further resolution. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.11am BST | at 12.11am BST |
| 11.51pm BST | 11.51pm BST |
| 23:51 | 23:51 |
| The prime minister loves all members of the Liberal party | The prime minister loves all members of the Liberal party |
| The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, and the cabinet secretary, Arthur Sinodinos, have spoken on Radio National on their regular program The Crunch. | The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, and the cabinet secretary, Arthur Sinodinos, have spoken on Radio National on their regular program The Crunch. |
| Asked about Cory Bernardi’s moves to organise a grassroots conservative movement, Sinodinos explained Bernardi is trying to “mobilise activists on our own side to help counter” progressive groups such as GetUp. | Asked about Cory Bernardi’s moves to organise a grassroots conservative movement, Sinodinos explained Bernardi is trying to “mobilise activists on our own side to help counter” progressive groups such as GetUp. |
| The other part of what he’s saying is that he wants more love from the prime minister. My message to Cory is the prime minister loves all members of the Liberal party. And, often the irony here, is that the prime minister gets accused on one level by Labor of embracing the right of the party too much and then others say he’s not embracing them enough. | The other part of what he’s saying is that he wants more love from the prime minister. My message to Cory is the prime minister loves all members of the Liberal party. And, often the irony here, is that the prime minister gets accused on one level by Labor of embracing the right of the party too much and then others say he’s not embracing them enough. |
| Sinodinos said the Liberal party is a “broad church” and Turnbull is “the right sort of leader” to straddle the liberal and conservative wing of the Liberal party. | Sinodinos said the Liberal party is a “broad church” and Turnbull is “the right sort of leader” to straddle the liberal and conservative wing of the Liberal party. |
| Host Fran Kelly asked whether one in four Australians voting for minor parties or independents is “the new normal”. Bowen explained it was caused by less ingrained loyalty to the major parties. | Host Fran Kelly asked whether one in four Australians voting for minor parties or independents is “the new normal”. Bowen explained it was caused by less ingrained loyalty to the major parties. |
| This is not a new thing that people are less tied to their family’s political tradition. A few decades ago, you voted the same way as your parents and it was passed on from generation to generation. That doesn’t happen any more, and that’s a good thing. It means people are going through the process of determining the right approach for the future of the nation. | This is not a new thing that people are less tied to their family’s political tradition. A few decades ago, you voted the same way as your parents and it was passed on from generation to generation. That doesn’t happen any more, and that’s a good thing. It means people are going through the process of determining the right approach for the future of the nation. |
| Sinodinos said the electorate “is becoming more fragmented over time, but any government that listens will be rewarded”. | Sinodinos said the electorate “is becoming more fragmented over time, but any government that listens will be rewarded”. |
| Both say that stable majority government is still possible in the Australian political system but, unsurprisingly, Sinodinos thinks the Coalition will do so this time, and Bowen does not. | Both say that stable majority government is still possible in the Australian political system but, unsurprisingly, Sinodinos thinks the Coalition will do so this time, and Bowen does not. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.03am BST | at 12.03am BST |
| 11.42pm BST | 11.42pm BST |
| 23:42 | 23:42 |
| Ed Husic has told Sky that Bill Shorten will remain leader. | Ed Husic has told Sky that Bill Shorten will remain leader. |
| 11.36pm BST | 11.36pm BST |
| 23:36 | 23:36 |
| Labor caucus to meet on Friday | Labor caucus to meet on Friday |
| Katharine Murphy | Katharine Murphy |
| Morning everyone, just a quick look forward. The Labor caucus meets in Canberra on Friday for the first time since the election. Given Anthony Albanese has now retreated, Bill Shorten appears to be the only candidate for the Labor leadership. I’ll need to check the new rules for election of the leader. I haven’t had a chance to do that yet but the party may still have to open nominations for a period of time as a formality. I’ll check that during the course of the day and let you know. Onwards. Upwards. | Morning everyone, just a quick look forward. The Labor caucus meets in Canberra on Friday for the first time since the election. Given Anthony Albanese has now retreated, Bill Shorten appears to be the only candidate for the Labor leadership. I’ll need to check the new rules for election of the leader. I haven’t had a chance to do that yet but the party may still have to open nominations for a period of time as a formality. I’ll check that during the course of the day and let you know. Onwards. Upwards. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.04am BST | at 12.04am BST |
| 11.34pm BST | 11.34pm BST |
| 23:34 | 23:34 |
| Julie Bishop’s argument is misleading. The opposition leader at the time of the 2003 Iraq war was Simon Crean. There was an argument within Labor about the war but his stance was clear. This is the top of his speech in reply in parliament: | Julie Bishop’s argument is misleading. The opposition leader at the time of the 2003 Iraq war was Simon Crean. There was an argument within Labor about the war but his stance was clear. This is the top of his speech in reply in parliament: |
| The statement by the prime minister is his argument for war, not a plan for peace. | The statement by the prime minister is his argument for war, not a plan for peace. |
| It only took the prime minister until only the second page of his statement to conclude that the only possible outcome is war. | It only took the prime minister until only the second page of his statement to conclude that the only possible outcome is war. |
| There are several things on which we agree. | There are several things on which we agree. |
| Our total support for the brave men women of the Australian defence forces and their families. | Our total support for the brave men women of the Australian defence forces and their families. |
| Non-proliferation is a critical security issue. | Non-proliferation is a critical security issue. |
| Saddam Hussein must disarm. | Saddam Hussein must disarm. |
| The issue of Iraq cannot be seen in isolation from the broader security issues that confront the Middle East, particularly the need for peace in Israel and Palestine. | The issue of Iraq cannot be seen in isolation from the broader security issues that confront the Middle East, particularly the need for peace in Israel and Palestine. |
| The authority of the UN must be upheld. | The authority of the UN must be upheld. |
| But this statement is a justification for war, not a plan to secure the peace, and it is on this point that the prime minister and I fundamentally disagree. | But this statement is a justification for war, not a plan to secure the peace, and it is on this point that the prime minister and I fundamentally disagree. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.49pm BST | at 11.49pm BST |
| 11.24pm BST | 11.24pm BST |
| 23:24 | 23:24 |
| Julie Bishop on Chilcot: it was the best information at the time | Julie Bishop on Chilcot: it was the best information at the time |
| The foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, has responded to the Chilcot report. She said the then Howard government (of which she was a backbench member) had made the decision on the best information available at the time. | The foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, has responded to the Chilcot report. She said the then Howard government (of which she was a backbench member) had made the decision on the best information available at the time. |
| Well it was based on information, the best information at the time. I was in the party room. I recall the information that was presented to us. It was the best information that was available and we took a decision at the time. Of course the government takes responsibility for all decisions that a government takes and we take responsibility for this one. | Well it was based on information, the best information at the time. I was in the party room. I recall the information that was presented to us. It was the best information that was available and we took a decision at the time. Of course the government takes responsibility for all decisions that a government takes and we take responsibility for this one. |
| David Koch: Can we expect an apology, do you think an apology is needed? | David Koch: Can we expect an apology, do you think an apology is needed? |
| That’s a matter for John Howard but the Australian government, both Labor and Liberal, the Australian parliament would take responsibility. I recall very well at the time Kevin Rudd urging us to continue to support the United States so it was a bipartisan position. | That’s a matter for John Howard but the Australian government, both Labor and Liberal, the Australian parliament would take responsibility. I recall very well at the time Kevin Rudd urging us to continue to support the United States so it was a bipartisan position. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.05am BST | at 12.05am BST |
| 11.15pm BST | 11.15pm BST |
| 23:15 | 23:15 |
| Adam Bandt predicts Coalition will not reach 76 seats | Adam Bandt predicts Coalition will not reach 76 seats |
| The Greens MP Adam Bandt has been speaking on ABC’s Radio National. | The Greens MP Adam Bandt has been speaking on ABC’s Radio National. |
| Bandt conceded the Greens are “very disappointed” to have lost South Australian senator Robert Simms as the party’s parliamentary representation went backwards for the first time in 18 years. | Bandt conceded the Greens are “very disappointed” to have lost South Australian senator Robert Simms as the party’s parliamentary representation went backwards for the first time in 18 years. |
| But Bandt was upbeat about the fact the Greens were “knocking on the door of winning more lower-house seats” in Melbourne. | But Bandt was upbeat about the fact the Greens were “knocking on the door of winning more lower-house seats” in Melbourne. |
| Bandt trumpeted the party’s “tremendous achievements”, including his re-election with an increased vote in Melbourne, a 10% swing in Batman and coming within a few points of winning in Batman, Wills and Melbourne Ports (well, a few points short of Labor with a hope of overtaking the Liberals to win). | Bandt trumpeted the party’s “tremendous achievements”, including his re-election with an increased vote in Melbourne, a 10% swing in Batman and coming within a few points of winning in Batman, Wills and Melbourne Ports (well, a few points short of Labor with a hope of overtaking the Liberals to win). |
| To win a seat in the lower house against the combined might of Labor and Liberals, the two-party closed shop of politics, is a difficult thing to do. | To win a seat in the lower house against the combined might of Labor and Liberals, the two-party closed shop of politics, is a difficult thing to do. |
| Bandt also talked up the prospect of progressive reforms in the new parliament including the crossbenchers pushing for democratic reform on political donations, MPs’ entitlements and a federal anti-corruption body. | Bandt also talked up the prospect of progressive reforms in the new parliament including the crossbenchers pushing for democratic reform on political donations, MPs’ entitlements and a federal anti-corruption body. |
| He said it was “very unlikely” the government would reach 76 seats. | He said it was “very unlikely” the government would reach 76 seats. |
| It’s going to rely on the crossbench for stability ... and we’re in quite a strong position collectively. | It’s going to rely on the crossbench for stability ... and we’re in quite a strong position collectively. |
| Asked about the prospect of passing a same-sex marriage bill instead of holding a plebiscite, Bandt said he thought the election result may prompt “a rethink within Liberal party about whether sending Australia people back for another vote is really the best thing to do”. | Asked about the prospect of passing a same-sex marriage bill instead of holding a plebiscite, Bandt said he thought the election result may prompt “a rethink within Liberal party about whether sending Australia people back for another vote is really the best thing to do”. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.06am BST | at 12.06am BST |
| 11.07pm BST | 11.07pm BST |
| 23:07 | 23:07 |
| Good morning and welcome to the #politicslive raft | Good morning and welcome to the #politicslive raft |
| We awake this morning to find Malcolm Turnbull glad-handing the crossbenchers as the Australian Electoral Commission continues the count. I will have some seat news to you shortly but, as of this morning, the AEC still has Forde, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Capricornia listed as close. All but Hindmarsh are Queensland seats which tells you a lot about why Bill Shorten spent so much time in that state. | We awake this morning to find Malcolm Turnbull glad-handing the crossbenchers as the Australian Electoral Commission continues the count. I will have some seat news to you shortly but, as of this morning, the AEC still has Forde, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Capricornia listed as close. All but Hindmarsh are Queensland seats which tells you a lot about why Bill Shorten spent so much time in that state. |
| The Liberal party, meanwhile, is suggesting the Coalition could form a bare majority. Malcolm Turnbull is taking out the insurance by meeting with the crossbenchers. Nick Xenophon went to Sydney yesterday and Turnbull is meeting Katter in Brisbane today. | The Liberal party, meanwhile, is suggesting the Coalition could form a bare majority. Malcolm Turnbull is taking out the insurance by meeting with the crossbenchers. Nick Xenophon went to Sydney yesterday and Turnbull is meeting Katter in Brisbane today. |
| Meanwhile Senator Cory Bernardi is trying to be helpful by forming the Australian Conservatives. | Meanwhile Senator Cory Bernardi is trying to be helpful by forming the Australian Conservatives. |
| He told the Australian his priority was “to save the Liberal party”. | He told the Australian his priority was “to save the Liberal party”. |
| I sincerely hope the result of the movement is to be a conservative life raft and save the Liberals … It’s more important than ever that we unite Australian conservatives who share many views regardless of their party affiliation. If you believe in limited government, traditional values, defending our culture and heritage, lower taxes, a stronger nation, a stronger economy and plain old common sense then you have a lot in common with millions of others. | I sincerely hope the result of the movement is to be a conservative life raft and save the Liberals … It’s more important than ever that we unite Australian conservatives who share many views regardless of their party affiliation. If you believe in limited government, traditional values, defending our culture and heritage, lower taxes, a stronger nation, a stronger economy and plain old common sense then you have a lot in common with millions of others. |
| There is some worry inside the party that the conservatives cannot beat the ground armies on the progressive side of politics. | There is some worry inside the party that the conservatives cannot beat the ground armies on the progressive side of politics. |
| With that in mind, Katharine Murphy has been investigating the Labor campaign, digging into their campaign to see if the Liberal concerns are justified. Here are a few numbers from Murph’s story. | With that in mind, Katharine Murphy has been investigating the Labor campaign, digging into their campaign to see if the Liberal concerns are justified. Here are a few numbers from Murph’s story. |
| On the afternoon and evening of Thursday 30 June – 48 hours before Australian voters went to the polls – Labor’s field operation for the 2016 election campaign made 62,000 phone calls to voters in its targeted seats. | On the afternoon and evening of Thursday 30 June – 48 hours before Australian voters went to the polls – Labor’s field operation for the 2016 election campaign made 62,000 phone calls to voters in its targeted seats. |
| Let me repeat that. One afternoon and evening: 62,000 phone calls. In the final 72 hours of the campaign, Labor logged 50,000 individual conversations with voters in targeted seats. | Let me repeat that. One afternoon and evening: 62,000 phone calls. In the final 72 hours of the campaign, Labor logged 50,000 individual conversations with voters in targeted seats. |
| The final push by Labor’s field operation was predicated on the judgment that one in four voters would only make up their minds in the final 72 hours, so that was the time when contacts with voters would be most productive. | The final push by Labor’s field operation was predicated on the judgment that one in four voters would only make up their minds in the final 72 hours, so that was the time when contacts with voters would be most productive. |
| Some more metrics. The Labor party’s national field operation for 2016 comprised 15,000 volunteers, the culmination of a recruitment drive that had gone on behind the scenes for the best part of three years. | Some more metrics. The Labor party’s national field operation for 2016 comprised 15,000 volunteers, the culmination of a recruitment drive that had gone on behind the scenes for the best part of three years. |
| Some of these people were party members. Some were more passive supporters – people recruited after interacting with the ALP on Facebook or some other social media site, following up with people who had signed petitions, or had sought to be on the party’s email contact list. | Some of these people were party members. Some were more passive supporters – people recruited after interacting with the ALP on Facebook or some other social media site, following up with people who had signed petitions, or had sought to be on the party’s email contact list. |
| I would be interested to hear some more from readers, if they were involved with either campaigns, or those of minors/independents. Or if you were called by a real live person for a conversation before the election. | I would be interested to hear some more from readers, if they were involved with either campaigns, or those of minors/independents. Or if you were called by a real live person for a conversation before the election. |
| The big global story is the Chilcot report into Britain’s involvement in the Iraq war. Rest assured we are combing through the report for references to Australia’s involvement. | The big global story is the Chilcot report into Britain’s involvement in the Iraq war. Rest assured we are combing through the report for references to Australia’s involvement. |
| You can catch me on Twitter @gabriellechan or Facebook. Let’s press on. | You can catch me on Twitter @gabriellechan or Facebook. Let’s press on. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.08am BST | at 12.08am BST |