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| Version 7 | Version 8 |
|---|---|
| US election: Trump and Clinton in tight race on campaign's final day – live | US election: Trump and Clinton in tight race on campaign's final day – live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 7.27pm GMT | |
| 19:27 | |
| This is a pretty cool visualization of early voting in Florida (h/t @jmartnyt). And if you’re Hillary Clinton, here’s something even cooler: Hispanic early voting is up 87% from 2012: | |
| This is how democracy happens in Florida. Every one of these 6,419,154 dots represents a real vote, by location and date. It is beautiful. pic.twitter.com/6g2GThleAb | |
| FL #earlyvote Race change vs 2012 via @electionsmithAfr-Am +70.6K (+9.2%)Hisp +453.8K (+86.9%)White +900K (+27.2%)Other +121.5K (+48.3%) | |
| “Right now, I think about 67% percent of the likely electorate has voted,” Florida soothsayer Steve Schale wrote Monday morning. That’s why Florida is expected to report earlier than usual this time (meaning not only on election day itself but actually early on Tuesday evening). | |
| 7.17pm GMT | |
| 19:17 | |
| Long lines bedevil determined voters | |
| Jessica Glenza | |
| It took Cristela Alonzo, a Latina comedian in Los Angeles, almost seven hours to vote this weekend. In Cincinnati, Ohio, a pivotal swing state, wait times were three hours on average. And in Raleigh, North Carolina, voters waited close to four hours over a half-mile long line at a state university. | |
| *ALMOST* this entire line outside @NCState to vote early just before the 1pm cut off. Everyone in a good mood - pizza is coming. pic.twitter.com/mn8AoJ4NOq | |
| Abysmally long early voting lines are not new in the US. They are, in fact, widespread and even predicted by some local officials. | |
| Since 2000, the popularity of early voting has increased from 12% of the electorate to an anticipated 40% this year, according to a CBS report of the AP Election Research Group. During that same time though, Republican-led legislatures have pushed back against early voting in Ohio, Arizona and Nebraska. | |
| Why? | |
| In-person early voting tends to benefit Democrats. In North Carolina, for example, 60% of black voters – a reliably Democratic group – cast early ballots, as opposed to 44% of white voters, according to the Institute for Southern Studies. | |
| Following the US Supreme Court’s dismantling of the Voting Rights Act, which required some southern states to get pre-approval of election law changes from the federal government, North Carolinian state representatives passed a law that eliminated early voting on one Sunday. In part, that move was designed to impact “souls to the polls” day, a powerful program that brings black churchgoers to vote after Sunday service. | |
| A judge struck down that state law in July, finding that it targeted African Americans “with almost surgical precision”. Nevertheless, three North Carolina counties still managed to limit early voting the Sunday before election day. | |
| Research from the Brennan Center for Justice on three states with the longest lines in 2012, Florida, Maryland and South Carolina, found that voters in urban areas tended to have fewer machines, less poll workers or both. More research cited by the center backs up findings that voters in Latino and African American districts tend to wait the longest (both constituencies lean Democratic). | |
| Just this spring, lines were so long in Arizona that voters of both parties were livid. Why? Republican state officials cut budgets for county officials, who in turn demanded cheap elections, which cut polling places. Democratic leaders tended to blame Republicans, who cut budgets. Arizona was another state that used to be required to seek pre-approval of election law changes under the Voting Rights Act. | |
| If politicians wanted to end long lines, experts say some simple recommendations could make a big impact. A January 2014 report called The American Voting Experience looked at ways that officials could predict and plan for voter turnout, after Floridians waited seven hours to vote for Barack Obama in 2012. | |
| They found that expanding early voting, online registration, new technologies and efficient polling place management could all help reduce and eliminate long wait times. | |
| So if you’re waiting in a long line, congratulate your fellow voters, and consider a letter to you local election commission. | |
| 7.00pm GMT | |
| 19:00 | |
| Obama picks up on report that aides confiscated Trump's Twitter | |
| Don’t miss this from the New York Times: Inside Donald Trump’s Last Stand: An Anxious Nominee Seeks Assurance. | |
| Among the juicy details: | |
| Aides to Mr. Trump have finally wrested away the Twitter account that he used to colorfully — and often counterproductively — savage his rivals. But offline, Mr. Trump still privately muses about all the ways he will punish his enemies after Election Day, including a threat to fund a “super PAC” with vengeance as its core mission. | |
| His polished older daughter, Ivanka, sat for a commercial intended to appeal to suburban women who have recoiled from her father’s incendiary language. But she discouraged the campaign from promoting the ad in news releases, fearing that her high-profile association with the campaign would damage the businesses that bear her name | |
| .@POTUS: If Trump's advisers don't trust him to tweet, "how can we trust him with the nuclear codes?" pic.twitter.com/GnO0Wz0lRU | |
| 6.58pm GMT | |
| 18:58 | |
| This New York Times / Siena College poll of North Carolina, which matched 2,400 respondents from three surveys to the state’s voter data, had Clinton up seven points a week ago. Now she’s up by one: | |
| Clinton 48.8, Trump 47.7 in the final North Carolina tracker, which now adds the data from our last poll https://t.co/YKXDPri6oq | |
| Cohn notes a fascinating dynamic of the race. Registered Democrats will outnumber registered Republicans. But Trump is expected to win a lot of support from white registered Democrats: | |
| There isn’t a realistic scenario in which registered Republicans would outnumber registered Democrats in the final count. That’s especially true in early voting, which is traditionally used more by Democrats than by Republicans. [...] | |
| So how is the race close? Well, our polling indicates that Mr. Trump will win considerable support from white registered Democrats, especially those who have not yet voted. | |
| Read further. | |
| 6.51pm GMT | 6.51pm GMT |
| 18:51 | 18:51 |
| Right. | Right. |
| Tomorrow: U.S. presidential election | Tomorrow: U.S. presidential election |
| 6.48pm GMT | 6.48pm GMT |
| 18:48 | 18:48 |
| How does Donald Trump lie? A fact checker's final guide | How does Donald Trump lie? A fact checker's final guide |
| Alan Yuhas | Alan Yuhas |
| Donald Trump lies like he tweets: erratically, at all hours, sometimes in malice and sometimes in self-contradiction, and sometimes without any apparent purpose at all. The Guardian has catalogued more than 100 falsehoods made by the Republican nominee over the last 150 days, and sorted them according to theme. | Donald Trump lies like he tweets: erratically, at all hours, sometimes in malice and sometimes in self-contradiction, and sometimes without any apparent purpose at all. The Guardian has catalogued more than 100 falsehoods made by the Republican nominee over the last 150 days, and sorted them according to theme. |
| Hillary Clinton has been caught in more than a dozen falsehoods of her own, for instance about her email practices and her past support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. But Clinton often makes her falsehoods in dense legalese, making them hard to pin a motive on: many could as easily be errors as lies, careless exaggeration or deliberately misleading claims. | Hillary Clinton has been caught in more than a dozen falsehoods of her own, for instance about her email practices and her past support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. But Clinton often makes her falsehoods in dense legalese, making them hard to pin a motive on: many could as easily be errors as lies, careless exaggeration or deliberately misleading claims. |
| Trump, on the other hand, will say “wrong” when he hears his own quotes. His own lawyers met him in pairs to counteract his lying, court documents show. He has invented false statistics, fictional videos and sex tapes and a nonexistent man named “John Miller” to talk about his sex life. Months of fact-checking, however, reveal methods and, whether he means to or not, Trump’s guide to success through lying. | Trump, on the other hand, will say “wrong” when he hears his own quotes. His own lawyers met him in pairs to counteract his lying, court documents show. He has invented false statistics, fictional videos and sex tapes and a nonexistent man named “John Miller” to talk about his sex life. Months of fact-checking, however, reveal methods and, whether he means to or not, Trump’s guide to success through lying. |
| Read further for a taxonomy of Trump’s lying, with categories including: Degrade and destroy; Embiggen big league; Shout at the messenger; Conspiracy smoke, fire not required; Deny everything; and Distortions. | Read further for a taxonomy of Trump’s lying, with categories including: Degrade and destroy; Embiggen big league; Shout at the messenger; Conspiracy smoke, fire not required; Deny everything; and Distortions. |
| 6.29pm GMT | 6.29pm GMT |
| 18:29 | 18:29 |
| Where. Is. Tiffany. | Where. Is. Tiffany. |
| NEW:A-list surrogates on last full day:IvankaDon JrEricLara TrumpGiuliani PalinSantorum BachmannFallinCarsonSessions Pierson | NEW:A-list surrogates on last full day:IvankaDon JrEricLara TrumpGiuliani PalinSantorum BachmannFallinCarsonSessions Pierson |
| 6.27pm GMT | 6.27pm GMT |
| 18:27 | 18:27 |
| “Wave of women voters elevates Trump to presidency” – the headlines in Donald Trump’s head, apparently. | “Wave of women voters elevates Trump to presidency” – the headlines in Donald Trump’s head, apparently. |
| "You know who is going to come out? The women. The women are going to come out big," Trump said in Sarasota, predicting battleground wins. | "You know who is going to come out? The women. The women are going to come out big," Trump said in Sarasota, predicting battleground wins. |
| 6.24pm GMT | 6.24pm GMT |
| 18:24 | 18:24 |
| A Michigan man in the know... | A Michigan man in the know... |
| Big surges in absentee ballot returns in Democratic counties during the weekend. | Big surges in absentee ballot returns in Democratic counties during the weekend. |
| However... | However... |
| Some positives for GOP in AVs too. Macomb up 8.2% in rate of ballots returned (8th among 83 MI counties). Livingston is 12th at 7.8%. | Some positives for GOP in AVs too. Macomb up 8.2% in rate of ballots returned (8th among 83 MI counties). Livingston is 12th at 7.8%. |
| Livingston county – Michigan’s richest, in suburban Detroit – went 23 points for Romney in 2012, when Obama won the state by 10 points. Macomb, a less tony Detroit suburb and home to the original “Reagan Democrats” – blue-collar workers who voted Republican – is thought to be fertile ground for Trump, Obama’s four-point win there in 2012 notwithstanding. | Livingston county – Michigan’s richest, in suburban Detroit – went 23 points for Romney in 2012, when Obama won the state by 10 points. Macomb, a less tony Detroit suburb and home to the original “Reagan Democrats” – blue-collar workers who voted Republican – is thought to be fertile ground for Trump, Obama’s four-point win there in 2012 notwithstanding. |
| (h/t @daveweigel) | (h/t @daveweigel) |
| 6.14pm GMT | 6.14pm GMT |
| 18:14 | 18:14 |
| North Carolina: voter suppression and African American turnout | North Carolina: voter suppression and African American turnout |
| Why is Hillary Clinton planning to hold a midnight rally in North Carolina after her bash with Bruce Springsteen and the Obamas in Philadelphia? | Why is Hillary Clinton planning to hold a midnight rally in North Carolina after her bash with Bruce Springsteen and the Obamas in Philadelphia? |
| Democratic operative John Hagner notes that African American turnout in North Carolina has yet to materialize, with nearly 200,000 black voters who voted early in 2012 not having yet voted. | Democratic operative John Hagner notes that African American turnout in North Carolina has yet to materialize, with nearly 200,000 black voters who voted early in 2012 not having yet voted. |
| But nearly half of the voters in question voted in the midterms (2014) and 2016 primaries - which means they’ll vote tomorrow, in the general election. Right? | But nearly half of the voters in question voted in the midterms (2014) and 2016 primaries - which means they’ll vote tomorrow, in the general election. Right? |
| In NC: 197K African-Americans who voted early in 2012 haven't voted yet. But 86K of them voted in '14 or '16P. They're voters. They'll vote. | In NC: 197K African-Americans who voted early in 2012 haven't voted yet. But 86K of them voted in '14 or '16P. They're voters. They'll vote. |
| This is why our estimates haven't really budged on the black share of the electorate https://t.co/TKat7jZoDF | This is why our estimates haven't really budged on the black share of the electorate https://t.co/TKat7jZoDF |
| Terribly, North Carolina has been a capital this year for voter suppression, especially of Democratic and black voters. After the supreme court earlier this year struck down a voter restriction law passed by the North Carolina legislature, numerous Republican-controlled elections boards on the county level passed regulations cutting the number of polling stations and winnowing voting hours. Some of those measures, but not all, were overturned. That’s part of the reason for the long, long lines you’ve been seeing. | Terribly, North Carolina has been a capital this year for voter suppression, especially of Democratic and black voters. After the supreme court earlier this year struck down a voter restriction law passed by the North Carolina legislature, numerous Republican-controlled elections boards on the county level passed regulations cutting the number of polling stations and winnowing voting hours. Some of those measures, but not all, were overturned. That’s part of the reason for the long, long lines you’ve been seeing. |
| Seasoned Republican operative Stuart Stevens: | Seasoned Republican operative Stuart Stevens: |
| I remember - painfully - how we thought Gore was crazy to campaign at 2:am in FL. on election eve. 24 hours later, didn't seem so crazy. https://t.co/ZrI9bCDPDI | I remember - painfully - how we thought Gore was crazy to campaign at 2:am in FL. on election eve. 24 hours later, didn't seem so crazy. https://t.co/ZrI9bCDPDI |
| 6.06pm GMT | 6.06pm GMT |
| 18:06 | 18:06 |
| Obama ends. Ann Arbor winds up some Bruce Springsteen. Will they place this one tonight (and by “they” we mean “the Boss himself”)? Land of Hope and Dreams: | Obama ends. Ann Arbor winds up some Bruce Springsteen. Will they place this one tonight (and by “they” we mean “the Boss himself”)? Land of Hope and Dreams: |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.07pm GMT | at 6.07pm GMT |