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US election: Trump and Clinton in tight race on campaign's final day – live
US election: Trump and Clinton in tight race on campaign's final day – live
(35 minutes later)
6.14pm GMT
18:14
North Carolina: voter suppression and African American turnout
Why is Hillary Clinton planning to hold a midnight rally in North Carolina after her bash with Bruce Springsteen and the Obamas in Philadelphia?
Democratic operative John Hagner notes that African American turnout in North Carolina has yet to materialize, with nearly 200,000 black voters who voted early in 2012 not having yet voted.
But nearly half of the voters in question voted in the midterms (2014) and 2016 primaries - which means they’ll vote tomorrow, in the general election. Right?
In NC: 197K African-Americans who voted early in 2012 haven't voted yet. But 86K of them voted in '14 or '16P. They're voters. They'll vote.
This is why our estimates haven't really budged on the black share of the electorate https://t.co/TKat7jZoDF
Terribly, North Carolina has been a capital this year for voter suppression, especially of Democratic and black voters. After the supreme court earlier this year struck down a voter restriction law passed by the North Carolina legislature, numerous Republican-controlled elections boards on the county level passed regulations cutting the number of polling stations and winnowing voting hours. Some of those measures, but not all, were overturned. That’s part of the reason for the long, long lines you’ve been seeing.
Seasoned Republican operative Stuart Stevens:
I remember - painfully - how we thought Gore was crazy to campaign at 2:am in FL. on election eve. 24 hours later, didn't seem so crazy. https://t.co/ZrI9bCDPDI
6.06pm GMT
18:06
Obama ends. Ann Arbor winds up some Bruce Springsteen. Will they place this one tonight (and by “they” we mean “the Boss himself”)? Land of Hope and Dreams:
Updated
at 6.07pm GMT
5.58pm GMT
17:58
That’s quite a “Yes we can” chant at the Obama rally in Ann Arbor. Crowd sounds very happy to see the president one last time in office.
5.55pm GMT
17:55
Here’s how the campaigns reacted to the announcement Sunday by the FBI that a new batch of emails linked to Hillary Clinton’s private email server “have not changed our conclusion” that she committed no criminal wrongdoing:
5.52pm GMT
17:52
Obama in Michigan: 'don't fall for the okey-doke'
“I think I’ve earned some credibility here,” Obama says in Michigan. He says that manufacturing jobs have come back.
“The auto industry has record sales. I think I’ve earned some credibility here,” he says:
When I tell you that Donald Trump is not the guy who’s going to look out for you, you’ve got to listen. Don’t be bamboozled. Don’t fall for the okey-doke.
5.49pm GMT
17:49
The scene in Pittsburgh:
A beautiful backdrop as Hillary Clinton takes the stage in Pittsburgh for the first rally on her final day of campaigning: pic.twitter.com/HkqDRAUYCp
5.47pm GMT
17:47
Here now is Barack Obama in Ann Arbor, Michigan:
5.30pm GMT
5.30pm GMT
17:30
17:30
Clinton is taking the stage in Pittsburgh. Scroll back a couple blocks for a live stream.
Clinton is taking the stage in Pittsburgh. Scroll back a couple blocks for a live stream.
5.19pm GMT
5.19pm GMT
17:19
17:19
Trump just might have a Latino voter problem in Florida.
Trump just might have a Latino voter problem in Florida.
+453.8K Latinos voted early in Florida, that's an increase of 86.9% compared to 2012
+453.8K Latinos voted early in Florida, that's an increase of 86.9% compared to 2012
Is that – is that a lot?https://t.co/qLMbXmqfRq
Is that – is that a lot?https://t.co/qLMbXmqfRq
5.16pm GMT
5.16pm GMT
17:16
17:16
Hillary Clinton is scheduled to hold her first event of the day, in Pittsburgh, shortly. Here’s a live stream:
Hillary Clinton is scheduled to hold her first event of the day, in Pittsburgh, shortly. Here’s a live stream:
5.12pm GMT
5.12pm GMT
17:12
17:12
UN climate talks open under shadow of US elections
UN climate talks open under shadow of US elections
UN talks to implement the landmark Paris climate pact opened in Marrakech on Monday, buoyed by gathering momentum but threatened by the spectre of climate change denier Donald Trump in the White House, AFP reports:
UN talks to implement the landmark Paris climate pact opened in Marrakech on Monday, buoyed by gathering momentum but threatened by the spectre of climate change denier Donald Trump in the White House, AFP reports:
Diplomats from 196 nations are meeting in Morocco to flesh out the planet-saving plan inked in the French capital last December.
Diplomats from 196 nations are meeting in Morocco to flesh out the planet-saving plan inked in the French capital last December.
“We have made possible what everyone said was impossible,” said French environment minister, Ségolène Royal, at the opening ceremony, in which she handed over stewardship of the climate forum to Moroccan foreign minister, Salaheddine Mezouar.
“We have made possible what everyone said was impossible,” said French environment minister, Ségolène Royal, at the opening ceremony, in which she handed over stewardship of the climate forum to Moroccan foreign minister, Salaheddine Mezouar.
Read further:
Read further:
5.08pm GMT
5.08pm GMT
17:08
17:08
The Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui is with Hillary Clinton today, while Ben Jacobs is on the road with Donald Trump... among other things amassing further entries for his amazing photo collection of Trump supporter’ T-shirts:
The Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui is with Hillary Clinton today, while Ben Jacobs is on the road with Donald Trump... among other things amassing further entries for his amazing photo collection of Trump supporter’ T-shirts:
Spotted at Trump rally in Sarasota pic.twitter.com/PHbXumPAoH
Spotted at Trump rally in Sarasota pic.twitter.com/PHbXumPAoH
The Weiner crisis for the Clinton campaign turned out to be nothing, the FBI director reassured the world on Sunday:
The Weiner crisis for the Clinton campaign turned out to be nothing, the FBI director reassured the world on Sunday:
The FBI has determined that a new batch of emails linked to Hillary Clinton’s private email server “have not changed our conclusion” that she committed no criminal wrongdoing, FBI director James Comey told congressional leaders in a letter on Sunday.
The FBI has determined that a new batch of emails linked to Hillary Clinton’s private email server “have not changed our conclusion” that she committed no criminal wrongdoing, FBI director James Comey told congressional leaders in a letter on Sunday.
4.57pm GMT
16:57
'End this misogynistic horror show'
Here’s Barbara Kingsolver, in an opinion piece for the Guardian:
When I was a girl of 11 I had an argument with my father that left my psyche maimed. It was about whether a woman could be the president of the US.
How did it even start? I was no feminist prodigy, just a shy kid who preferred reading to talking; politics weren’t my destiny. Probably, I was trying to work out what was possible for my category of person – legally, logistically – as one might ask which kinds of terrain are navigable for a newly purchased bicycle. Up until then, gender hadn’t darkened my mental doorway as I followed my older brother into our daily adventures wearing hand-me-down jeans.
But in adolescence it dawned on me I’d be spending my future as a woman, and when I looked around, alarm bells rang. My mother was a capable, intelligent, deeply unhappy woman who aspired to fulfilment as a housewife but clearly disliked the job. I saw most of my friends’ mothers packed into that same dreary boat. My father was a country physician, admired and rewarded for work he loved. In my primordial search for a life coach, he was the natural choice.
I probably started by asking him if girls could go to college, have jobs, be doctors, tentatively working my way up the ladder. His answers grew more equivocal until finally we faced off, Dad saying, “No” and me saying, “But why not?” A female president would be dangerous. His reasons vaguely referenced menstruation and emotional instability, innate female attraction to maternity and aversion to power, and a general implied ickyness that was beneath polite conversation.
I ended that evening curled in bed with my fingernails digging into my palms and a silent howl tearing through me that lasted hours and left me numb. The next day I saw life at a remove, as if my skull had been jarred. What changed for me was not a dashing of specific hopes, but an understanding of what my father – the person whose respect I craved – really saw when he looked at me. I was tainted. I would grow up to be a lesser person, confined to an obliquely shameful life.
Read the full piece here:
4.26pm GMT
16:26
Someone passes Trump onstage in Sarasota a Trump mask. “Nice head of hair, I’ll say that,” Trump quips.
Earlier in his speech, Trump was all, “rap music, what is that?”
Trump, on Jay-Z / Beyonce on Friday: "Were they talking or singing? I don't know. Maybe it was both."
Watch Trump’s speech live.
4.22pm GMT
16:22
The closing arguments
The Clinton campaign has just released a two-minute video making its closing argument to voters.
In the ad Clinton speaks straight to the camera, which draws closer and closer to her face, as a piano theme grows in volume and strings start to come in.
“I think we can all agree it’s been a long campaign,” she says. “It’s not just my name and my opponent’s name on the ballot. It’s the kind of country we want for our children and grandchildren. Is America dark and divisive, or hopeful and inclusive?”
It kind of looks like something you see if you go down the tunnel too close toward the light? But then the angel of mercy turns out to be Hillary Clinton? So you snap out of it and wake up blinking on the pavement, because heaven can wait?
Anyway. Here it is:
The Trump campaign released its version on Friday. Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta cracked on Sunday that it looks like something out of a Batman movie.
The difference in tone is unmistakable. So are the anti-Semitic overtones, which Josh Marshall at TPM wrote about yesterday:
From a technical and thematic perspective it’s a well made ad. It’s also packed with anti-Semitic dog whistles, anti-Semitic tropes and anti-Semitic vocabulary. I’m not even sure whether it makes sense to call them dog whistles. The four readily identifiable American bad guys in the ad are Hillary Clinton, George Soros (Jewish financier), Janet Yellen (Jewish Fed Chair) and Lloyd Blankfein (Jewish Goldman Sachs CEO).
Read further. And do watch:
4.11pm GMT
16:11
Trump is immediately onstage – right on time – in Sarasota, Florida. He’s just said the system is rigged and Hillary Clinton should not be allowed to run for president. “What’s happening is a disgrace... with what’s happening with our justice, our country is a laughingstock all over the world. They’re laughing.”
Trump says people should vote tomorrow. “That’s how you beat the rigging, folks.” But if it’s rigged....
Updated
at 4.12pm GMT
4.04pm GMT
16:04
Florida, Florida, Florida
The electoral map once again has appeared to arrange itself in such a way that all analysis, as if drained by the Mississippi watershed, has been drawn ineluctably south and east. (Except not to the delta.) (To Florida.) (...)
Florida. If Trump loses it it’s almost surely over for him, barring a miracle in the upper midwest involving for example both Michigan and Wisconsin (though together they amount to only 26 electoral votes against Florida’s 29).
Florida. Where Gore lost it by winning it. Where Obama topped 50% twice. Where Clinton has 39 more offices than Trump. Where nonwhite early voting is significantly up in Miami-Dade. Where Democrats appear to be holding reasonably close in Jacksonville. Where Republicans may do better than expected in Palm Beach...
Been wrong before, but it's hard to see a path for Trump if it's more diverse than 12 with t/o levels near 08. But that's where we're going
Florida’s complicated demographics – Republican retirees in the central state, Puerto Ricans around Orlando, tea-partiers in the panhandle, Cubans in Miami, undecideds in Tampa – immediately draw any discussion of the state’s general electoral disposition into an Everglades thicket of details. The good news: we may know earlier this year than usual which way Florida’s tilting. (In 2012, the state did not report results until four days after election day.)
Giving the high early vote totals in both FL and NC, we're going to know fairly early on whether Clinton has won or Trump still has a shot.
Steve Schale is a Democratic analyst who ran Florida operations for Obama in 2008. He sees low-propensity Hispanic voters – meaning voters who weren’t judged especially likely to turn out – pushing the election in Clinton’s direction:
But two things emerged last week. One, this low propensity Hispanic thing became a thing. While Trump folks argued that Trump would turn out low propensity voters, we’d see slight edges for Democrats in this category. What became clear over days last week, this was a Hispanic deal, and as week 2 of early voting took hold, so did this surge. As of Saturday, Democrats had an edge of more than 175K low propensity voters.
Schale also sees serious strength for Clinton in Miami-Dade:
Dade is at 11.9% of all votes cast so far (should be 10.3%), and Broward is at 9.55%, where I had it pegged at 8.75%. The media market is a full two points bigger than it should be. If the Miami market finishes at 21.8% of all votes, this thing is cooked, and we will know it before 8:00 (assuming Miami decides to count all these ballots)
Schale sees Clinton “under-performing” in Palm Beach county, two counties north of Miami:
The red flag for Dems: Palm Beach. It is at 62% of its 2012 total, and it is also the county most “under-performing.” It should be about 7% of the state vote, but today it is about 5.9%. Of all the data points right now, this is the only one that concerns me. While Miami is more than making up for it, for HRC, win path is much easier with a more robust Palm Beach.
Here’s Schales conclusion:
I am going to write a wrap tomorrow for E-Day, but two questions I get a lot.
What am I worried about for HRC?
Really, almost nothing. I’ve mentioned the Palm Beach thing a few times, but right now, the diversity mix is rounding nicely into shape, and our best counties are way out-performing the state. Right now, she needs the organization on the ground to get this done on Tuesday
Could there be a Trump surge on Tuesday? It is possible, because the counties most under-performing right now are Trump counties. His problem, most of them are very small, part of what Jonathan Martin called the Gingrich Counties (where Newt beat Romney)-- those rural places in-between all the big counties.
All in all, the I-10 markets are way below where they should be, maybe as much as 3% below where its share should be. If that comes in tomorrow, it will tighten the race considerably.
Tomorrow’s memo will also lay out some things you watch for. If she wins by 3, we will know pretty well, probably before the Panhandle returns come back after 8. If it is close, prepare for a long night.
3.26pm GMT
15:26
She was 9 or 10 years old (depending on whether she falls in Aquarius-Leo or in Virgo-Capricorn) when the 19th amendment giving women the right to vote was ratified.
Desiline Victor, at 106 years old, is the oldest voter in #MiamiDade arrives at #NorthMiami to cast her vote #WeCareWeVote #MobilizeFlorida pic.twitter.com/PfPo7aeGRx
3.18pm GMT
15:18
Hi Grandma, what are you doing today?
Hillary Clinton has a granddaughter who just turned two, and a grandson who’s five months.
3.14pm GMT
15:14
Philly transit strike ends
If voters in Philadelphia, prime Democratic territory, don’t turn up at the polls tomorrow, they will not have a weeklong public transit strike to blame. Pennsylvania is not an early-voting state; access to the polls on game day is crucial.
The strike ended early Monday, AP reports:
The Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority and the union representing about 4,700 transit workers announced a tentative agreement early Monday.
Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority Board Chairman Pasquale Deon said it is a fair deal that provides “wage increases, pension improvements, and maintains health care coverage levels while addressing rising costs.”
The five-year deal is still subject to ratification by union members and must be approved by the SEPTA board.
The strike had really messed with traffic flow in the city:
The result has been traffic gridlock at morning and evening rush hours; jammed and delayed regional rail service and higher absenteeism at the city’s high schools. The troubles continued Monday morning despite the new deal, as commuters faced crowded roads and up to 30-minute delays on all regional rails due to signal problems.
2.46pm GMT
14:46
Last campaign stops: Michigan, Michigan... Pennsylvania?
Donald Trump has rallies planned in no fewer than five states today: Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Michigan. Live in the United States? Donald Trump is likely coming to a tarmac near you.
That culminating stop in Michigan – in Grand Rapids – jumps out, as further evidence of the Trump campaign belief that they can pick off a state that has fallen for the Democratic presidential candidate going back six elections.
Trump running mate Mike Pence also has five events today, but in only four states, because Pence is going to Michigan twice. He hits Traverse City in the early afternoon, zips off to Pennsylvania and New Hampshire and then circles back to join Trump in Grand Rapids.
Also in Michigan today: Barack Obama, visiting very blue Ann Arbor before he heads to New Hampshire.
Hillary Clinton is tending to Michigan today, too – and she’s going right to the heart of Republican support in the western state, visiting Ottawa county, which voted for Mitt Romney by 35 points in 2012. She also has a stop in Pittsburgh before kicking off her evening program.
About that evening program: the Clinton campaign announced that Bruce Springsteen would be appearing in an evening rally in Philadelphia, which also will include Barack and Michelle Obama and Bill and Chelsea Clinton.
Clinton running mate Tim Kaine will be in North Carolina and at home in Virginia, Al Gore will be in Colorado, and vice president Joe Biden is assigned to Florida.
1.23pm GMT
13:23
Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. The election’s tomorrow, and it’s time to make your predictions. Who’s going to win, and by how much?
US election: five scenarios
Will it be the Clinton Crush, the Trump Bank Shot, the Clinton Cliffhanger, the Al Gore, or the Make America Great Again? Read through five scenarios and see which one most closely fits your view. Or suggest a sixth!
Now click through to 270toWin to fill out your version of this map, feeling free of course to reject some of the basic calls we’ve made, such as Hillary Clinton claiming Nevada on the strength of early turnout by Latino voters, and Clinton claiming the upper midwestern states on the strength of polling and precedent. Or maybe Trump is obviously going to win Iowa, which we’ve not given him here?
Please share your results in the comments ... and we’ll be sharing ours. Today is a day for predictions, so when you’re done with that, weigh in on this little Twitter poll by Cook political report’s Dave Wasserman:
Is Hillary Clinton is likelier to carry...
Clinton and Trump are tied in NC , 44% to 44%, in the final NYT Upshot/Siena College poll. https://t.co/sH7ZQAjqiR
Over 40k more Dems than GOP voted on the last Sunday of early voting in Florida pic.twitter.com/ljxYV94ZB8
How much of the overall popular vote will Libertarian nominee (and pot enthusiast) Gary Johnson get?
@Redistrict It would be kinda neat if his final % of the vote was 4.20.
Janet Reno dies aged 78
Janet Reno, the first woman to serve as US attorney general, has died aged 78. AP:
Reno died early on Monday from complications associated with Parkinson’s disease, her goddaughter, Gabrielle D’Alemberte, said. D’Alemberte said Reno spent her final days at home in Miami surrounded by family and friends.
A former Miami prosecutor who famously told reporters “I don’t do spin,” Reno served nearly eight years as attorney general under President Bill Clinton, the longest stint in a century.
Read further:
We have a lot for you today – thanks for reading and please join us in the comments!
