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US election: Trump and Clinton in tight race on campaign's final day – live US election: Trump and Clinton in tight race on campaign's final day – as it happened
(35 minutes later)
10.03am GMT
10:03
That’s it for this blog and the campaign. Our New York team is up early for a polling day blog.
10.00am GMT
10:00
Hillary Clinton has a 70% chance of winning the election, according to a polling-day email from the respected pollster Nate Silver.
That’s up from a 65% chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign. Clinton’s projected margin of victory in the popular vote has increased to 3.5% from 2.9%.
As a lot of you noticed, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida flipped from red to blue over the course of Monday. We don’t think that’s a particularly meaningful metric, because the forecasts are probabilistic — Clinton’s chances of winning Florida increased to 54% from 48%, for instance, which is nontrivial but not an especially large change. Still, we know it’s something a lot of readers follow. It’s unlikely that any further states will flip to Clinton in our final forecast, as she’s too far behind in Ohio, the next-closest state. It’s possible that Florida and North Carolina could flip back to Trump by tomorrow morning, though probably not Nevada, where Clinton’s lead is a bit larger.
9.45am GMT
09:45
Who is to blame for not stopping Trump sooner?
Few suspects spared a mention in Jonathan Freedland’s hall of shame. They include the other Republican presidential candidates such as Jeb Bush, Marco and Ted Cruz who “allowed themselves to be streamrollered by a reality TV host and serially bankrupted businessman”. But also “Trump’s trio of enablers: Rudy Giuliani, Chris Christie and Newt Gingrich.”
Those three horsemen of the Republican apocalypse conspired in the lie that a snake-oil salesman was fit to be president – and destroyed what remained of their reputations in the process.
Plus Trump’s running mate Mike Pence: “the defender of family values who has served as the running mate of a thrice-married, serially adulterous, self-confessed grabber of women.”
Freedland also rounds on the “indulgence on a epic scale” of the media. And there are cameos for Julian Assange and Vladimir Putin.
And finally there’s a dig at the US electorate:
Some blame surely attaches to the Americans who let Trump keep up the bullying and the bigotry and voted for him anyway. There is no escaping the fact that north of 40% of the US electorate have been prepared to vote for Trump despite everything that he has said and done. One poll found 22% of Trump’s own supporters believed he would start a nuclear war. They thought that, but were prepared to vote for him anyway. None of them will be able to say: “We didn’t know.”
9.09am GMT9.09am GMT
09:0909:09
Here’s video of Hillary Clinton’s star-studded final campaign rally. Lady Gaga and Bon Jovi were on hand to sing Living on a Prayer before introducing the Democratic candidate.Here’s video of Hillary Clinton’s star-studded final campaign rally. Lady Gaga and Bon Jovi were on hand to sing Living on a Prayer before introducing the Democratic candidate.
9.01am GMT9.01am GMT
09:0109:01
Unlike the Clinton campaign, Trump and his team chose not to pose for pictures as his plane returned from his final rally, notes AP’s Jill Colvin.Unlike the Clinton campaign, Trump and his team chose not to pose for pictures as his plane returned from his final rally, notes AP’s Jill Colvin.
Meanwhile... Trump's plane has landed at a different airport than the traveling press. https://t.co/6nt20WLkr5Meanwhile... Trump's plane has landed at a different airport than the traveling press. https://t.co/6nt20WLkr5
Speaking to a packed crowd in a community college gymnasium in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Trump outlined his closing message that “this election will decide whether we are ruled by a corrupt political class or by yourselves, the people”.Speaking to a packed crowd in a community college gymnasium in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Trump outlined his closing message that “this election will decide whether we are ruled by a corrupt political class or by yourselves, the people”.
8.50am GMT8.50am GMT
08:5008:50
Sabrina Siddiqui reports on Clinton’s biggest closing rally in Philadelphia – Obama, Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bon Jovi and all.Sabrina Siddiqui reports on Clinton’s biggest closing rally in Philadelphia – Obama, Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bon Jovi and all.
8.46am GMT8.46am GMT
08:4608:46
Hillary Clinton emerges from the plane with Bill at her side. Wearing bright red she waves at her supporters with both red-gloved hands. She also claps and looks very chipper.Hillary Clinton emerges from the plane with Bill at her side. Wearing bright red she waves at her supporters with both red-gloved hands. She also claps and looks very chipper.
"Fight Song" blares as Clinton steps off the plane pic.twitter.com/8pODcntYJG"Fight Song" blares as Clinton steps off the plane pic.twitter.com/8pODcntYJG
8.38am GMT8.38am GMT
08:3808:38
Matthew WeaverMatthew Weaver
Hillary Clinton’s campaign plane has just returned home to Westchester County Airport in New York, after her final rally in Raleigh, North Carolina.Hillary Clinton’s campaign plane has just returned home to Westchester County Airport in New York, after her final rally in Raleigh, North Carolina.
CNN has live footage of members of her campaign team staggering off the plane. It also showed Bill Clinton milling about in the plane at the top of the steps.CNN has live footage of members of her campaign team staggering off the plane. It also showed Bill Clinton milling about in the plane at the top of the steps.
The scene in White Plains as Hillary Clinton lands after her final campaign flight. "Welcome home," supporters chant pic.twitter.com/0OWiuO0eF7The scene in White Plains as Hillary Clinton lands after her final campaign flight. "Welcome home," supporters chant pic.twitter.com/0OWiuO0eF7
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.03am GMTat 9.03am GMT
8.28am GMT8.28am GMT
08:2808:28
(Some) votes counted(Some) votes counted
Election day has been and gone for three small towns in New Hampshire, which – thanks to the quirks of the electoral system – count their votes as soon as the clock strikes midnight. If anyone still uses striking clocks any more.Election day has been and gone for three small towns in New Hampshire, which – thanks to the quirks of the electoral system – count their votes as soon as the clock strikes midnight. If anyone still uses striking clocks any more.
The turnouts weren’t huge numbers-wise, but then again, nor are the populations.The turnouts weren’t huge numbers-wise, but then again, nor are the populations.
Caution: read nothing into these results.Caution: read nothing into these results.
Dixville NotchDixville Notch
Hillary Clinton: 4 votesHillary Clinton: 4 votes
Donald Trump: 2 votesDonald Trump: 2 votes
Gary Johnson: 1 voteGary Johnson: 1 vote
Mitt Romney (write-in): 1 voteMitt Romney (write-in): 1 vote
MillsfieldMillsfield
Trump: 16Trump: 16
Clinton: 4Clinton: 4
Bernie Sanders (write-in): 1Bernie Sanders (write-in): 1
Hart’s LocationHart’s Location
Clinton: 17Clinton: 17
Trump: 14Trump: 14
Johnson: 3Johnson: 3
Sanders (write-in): 2Sanders (write-in): 2
John Kasich/Sanders (write-in): 1John Kasich/Sanders (write-in): 1
8.19am GMT8.19am GMT
08:1908:19
If you’re wondering how the stock markets are reacting to election day, Graeme Wearden has you covered over on the business live blog:If you’re wondering how the stock markets are reacting to election day, Graeme Wearden has you covered over on the business live blog:
8.00am GMT8.00am GMT
08:0008:00
Latest election pollsLatest election polls
Where are the polls as the US tips into election day (nearly there on the west coast too now)?Where are the polls as the US tips into election day (nearly there on the west coast too now)?
FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 70.9% chance of winning:FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 70.9% chance of winning:
ur latest polls-only forecast gives Clinton a 71% chance to win the presidency: https://t.co/2uB2oq8m9u pic.twitter.com/2dwG069PPfur latest polls-only forecast gives Clinton a 71% chance to win the presidency: https://t.co/2uB2oq8m9u pic.twitter.com/2dwG069PPf
The Reuters/Ipsos state of the nation study puts Clinton on a 90% likelihood of victory.The Reuters/Ipsos state of the nation study puts Clinton on a 90% likelihood of victory.
Votes-wise, the New York Times sees Clinton on 46% and Trump on 42.9%.Votes-wise, the New York Times sees Clinton on 46% and Trump on 42.9%.
Real Clear Politics four-way national average – that is, including fringe candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein – also puts Clinton ahead, but by only 2.2 percentage points.Real Clear Politics four-way national average – that is, including fringe candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein – also puts Clinton ahead, but by only 2.2 percentage points.
A BBC poll of polls gives her a slightly more comfortable cushion of 48% v 44%.A BBC poll of polls gives her a slightly more comfortable cushion of 48% v 44%.
As ever, read Mona Chalabi on the polls and what they are/aren’t telling you:As ever, read Mona Chalabi on the polls and what they are/aren’t telling you:
7.25am GMT
07:25
Sabrina Siddiqui
The nation’s first black president has urged US citizens to send the first woman to the White House in their 240-year history.
As the light emanated from Independence Hall in Philadelphia, the building where the Founding Fathers signed the Declaration of Independence, Barack Obama stood before the people who had braved a chilly Monday night and passed the torch to his preferred successor.
“I’m asking you to vote for this woman, this mother, this grandmother, to be the next president of the United States,” Obama said.
It was the largest event of Clinton’s 18-month campaign, drawing 33,000 inside the square. Obama’s voice reverberated to the surrounding streets from speakers positioned for the thousands who could not gain entry but looked on from outside. All told, an estimated 40,000 had descended upon the area hoping to bear witness to the climax of a gruelling 18-month election cycle.
Michelle Obama, who has emerged unexpectedly as Clinton’s most powerful surrogate, implored voters to grasp that presidential elections were “breathtakingly close”.
“Tomorrow, with your vote, you can stand up to those who seek to divide us make us afraid,” the first lady said. “Tomorrow, with your vote, you can say that this country has always been great, that it is the greatest nation on earth.”
But it was unmistakably Clinton’s night. Mounting the podium, she threw up her arms and looked to the skies.
She had inched one step closer to cementing her place in history. To the jubilant supporters savouring the moment, she cautioned them that her fate remained in their hands.
“None of us, none of us,” Clinton said, “want to wake up on Wednesday morning and wish we had done more.”
Updated
at 7.27am GMT
7.10am GMT
07:10
Lauren Gambino and Madhvi Pankhania have relived the whole 2016 campaign (so you don’t have to) and distilled it to these … let’s say key moments, rather than highlights.
Perhaps your favourite/recurring nightmare is among them:
7.03am GMT
07:03
Obviously the big question of the day (for some people) is whether New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is voting for Trump.
Trump says he already has.
Brady says he hasn’t voted yet.
But Brady’s wife, model Gisele Bündchen, told a questioner on Instagram – three days ago, admittedly, that the couple were not backing Trump.
Who to believe?
Just throwing this out there. (Top comments.) pic.twitter.com/a3svMKTLGx
6.44am GMT
06:44
What happens next?
Those teeny New Hampshire midnight results aside, most polling stations won’t open till 6am earliest – just under four-and-a-half hours away for those on the US east coast.
Opening and closing times for polling stations vary a lot; this is a useful, if not straightforward guide to what closes when.
Results will start to be called from 7pm eastern time (midnight GMT; Australian readers, here’s your own guide to Wednesday timings). We might know a winner by midnight EST. We might get concession speeches by 2am EST.
Or it might all take a lot longer. We’ll be live blogging throughout, should you fancy some company.
6.31am GMT
06:31
You didn’t even have to hang around for hours waiting for a rally to start to catch a celebrity endorsement performance in the closing stretch of the campaign.
THIS IS LIKE AN ACTUAL PRAYER pic.twitter.com/jKVFQzNZTv
Madonna pitched up in Washington Square Park, NYC, to urge support for Clinton (“Save this country, vote for Hillary Clinton!”) and express herself – sorry – about Trump (“No way, motherfucker”).
The set list:
6.21am GMT
06:21
Tom Phillips
China’s official news agency has just put out its verdict on the “mud-slinging, insult-driven and scandal-ridden” US election – and it isn’t pretty.
The election, it says, shows “the darkest side of the political system [that] Washington intends to impose on the rest of the globe”.
Neither of the “very unscrupulous and incoherent” candidates comes out well from Xinhua’s take on the race for the White House. It describes them as “two of the least desirable candidates in perhaps the whole history of the US electoral politics”.
Xinhua says Trump is unlikely to deliver change while Clinton “has to hide or twist a long list of inconvenient facts she does not want the public to know”.
“The ballots are now being cast, and whatever the results might be, only troubles seem to be guaranteed, both for the United States and for the world,” it concludes.
Many people say it’s time to “pick your own poison.” Do you think the U.S. voters really have to choose between the lesser of the two evils?
6.15am GMT
06:15
A very good point from a reader below the line:
(Don’t vote tomorrow! Vote today. Trust me on this.)
Those on the West coast should not trust you on this!
Lets not have another national US election solely in EST, eh?
Vote at whatever point your part of the US reaches Tuesday 8 November!
6.11am GMT
06:11
Clinton wraps up with a “let’s go vote”.
It’s 1.10am ET. And – probably, because this election campaign has not been a great one for safe predictions – that’s the last rallying cry we’ll hear from either candidate this side of the results.
6.09am GMT
06:09
Trump is done. “Go to bed!” he tells his crowd.
Clinton is still going and so gets the last word. Some of them are about Lady Gaga again.
6.05am GMT
06:05
Trump:
You have one magnificent chance to beat this corrupt, rigged system.
Clinton:
It’s not just my name or Donald Trump’s name on the ballot – it’s the kind of country we want.